Fresnillo: ReasonableFresnillo is back to being reasonable and – in accordance with our expectations – has moved downwards again. Now, it should keep up this drive to make it below the support at GBP 456.60 and thus into the turquoise zone between GBP 473.60 and GBP 250.00, where it should finish wave (2) in yellow. There is a 35% chance, though, that Fresnillo could escape above the resistance at GBP 997.60, thus triggering further ascent above the next mark at GBP 1379.
Miners
October 8 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart
According to the latest nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in September, above expectations of 250,000. Bitcoin is down 2.64% over the last 24 hours and fell to an intraday low of $19,323.16. The largest cryptocurrency dropped alongside the traditional equity market, because the report from BLS shows the U.S. jobs market remains strong, which suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot from its hawkish interest rate hikes. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 79.6% chance for a 75 basis point rate hike in November, up from 56.5% just a week ago.
Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline
Bitcoin Miner Argo Blockchain Raises $27M to Ease Liquidity Pressures
Bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain has raised $27 million by issuing 87 million shares to ease liquidity pressures. The company’s chief executive, Peter Wall, said the combination of rising energy prices and falling bitcoin prices hit Argo’s profitability, leading to a cash crunch. Additionally, the company raised $7 million through the sale of 3,400 Antminer S19s.
Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
GOLD Phase 3 Failure - Time for LIFTOFFIf you understand price patterns, one of the most important is what I call the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
You see this pattern in up trends and at the peak/start of breakdowns in price. One thing that is very critical to understand about this pattern is the failure of Phase-3 usually prompts another wave higher. At this point, Gold has stalled out near dual support and may start a very aggressive upward price trend as we near the APEX of the Pennant/Flag formation.
My research suggests an upward move (above $1870) is very likely to confirm the upper flag channel. Then price will likely stall before attempting a bigger breakout trend.
What this means is..
Just like in 2003-05, gold began a "melt up" phase after the DOT COM bubble and the early US economic recovery.
That melt-up phase culminated in a breakdown event (GFC 2008-09). Afterward, Gold skyrocketed higher (2011)
My interpretation is that Gold is acting just like the 2004~2007 MELT UP rally phase and will likely increase another 85% from current levels - yup $3800+ Gold is on the way.
Then, we enter the BIG RALLY PHASE after 2025 or so.
Follow my research.
Newmont: Humpty Dumpty 🥚🧱Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
Couldn’t put Humpty together again .
Well, Newmont shouldn’t have such a great fall that it can’t be put together again. Tough, just like the egg headed character from the British nursery rhyme, it is sitting on the big yellow wall between $42.50 and $23.41, in which it should drop to finish wave (2) in yellow. Afterwards, Newmont should turn upwards, heading for the resistance at $86.37.
Agnico Eagle Mines: Knock on Wood…🪵… or rather: Knock on the resistance at $45.42. Thrice, Agnico has rapped on this mark, without surmounting it, however. Now, the bears are back in charge and should continue to drag the price below the support at $31.03. There, Agnico should enter the yellow zone between $19.10 and $10.08 to finish wave (2) in yellow. There is a 35% chance, though, that the bulls could intervene and drag the price above the resistance at $74.50, thus enforcing further ascent above $89.16 as well.
The GPU mining token of choice! Opinion:
- GPU mining token of choice
- Decentralized at the roots, being a BTC fork of the code.
- NFT marketplaces
GPU miners that do not intend on stopping after the merge, are likely to move towards RVN. This will grant RVN with a stronger and more decentralized network. In terms of hashpower it is likely to be seen as a network of choice. Very bullish on it long term. #GPUMINERS
#LONGTERMULTRABULLISH
Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
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$XAUUSD Gold going to plummet due to $DXY dollar wrecking ballPlease check out my analysis on DXY I did which explains the time tables and variables. If I was any other currency (but Swiss) - I'd be buying gold and silver (physical). Your central banks will print away to appease the plebs as they start to install a ecurrency social credit score system. If I was American I'd wait a bit to buy gold and silver at least if you're going to do it - buy half physical now, buy some puts on some miners (they fall harder when gold falls) and then use any dry powder to buy more physical.
I anticipate that there will also be nationalization of resources and sectors - so mining stocks won't be a good go to unless you're investing in $NEM, since America will be the last to nationalize. Some countries may just tax windfall profits like they're considering with oil companies. This would drop the stock so physical is the only way to go. If you make money on the puts, use that also to buy more physical.
Fresnillo: Attention SeekerBulls and bears are currently both angling for Fresnillo’s attention. We still expect the bears to win, though. They should grab Fresnillo and take it below the support at GBP 456.60, pulling it into the turquoise zone between GBP 473.60 and GBP 250 to finish wave v in magenta as well as wave Z in turquoise and wave (2) in yellow. However, there is indeed a 32% chance that the bulls could be victorious instead and push Fresnillo above the resistance at GBP 997.60, thus eliciting further ascent above GBP 1379.
GDX suffering a low periodGDX, the gold miners ETF which once had a lot of potential is now in the doldrums. Having hit 41 in April 2022, it had almost halved within 4 months. Recently, an attempt to consolidate and rebound is seeing a lot of challenges. First, the Gold prices are in a bear trend, secondly, rising interest rates hurt the miners, third, the weak equities market also affect the gold miners.
The GDX weekly chart has in the past couple of weeks attempted a rebound, but the past week pretty much wiped all gains out. This move mellowed the technical indicators and it is less than ideal to be a tad bullish at all.
The daily chart obviously has technically bearish indicators crossing down with momentum.
Overall, very likely to take out the last low.
Nothing much except the obvious... bearish
$BTC drop imminent? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
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*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
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GDX recoveringQuick note that the GDX is finally recovering.
After about 8 weeks, and a consolidation range, the GDX appears to be recovering with a nice gap up on the weekly chart. Technical indicators are turning up, and the daily chart would be testing the 55EMA soon...
29 appears to be a very strong resistance to break.
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 12.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 12.08 - #IDEA 🤖
Snapshot:
Short-Term
30:70- Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term
50:50 - Bullish:Bearish
Technical Analysis:
Bullish Scenario:
There isn't too much to suggest a much bullish sentiment. The best to hope for is a bounce at $23.5k off the lower ascending wedge trendline and pump back to the upper trendline at $25k region as quickly as possible to avoid a full break down. Up on dropping through key resistance a realistic bullish play back up is an inverse head and shoulders - this could play out over quite a long period. The best case scenario is to pump hard to try and break $25k although going into the weekend that is unlikely.
Bearish Scenario:
Currently playing out the final part of a head and shoulders with a $22.7k as the lower limit of it (not to say it can't go past that) - there are a few key support on the way although going into weekend not expecting them to hold - my realistic target is $22.7k with a mid-term max pain of $20k. Possibly driven by the highest inflation numbers in 35+ years in European countries.
Bullish Factors:
+ 20, 50 DEMA in close proximity for support
+ Approaching Key Support
+ Exchange Netflow Total turned positive
+ aSOPR turned positive
Bearish Factors:
- SEC is still on a rampage
- Weekend Volatility
- Broke HMA, 20EMA, 50EMA
- Flipped local support
- Forming Head & Shoulders Pattern
- 15min: Pullback & Exhaustion Signal
- 1 Day: Rising Wedge in Downtrend
- Lower Highs
- Transfer Volume turned negative
- Active Addresses turned negative
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio turned negative
Key News:
Bull:
+ ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment market wide
+ "We are fully ready to regulate cryptocurrencies, says CFTC Chairman" t.co
+ Strike has partnered with Visa to launch a new card
Bear:
- SEC going after hedge funds for crypto
- Trend forecaster G. Celente slams new CPI data, says ‘game is rigged’ (cryptopanic.com)
- Indian authorities freeze #crypto exchange Vauld assets worth $46.5 million.
- France inflation reaches 6.1%, the highest it’s seen in 37 years.
- Spain inflation reaches 10.8%, the highest it’s seen in 38 years.
Metrics:
Exchange
- Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure.
+ Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are low compared to the 7-day average. Lower deposits can be interpreted as lower selling pressure.
Miners
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
On-Chain
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
+ Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses.
- Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -47.00% compared to yesterday.
- Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -13 .00% compared to yesterday.
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 4.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
+ Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend.
+ Liquidation - 19644187061861.87 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
HUT 8 Canadian Bitcoin Miner Winning During Hot Summer (Double?)Hut 8 is one of the older and experienced BTC miners that is run by some wonderful ladies in Canada where it is cold and they are using low cost energy. Texas miners are shutting down to provide electricity back to the grid. European Miners have much higher energy cost and are also unplugging. When so many machines that mine Bitcoin go off the network the ones that are left get paid much more. It is estimated that Hut 8 is earning an extra 10 to 15% Bitcoin because of other miners turning off machines. Hut is also continuing to buy equipment at low costs and are growing BTC mined per month.
Hut has burned through the Ichimoku Cloud and just retested support Friday. If the QQQ continues to squeeze those that don't believe that the Nasdaq leads 4 months before the low of the market, HUT 8 can surge like MARA and SDIG did. If you watch Krowns Crypto Cave analysis on BTC each morning then you know that BTC is setting up for a run up to 25k to 28k by the end of this month.
Wild Card Prediction - Elon Musk did sell BTC in Tesla to make payroll for those big cash furnaces in China, Berlin and Austin. He went out of his way to say he didn't have anything against Bitcoin but you know his CFO was explaining he didn't want to show a $500M asset devalue, so they sold at their cost. The other sale of BTC was for a $200M gain. Elon is sitting on a lot of cash for his Tweet excursion that likely will expire. Where will that cash go? Dogecoin, maybe, but more likely BTC.
MARA and SDIG both saw crazy moves up. So if you're looking for the next Bitcoin miner to get crazy options activity it is likely Hut 8, but maybe it will only be the poorly run BTC miners. Paul Barron Network did a nice interview of Hut 8 last month on youtube if you want to learn more about them. Bitcoin currently trades in great linkage to the QQQ but that is only likely to continue for a little longer as asset managers uncouple their trading algorithms for BTC.
GDX a long term GOLD MINEGDX has been pretty beaten up over the past year and we are at record Index lows for GDX. 10Y Bonds have fallen which is great for Gold. I'm expecting our FED to slow down tightening policy headed into the New Year. Even if we do not see Gold run GDX can still climb due to such a historical low valuation on GDX.
Newmont Corp. stock analysis: Has NEM bottomed out?Newmont ( NEM ) stock prices have been falling precipitously, halving in value from highs of $86 in mid-April, due to lower gold prices and rising input costs weighing on the company's earnings.
On July 25, following the release of the disappointing second-quarter results, with EPS down to 0.46 (-30% lower than expected), the world's largest gold miner fell to a year-to-date low of $44.
Since then, however, NEM appears to have formed a very solid support at $44, which has not been broken downwards, indicating that the sellers’ strength may have faded.
NEM could have bottomed out here, but it has yet to gain traction, as prices have consolidated in a tight range between $44 and $47 over the past two weeks.
The RSI is still in oversold territory (26) but is rising slightly. Instead, the MACD provides a bullish crossover signal as the MACD line crossed from below to above the signal line.
If we are on the verge of a new bull trend, the first hurdle to overcome is undoubtedly the psychological level of $50, which served as support prior to July 25th. A breach of this level would also lead to a breakout of the 2022 bearish trendline and encourage a test of $54.04 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from April 2022 high to July 2022 low). Alternatively, if there is a fresh round of pessimism, the market may retest the $41-41.7 level that served as support in March and April of 2020.
Analysis written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
GDXJ: Excellent!GDXJ is still acting squarely in accordance with our expectations and has advanced into the magenta zone between $37.26 and $24.77, where it should soon finish wave ii in magenta. Afterwards, GDXJ should turn upwards, crossing $36.58 and heading for the resistance at $51.92. There remains a 30% chance, though, that the ETF could fall through the magenta zone and below the support at $19.52, thus activating further descent.
Barrick Gold: Keep It Up, Bears! 🐻Down it goes! Just as we expected, the bears are in high gear and have proceeded to carry Barrick downwards. Soon, they should reach the support at $13.01 and lead the price below this mark. However, there still remains a 35% chance that Barrick could escape the bears’ paws and rise above the resistance at $24.95, thus activating further ascent above the next ones at $29.59 and $31.22.
First Majestic: Should I Stay Or Should I Go?“Darling, you’ve got to let me know – should I stay or should I go?”
This song by The Clash seems to be sounding in the background while First Majestic is thinking. As it has already reached the ideal target point for wave 2 in turquoise, the share price could directly go upwards now, rising above the resistance at $19.41. Likewise, it could stay to finish wave 2 in turquoise a bit deeper in the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89. However, there is also a 45% chance that First Majestic could drop below the support line at $5.30, thus activating further descent.
Possible short on further fed funds hikes down to $5I expect more downside in miners if perceived hawkishness from the fed is maintained. Soon though, they'll cave and sacrifice the dollar to do what they think will save the markets, which will lead to an explosion in precious metals. These miners will be the ultimate levered trade on the coming fed pivot so be ready to reverse to long.
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER - PRESSURE BUILDINGThis is a weekly chart of AG, First Majestic Silver Corp. I like to call this pattern a giant compression wedge - it's just a simple descending triangle. But considering this is on the weekly timeframe, it's a mammoth-sized wedge. I like the pattern but I really like the company. I'll try to focus on the technical analysis, but First Majestic looks incredibly well positioned for what's unfolding in the metals market. They have their ducks in a row.
If you follow my ideas, then you'll know how I feel about precious metals. I believe we're facing a perfect storm that will propel precious metals & miners to incredible levels. The monetary circus, supply & demand, inflation, gold:silver ratio, and the commodity cycle are just a few of the ingredients in the recipe.
I'm torn about direction. Equities, the dollar, precious metals, and the miners are in a pivotal place. The dollar looks like it's trying to find a bottom. It's possible that the metals, miners, and equities get pushed down hard again.. potentially another crash. Having another crash in equities, metals, miners, etc.. would be my preferred path because I suspect that it wouldn't last long.. Inflation is coming but don't rule out another deflationary hiccup. I like to buy stuff cheap and so I'll be thrilled to have another discount. Watch the dollar. I think we're going to know soon.. and watch First Majestic. It would be incredible to have it tag (E) of this wedge. The measured move of this pattern is somewhere around 39-40 but a move from $4.00 to 40 is a 10x compared to the 2x it is from current prices.