Evaluating the Future of Midcaps: How Much Pain Is Left....?Midcap Correction: How Much More Pain is Left..?
The midcap sector has experienced a significant correction, currently down approximately 18% amid the broader market downturn. This raises an important question: how much more pain is left for midcaps?
Historical Context and Market Correction :
If we look at past trends, this 18% to 20% correction is not unprecedented. A similar downturn occurred in 2022, when the midcap index was corrected by around 23.3%. Therefore, it’s important to remember that such market fluctuations are a normal part of the cycle and not something entirely new.
Primary Causes of the Correction :
Two key factors have contributed to the current market correction. Firstly, the high valuations of midcap stocks coupled with slower-than-expected earnings growth over the past two quarters have created pressure on prices. While there are other contributing factors, these two stand out as the primary drivers behind the recent downturn.
However, this correction may not persist for long. Looking ahead, earnings are expected to pick up in the coming quarters, fueled by an anticipated boost in consumption due to the new income tax bill presented in the latest budget. As a result, a combination of market correction and improving earnings growth could lay the foundation for a potential recovery and a return of the bull run.
Technical Support Levels and Future Outlook :
From a technical analysis standpoint, the midcap index is currently hovering around the 49,650 mark, which is a significant support level. Additionally, this price point coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, reinforcing its importance as a key technical support area. The broader Fibonacci golden zone, which spans from 50,180 to 46,800, also suggests that this range will provide strong support for the midcap index in the near term.
Given these technical factors, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the downside could be limited to around 5% more from the current level of 49,650. Beyond this range, the market may stabilize, and with expected earnings growth, we could witness a market rebound in the upcoming quarters.
Risks to Consider :
While the outlook for midcaps appears optimistic, investors should remain cautious. One major risk is the ongoing trade war, which continues to create significant uncertainty in global markets. Any escalation in trade tensions could weigh on the broader market, including midcaps, and introduce additional volatility.
Conclusion :
In summary, while the midcap index has experienced an 18% correction, this level of decline is not unprecedented, and there is potential for recovery. With strong earnings growth expected in the coming quarters and key technical support levels in place, the midcap sector could see a return to positive momentum. However, caution is advised, especially considering the uncertainties surrounding the trade war. Investors should keep an eye on these developments to navigate the market with caution and opportunity in mind.
Midcapindex
MIDCPNIFTY Breakdown – All Short Targets Hit on RisologicalMIDCPNIFTY 15m TimeFrame Technical Analysis:
In the 15-minute timeframe, MIDCPNIFTY has completed a powerful short trade, achieving all targets with consistent bearish pressure. The price has remained below the Risological dotted trendline, which acted as a strong resistance during the entire trade.
Key Levels:
Entry: 13,053.70
Stop Loss (SL): 13,139.35
Target 1 (TP1): 12,947.85 (Done)
Target 2 (TP2): 12,776.55 (Done)
Target 3 (TP3): 12,605.25 (Done)
Target 4 (TP4): 12,499.35 (Done)
Observations:
Price followed a steady downtrend with minimal pullbacks, respecting the Risological dotted trendline as resistance.
With strong bearish momentum, all targets were hit without any major retracement.
MIDCPNIFTY successfully met all its short targets, showing significant selling pressure. Traders should remain cautious for any signs of reversal or further downside as the trend matures.
MIDCAP NIFTY Rallies Strong! Long Trade Hits All TargetsMidcap Nifty has shown a solid uptrend following the entry at 12921.15 on 11th October at 12:15 PM, with the price successfully reaching all profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 12921.15 – The long trade was initiated at this level, supported by bullish momentum.
Stop-Loss (SL): 12891.70 – Positioned below recent support to protect against potential downside.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 12957.60 – The first target was achieved, confirming the upward move.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 13016.55 – Bullish pressure continued, leading to this level being reached.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 13075.50 – Further gains pushed the price to this target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 13111.90 – The final target, marking a successful rally in the long trade.
Trend Analysis
The price has consistently remained above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sustained upward movement suggests that market sentiment remains positive, supporting further gains beyond the final target.
The long trade on Midcap Nifty successfully hit all profit targets, with the final TP4 at 13111.90. The uptrend was well-supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, showcasing strong buying interest throughout the move.
MID CAP NIFTY - Target 3 done! Target 4 on the way?After getting a clear CE Buy side entry at 13,131 Mid Cap Nifty (MIDCPNIFTY) has hit the profit target 3 of this trade.
The reason why a lot of people lose in Options trading is because of lack of strategy and descipline.
There are time when Iam seduced to trade in 1m and 5m time frames because of crazy trade setups.
Ive made this mistake earlier in my trading life - FOMO and emotional imbalance (lol).
Now, for me Options trading is 15m time frame and this setup works pretty decent.
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Small 'n Furious. Early 2020's Signaling A Big Midcap Run AheadThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is about 2% compared to a 7% gain in the S&P 500.
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999, which was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for small caps.
As of January 31, 2024 small caps price-to-book ratio is 2.01, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet.
Like a sensationally increased shares of Supermicro NASDAQ:SMCI or e.l.f. Beauty Inc NYSE:ELF , I believe many other small cap stocks can be the best ideas for 2024, in part because of that participation in the ongoing stock market rally is improving and is no longer concentrated in just ultra-mega-cap tech stocks, like it was in 2023.
If so-called breadth improves in the stock market, then small cap stocks will catch a bid.
There are three factors will help to boost small-cap stocks in 2024.
First, fund flows into the stock market are necessary for small cap stocks to outperform. If retail funds aren't flowing into the stock market, then funds likely aren't flowing into small cap stocks.
That have changed already in late 2023 as investors start to warm up the stock market.
To be clear, let's take a look at lower technical graph, so-called "AUM", or AMEX:IWM assets under management chart, that is one of the most important ETFs metrics. While it's been correlated pretty well with IWM price action over the past two years, last December has changed the rule, as managed assets smartly jumped to almost historical highs.
Second, small cap stocks are highly levered and tend to have a higher cost of capital, so a decline or no more hikes in interest rates should benefit small cap stocks much more than large cap stocks.
To be clear, let's compare two graphs: for actual U.S. Interest Rate and Expected on Dec, 2024 Interest Rate.
Finally, an expansion in economic growth could be a "huge tailwind" for small cap stocks as they are highly exposed to the domestic economy.
An overlooked area of the stock market is set to soar in 2024 after significantly underperforming the S&P 500 last year.
In technical terms, AMEX:IWM graph is near to break its 52- and 104-weeks highs, to deliver the price 50 percent higher after a breakthrough, like it did it before, on the hottest ever edge of 2020 and 2021.
Mid-Cap Index is the index to watch out for.As we have discussed in previous educational messages. By selecting the indices that are looking strong we can get a range of stocks that can do well. From that basket of stocks you can then further scrutinize and select the stocks that might preform the best based on charts and fundamentals of the companies.
This week let us look at the Mid-Cap index that took a dramatic beating and is finding a support from where it can regain lost ground and even surpass the recent highs. Midcap Index made a high of 51342 before the descend began. The index has taken a support at the mid channel which also happens to be a trend line support. If the support or the low of Friday which was 48605 is not broken then we will see the comeback of Mid-cap stocks and index.
Resistance levels for the Mid-Cap index going forward will be 49545, 50132, 50425, 50802 and finally the previous high of 51342. The channel top seems to be near 52399 if the highs of 51342 are broken and sustained in future.
Support levels for the Mid-Cap index in case the support at 48605 is broken will be near 47952 or 46928 which seems to be the channel bottom. Choose wisely from the Mid-cap stock basket while keeping an eye on the levels mentioned here. Happy Investing.
All INDEX key levels for March 18, 2024 #Nifty #BankNiftyAll INDEX key levels for March 18, 2024 #Nifty #BankNifty
Overview:
Today's trading session presented significant opportunities within the Bank Nifty index and we executed the trades based on the levels published yesterday on tradingview and we were able to capture the Fall of 500 points in BankNifty
Here are the key levels to watch for potential entry and exit points in
BANKNIFTY
Resistance Levels:
- Refer the Red line on the chart
Support Levels:
- Refer the Green line on the chart
Trading Strategy:
- Long Position:
Consider initiating long positions near support levels only after reversal confirmation for potential upside movement.
- Short Position:
Consider initiating short positions near resistance levels only after reversal confirmation for potential downside movement.
Risk Management:
- Always use stop-loss orders to protect against adverse market movements.
- Consider position sizing based on risk tolerance and account equity.
Disclaimer:
These levels are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Thanks
Nifty BankNifty FinNifty MidcapNifty Levels for 18 Dec 2023
I am sharing crucial NSE:NIFTY NSE:BANKNIFTY NSE:FINNIFTY1! NSE:MIDCPNIFTY1!
levels that serve as significant support and resistance points for intraday trading. To execute trades based on these levels, wait for a 15-minute candle closing above them. You can employ both breakout and reversal strategies in your trading approach.
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Identified through price action, major support and resistance levels are marked with lines as resistances and supports. If the price breaches a support or resistance, it is likely to move towards the next corresponding level.
Important Note: These levels are intended for intraday trading purposes only.
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Midcap 100 IndexThis index also showed nice pull back from lower levels...
How much steam left ???
With the results season on i feel 30742 is an very important level.
Closely watch this level on Closing basis for a breakout / price rejection..
Happy trading...
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Sundram Fasteners ReversalThe stock has reached lower trendline and may undergo a reversal rally. Trade is supported by brokerage calls and Supports Nearby.
Risk Reward Ratio - 2:1
SL is placed below support zone & the lower trendline. The target is placed near resistance.
Market is bearish, so take positions carefully.
Russel2000 Index: Correction extendsThe major weakness is part of a first down leg on the weekly chart. Support comes in around 1455 (lower part of the cloud) and 1445 (38.2% retracement). Setting a minor and intermediate base in this area is probable before the corrective phase continues. So even though a minor bounce and/or consolidation can be expected once reached, we strongly advise against any buying. Instead, cover some shorts (20% or so) and re-enter on rallies if they occur.
For the coming weeks and months we expect to see 1355 as a minimum. Once a bounce occurs new/ more accurate down side projections can be made.
Long term trend: neutral
Outlook: major correction in primary trend
Strategy: hold-short / sell rallies
Support: 1640 / 1455 / 1355*
Resistance: 1660
Major shift in sentiment: above 1660 (stoploss)