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Midterm

DCA for beginnersI made a visual explanation investing mid/long-term with DCA and of how effective DCA is and how to do it based on a weekly chart, no matter how much money you got, you can adapt to your capital Understand that this is an example amongst many other and you are not obligated to follow this strategy, it's just to guide if you're new to DCA. It's not a financial advice. also, it's important to understand the market cycles, and know when it's a bullrun, a bear market and an accumulation & expansion phase
Education
by kaiju_crypto
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the $VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario. From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022. This head fake has allowed the $VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run. It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the $VIX right into the midterm elections... To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on $SPY $QQQ and $DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer. Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg. Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on the volatility of $VIX $TLT and $DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
TVC:VIXLong
by zwburger
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the TVC:VIX VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario. From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022. This head fake has allowed the TVC:VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run. It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the TVC:VIX right into the #MidTerms... To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , and AMEX:DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer. Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg. Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on volatility of TVC:VIX , NASDAQ:TLT , and TVC:DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
TVC:VIXLong
by zwburger
1
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - BTC to $430 000 (there's a catc The Good: $430k is in slight 🚀 The Bad: $7-$9k will come first ⚡ The Ugly: it'll take 4 years to reach the top, 3 years of which in a bear market. 🐻 Despite the high volume in the recent weeks BTC was unable to push through $25 200 or hold the $23 800 resistance that flipped support for a short while! This is very significant and paints a grim picture, especially when paired with the state the US economy and the high inflation. This price action is usually characteristic for the PS stage in a Wyckoff Accumulation, where institutional buyers accumulate the asset so that they have enough of it to sell through major resistance levels (and subsequently buy back at a discount). This in turn triggers a cascade effect, pushing weak hands, who in a state of a panic try to salvage whatever they can and sell everything they have left at a great loss. In the short term we should see a bonce back to $22 600-$22 800k before the final leg down. Bottom price is not guaranteed, but the bottom will almost certainly be at the end of November / beginning of December. To show the potential path I've used an inverted fractal from ADA that covers the accumulation period and the ascend to $3+. Never a financial advice, dyor.
by Rezakov
Market Impacts of the US Mid-term ElectionsCME: S&P 500 CME_MINI:ES1! ; NYMEX: WTI NYMEX:CL1! and Henry Hub NYMEX:NG1! ; COMEX: Copper COMEX:HG1! and Aluminum COMEX:ALI1! The 2020 U.S. presidential election put Democrats in control of the White House and both branches of the Congress. In the upcoming mid-term elections, if Democrats retain their majority, Joe Biden will become the most powerful U.S. president in the 21st century. Donald Trump, his predecessor, enjoyed a Republican-led Congress in the first two years. However, after Democrats took back the House in 2018, Mr. Trump found himself fighting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi daily, all the way to a presidential impeachment in 2020. President Obama faced a divided Congress in six of eight years. The only lasting impact of his presidency may be Obamacare, besides his own legacy as the first African American president in U.S. history. United We Act, Divided We Fight Looking back on the 90 years since Franklin D. Roosevelt first became president: • We had Party Government for 44 years. The term refers to where the president, the house and the senate are controlled by the same political party. • For 14 years, we had a Divided Government , where only one branch of the Congress aligned with the president. • The remaining 32 years were Opposing Government , where the president and the Congress came from opposing parties. A divided or an opposing government tends to spend too much time on political infight. It’s difficult to reach a consensus to do big things. Major bills usually got approved in a unified government, and their impact extends far beyond the four-year presidency. For proof, we only need to look at how government spends money. In 2022, Medicare is the biggest expense item in the $6 trillion federal budget. Medicare Act was introduced in 1965 under President Johnson and a Democrat-led Congress. More than half a century later, it now costs $1.44 trillion or 24% of government spending. Social Security is the second largest expense item. The program was enacted in 1935 by a Democrat-led Congress as part of President Roosevelt’s New Deal. Social Security costs $1.13 trillion in 2022, or 19% of federal budget. Biden Administration’s Achievements What did the Biden Administration accomplish? One may point out the embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan in 2021 and the runaway inflation in 2022. However, Mr. Biden has been very effective in pushing legislative agenda. In just 1-1/2 years, four major bills with a $4 trillion total budget have been signed into law. A month after Biden took office, Congress passed a $1.9 trillion American Rescue Act on March 11, 2021. Most Americans received a $1,400 check from the Treasury Department. Millions of small businesses got approved for much needed loans. Government bailout prevented the economy from going into recession in the depths of a pandemic, even though it might have paved the groundwork for hyperinflation we are experiencing now. On November 15, 2021, Congress passed a $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Among the biggest items, $110 billion are allocated to upgrade the country’s roads and bridges, $66 billion to renovate passenger and freight railways, and $65 billion to revamp the electric grid. U.S. unemployment rate stays very low this year, thanks in part to the new jobs created from government funded programs. On August 9th, Biden signed into law the U.S. Chip and Science Act, which has a $280 billion price tag for ten years. Just a week later, He approved the $737 billion Inflation Reduction Act. Most economists agree that bill has little chance of reducing inflation. The real purpose is to fund climate programs. To be budget-neutral, high-income earners will see a tax hike. Investment carry interest will be taxed. And there is a 15% minimum corporate tax. Mid-term Outcomes and their Implications to Financial Market The 2022 mid-term elections consist of 36 senate races, 435 house races, and 36 gubernatorial elections. There are thousands more at state and local government levels. Depending on their political leanings, different polling agencies have very different mid-term predictions. Here, I would like to explore the impact of the mid-term elections on financial markets based on the three states of governing: • A one-party government • A divided government • A lame duck government One-Party Government The Democrats currently control the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. A united government could do big things and spend big money. If Biden’s party win in the midterm, the Administration would continue its path to "Build Back Better ". The Winners: • The stock market: My chart shows correlation of market turning and passage of big bills. Government investment creates jobs and supports business expansion. If you expect Democrats to win, you could express this view by a bullish equity index trade. Suggested strategy: Long CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures. • Base Metals: Massive infrastructure programs call for more use of industrial materials. This is Bullish for NYMEX Copper and Aluminum. • Climate programs will provide more subsidies to clean energy, electric car, and new investment to support an ambitious carbon reduction goal. The Losers: • Fossil energy: Traditional oil and gas industry would face more government restrictions. This is bad for stocks in the energy sector, but Bullish for NYMEX WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas. Less domestic drilling means less energy supply. • High net-worth investors: Higher tax rate on people earning $400,000 or more. New taxes on investment carry interest. This will be bad for hedge funds, private equity, and venture capital funds. • The 15% minimum corporate tax will affect multinational corporations and high-tech companies which frequently use offshore tax haven. • While government spending may help pop up the S&P, the Tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 may be a loser with the higher corporate tax rates. I am concerned about the long-term ramifications of the new taxes on innovations. Government investment could not replace the role of venture capital. The former tends to be risk-adverse and the latter has more risk appetite to fund early-stage companies. They may find ten losers before running into a blockbuster. If you cut off the incentive by taxing the winner, venture capitalists will no longer fund the Apple or Google of tomorrow. Divided Government If Republican retakes either the House or the Senate, but not both, the Administration would face challenges mainly in government spending and taxes. New legislation may be stalled at a Republican-led House or Senate. I don’t see any clear winners or losers in this scenario. The Administration would turn its focus on implementing the bills already passed, such as the CHIP Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Fewer new legislations are on the horizon. Lame Duck Government If Democrats lose control of both the House and the Senate, we may well expect a lame duck government in the next two years. A Republican-led Congress would launch attack on “Build Back Better” and roll back progressive policies enacted by the Democrats. The Winners: • Oil and gas. Domestic drilling will resume in full speed. • The rich. New taxes will be rolled back. The Losers: • Climate programs. Funding will be stripped out or watered down. • New energy and electric car. Subsidies will be reduced and restricted. Voters have short memory. What happened in 2020 and 2021 will be ancient history. What will happen in the next two months – the economy, jobs, inflation, gas price – will dominate voters’ mode when they come out to vote on November 8th. So, it’s fair to say it is still too early to predict which state of government would prevail in the next two years. Financial market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odds of success. I suggest my readers subscribe to CME market data. Tradingview users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
36
Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
That's itHi everyone, We are still in a wedge for Bitcoin. We took out the liquidity that resided above the last swing high, and right now the price is showing rejection, which is creating a new high, with liquidity that resides above it too. In the following days, we might /witness some red days, which will make retail enter short, then test the 0.68 Fib level. After that, we might break above the resistance shown, retest, and then reach the 27,750 level. In summary, we are going to see a move to the downside (short-term), then to the upside (mid-term), and finally continue our long-term downtrend.
Short
by yassin_khanji
2
BTC - Altseason is close!?!☝️On July 12 I told you guys exact scenario that happened on BTC. That first we have to go down with short squeeze and only then we can start a bull run. Let's look at how situation looks right now. ☝️What was the cause of volatility yesterday? Inflation news from US. Inflation was higher than expected, hense we squeezed down, however overall economy is doing good and big money run from europe to US. That's why we rose. ☝️What now? We broke local trendline on BTC and now coming close to global trendline that you can see on daily chart. It's 100 days long so potential move will be huge ! As soon as we break it we will finally change trend to complete bullish and start short altseason What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Long
by Artem_Dishel
12
Consider gold to be safe haven? Don't be so sure🔑 As inflation rises all around the world everyone turns their eyes to gold - safe haven during all financial crisis's. However if you look at the chart, Gold came too close to the stop-losses of bulls, just below the demand zone. When you expect something to rise, you always have to ask yourself - Who will pay for the show? That's exactly why I think that we have to collect liquidity at the bottom of supply zone before going up and starting new bull rally. Targets for such bullish momentum could be as high as previous top at 171, which is roughly 50% iincrease! What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
NASDAQ:XAUShort
by Artem_Dishel
6
How far market will drop? Complete midterm BTC analysis🐻🐂Today many bulls woke up with horror in their eyes, BTC dropped once more and the drop is heavy. Bears on the other hand, excited since a lot of shorts worked out well, I am one of them. Let's look at BTC and see what's waiting for us here. We broke the support at 20k and now heading down. Problem here is that there no strong levels nearby. Closest Levels that can become support are 6% away from here. For intraday traders and scalpers it's a good idea to short this market. However, I wouldn't advise to do it today since most coins are at full ATR already, pullback should be expected. To become bullish once again, we have to break the trendline on the chart as until we are trading under it, we are in bear market. Also for bulls opportunities are not over as they can take bounces or local trendline breakouts when price reaches "Strong support 1" or "Strong support 2" Always be careful, don't try to subdue the market, just follow it. And have strict risk-management! What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Short
by Artem_Dishel
9