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USD/JPY breaches 150USD/JPY is almost unchanged today but hit a milestone in the Asian session as it briefly darted above the 150 line, which has psychological significance. This marked the yen's lowest level since August 1990 as the currency continues to slide. The yen hasn't recorded a winning session since October 4th and has plunged about 600 points during this period. Later today, Japan releases Core CPI for September, which is expected to rise to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in August. The Bank of Japan holds its policy meeting next week, but it seems unlikely that it will change its ultra-loose policy. The yen is sinking and inflation is above the Bank's 2% target, but the central bank is fixated on continuing to provide massive stimulus in order to support the weak economy. Earlier today, Japan's 10-year government bonds breached the 0.25% cap which the BoJ has fiercely defended, rising as high as 0.264%. The BoJ has responded with an emergency bond-buying package in order to bring yields back below 0.25%. With the BoJ defending its policy and ignoring the yen's descent, the ball is in the court of the Ministry of Finance (MoF). The MoF dramatically intervened in late September to prop up the yen after it fell below 145, but the move did little more than slow the yen's descent for a few days. Another intervention is possible, but it would have to be on a larger scale to have any substantial effect on the exchange rate. Finance Minister Suzuki has warned that the government would "properly respond" in the currency markets, but increasingly, the verbal bullets out of Tokyo are being viewed as blanks. With the Federal Reserve showing no signs of easing up on oversize rate hikes, the yen remains at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential, which continues to widen. The yen's prolonged downturn looks set to continue, with the currency likely to hit new lows. USD/JPY is testing support at 149.81. Below, there is support at 149.09 There is resistance at 150.04 and 151.32
by OANDA
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USD/JPY creeping higherUSD/JPY continues to move edge higher and is up 1.6% this week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.67, up 0.25%. The Japanese yen is once again on a downswing, after hugging the key 145 line. The dramatic intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) in September stemmed the yen's bleeding, but this move by Tokyo appears to have had a very short shelf-life, as the yen fall to new 24-year lows. The burning question is with the yen currently lower than when the MOF stepped in, will it again intervene to prop up the Japanese currency? The first intervention clearly didn't achieve its desired effect of stabilizing the yen below 145 and Japan's foreign reserves fell by a record amount in September, around 2.8 trillion yen. The game of cat-and-mouse between the MOF and speculators betting against the yen continues, and another currency intervention could be in the works, but it would likely have to be much larger than the first intervention. The MOF could try to send a stronger warning to the markets, but it's questionable whether unilateral action by Japan will be enough to change the yen's downtrend. The Bank of Japan has no intention of capping JGB yields and with the Fed likely to deliver another oversize rate hike in November, the US/Japan rate differential will continue to widen and likely weigh on the Japanese yen. The US posted another hot inflation report for September. Headline inflation ticked lower to 8.2%, down from 8.3% but above the consensus of 8.1%. Core inflation rose to 6.6%, up from 6.3% and higher than the forecast of 6.5%. Inflation clearly is yet to peak despite monetary policy becoming restrictive, and the inflation data cements expectations for a 75 basis point hike at the November meeting. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 147.50. Above, there is resistance at 148.32 There is support at 147.50 and 146.04
by OANDA
USD/JPY eyes US nonfarm payrollsUSD/JPY has been hovering close to the 145 line most of the week, and the trend has continued today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.81, down 0.21%. The US releases nonfarm payrolls later today. The release once received massive coverage and was usually a market-move, but the new era of high inflation and global tightening has stolen much of NFP's thunder. Still, the indicator is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and could provide insights into future rate moves from the Federal Reserve. The consensus for the September nonfarm payrolls stands at 250,000, lower than the 315,000 recorded in August. The US labour market has been very robust, and investor reaction will likely be muted if the consensus is not wide of the mark. The markets will be more focussed on hourly earnings and the participation rate - soft readings would raise speculation that the Fed could ease up sooner rather than later, which would be bearish for the US dollar. Conversely, hot readings would support the Fed remaining hawkish, which would give the US dollar a boost. Japan will also be keeping a close eye on today's US jobs reports. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has shown that is willing to intervene to prop up the Japanese yen, and a stronger-than-expected NFP could be the trigger for another round of intervention. Since the dramatic intervention on September 22nd, the yen has moved only slightly above the 145 level, which could well be a 'line in the sand' for the MOF.  The MOF intervention, which was meant as a warning against speculators, likely cost 2.84 trillion yen. The move led to Japan's foreign currency reserves falling to their lowest level since 2017. With the Bank of Japan capping JGB yields and the Fed continuing to deliver oversize rate hikes, the US/Japan rate differential is widening, which means the yen will likely continue to lose ground, barring another currency intervention by the MOF. There is resistance at 145.36 and 145.97 USD/JPY has support at 144.29 and 143.68
by OANDA
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Japanese yen - calm before the storm?After some mid-week volatility, USD/JPY has settled down. In the European session, the yen is trading quietly at 143.59. For anyone following the Japanese yen, next week promises to be interesting, at the very least. The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on September 21st, with the Bank of Japan officials meeting the next day. The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the dollar, and fell to 144.99 earlier this month, a new 24-year low. Japanese officials have responded with well-worn rhetoric about how Tokyo is concerned about the yen's depreciation and warning that all options are on the table. We've heard this all before, but is this time different? Is Japan seriously contemplating a currency intervention to prop up the ailing yen? There has been some speculation that 145 could be a line in the sand for the MOF, but in fairness, there was similar talk when yen hit 130 and then 135, and the MOF and BoJ stayed on the sidelines. The likelihood is that Tokyo will avoid such a dramatic move, which last occurred in 2011. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Bank of Japan are not happy with the rapid descent of the yen, but an intervention would require the consent of the G-20, which is unlikely to give its consent. The BoJ made waves this week after a report that it had conducted a rate check, which was viewed as a possible prelude to an intervention. Finance Minister Suzuki has been coy about what moves he might make, and refused to comment on whether the BoJ had made a rate check. The BoJ has rigidly maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy in order to stimulate Japan's fragile economy. As part of this policy, the BoJ has kept a firm hand on its yield curve control, and the price for this stance has been a freefall in the yen, which is done an astounding 30% against the dollar this year. With the Fed looking to hike next week by 75 basis point, and an outside chance of a massive full-point increase, the yen's downtrend is likely to continue, barring a spectacular response from Japanese officials. 1.4363 is the next line of resistance, followed by 144.81 USD/JPY has support at 142.56, followed by 141.88
by OANDA
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