Dollar continues to weaken ahead of BOE, ECBToday’s Forex News: Dollar continues to weaken ahead of BOE, ECB
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On Wednesday, the dollar fell further, hitting new weekly lows against high-yielding peers. With the EU yearly Consumer Price Index rising to 5.1 percent in January, it outperformed expectations of 4.4 percent and 5 percent. A day before the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy, and the reading increased pressure on the central bank to tighten policy.
Government bond yields were near the weekly low.
The GBP/USD pair is nearing a daily high of 1.3587 after Wall Street rebounded from an early sell-off to close in the green. ADP poll showed the private sector lost 301K jobs in January, far more than expected, raising concerns about the country's economic recovery.
AUD/USD is around 0.7140, while USD/CAD is 1.2660. Safe-haven currencies have risen against the dollar.
Gold rose slightly intraday to $1,808 an ounce, while crude oil prices held stable around Tuesday's close. WTI closed at $88.10.
After a sluggish start, US indices rallied. The DJIA gained over 200 points.
The ECB and the BoE will publish their monetary policy decisions on Thursday.
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The dollar remains weakEUR/USD⬆️
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The dollar fell again on Tuesday, though losses were limited. The EUR/USD pair ended the day steady at 1.1240/50 as disappointing EU data capped the shared currency.
Despite the UK's political uncertainty, GBP/USD ended the day at about 1.3510. Despite the RBA's refusal to hint at a faster rate hike, the AUD/USD pair is around intraday highs near 0.7110. The USD/CAD pair ended steady due to lower oil prices.
However, Wall Street spent the day bouncing around its opening level, trading mixed but directionless.
Bond rates fell early in the day but rose throughout US trading hours based on encouraging local data. The 10-year US Treasury note yield has been increased from 1.73 percent to 1.80 percent.
Officials from the US Federal Reserve were on the lines, delivering confusing signals on rate hike schedules. Bullard indicated we would favor a March raise, while he prefers May. Atlanta's Bostic warned that expectations might arise from the Fed's 2% to 4% earlier in the day. Overall, regulators are reducing the impact of rising stock prices.
Gold is stuck at $1,800, unable to gain further. Crude oil prices fluctuated throughout the day, ending modestly lower. WTI is now trading at $87.90.
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Mitrade :The dollar eases EUR/USD⬇️
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The dollar slipped against most major currencies as speculative interest shifted away from the US Federal Reserve's relentless tightening towards foreign central banks and US employment data.
As a result of rising inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision is expected early on Tuesday.
The ECB and the Bank of England will make monetary policy decisions later this week. Finally, the US will release January Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
Wall Street held on to solid gains heading into the daily close, putting pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields fell to roughly 1.77 percent.
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1230, while the GBP/USD is 1.3460. The AUD/USD is around 0.7070, and the USD/CAD is just around 1.2700. Against the dollar, safe-haven currencies gained.
Gold spot struggles to break $1,800, holing nearby. WTI is trading at $88.12 a barrel, up the trim on the day.
A report by senior civil servant Sue Gray revealed many parties, some of which the PM attended, and a lack of leadership in his government during the early stages of coronavirus lockdowns. "Difficult to justify" gatherings, the report says.
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Dollar and Fed dominateToday's forex market: Dollar and Fed dominate
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The market was dominated by the dollar and the Fed following the US central bank's near-confirmation of a March rate hike, fuelling anticipation of at least four raises this year. The greenback received additional support from positive growth numbers, with Q4 GDP coming in at 6.9 percent, significantly higher than the projected 5.5 percent. Meanwhile, as expected, unemployment claims for the week ended January 14 came in at 260K.
The US currency extended its post-Fed rise to a multi-month high against the common currency, as the EUR/USD fell to 1.1130. GBP/USD plummeted to 1.3354, a one-month low, before stabilizing near that level.
Commodity-linked currencies also declined, with the AUD/USD trading near 0.7030 and the USD/CAD near 1.2730. Gold prices have plummeted, going below $1,800 per troy ounce. Crude oil prices surged to new multi-year highs but slowed in the run-up to the daily close, with WTI settling at $86.80 a barrel.
Wall Street began the day on a solid note, with significant intraday gains. However, it reversed direction in the final hours of trade, with indexes slipping into the red. US Treasury yields have fallen from Wednesday's high, with the 10-year note yielding 1.78 percent. Despite the changing direction of equity markets and rates, the greenback maintained gains.
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Powell says there's room for rate hikes- XAU EUR GBP AUD CAD JPYXAU🔽
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Following the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, the dollar finished Wednesday firmly higher across the board.
Rates and the taper were left unchanged, as expected, while the statement states that "the Committee anticipates it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate." Most market players had priced in a rate hike in March ahead of the event. There were no comments on the balance sheet, but the market did not expect them.
Chief Jerome Powell's news conference was a mixed bag. He expressed concern about the current epidemic of global health crisis and its potential to harm the economy while also predicting that inflation will fall this year. He went on to say that incoming data would determine the rate-hike path and that it is "difficult" to expect, but that there is plenty of room to raise rates.
Gold was one of the poorest performers, losing around $ 30.00 per troy ounce. The price of the gleaming gold was agreed at $1,816 per troy ounce. Crude oil prices managed to hold their gains, with WTI falling from a daily high of $87.92 to close at roughly $86.50 a barrel.
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1240, while GBP/USD is trading around 1.3460. The AUD/USD pair is approaching the weekly low of 0.7089, while the USDCAD is now trading at 1.2670. The USD/JPY currency pair is now trading at 114.60.
Government bond yields in the United States rose in response to the news, with the 10-year Treasury note reaching 1.857 percent.
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Market remain unstable AUDUSD EURUSDAUD/USD🔼
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Tuesday's trading session was marred by choppy, unexpected trading conditions for the second consecutive day. The S&P 500 is still trading in the red ahead of the US close. Still, it has rebounded sharply from earlier session lows, providing a sense of foreboding following yesterday's fierce late-session rally. As a result of the recent sensitivity of G10 FX markets to equity market volatility, the net result is a somewhat pro-risk bias. The Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly higher on the day but has retreated from previous highs in the 96.20s to trade below the significant figure.
The USD shrugged off mixed Consumer Confidence data. The headline index fell marginally but not as much as feared due to inflation and pandemic (Omicron) fear, and somewhat faster than expected home price increase in November. Markets' primary focus is on
1) Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and
2) geopolitics, both of which have been cited as reasons for risk asset underperformance and increased safe-haven demand.
However, one day ahead of what is projected to be an extremely hawkish Fed meeting (the Fed is predicted to approve multiple raises and QT in 2022), the most risk-sensitive G10 currencies performed nicely.
The Australian and Canadian dollar both gained roughly 0.3 percent on the day against the dollar, relegating them to second and third place in terms of G10 performance, trailing the high beta NOK, which gained 0.5 percent. The Australian dollar rebounded over 0.7150/$ on hawkish RBA wagers following a hotter-than-expected Q4 2021 Consumer Price Inflation report that will have surprised the central bank.
Hawkish central bank wagers are also bolstering the loonie. A minority of experts expect the Bank of Canada to surprise the market on Wednesday with a 25 basis point rate hike. Rather than that, the bank is more likely to adjust its forward guidance on rate hikes to reflect the current run of positive economic indicators, implying a rate hike is imminent in March.
GBP/USD was another risk-sensitive G10 currency that performed well on Tuesday, with GBP/USD returning above the 1.3500 level as FX markets continue to disregard the uncertain political backdrop in the United Kingdom. With London police investigating charges that Downing Street parties violated lockdown rules, Boris Johnson's position as Prime Minister appears precarious.
In terms of the rest of the G10 currencies, the JPY and NZD were flat against the dollar on the day, with USD/JPY trading just below 114.00 and NZD/USD trading just below 0.6700 ahead of December New Zealand trade numbers.
Despite positive German Ifo survey findings released during the European morning, the euro fell 0.2 percent against the dollar, with EUR/USD harmed by technical selling following a fall below a significant long-term uptrend in play since late November. The pair is currently trading around 1.1300, rebounding from earlier lows in the 1.1260s, its lowest level in almost a month.
Finally, CHF was the day's notable G10 underperformer, with EUR/CHF appreciating 0.4 percent to the 1.0375 range and USD/CHF gaining 0.6 percent to reach 0.9200 for the first time in almost two weeks amid speculation regarding SNB intervention.
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Risky currencies reboundMarkets were hit by a wave of risk aversion on Monday, benefitting the safe-havens and hurting the risk-sensitive currencies, though the latter group had pared back on much of their earlier underperformance by the end of US trade as risk appetite recovered. Market commentators said that geopolitical concerns about the rising risk of a new Russian/Ukrainian military conflict and equity investor worries about Fed tightening were the main drivers of the broadly downbeat tone on Monday.
As it became clear that the risk asset sell-off (led by US equities) had gone too far, dip-buyers returned to the market and the major US equity indices enjoyed a ferocious intra-day recovery from lows. The S&P 500 ended the session 0.3% higher, up an incredible 4.5% versus earlier intra-day lows.
The hardest risk-sensitive currencies recovered in tandem. AUD/USD, which had dipped as low as the 0.7090s where it traded over 1.1% lower, recovered back to the 0.7140 area, down a comparatively modest 0.5% on the day. Coming up on Tuesday, Aussie traders will be watching key Q4 Consumer Price Inflation data that could, if hotter than expected, bolster hawkish RBA policy bets and further facilitate the rebound.
USD/CAD, which had risen as much as 1.0% to above 1.2700, was last trading in the 1.2630 area, up about 0.4% on the day. NZD/USD, which was last down 0.2%, recovered back to 0.6700 from an earlier dip as low as the 0.6660 mark, which was its lowest point since November 2020. Kiwi traders also await key Consumer Price Inflation data for Q4 out on Thursday.
Finally amongst the more risk-sensitive G10 currencies, GBP/USD recovered back to the 1.3480s from a brief dip below 1.3450, where it continues to trade lower by about 0.5% on the session. Broadly weaker than anticipated flash January PMIs didn’t help sterlings cause, though arguably support the case for more BoE rate hikes given their continued strong inflationary signal.
USD was the safe haven of choice and the top-performing G10 currency of the day, with the DXY rising about 0.3%, though in the end failing to hold above the 96.00 level as risk-appetite recovered later in the session. Nonetheless, it reached its highest point in two weeks, aided by hawkish Fed chatter/concerns, while much weaker than expected flash Services PMI data was shrugged off as a result of the temporary Omicron impact rather than any underlying economic weakness.
JPY, EUR and CHF all look on course to end the day about 0.2% lower versus the buck, with EUR/USD holding above 1.1300, USD/JPY rising back to the 114.00 area and USD/CHF rising back towards 0.9150.