Miner
Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate GrowthThe current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin.
The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event.
We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR)
In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring.
However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices:
1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR...
2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run.
In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week:
OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION
Apr 2012: 2
Dec 2012: 2
Dec 2014: 2
Apr 2015: 21
Nov 2016: No Capitulation*
Oct 2018: 5
Mar 2019: No Capitulation*
May 2019: No Capitulation*
Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month.
This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month.
However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY.
10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
Notes:
* Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away
** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
GLL 3 hour brschultz model places Gold Price Peak Sept 2021JNUG looks to remain strong for next 24 months
Continue to Test Daily Model - Gold Peak Strongly Set 4 Sept2021Continue to Test Daily Model - Gold Peak Strongly Set 4 Sept2021
JNUG's 34 cross' over 340 - 1st time since April 2016 - BULLISHJNUG's 34 cross' over 340 - 1st time since April 2016 - BULLISH
HL / Hecla is worth $3.50/share (Weekly 340, 204 & 500 Hull)HL / Hecla is worth $3.50/share (Weekly 340, 204 & 500 Hull)
#ANTO - Worst weekly fall since Sept 2011A big fall this week.
Broke through weekly 50 EMA and heading towards its 200 EMA.
Will it break that and head into a downtrend?
Silver Miners Setting up for Big Bullish MoveMarkets are correlated. US equities have been staving off another major decline for the last few months, and conversely, precious metals--although impacted by a rising dollar--remain long-term bullish. We can see a nice wedge-type formation here of bullish implications. It's full target is about 40% above current prices, but then full targets are not necessarily reached. Strategy is to go long on break of trend line...this will likely take a while to play out given the chart shown is weekly.
$SILJ W,D W: reverse trend in progess, if more caution needed, watching for the RSI mov.avg over 50 too
D: June 2016 trend line broken for uptrend, currently OB
Tracklist Stock: AXUAdding this stock to my tracklist: no position atm.
Alexco Resource Corp. conducts mining operations and mineral exploration and development in Canada.
It explores for silver, lead, zinc, and gold ores.
The company's mining business activities are divided into two reportable segments: Environmental Services and Mining Operations.
The Environmental Services segment carried out through Alexco Environmental Group, providing consulting and project management services in respect of environmental permitting and compliance and site remediation and reclamation; and the Mining Operations segment, including the operating Bellekeno mine, producing silver, lead and zinc in the form of concentrates.
It also had a non-operating segments, the Exploration of Mineral Properties, which includes exploration and evaluation activities; and the Corporate segment, which includes the Corporation's executive head office and general corporate administration and activity.
Alexco Resource was founded on December 3, 2004 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Website:
www.alexcoresource.com
- Sales 2016: 80,1 M
- EBIT 2016: 31,5 M
- Debt 2016: 16,0 M
- Sales 2017: 144 M
- EBIT 2017: 30,3 M
- Capi. / Sales2016: 2,77x
- Capi. / Sales2017: 1,43x
- Capitalization: 206 M
Tracklist: no advice atm.
Notes:
- Trades in sync with gdx/gdxj and thus spot.
- Longterm target on the chart is currently set at 2.68
- Daily support zone is at 1.31
GDX Gold miners at support!pretty close to the buying area now...
wait for 4th of December for the Italy referendum vote, we could see one final dump to buy the dip.
Possibility a re-test of $26.
Short miners Almost a complete capitulation here... giving another try.
Possible technical breakout, with tight stop loss...
pennies to thousands long term miner coming out of cloudcoming out of thin cloud-see our book on amazon on clouds-diversify among juniors-cci and percent r upper range-stoc crossed-money flow good-bollinger bands narrow-
pennies to thousands long term junior minerabove cloud and 200-juniors will run with metals-see in our book on amazon about relative strength-diversify among juniors-stop loss i n cloud-cci and percent r upper range-money flow good-mace crossed
My dataminer is stating bull, but i'm only seeing bear (next 3 dMy data miner is showing high probability, based on last 20 years, of VOD going up
Longterm neutral Andrew's Pitchfork at roughly 33.50;
Shortterm schiff's pitchfork bullish (and below price action);
Showing strong support/resistance at fibonacci levels
ActionReaction showing a downtrend yet realized that should end around 4/22.
Fib Arcs showing strength by trends; both showing downward arc resistance.
All Bear news on MACD, Stoch, and CCI.
Let me know your thoughts
