Today's forex news: Major currencies failed to maintain recovery
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Despite a brief rally, major currencies like the Euro and British Pound returned their gains against the US dollar. EUR/USD reached a daily high at 1.0933, before slumping to 1.0883. As the first round of French Presidential concluded with a minor lead for the current French leader March, further volatility was introduced to the Euro as reports claimed Russia will commence a new offensive on Donbas region, the allegedly pro-Russian Ukraine eastern territory.
GBP/USD bounced back from 1.2992, retaining minor oscillation at 1.3030 level, and closed at 1.3029. This is partly contributed by a mixed bag of domestic UK yields, month-on-month GDP only had a minor increase of 0.1%, falling short of the 0.3% increase forecast. However the year-on-year production figures outperformed the forecasts. Insights on the UK labor market shall be revealed later today, as the UK National Statistics will release the latest claimant count change and three-month ILO unemployment rate.
AUD/USD recorded a daily high at 0.7462, and slided to 0.7420 level, and the closing price was 0.7419. The surge in commodity prices was not enough to counteract the disruption in the global supply chain, caused by the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the latest health crisis in China.
Major announcements will be made by the Bank of Canada tomorrow (13 April) regarding its interest rate decision and monetary policy. The central bank is expected to increase interest rate by 50bps, to follow the US Federal Reserve. The US dollar extended its rally against the Canadian currency, USD/CAD continued to climb, and closed at 1.2631.
The risk aversion mood benefitted United States 10-Year Bond Yield to another extended period of growth, which rose to 2.793%, the highest level since January 2019. Gold price rallied due to the sour market mood and global inflation, and closed at 1,948.2 as it mostly plateaued at 1952 level.
Crude oil price recovered from a low of 93.00 and closed at 94.29. Although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) claimed it cannot increase output to offset lost supply from banning Russian oil, the health crisis in China and its 1.5% inflation rate lowers demand, driving crude oil to be bearish.
In addition, the US Department of Labor Statistics will announce the monthly and yearly Consumer Price Index (CPI) today (12 April), excluding Food & Energy, serving as indicators of US living costs and inflation.
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Today's forex news: US to shrink balance sheet, strengthens USDToday's forex news: US to shrink balance sheet, strengthens the US dollar
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As the Federal Reserve (The Fed) Governor Brainard said yesterday (5 April) the US has to continue its effort to slow down inflation and shrink its balance sheet, the US dollar has strengthened against other major currencies, with oil and gold prices also dropping as aggressive monetary policy tightening loomed over the market. Later today (6 April), the Fed will release minutes of its March meeting to reveal further information on its latest plans.
One of the Fed’s primary objectives is to lower living costs of low-income US households, Brainard believed further interest rate hikes are required to curb inflation rate, i.e. lower goods prices and living costs. As a result, the EUR/USD pair continued its fall to 1.0903, GBP/USD took a sharp turn to 1.3068.
Meanwhile, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had tightening expectations of its own, though it fell short in the face of more hawkish comments from its US counterpart, AUD/USD retreated from a high of 0.7650, to around 0.7570.
In the light of increasing reports of civilian casualties in Ukraine, the US, the UK and EU have proposed new rounds of sanctions towards Russia, namely in crude oil and coal imports. However, the news is also offset by a strong US dollar, crude oil prices were volatile and closed at 101.96 per barrel.
Alternatives to the US dollar also suffered, gold prices decreased to 1,927.5 as United States 10-Year Bond Yield increased to 2.554.
Today's Forex News: EU-Russia tensions escalate; Russian-UkrainiEUR/USD ⬇️
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The euro fell as investors fretted about rising economic tensions between the EU and Russia following Russian President Vladimir Putin's reiteration of a demand that European nations pay for Russian gas in roubles, exacerbating fears that Russia could stymie energy exports to the continent. This, combined with a generalized retreat from recent euphoria about supposed progress in the resumption of Russo-Ukrainian peace negotiations on Friday, contributed to risk-off flows and a decline in global bond rates, with the latter being particularly pronounced in Europe. Thus, the euro was the G10 currency that underperformed, with EUR/USD falling 0.8 percent from intraday highs near 1.1200 to current levels in the mid-1.1000s.
The EUR/decline USD's aided the DXY's recovery, with the trade-weighted index of major USD pairings rising 0.5 percent to approximately 98.30 from weekly lows near 97.70. The upside was mostly unrelated to another increase in US inflation in February, as measured by the Core PCE Price Index, or to the latest very strong weekly jobless claims statistics, all of which bolster the economic basis for the Fed's recent hawkish tilt. Indeed, the US dollar was fairly mixed against the rest of the G10 currencies, with attention now going to Friday's release of the official US labor market report for March.
The Japanese yen was once again the top performing G10 currency, benefiting from the downside bias in global equity market activity and global bond yields, extending a much-needed month/quarter-end rebound following weeks of underperformance. USD/JPY has stabilized below 122.00. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair was slightly higher on the day, but stayed contained inside previous intra-day ranges in the mid-1.3100s and capped by its 21-Day Moving Average.
Finally, it was a mixed bag for the commodity-sensitive Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian currencies. USD/CAD was unchanged and was able to withstand strong losses in the crude oil complex following the announcement of the US's historic Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M barrels per day for the next six months). The pair remained below the 1.2500 mark and not far from previous multi-month lows hit earlier in the week in the 1.2430 range. Meanwhile, AUD/USD declined 0.3 percent to retest the 0.7500 level but stays comfortably within recent ranges and around multi-month highs in the mid-0.7500s, while NZD/USD fell 0.6 percent to retest the 0.6950 level, returning the pair to the middle of this week's approximate 0.6875-0.7000 ranges.
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Today's forex news: US rates slide, dollar losses continue.
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The dominant story in the foreign exchange markets has been the US dollar's persistent drop, as the DXY plummeted another 0.6 percent to the 97.80s, where it is now testing mid-March lows more than 1.5 percent below weekly highs. Wednesday's US data releases (ADP employment and final Q4 GDP and Core PCE estimates) were robust, which, paired with fresh hawkish Fed rhetoric, contributed to cementing expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike in May.
This, however, was inadequate to shield the US dollar from a bearish cocktail of
1) negative rate differential changes against the backdrop of decreasing US rates,
2) month/quarter-end selling, and
3) excitement over the Russo-Ukrainian peace negotiations.
Regarding the latter, while skepticism over apparent progress in the negotiations this week remains high in light of Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine, FX markets appear to be pricing in a more hopeful geopolitical scenario.
The EUR/USD pair achieved its highest level since the beginning of the month on Wednesday, climbing 0.7 percent on the day and 1.9 percent from earlier weekly lows of sub-1.0950. The euro received some independent support from the continuous rise in short-end Eurozone rates, as traders upped their expectations on ECB tightening in the aftermath of Spain's and Germany's latest preliminary March HICP inflation figures, which surprised to the upside once again.
While the euro outperformed the rest of the G10, it was far from the best, with the Swiss franc and Japanese yen taking first and second place, respectively. USD/JPY slid 0.8 percent to 122.00, a direct outcome of the day's decline in US rates, leaving it more than 2.5 percent below weekly highs as traders analyzed recent Japanese policymaker comments on recent currency losses. Meanwhile, USD/CHF witnessed an exceptionally steep 0.9 percent slide from over 0.9300 to the low 0.9200s, bringing it within a few pips of breaching its 200-Day Moving Average.
In comparison to the other G10 currencies, the kiwi gained from positive domestic data (New Home Building Consents and Business Sentiment), with the NZD/USD pair recovering slightly more than 0.5 percent to the upper 0.6900s. The Australian currency, like the loonie, has struggled to benefit from higher oil prices, with AUD/USD trading in a mediocre range about 0.7500 (still near multi-month highs) and USD/CAD hovering near 1.2500 and near-annual lows.
Finally, sterling was uneven, with GBP/USD rising to the mid-1.3100s but failing to hold above its 21-Day Moving Average for a sixth consecutive session, while EUR/GBP touched its highest level in over three months near 0.8500.
While the forex market's focus will remain on geopolitical developments and their possible impact on risk appetite/the commodities complex, economic data will remain a prominent driver, with traders also taking into account G10 monetary policy divergence. The OPEC+ meeting, the US February Core PCE, and Canadian January GDP numbers are the key events to watch in the next session, ahead of Friday's release of the US employment report, the week's most significant event. Eurozone HICP inflation data are also due on Friday and are likely to show a strong increase, similar to what Spain and Germany reported on Wednesday.
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Today's forex news: The dollar plunges amid renewed optimismEUR/USD ⬆️
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The dollar fell along with other safe-haven assets as renewed prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict gained traction. Risk appetite increased following reports indicating a de-escalation of Russian attacks near Kyiv and Chernihiv, as Russia's mediator Vladimir Medinsky announced.
Ukraine has proposed a new system of security guarantees, with Turkey as one of the primary possible guarantors. If the security guarantee system is successful, Ukraine will commit to a neutral position, which includes refraining from hosting foreign military bases on its soil. Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, wishes to hold a referendum on the country's neutrality.
Meanwhile, the US yield curve returned temporarily, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes remaining around 2.40 percent, albeit the shorter note slipped to 2.35 percent. Inverted yield curves are frequently interpreted as a sign of recession.
Wall Street rallied in lockstep with its international rivals, as concerns about the Eastern European situation eased.
Central banks and prospective rate hikes have resurfaced as a topic of discussion. Europe's financial markets are pricing in a 60 basis point hike, while Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker emphasized the importance of deliberate rate hikes. He stated that he would not rule out a 50 basis point increase in May but would not commit. Finally, he stated that the balance sheet reduction may equate to a two-quarter-point rate hike.
The EUR/USD pair is trading close below the 1.1100 level, indicating that the pair's bullish potential remains intact. GBPUSD has struggled to gain ground, and is currently trading about 1.3100. At the close of the American session, commodity-linked currencies continue to gain, with AUD/USD trading over 0.7500 and USD/CAD trading around the 1.2480 price zone. The USD/JPY pair ended the day at about 122.90.
Commodity prices continued to fall, with WTI trading at $104.30 a barrel. Gold futures dipped to $1,890.05 per troy ounce before recovering to close around $1,917.00.
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Today's Forex News: Expect optimism to fadeToday's Forex News: Expect optimism to fade
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USD/JPY reached a new multi-year high of 122.40.The US dollar finished mostly lower today.
The EUR/USD pair continues to struggle with the 1.1000 level, failing to extend advances above it. The GBP/USD exchange rate has stabilized around 1.3180, while commodity-linked currencies continue to advance versus their American counterparts. The AUD/USD pair reached a high of 0.7527, while the USD/CAD pair saw a low of 1.2509.
US President Joe Biden and European NATO allies are bracing for the possibility that Moscow would launch a nuclear attack. Additionally, they discussed assisting Ukraine with anti-ship missiles and reiterated that any gold transaction involving Russia's central bank is subject to existing sanctions. The headline supported the yellow metal, which soared to a new weekly high of $1,966.14 a troy ounce before settling near that level.
On the other hand, crude oil prices extended their recent increases, finishing the day barely altered. WTI is currently trading around $113.20 per barrel.
Later, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that no decision had been made on sanctions against Russian oil, gas, and coal. US President Joe Biden stated that Russia should be kicked out of the G-20.
While Germany, the UK, France and Italy, the top countries affected by this outbreak, continue to see an increase in new global health crisis cases, blamed on the Omicron BA.2 variant. As of now, there have been no restrictive measures in place, but on the contrary, the latest restriction is being lifted.
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Today's forex news: Bank of England joins the rate hike bandwagoEUR/USD ⬆️
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The Bank of England has joined the Federal Reserve in increasing its interest rate to 7.5%, in order to slow down domestic inflation, which has been aggravated by rising energy prices due to Russian invasion in Ukraine. Such a decision has extended the dollar’s fall against major currencies: GBP/USD closed at 1.3160, and EUR/USD closed at 1.1086.
Both the UK and US shared a positive note on their respective economies – their unemployment rates are lower than expected. Yesterday (March 17), the US Department of Labor announced 214,000 people have filed for Initial Jobless Claims, a 10-week low against the expected figure of 200,000.
The same day, the U.S. House of Representatives had voted in favor of removing "most favored nation" trade status for Russia and Belarus. Despite not being as reliant on Russia’s energy supply as its European counterpart, the decision prompted an upswing in metals and commodities prices. Gold prices closed at 1,942.66, with the AUD/USD pair increasing to 0.7374, partly due to its sensitivity to commodity prices.
As further US sanctions against Russia will be in effect in April, the imminent drop in supply extended the swing in oil prices, closing at 102.98 per barrel. In return, the dollar has weakened against the oil-exporter Canadian currency, closing at 1.2625.
Later today, Statistics Canada will announce its latest month-on-month Retail Sales figure, shedding light on the performance of the retail sector.
By the closing time of March 17, the United States 10-Year Bond had a yield percentage of 2.192.
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US Dollar Falls after Hawkish Fed AnnouncemeToday's forex news: US Dollar Falls after Hawkish Fed Announcement
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On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 2.5%, also preparing further measures to contain inflation. However, the hawkish attitude was not thorough enough to strengthen the dollar against most major currencies, with EUR/USD closing at 1.1032 and GBP/USD at 1.3145. Meanwhile, investors await the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision – which will be announced later today (17 March).
The AUD/USD pair saw a rise with the closing price at 0.7289, thanks to a positive job report indicating lower-than-expected unemployment rate at 4%, and an increase in gold prices at a closing price of 1,909.2, which is another response to the restrictive US monetary policy.
US dollar struck a six-year high at 119.12 against Japanese Yen, as the east Asian country experienced a 7.3 magnitude earthquake yesterday (16 March), investors look to a safe haven currency until the earthquake’s aftermath is settled.
Crude Oil, on the other hand, has settled lower at $95.04 per barrel. Since the US has increased its oil inventory, combined with optimism for other oil-producing OPEC members to increase supply, and China’s COVID outbreak slowing global consumption.
Major U.S. stock indexes have surprisingly rallied despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase borrowing costs.
United States 10-Year Bond Yield stabilized its rise, closing at 2.187%.
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Dollar rises ahead of Fed, fear reigns.
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The dollar had a rough start to the day, but it was able to regain ground throughout US trading hours. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0940, while the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3035.
Kyiv, according to President Vladimir Putin, is not serious about finding a solution that is acceptable to both parties. Hopes for a diplomatic deal were dashed by the news. Earlier in the day, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's adviser expressed confidence that a diplomatic solution might be reached in the coming weeks.
After being suspended from the Council of Europe on February 25, Russia made a request to exit the organization. Moscow also imposed a slew of restrictions on US officials, including President Joe Biden, and barred Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from entering the country.
President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde addressed at the WELT Economic Summit, noting that the economic picture had become significantly more uncertain, since the war will impede growth and cause inflation owing to rising energy and commodity costs. She also stated that inflation is expected to progressively drop and settle at the central bank's 2% objective by 2024.
China announced unprecedented health crisis outbreaks and declared a state of emergency for over 17 million people, lowering economic development prospects. Throughout the first half of the day, stocks and commodities were on the decline due to concerns about lower demand.
Gold bottomed at $1,907.04 a troy ounce, bouncing modestly ahead of the close to settle around $1,920 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices continued to fall, with WTI ending the day at $96.50 a barrel.
The AUD/USD pair traded in a narrow range throughout the day, closing the day little altered below 0.7200. The Canadian currency has benefited from lower oil prices and higher commodity prices, resulting in a drop in the USD/CAD rate to 1.2766.
Despite rising fears over the Russia-Ukraine situation, Wall Street made significant gains. US government bond yields were higher, with the 10-year Treasury note yield reaching a multi-week high of 2.169 percent and ending the day close to that level.
The emphasis of the market now switches to the US Federal Reserve, which will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday and is likely to result in a rate hike of at least 25 basis points.
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Dollar rises amid Russia tensionsEUR/USD⬆️
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Market players tried to be optimistic about a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict but were unable to do so. The optimistic feeling waned during the day, with Wall Street closing in the red following a high opening.
According to Ukraine's negotiator Mikhail Podolyak, the latest round of peace talks has been paused and will resume on Tuesday. According to a Kremlin spokeswoman, "all of Russia's intentions in Ukraine will be carried out in full and within the time frames specified." Additionally, press reports indicated that Russia may suspend wheat, corn, rye, and barley exports, while Moscow and Belarus, according to the latter's Prime Minister, will cease paying for energy supply in US dollars.
The EU Commission announced the imposition of new sanctions on Russian billionaires and entities. On the other hand, the US informed its NATO partners that China is eager to aid Russia with military and economic assistance.
The dollar is strengthening versus the most of its major rivals, however the EUR/USD is slightly higher on the day, trading at around 1.0960. The GBP/USD pair is putting pressure on the 1.3000 level following a new multi-month low of 1.3008.
Commodities dipped down, with gold falling to $1,949.57 a troy ounce and remaining there for the remainder of the day. Crude oil prices fell, with WTI trading at approximately $101.40 per barrel.
Risk aversion and a decline in gold and oil prices harmed demand for commodity-linked currencies. The AUD/USD pair broke through the 0.7200 mark, while the USD/CAD pair is trading near 1.2820.
The USD strengthened against safe-haven currencies in response to rising US government bond yields. The 10-year Treasury note yield peaked at 2.145 percent and is now hovering around 2.13 percent. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading near 118.10, its highest level since January 2017.
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Ukraine-Russia talks reach a stalemate
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A very active day concluded with the American Dollar trading mixed across the foreign exchange market. USD gained ground against Euro rivals and the JPY but fell against commodity-linked currencies.
EUR/USD is below 1.1000, while GBP/USD is barely above 1.3100. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading near a daily high of 0.7363, while the USD/CAD currency pair is trading near 1.2750.
Russia and Ukraine's four-round peace negotiations ended abruptly and without an agreement on a ceasefire or humanitarian corridors. International sanctions against Russia continue to accumulate, but Moscow has shown no sign of relenting after fifteen days.
The European Central Bank published its statement on monetary policy. As expected, rates remained steady. On the other hand, Lagarde announced a change to their Asset Purchase Program (APP), which will now conclude in the third quarter of this year. April's APP will total 40 billion euros, May's will total 30 billion euros, and June's will total 20 billion euros.
President Christine Lagarde stated that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment for Europe and has created a new downward risk, reiterating their commitment to "do everything within our mandate to pursue price stability." The central bank cut its growth predictions downward.
The US announced its February Consumer Price Index, which came in at 7.9 percent year on year, unchanged from its 40-year high. The headline added to the pressure on Wall Street, which was already feeling the strain of geopolitical instability. US indices remain in the red heading into the close but have recovered more than half of their initial losses.
The US 10-year Treasury note yield reached 2.02 percent and is expected to settle around that level.
Gold ends the day unaltered, well below the $2,000 level. Crude oil prices have dipped, with WTI trading at roughly $106.20 per barrel. The decrease in oil prices was ascribed to Russian President Vladimir Putin's statements that Moscow would adhere to its energy promises.
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Market sentiment supports optimismToday's forex news: Market sentiment supports optimism
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The US dollar and commodity prices fell substantially on Wednesday on renewed optimism about resolving the Ukraine-Russia dispute. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that his country is prepared for a diplomatic solution and is willing to make certain concessions if the other party does as well.
President von der Leyen of the European Commission stated that the EU had purchased enough LNG to be self-sufficient in gas until the end of winter.
Crude oil prices fell sharply on widespread risk aversion and rumors that Iraq is prepared to raise output if OPEC demands it. The Oil Minister, Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismail, added that the country has approximately 6% spare capacity and produces 4.4 million barrels per day. However, it is important to note that the country is now producing less than its quoted output. WTI is trading at approximately $108.00 per barrel at the moment.
Gold is currently trading at $1,981 per troy ounce, down almost $90 per troy ounce.
The EUR/USD pair flirted near 1.1100 throughout the day, before settling at around 1.1070. GBP/USD edged up to 1.3160. The AUD/USD pair has recovered to approximately 0.7300, while the USD/CAD pair has dipped below 1.2826. Finally, the USD/JPY pair has returned to a level greater than 115.00.
The European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, and market participants anticipate another round of hawkish comments from President Christine Lagarde as EU inflation continues to approach record highs. Simultaneously, the United States will release its February inflation data. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 7.8% year on year, a multi-decade high that may force the US Federal Reserve to hike rates by more than 25bps.
#WTI #gold #usd #russia #Fed
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Concerns over Eastern Europe keep volatility high
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As earlier in the day, the market sentiment improved somewhat. Ukraine verified the establishment of the first humanitarian corridor, which facilitated the evacuation of Sumy and Mariupol residents. According to the UN, the overall number of refugees has surpassed two million.
The mood improved considerably after news agencies reported that Ukraine would withdraw its application for NATO membership in an apparent bow to Russia. Meanwhile, the Turkish government has set the next round of peace talks for next Thursday.
President Joe Biden of the United States and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom have declared sanctions against Russia in response to the country's recent invasion of Ukraine. The first declared the suspension of all crude oil imports from Moscow, including gas and electricity, "after consultation with partners." The embargo on Russian energy is retroactive and extends to all new purchases. As far as the market is concerned, this move has already been anticipated by participants, as it has been making rounds since Monday.
The UK government declared that it would phase out Russian oil and oil products imports by the end of 2022. The goal is to shift slowly enough to allow markets and businesses sufficient time to substitute Russian goods. Additionally, they indicated that their present dependency on Russian natural gas accounts for 4% of supplies and that they are investigating the situation.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has imposed a moratorium on the export of manufactured goods and raw materials from the Russian federation until December 31.
The EUR/USD pair reached a high of 1.0957 but then settled a few ticks above the 1.0900 level. GBP/USD ended the day battling to hang onto the 1.3100 level. Commodity-linked currencies fell against the dollar. The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.7270, while the USD/CAD pair is flirting with 1.2900.
Spot gold rose to $2,070.50 per troy ounce before plummeting to approximately $2,031. At the closing, crude oil prices were little altered, with a barrel of WTI changing hands at $123.60.
US indices recovered some ground on Tuesday, finishing with modest gains.
#Mitrade #US #Russia #WTI #Gold #USDCAD #EURUSD #GBPUSD
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Markets are optimistic, pushing high-yield assets higherToday's forex news: Markets are optimistic, pushing high-yield assets higher
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On Thursday, risk continued to take the lead amid Eastern Europe's ongoing war issue. While the Russian stock market remains closed, shares of European corporations with exposure to Russia have plummeted. Meanwhile, the government is on the verge of default due to international sanctions. However, Russia continued its aggression against Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin told French President Macron that the objectives of Russia's operation in Ukraine would be carried out regardless of the outcome.
Wall Street started the day with significant gains but shortly went red due to concerns about the war and an assertive Federal Reserve in the United States. Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairman, stated on his second day before Congress that policymakers are prepared to raise rates by more than 25 basis points in upcoming sessions, further dampening demand for high-yielding assets.
On the back of the news from Ukraine, the atmosphere improved, and markets rebounded, putting an end to the dollar's rally. Kyiv announced that it had achieved a preliminary deal with Russia to create safe corridors for civilian evacuations. A ceasefire would be observed where safe corridors are established under the terms of the agreement. Additionally, the third round of negotiations has been scheduled for next week.
Meanwhile, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that he would not rule out a future 50-basis-point rate hike, noting that there is plenty of room to raise interest rates this year.
The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1032, its lowest level since May 2020, as investors sought safety. The pair is hovering around 1.1060 as we approach the daily close. GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3350 level.
The Australian dollar was one of the best performers, with AUD/USD hitting a new 2022 high of 0.7347 and maintaining close to that level ahead of the Asian start. The USD/CAD pair increased somewhat and finished at approximately 1.2675, as crude oil prices finally eased a little.
Gold prices increased modestly. Spot gold is trading about $1,933.00 per troy ounce, remaining within Wednesday's range. WTI reached a peak of $116.51 per barrel but is currently trading around $108.00.
#Mitrade #Russia #YieldCurve #Inflation #Gold #USDJPY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #FXNEWS
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Today's Forex News: Russia’s attack fuels safe-haven assets, comToday's Forex News: Russia’s attack fuels safe-haven assets, commodities
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Eastern Europe's economic development continues to set the pace for financial markets. Mid-European morning, safe-haven assets rose as Russia intensified its airstrikes on Ukraine, with President Vladimir Putin declaring that the invasion would continue until he achieved his goal.
Generally, neutral countries join worldwide attempts to destabilize Russia. Switzerland and Finland, among others, are either shipping armour to Ukraine or participating in Moscow's financial blockade.
Meanwhile, the next round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will begin on Wednesday. Russia allegedly demanded during Monday's first round of negotiations that Ukraine agree to documenting its off-block status at the parliamentary level and organizing a vote on the subject. Additionally, Moscow wishes for Kyiv to recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and to abandon its demand for the return of Crimea to Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine has urged a halt to hostilities and the removal of Russian soldiers from its territory.
By day's end, Putin had issued a directive prohibiting foreign cash shipments from Russia in excess of $10,000 commencing March 2.
The American Dollar is up against the majority of its key competitors, most notably European currencies. The EUR/USD pair has fallen to its lowest level since June 2020 and is presently trading near 1.1130, while the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3320.
The AUD/USD pair flirted with 0.7300 before reversing course and closing barely altered at about 0.7250. The USD/CAD pair pushed higher against a backdrop of dropping equities and a backdrop of record crude oil prices, eventually finishing at approximately 1.2735.
The price of black gold rose to its highest level in seven years amid fears that supply may be impacted by the Russian war. WTI rose as high as $106.76 a barrel before reversing course to trade at $103.60.
Gold prices profited from the risk-averse climate and climbed beyond $1,940 per troy ounce, maintaining the majority of their gains through the US close.
Asian markets went up, but European and US indices sank. Government bond demand increased, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note falling below 1.70 percent.
One of the more intriguing trends is that money markets are reducing bets on aggressive rate hikes in response to renewed uncertainty on the battlefield.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak before the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.
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Despite peace talks, Russia escalates warToday's forex news: Despite peace talks, Russia escalates war
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Market sentiment remained largely risk-related. An escalating war between Russia and Ukraine prompted safe-haven assets to gap higher at the weekly opening. The sentiment temporarily improved during the early session in the US. However, no decisions were reached. There will be a new round of negotiations in a few days, but hostilities have resumed with Moscow bombarding buildings near Kyiv.
Russia ignores sanctions and financial chaos: Russia imposes a halt to foreigners' security payments. Local stock markets will be closed on Tuesday, while the RUB plummeted to record lows against the dollar.
Western countries are also intensifying their preparations for war in the Baltic. Germany and Croatia, among other countries, announced defensive preparations.
EUR/USD approached the yearly lows before bouncing back, trading around 1.1220 now. The GBP/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance and settled around 1.3400. The commodities-linked currencies performed well against the greenback, with AUD/USD trading around 0.7250 and USD/CAD at 1.2690. Switzerland's franc and Japan's yen strengthened firmly against the dollar.
The spot price of gold hovers around $1,900 a troy ounce while the WTI barrel trades around $935.30, both higher than Friday's close.
Government bond demand pushed yields lower. Meanwhile, most global indexes traded in the red.
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Eastern European tensionsEUR/USD⬆️
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Short-lived optimism ruled financial markets during London trading hours, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he believes there would not be war nor a wider escalation. However, European and American authorities have anticipated sanctions on Russia. The positive sentiment did not last long, and risk aversion dominated the US session.
The UK was the first to take action, announcing the country would sanction five Russian banks and three individuals, adding that this is just the first tranche of what the government is prepared to do. Also, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, tweeted that “the Union remains united in its support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “a first package of sanctions will be formally tabled today.”
US President Joe Biden gave a press conference on the matter. Among other things, he said: “We have no intention of fighting Russia,” adding that US forces in Europe will help Baltic allies, but "these are totally defensive moves on our part." He says the U.S. and allies "will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO."
Soft words from Biden helped Wall Street to trim part of its intraday gains, pushing the greenback lower at the end of the day.
The EUR/USD pair remained lifeless around 1.1350, while the GBP/USD pair saw a little more action but ended the day around 1.3560. The USD/CAD retreated sharply ahead of the close and settled around 1.2740, while AUD/USD advanced for a second consecutive day and settled around 07220.
Safe-havens CHF and JPY edged lower against their American rival, while Gold Prices consolidated gains, with spot now trading around $1,900 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices edged lower, with WTI settled at $91.60 a barrel.
Markit flash PMIs for the EU, and the US were generally encouraging, indicating economic expansion in February as the world seems ready to put an end to the global health crisis.
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Russia terminates diplomatic discussions , Dollar Rises
Today's forex news: Russia terminates diplomatic discussions, boosting the dollar.
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Risk aversion dominated financial markets, owing to growing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The greenback gained strength against high-yielding counterparts but lost ground against safe-haven counterparts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. The international community views this action as the first step toward an invasion, effectively ending negotiations with Western nations.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel stated that the EU is prepared to react strongly if Russia acknowledges Donbas independence, which Putin did early.
Markit released its preliminary estimates for the EU's February PMIs. The services sector saw a strong recovery, with the German index rising to 56.6 and the EU index reaching 55.8. Both economies' manufacturing PMIs came in lower than predicted but far above the 50-point threshold separating recession from economic expansion.
EUR/USD is reaching 1.1300, while GBP/USD is battling to stay above 1.3600. Commodity-linked currencies have depreciated against the dollar. AUD/USD is around 0.7190, while USD/CAD is 1.2760. despite gold trading above $1,903 per troy ounce on the desire for safety and crude oil prices surging on disruption fears, with WTI presently trading at $92.75 per barrel.
While US markets were closed in observance of President Day, stock futures fell sharply on Russia/Ukraine news. European and Asian futures are also lower, implying a risk-off day on Tuesday.
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All eyes are on Federal Reserve officials and Russian diplomacyToday’s Forex News: All eyes are on Federal Reserve officials and Russian diplomacy.
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The market sentiment has been rattled by the bad developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Latest headlines from eastern Ukraine that Russia will extend military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday, the Belarusian defense ministry announced, has added fuel to the fire.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the Ukrainian military for the escalation of hostilities in the Donbas during a phone chat with French President Emmanuel Macron, according to the BBC.
While additional US warnings about an impending Russian invasion continued to weigh on risk sentiment on Friday night, developments are likely to be a significant mover of markets this week.
The economic calendar is packed with events for the coming week. We'll hear from a chorus of Fed officials, as well as the PCE report and Markit PMIs. Fed policymakers will be busy this week attempting to lead the market ahead of the March FOMC meeting and assessing evidence of prolonged data strength in Q1, notably in the area of inflation. The majority of attention will be on Governor Waller, who will discuss the US economic outlook on 24 February.
EUR/USD decreased from 1.1377 to 1.1315.
The previous support level of 1.1350 has become fresh resistance in EUR/USD. The price is declining, and the target is 1.1250.
On the GBP/USD pair, significant bids have been noted near 1.3580.
The AUD/USD currency pair is trading lower, attempting to find support at 0.7150.
USD/CAD has a bullish bias near 1.2750.
XAU/USD traded in a range of $1,886.66 to $1,902.54.
Although anxieties among energy bulls may have played a role in the black gold's first weekly drop in several weeks, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine, combined with OPEC+ supply concerns, has kept WTI purchasers hopeful. WTI crude oil prices are trading at $91.45, up 1.30 percent intraday.
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Safe-haven assets in demand. Not DollarToday's Forex News: Safe-haven assets in demand, but not the dollar
Ukraine's crisis with Russia continued to dominate headlines and supported demand for safe-haven assets, even as speculative interest shifted away from the dollar. After both countries blamed one other for shelling that occurred early Thursday in the Donbass territory, major pairs stayed flat at familiar levels.
The situation deteriorated throughout the day, culminating in the breakdown of diplomatic discussions. Not only do Western nations fear Russia is not retiring, but is preparing for an invasion. Russia expelled US diplomats from their embassy and accused Washington of neglecting its security requests, while US President Joe Biden accused Moscow of fabricating drama in order to justify an invasion.
Additionally, the US Secretary of Defense stated that Russian forces are advancing toward the Ukrainian border. US Ambassador to the UN noted the"t: "the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion. This is a crucial moment."
Gold benefited the most from the risk-averse atmosphere, trading at over $1,900.00 per troy ounce, its best level since June 2021. The GBP/USD pair extended gains over the 1.3600 level, however the EUR/USD pair has remained stalled around 1.1350.
The CHF and JPY both hit new weekly highs against their American counterparts on the back of safe-haven buying, while commodity-linked currencies held close to their starting levels.
Crude oil prices fell somewhat, pressured down by the bearish tone in equities, and WTI is currently trading at roughly $91.40 a barrel.
Asian and European equities ended mixed, while US indexes remained negative headed into the close. Government bond yields, on the other hand, decreased slightly as demand for bonds surged.
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Fed less hawkish than expected ; rising geopolitical tensionEUR/USD⬆️
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The US dollar on Wednesday slipped lower despite positive US statistics and continued worry over Russian-Ukrainian border tensions. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most recent FOMC meeting, which indicated that policymakers are willing to raise rates but made no mention of a 50 basis point increase in March.
US Retail Sales increased by 3.8 percent in January, far more than predicted, while Industrial Production increased by 1.4 percent, compared to the 0.4 percent forecast.
Regarding geopolitical concerns, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service chief recently reported that Russia was relocating approximately ten fighting groups to the area near Ukraine, where further formations are already awaiting deployment.
European indices ended the day in the red, albeit with minor losses. Wall Street spent most of the day in the red but has since recovered and is currently trading near its opening levels following the FOMC Minutes.
Government bond yields stayed near the top of their weekly range, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield hanging near 2.05 percent.
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1390, while GBP/USD is flirting with 1.3600, despite the dollar's broad weakening. The AUD/USD pair is also up, trading near 0.7200, while the USD/CAD pair is lower, hanging about 1.2670. Oil prices are weighing on the CAD, as the black gold has fallen dramatically from its daily high and is currently trading at roughly $92.50 a barrel.
Iran's senior nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, stated that after weeks of intensive talks, the JCPOA's members, including the US and Iran, are closer than ever to reaching an agreement. Nevertheless, he continued, "nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon."
Safe-haven currencies advanced against the dollar, with the USD/CHF rate falling to 0.9210.
Gold has pushed up and is currently trading about $1870 per troy ounce.
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The Ukraine crisis has had an impact on global marketsoday’s Forex news: The Ukraine crisis has had an impact on global markets
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There has been an impact on global markets caused by the Ukraine crisis. Russia has more than 100,000 troops massed near Ukraine and the US has repeatedly said an invasion is imminent. However, Moscow denies any such plans and has accused the West of “hysteria” and markets are of the mind that diplomacy will prevail.
Comments from US President Joe Biden raised concerns of an imminent military attack by Russia over Ukraine. Not only the US but the UK and Eurozone leaders also flashed worrisome signals for the much-debated geopolitical event.
It’s worth noting, however, that Russian President Vladimir Putin termed any such claims as ‘provocative speculation’, per AFP News. However, market players seemed to not believe in Putin’s comments, Standoff with Russia over Ukraine heads into most tense week yet. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields lick their wounds around 1.95%, after shedding over 11 basis points (bps) the previous day. Further, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time.
In UK, uncertainty around the January Consumer Price Index release is high, in part because of the CPI basket re-weighting, but also due to significant surprises in other countries January CPI prints. In the UK, fuel prices likely fell slightly while food prices continued to accelerate, leaving inflation little changed from Dec. But look for inflation to rise from here, peaking above 7% in April. The data will be out on Wednesday 16 February.
In other events for the week, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released and traders will be on the lookout for discussions regarding near-term policy plans. market will be paying particular attention to plans for balance sheet normalization steps, following the release of the normalization "principles" in Jan. The minutes might seem stale, however, given the recent strength in macro data. The focus will then turn to US Retail Sales where an improvement on December's sharp decline could be supportive to the US dollar.
the UK's labour force will be put under the spotlight as well this week in the labour market report. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be closely watching labour market tightness. Market expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, with some softening in wage growth. Flash Jan PAYE data will provide further insights on Omicron-period hiring; firms hired at their fastest pace on record in Dec.
The pound's strength against the dollar of late has been down to the expectations of the Bank of England. There are as many as another 150 bps in increases are priced in for the remainder of the year by the Bank of England compared to nearly 170 bps by the US Federal Reserve. However, there are economic headwinds that could weigh on the pound down to surging inflation.
GBP/USD remains At 1.3566 ,which is 0.14% higher in the open this week as markets find solace in the absence of any weekend escalation with regards to Russia and the US warning that an invasion of Ukraine could begin any day. The announcements roiled markets on Friday and GBP/USD fell almost 70 pips to a low of 1.3545.
The major currency pair dropped the most in two weeks the previous day while EUR/USD remained on the back foot during the early Asian session on Monday, despite recent inaction around 1.1340-45.
Alternatively, a clear upside past 1.1485 isn’t a green card to the EUR/USD bulls as another resistance zone comprising October 2021 lows near 1.1530 will challenge the pair’s upside momentum.
USD/CAD consolidates recent gains inside a bearish channel formation, stepping back from the resistance line to 1.2730 during Monday’s Asian session.
AUD/USD under pressure due to US warnings of a Russian invasion.AUD/USD ended lower by 0.50% as well to 0.7130, with its bullish campaign potentially coming to a swift end at this juncture.
NZD/USD begins the week on a softer footing near 0.6645, fading the corrective pullback from intraday low following a two-day decline.
XAU/USD grinds below $1,873 hurdle on inflation, geopolitical fears
WTI crude oil prices remain firmer around $93.00, up 0.85% intraday after refreshing the multi-day peak during Monday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold rose to the fresh high since September 2021 while flashing a $93.17 level before a few minutes.
It’s worth noting that the recent indecision over the Fed’s rate hike and cautious optimism also underpins oil prices. Additionally, the OPEC+ members’ inability to match the production hike targets amid geopolitical concerns also favors the oil buyers.
Looking forward, WTI crude oil prices are likely depending upon heading concerning Russia invasion and Fed-rate-hike with weekly inventories and FOMC minutes will be the key data/events to watch for intermediate moves.
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Strong optimism weighs on the dollar
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Falling government bond yields pulled down the American dollar, which closed the day mixed across the board.
The 10-year Treasury note yield is currently around 1.93 percent, down from its weekly high of 1.97 percent.
The GBP/USD pair trades at around 1.3525 daily, while the EUR/USD pivots approximately 1.1430. The best performances were commodity-linked currencies, with the AUD/USD trading in the 0.7180 price range and the USD/CAD falling to 1.2670. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, addressed the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, emphasizing the significance of supply-chain difficulties in increased inflation. He expressed confidence that the problems would be resolved soon, even though the present truckers' disagreement could exacerbate the situation.
Gold reached a high of $1,835.81 per troy ounce and stayed there for the rest of the day. Crude oil prices were barely altered after the day, with WTI trading at $89.40 a barrel.
One day before the January Consumer Price Index release, the White House issued a warning about rising inflation.
Global indices ended the day in the green, with Wall Street gaining ground thanks to a rebound in the tech sector and positive earnings reports.
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