Bearish for now...Overall most of the indicators point to the fact that we are not breaking the trend. There is SOME volume, but not volume the way we saw in the bubble. If anything it's volume that supports price stability around this range, however I think selling could be imminent.
The same pattern of volatility has taken place all the way down the trend line in respect to the bollinger bands, however the bollinger bands have been shrinking and volatility is subsiding. This is a good thing and I believe it may lead to gradual growth. However, this may be like the last bubble in a sense that we may not see any strong movement from here for at least a year. (Great for adoption of bit coin which can drive the price over all)
Stochastic RSI is overbought here. I believe this will drop to oversold before we start to make the slow run up.
Average True Range is an interesting indicator for Bitcoin, as it seems that we're flattening out the way that things were pre-bubble, again somewhat supporting the theory that we're losing volatility.
I'm not exactly sure how to address the MACD in relation to everything else. It supports upward movement, somewhat but not in the manner where you would want to call the bottom and make any type of swing trade.
I'm short until the mid-400s, but as a miner I have every intent on seeing the market from a bullish perspective in the long term.
Mining
Bitcoin's May Rebound and the release of KnCMiner's "Titan"Short until June.... It's the reality of the market right now. Low demand, China news, increasing difficulty for miners with dropping prices, regulation... these are all negatives for the currency.
KnCMiner will be releasing their Scrypt ASIC miner entitled the "Titan." It is my belief that many of it's first adopters will begin mining with their gear on multipools which auto-sell the most profitable altcoin for Bitcoin. With over $500 million in sales with KnCMiner the network hashrate will begin jumping immediately. Miners will begin cashing out, and the price of BTC will jump dramatically. KnCMiner has promised a delivery time of around Q2/Q3 which leads me to believe they will push these out until the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3.
The automatic buying pressure at that time should fuel the initial run and an automatic run for Bitcoin in the long-term until difficulty levels adjust and profits decrease.