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BITCOIN-Bulls Have Everything Under Control. Relax! EmotionsD4rkEnergY is back, and he is more ready than ever to bring you this update on Bitcoin. Did you see the latest calls? First the brake through historical important 11,600 USD, and the Long to just under 14,000 USD, for hereafter giving the Stop Hunt Warning. And a few hours later, we got a 2,000 USD Stop Hunt.... Relax... Lets talk Emotions When I wake up, and I see BTC is at 13,000 USD, I also feel Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). My heart starts instant to beat faster, I can feel a rush in my body and when I then go into TradingView or Twitter, and see that everyone is talking about 20% gains everywhere, and I see, that people are panic buying, I also panic, and I want to buy. When I suddenly see huge long red candles, and a 2,000 USD stop loss, I also get anxious, I start to get clammy hands, I start to sweat, and suddenly everyone is starting to panic sell, I also panic, and I want to sell. So what is happening? Without going into too many details, when we see someting, our brain starts to interprete the event, which then sends signals to our sympathetic nervous system, which is the reason why we get a physical reaction. Somebody also knows this as the fight flight response. Why Trading is Hard In daily life it can be a good thing to listen to your feelings, and act on them. But not when it comes to trading (usually). The reason why trading is hard, is because, you often have to do something that is CONTRARY to your feelings to win. So when events like I have described for you above occurs, most people have a hard time to control their actions, and act on their feelings AND being consitstent with it. And suddenly within miniutes you might already have entered and exited a couple of trades and lost. The point is here, that we are NOT trying to change our feeling, but we are trying to change your actions. Solutions Things like a strategy, money- and a risk mangement all contributes to a more healthy mindset, which help you to not act on your emotions. If you want to take it to the next level, which I have done, you can do mindfullness and meditation exercises, which have scientific evidence that it helps on stress reduction and in general the para sympathetic nervous system, which is the response that go in and regulate your nervous system. D4 Loves You <3 Please give a LIKE, and I will go more into detail about the current BTC-situation! Thanks in advance.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by D4rkEnergY
22
Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF) There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal. On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue. Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market. So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day. "......" After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......." This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!" Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected. **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
by tradersmentality
Trading - Only Strong Trend Markets Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF for investing) There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal. On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue. Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market. So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day. "......" After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......." This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!" Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected. **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
A
by tradersmentality
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #3Lesson 7 Trade Outcome is Random The outcome of any given trade is random, no matter how strong your edge is. It is impossible to predict whether a trade will result in a loss, decent profit, or a windfall profit. Contrary to what most Price Action traders and price analysts believe, you cannot and will never be able to predict the market. Most amateur traders fail to recognize this fact, or deny this reality altogether. They believe eventually, they will be able to avoid losing trades and pick winners. They do not understand the outcome of any given trade is random, and therefore impossible to know before hand. Consider weather prediction as an example. Meteorologists have highly sophisticated weather models and algorithms to predict weather behavior, just like traders and institutions in the market. Yet the weathermen cannot accurately predict what will occur. They can say "There is a 60% chance of rain today if you live in X." But they cannot say exactly when or where rain will fall. It is the same in the market. You may have a good idea of what may occur, and even be right! However, there is still a reasonable chance (usually around 40%) that you are wrong, and the exact opposite will occur. The market is always right. It does not matter what you think or believe should or will happen. All that matters is what is happening. Just because a trade looks good or an edge is strong, does not mean it will result in a profit. There is still an opposing probability that it will fail. The point is that you will never know beyond a reasonable doubt what the market will do next. You may have a hunch, or a strong edge, but that will only get you so far. Therefore the only thing to do is to always take your edge, because you never know if this will be the windfall profit you are looking for, a small profit, or a loss. And quite frankly, it does not matter! Lesson 8 Market Outcome Does Not Matter The outcome of any single trade does not matter. It is very common for traders to become attached to the outcome of this individual trade. This is what leads to emotions, anger and frustration with trading and the market. We get stuck in the mindset that we have to win X amount of profit like 2X risk on this trade, or have to make money every day to be a profitable trader. This is not the case at all. In fact you only have to win one 1 or 2 really good trades out of 10 to maintain a consistent performance. Any single trade is irrelevant to a trading system or strategy. It is the cumulative result over a series of trades that results in a profit. This is why it is so important to know and only trade your edge, otherwise you introduce randomness into your performance, and are unable to produce consistency. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
AEducation
by tradersmentality
2
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders. So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit. They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex. If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame. It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?" Lesson 5 Define your edge An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness. Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability. Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business. Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing. Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending. If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
Understand The Bicoin-Mindgame Now - Or You Will be Crushed!You NEED to understand the Bitcoin-situation we are in! I have explained to you last time, how we in OUR FAMILY made $$$, cause I chose to be a CONTRARIAN to the market. Look at the Longs vs Shorts indicators. Everyone went short, but we chose to go Long. It's not easy, but this is a mindgame, and you need to be in the head of the whales to swim with the whales! In our FAMILY we are swimming with the Whales! The Wrong Mindset I talked a bit about the Whales/Smart Moneys plan yesterday. To sum it up - they have killed the Dumb Money again and again, and they kept adding to their shorts cause they have the wrong mindset: NOW we HAVE to go DOWN WRONG! Instead you should think like this: When everyone believes we won't go higher, WE WILL GO HIGHER. When everyone believes we have bottomed, WE WILL GO LOWER. What Will Happen Now and THE SECRET PLAN Normally I will only tell this to my FAMILY. But I have chosen to help you guys in this market, because too many people are losing money now. Right now the Whales/Smart Money want to go as HIGH as possible with killing Shorts (Stop Hunting) - they are trying to bait the Dumb Money to go Short (and look how the Shorts again are being a majority). That has been the plan from the beginning - And AS SOON the Dumb Money finally will go LONG, which is on the 5th Wave, the Whales will pull out the big Sledge Hammer and go SHORT. 2 Scenarios Everything is in principle pointing down. We are in an ascending wedge, Bulls are losing momentum and we have regular Bearish Divergence. BUT if you don't understand the mindgame you will be fooled, cause the Whales might soon strike again with one of the the following moves: GREEN: Is the easiest stop hunt. The whales will buy up quickly and make huge buy walls. And shorts will once again get liquidated. YELLOW: Its a more difficult maneuvre from the whales, but also more profitable if they succeed. In this way they will first manage to kill both Longs and Shorts. D4 Please give a LIKE
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
16
The Bitcoin-Secret: How We Made HUGE $$$ - And Most People Lost!D4rkEnergY wants to reveal something for you. I shared it with my Team, and we made more than 150 % on Bitcoin. But how did I know, that we would continue to go up, WHEN basicially everyone was betting on DOWN. We were part of the 5 % who made money. We CHOSE to be contrarians, and THAT is exaxtly what you need to be once in a while. I will tell you the secret - and you will be part of our Team ASAP, so you can learn from this and dont miss out on the next run - Let's Understand The Situation We are In - How Dumb Money plays, and how Smart Money plays! 1. The pros/whales/smart money were accumulating Bitcoin around 3,000 USD. Notice that the volume is relatively low. The idea behind that is obviously not to attract attention, but also to do it in smaller bits for a longer period of time, so the price won't go up. I was the first one to spot that. 2. A lots of these people are still holding - obviously some of them have secured profit during the journey. 3. Whales have pushed the price higher and higher and higher, and short are getting killed. But how did I know we would go through 6k and 7k? The reason is that you have to think like a Whale. I have been writing more about that here: 4. Whales are now waiting for retailers to go LONG and turn their bias, which is about to happen. BUT and this is super important. They are also hoping they can hold this price for a while, and that the main stream medias will pick up on the story, so new people will FOMO in - AND if that is the case we might even see BTC go to 8,5k-10k USD 5. As you now can see, things are getting really clear. The Pros have bought in the accumulation phase, or we might have bought at the 2nd, 3rd or the beginning of the 5th wave. The Dumb Money/retailers have been Short ALL the way up to the 5th wave. And NOW they finally will go LONG. 6. So here comes the question for the professor - What will happen now? The Smart Money will obviously Sell and take massive profit while the Retailers once again are stuck - this time in a LONG on the 5th Wave. That is the difference on how Dumb Money and Smart Money operates. No1 D4 Please leave a LIKE, and I will keep you updated! Thanks in advance.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
11
Trading PsychologyMany traders seek consistency through the idea of mastering the markets. They consider them to be logical and therefore can be figured out. They believe with more knowledge of markets and how they operate, they will eventually make a consistent return. And so they continue searching in the markets for a reliable edge, or outside the market for a leader or guru to show them the way. They see their emotions as an enemy; something standing in their way of success, and so attempt to remove them completely; which is impossible. This idea, that the answer is out there somewhere, is a false belief. Most traders never stop to think that perhaps what they are seeking is already within themselves, right here. That all they actually need is to stop searching, and look within. In order to succeed long term you must first understand your self and the relationship between yourself and the market. Your emotions, thoughts, and perception of the market, and how these relate to actions taken in the market place. If you do not believe these are directly connected with your actions and therefore performance, you will likely struggle to maintain a consistent performance. Rather than viewing your emotions as an enemy, learn to use them to your advantage. Learn to understand the circle or cycle between you and the market.
by tradersmentality
BITCOIN: The BEST CHART AND ADVICE you have ever seen! ;-DHey cryptomaniacs and traders, welcome to another analysis...no sorry. I just wanted to wish you all a HAPPY EASTERN and want to remind you that coins and money is not the important thing in LIFE! Do I got some adviced for you? Yeah! I know we all might be chart-addicted and love to trade - We always check our portfolios and news. But all this can be stressfull, right? Take the time to recover - Refresh your mindset and don`t forget to celebrate Eastern with your family - You never know how long they stay! Health, freedome, time, family - All this is way more important than your financial freedome. So grant yourself a little break and focus on the real important things before we head into the next week. You will feel refreshed and happy! And a good state of mind will cause better decisions - and better trades. SO HAPPY EASTERN EVERYONE:-) -------------------------------------------------- Peace Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me! :-)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Trading2ez
8
Sssh... The SECRET BITCOIN PLAN - The Whale MindsetDear Friends D4rkEnergY is going to tell you a secret - something about THE BIGGER PLAN with Bitcoin. I have told you many times, Bitcoin is extremely bullish at the moment. So many things are pointing up BULLISH SIGNS - We have escaped the down trend line - Since December 15th where our uptrend started we have had increasing volume . We also call that Price/Volume Trend Convergence, which basically means that is supports the ongoing trend. - Bullish Momentum is huge - Increasing Global Market Cap and Volume , which tells us that the Market Sentiment is bullish I'm PRETTY sure that BITCOIN will go higher than 6,000 USD! WHY AM I SO SURE ABOUT THAT? First of all our Elliott Waves and what I wrote above make it plausible. But we will ALSO do this because it will be a smart and clever move for the whales - If we go that high, main stream medias will start talking about a BTC comeback and it will attract more retail investors. Retail investors will start to buy up BTC again. And hereafter when everyone think we are going for a new bull run, will the smart money and WHALES STRIKE! They will dump Bitcoin and take profit, which is around 100 % -they have accumulated since 3,300 USD as you can see from my chart. Let's see! And give a LIKE! D4!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
19
we have a short signal for euro/cadtheres a couple things that i learned from the past month of trading. i first started to journal around December and my trading changed drastically. a couple of lessons that i learned were - trust your analysis. : you need to love your ideas, you need to love your mind. fuck what other people say. you see things differently than other people. THERE IS NO RIGHT OR WRONG ANSWER. this is a probability game. - set realistic targets and be aware of your emotions when you trade. - trade in a physical environment where you thrive: i make some shitty decisions when i wake up out of bed and completely not in the zone.GET IN THE ZONE. treat yourself and your trading with care.
Short
by patunida
Profitable Trading - Tom HallCASINO MINDSET Casinos consistently generate billions in revenue per year in what many individuals believe is luck. Casinos don’t exists because of luck, they understand that over a series of events, the odds are in their favour. As a financial trader you must become the Casino and understand that you will hit drawdown and period of losses, however if your continue to execute your trade plan your profitable edge will play out over time. Remember, you have no control over when the markets will provide trade opportunities, you do however have control over your capital. STAND BEHIND YOUR ANALYSIS Do you experience a feeling of excitement or dread once you execute a live position? If yes, there are a number of reason why these emotions would be present. The first is you either have not backtested your strict entry rules, or have no idea what the historical results have produced. By not knowing your numbers will inevitably cause emotional and impulsive behaviour as you continuously ask yourself whether or not you have a profitable strategy. The second is your risk is far greater than what you are comfortable losing in relation to your account balance or net worth. By minimising your risk allows you to have a clearer outlook when approaching your technical / fundamental analysis. Third, you begin to second guess your technical / fundamental analysis, this could be present because you have viewed a more experienced traders analysis and their thesis was the opposite to yours, alternatively your simply not confident in your ability to read markets. My advise, analyse the market with a clear and objective approach. Once you execute your position, sit back and let your profitable edge play out over time. THE HOLY GRAIL INDICATOR There are hundreds of trading strategies that provide a profitable edge in the market, so why do traders struggle to become consistently profitable? Novice traders enter the financial market with the illusion there is a golden indicator that will solve their financial problems. I’m here to tell you the holy grail indicator doesn’t exist, in-fact implementing an indicator you have not backtested could expose your entire account balance to failure. Building a profitable edge trading strategy requires significant hours of backtesting and preparation, implementing indicators that provide additional confluence to your thesis. The more confluence you can build in a small trading zone the higher the probability of success. Once you have generated a confluence based trading strategy that you are confident to implement, it’s key you fight the consistency and greed demons. The ability to stay consistent when your strategy enters drawdown comes from the confidence you have in your backtesting data, if you have no historical data of your strategy, how can you build trust and confidence when things are not going to plan. The greed demons kick in when your strategy is providing some healthy returns, the thought process of a novice trader is to increase risk in the anticipation of retiring quicker than expected, the experienced trader knows that this is simply a period where a strategies profitable edge is playing out, knowing a small drawdown is just around the corner. Fighting the consistency and greed demons can be the difference between success and failure. WINNING / LOSING There is no such thing as winning or losing in a game that has no end, there is only ahead or behind. Finance is a never ending marathon that requires stamina, just because you’re ahead today does not mean you can’t be behind tomorrow. - Tom Hall
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by UnknownUnicorn180388
13
Trade and Mindset Failure Analysis.Everyone has bad days in trading - I usually never let my mind get affected. This was different, because like an amateur, I panicked out of a set of trades because one went bad. I was in three trades simultaneously- 1. Short on a put option for 9000 strike = Would have worked out if I gave it time 2. Bought Tata motors - trade premise inconsistent and circled back to market conditions = Would have been a break even trade - why was I trading the stock anyway, it was neither my speciality nor an immediate need. Maybe I was uncomfortable with my exposure 3. Long on a call option = Would have worked out if my goal was different (instead of covering a loss from the above two trades, I should have treated it as an independent event) The timeline of events is as above. Learnings: 1. Stick to Futures, Options and Indices. I am not a stock trader - I trade derivatives which I'm good at. Lack of volatility made me skittish and I panicked. 2. I'm watching too many TV series and not working hard enough. That changes today. I am working out every day which is becoming the second good thing I do - I used to have more and I'm going to work harder to get back to that. 3. Too many things on my mind - its time to close everything outside of trading that's pending - immediately, make a to-do and strictly stick to it 4. No more gaming on weekdays, its messing with my hardwork mindset. Other affecting factors: 1. Bitcoin is not moving. I'm hedged but its an opportunity cost that gets heavier as time goes by. Okay - that's out of my system. Back to work.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by hiteshbhatia3559
EUR/USD PROFIT !Final EURUSD update another great move on Friday giving me just under 100 PIPS PROFIT. Decided to close this trade early because we have just started a new month and its good to get some percentage banked. I will be looking next week to get a new entry if the market makes it available to me. Until then sit back and be patience. I always see many traders rushing trades because they don't want to miss the run and miss out on profit however we must remember that trading is a long term game and one trade means absolutely nothing.
Long
by WJMITCHFX
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset." Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown." It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit. Employing your Edge So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge. 1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices. 2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade. 3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak. Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey -Josh Ridenour
Education
by tradersmentality
1
USDTRY - Be wary of Intervention ex-post Rapid MovesTraders layering into TRY potentially got burnt last week as the Turkish Central Bank intervened to halt the local currency's worrying devaluation by raising interest rates by a whopping 3% Whilst i tend to let the majority of fundamental data pass me by , it often pays to atleast maintain a health awareness of key macro factors that might have a direct impact on any currency pairs you are trading or tracking (this is different to following any random commentator's subjective opinion) While I do not like setting upside targets , it can pay to trail stops at healthy profit levels during large abnormal moves so as not to give back profits (we saw this in crypto in Dec 17) adn if we miss the big move initially wait for natural pullbacks / consolidations rather than chase an entry. There will ALWAYS be a pullback or another instruments that will offer the next big move. Worst thing to do is chase an entry through FOMO , get burnt and then be paralysed the next time a big opportunity presents itself. Stay rational, stay calm and nimble
Education
by TJP_Trader
EURUSD (EURO) Big Picture: How Could This Possibly Happen???EURUSD (EURO) 042418 7:50 pm. Hi trader friends, since this chart picture should replace a million words... Either the EURUSD topped or it is in a lower degree 4th Wave triangle with only one more pop up to a top, then down for 4-18 months once the top is confirmed. Whether its a triangle with one more high or the 5th Wave already top, is likely to be resolved this week. I expect one more wave lower on the intra-day charts to touch the lower trend-line of what may be a triangle within 1-3 days. Then, the EURUSD will likely bounce in a small corrective rally, meaning a huge down move is imminent. Or, the bounce will have conviction and break the upper triangle resistance for one more impulse wave high, then tank into a Wave 2 low months or longer away. After the Wave 2 low in likely 4-18 months from now, then somehow, the US Dollar will likely be in deep trouble as the EURUSD should have a substantial rally for several years, if this is correct.. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
SHORT 81% of traders are currently short on the SP500!According to www.dailyfx.com market sentiment tool a staggering 81% of traders are holding net short positions on the SP500. .. Now I understand that roughly about the same percentage of traders don't make money and maybe that's why the SP500 has been making new highs lately? .. As always, I present you with my technical view of the market and then you can decide. .. Looking at the monthly charts it's fairly easy to say were due for a correction, but "when" is the key here. So I'll start with the 2 day chart. A close look at the most recent impulse compared to the last impulse. They are almost identical in range...almost. Singularity presents itself directly at the WEEKLY -270. Spotted at 2423. Only 9 points away! .. The normal daily interval is showing us massive divergence on the MACD Same with 4 hour Same with 1 hour And the weekly chart shows the same divergence with a 5 wave count. .. Price has been stalling just under 2400 for quite some time. And we saw a quick sell off just last week which recovered to new high's just as fast. Historically, before sell offs we normally see some irregular price action like this. .. Go back to 2008, we see price correcting not steadily climbing as before! It does this for around 148 days before the sell off in December. .. Rewind to 2000, right before the crash. We see price stalling for around 157 days and selling off sharply in October. .. And then there was 1987 This thing didn't give much of a warning. Perhaps it was a time where less market manipulation took place? But we can see the sell off came around the end of of October. .. Drawing from current technical analysis and historical data we may see some shit going down by the end of the year. Be patient and don't try and pick a top people! Just look at the charts from 1987, 2000 and 2008. I can see a few places for perfect entries AFTER a sell off was already confirmed and price really wasn't too far away from the top anyway. Bottom line : The crowd is right, but they got to the party early and the music hasn't even started yet so its kinda awkward.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pAulseperformance
81% of traders are currently short on the SP500!According to www.dailyfx.com market sentiment tool a staggering 81% of traders are holding net short positions on the SP500. .. Now I understand that roughly about the same percentage of traders don't make money and maybe that's why the SP500 has been making new highs lately? .. As always, I present you with my technical view of the market and then you can decide. .. Looking at the monthly charts it's fairly easy to say were due for a correction, but "when" is the key here. So I'll start with the 2 day chart. A close look at the most recent impulse compared to the last impulse. They are almost identical in range...almost. Singularity presents itself directly at the WEEKLY -270. Spotted at 2423. Only 9 points away! .. The normal daily interval is showing us massive divergence on the MACD Same with 4 hour Same with 1 hour And the weekly chart shows the same divergence with a 5 wave count. .. Price has been stalling just under 2400 for quite some time. And we saw a quick sell off just last week which recovered to new high's just as fast. Historically, before sell offs we normally see some irregular price action like this. .. Go back to 2008, we see price correcting not steadily climbing as before! It does this for around 148 days before the sell off in December. .. Rewind to 2000, right before the crash. We see price stalling for around 157 days and selling off sharply in October. .. And then there was 1987 This thing didn't give much of a warning. Perhaps it was a time where less market manipulation took place? But we can see the sell off came around the end of of October. .. Drawing from current technical analysis and historical data we may see some shit going down by the end of the year. Be patient and don't try and pick a top people! Just look at the charts from 1987, 2000 and 2008. I can see a few places for perfect entries AFTER a sell off was already confirmed and price really wasn't too far away from the top anyway. Bottom line : The crowd is right, but they got to the party early and the music hasn't even started yet so its kinda awkward.
SP:SPXShort
by pAulseperformance
Why bad psychology might be stopping you from succeedingYou are a Human. This is good. You are capable of making complex decisions. You can identify patterns. You can enter excellent trades. This is also bad. Between your ears is a narcotics factory that will put Heisenberg's mobile meth lab to shame. You've entered a trade. This is it. The BIG one. A one-way ticket to infinite infinity pools. Adrenaline dilates your pupils and switches off your digestive system. Suddenly you're not hungry anymore. Endorphins , stronger than morphine, are spewed out of the pituitary gland. Dopamine released from the middle of your brain means you can no longer hold in your excitement. This trade's a winner! Anandoline kicks in, you're hungry again. There's some the leftover beef bourguigion in the fridge. Who needs speed when you've got PEA ? Shit, the trade's gone sour! Suddenly you're anxious. It must be the serotonin . Being Human is something we can't get away from. But we can learn to master our mind. A recent study by DailyFX analyzed 43 million real trades to measure trader performance. They found that across 15 most traded currency pairs, the majority of trades were successful . Yet traders are still losing. Why? They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. So if you're reading this and it applies to you, you're probably very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities. Over 50% of your trades may well be profitable. Because you're Human and you're awesome. So how can we be more profitable? If your trading strategy has a high strike rate, then a low risk-reward ratio will suit - but you have to let the trades play out. If you don't do this, it will ruin your trading edge. If you fall into this category, then a 1:1 or 1:2 trade will suit you fine. remember to give the trade enough room to breath. I've seen traders make amazing calls, yet they place a stop loss 10-20 pips away from their entry. This is simply not enough. If you're not so confident with your trading strategy and you've not been consistently making winning calls, you first might want to learn from people that know more than you. Knowledge is power! The second thing you might want to do is have a slightly higher risk-reward ratio (1:2 or 1:3, even 1:4). If you fall into this category, try identifying excellent setups on the Daily or even Weekly charts. Trading on the hourly charts and expecting 1:4 trades to come in every time simply won't work. Set your stop and take, and leave it alone. Close your laptop and enjoy a caipirinha by the pool. Happy trading everyone, AvidTrader
Education
by avidtrader89