Moderna (MRNA) Stock Plummets on Weak Sales OutlookModerna Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) is facing tough times as its stock dropped over 11% during Thursday’s premarket trading session. The biotech giant, known for its breakthrough COVID-19 vaccine, released a disappointing sales outlook for the upcoming years, sparking a significant sell-off among investors.
Weak Sales Outlook and Pipeline Adjustments
Moderna (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) has projected sales between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion for 2025, a far cry from the multi-billion dollar revenues seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This forecast falls below analysts’ expectations, who anticipated revenues of $3.27 billion for 2024 and $3.74 billion for 2025.
The company’s revenue has been declining since the pandemic boom, with 2023 expected to be the lowest annual revenue since its first COVID-19 vaccine launch in late 2020. Moderna (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) is now betting on its 10 new product launches by 2027 to drive an average annual growth rate of 25% in revenue between 2026 and 2028. However, Moderna CFO James Mock highlighted the uncertainty of the COVID-19 and RSV markets, admitting that these new products may not contribute significant revenue until later years.
Moderna’s strategic pivot includes significant cost-cutting measures, with plans to slash $1.1 billion in expenses by 2027. This includes reducing R&D spending from an expected $4.8 billion this year to between $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion by 2027. Despite these reductions, the company is still committed to advancing its pipeline, which includes new mRNA vaccines against RSV, norovirus, and cancer, among others.
Challenges Ahead: Competition and Pipeline Delays
Moderna’s market position is increasingly challenged by competitors like Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK), who are also pursuing expanded approvals for their RSV vaccines in the same high-risk adult age groups. Moderna’s recent decision to drop its request for fast-track approval of its standalone flu vaccine reflects its strategic realignment towards combination shots that offer protection against multiple viruses, including COVID-19 and influenza.
The company's standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, recently met immune-response targets in clinical trials, but it's still a long way from regulatory approval. Moderna's CEO, Stéphane Bancel, remains optimistic about the company's robust drug development capabilities, boasting that Moderna's rate of success from phase one to phase three trials is “six times higher” than the industry average.
Technical Outlook
Technically, Moderna's stock price is reflecting the weak fundamentals. The stock is down 10.45% in premarket trading, which adds to the already bearish momentum. On Wednesday, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Moderna (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) was 37, indicating a weakened position. The current dip below the $73 mark will likely push the RSI further into oversold territory, raising concerns about heightened selling pressure.
The critical technical level to watch is the $60 pivot, a major support zone that aligns with the September 2020 lows. Should Moderna’s stock breach this support, it could trigger a cascade of selling as investors lose confidence, potentially leading to a more severe downturn. This level has historically served as a strong base, and a breakdown could erase gains made over the last four years.
What’s Next for Moderna?
While Moderna’s long-term prospects hinge on the successful launch of its new mRNA-based therapies, the immediate outlook appears bleak. The company’s efforts to expand into new markets like RSV and flu vaccines are promising, but the revenue impact of these products won’t be felt until at least 2025. Investors should brace for volatility as the company navigates through a post-pandemic market landscape with reduced COVID-19 vaccine sales and increasing competition.
For now, Moderna's technical indicators signal caution. The stock's proximity to major support zones and the bearish momentum could prompt further declines if market sentiment does not improve. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on how the company’s strategic decisions unfold and whether Moderna (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) can successfully deliver on its ambitious pipeline goals in the face of growing market challenges.
Moderna
MRNA, bound for exponential growth! MASSIVE RISE in 12 months!MRNA went parabolic during the COVID era reaching as high as 500. Then it went on a cooling down mode coincindingly when the pandemic has started fading.
Now a BIG SHIFT has been registered based on its long term data metrics. This is massive because it took the stock 2.5 years to make this happen again.
A breakout has been spotted on its long term trend. We got a break in structure confirming that major position takers has started piling up already for that new round of massive growth prospect.
Histogram registered it's elusive 'hop' over the line already. First time in ages. The most awaited confirmation is ON.
Best seeding season is NOW.
This will be an investors' gem.
Spotted at 140.0
Interim target at 300.0
Long term: 500.
TAYOR.
Moderna Stock Dips More Than 20% Amid Slashed Sales GuidanceModerna Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) experienced a significant drop in its stock price, plummeting over 20%, following the announcement of reduced full-year sales guidance. The biotech company, renowned for its mRNA technology, reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations but highlighted several challenges that led to the downward revision of its revenue forecast.
Q2 Performance Overview
Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) reported a narrower-than-expected loss of $3.33 per share, compared to analyst expectations of a $3.39 loss. The company's revenue for the second quarter stood at $241 million, surpassing the anticipated $132 million. However, this figure still represents a 30% year-over-year decline from the $344 million reported in the same period last year. The decrease was primarily driven by a 37% drop in product sales from its Covid-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which brought in $184 million during the quarter.
Slashed Full-Year Guidance
Despite the better-than-expected quarterly performance, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) reduced its 2024 product revenue guidance to a range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion, down from the previous forecast of $4 billion. The company attributed this adjustment to several factors:
1. Lower Sales in Europe: Moderna cited reduced demand for its Covid-19 vaccine in Europe as a major contributor to the lowered guidance.
2. Competitive U.S. Market: The company faces stiff competition in the U.S. market for respiratory vaccines, particularly for its newly approved respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, mRESVIA. This vaccine, which targets older adults, entered a market already dominated by Pfizer and GSK.
3. Deferred International Revenue: Moderna indicated the potential for delayed international revenue, pushing some sales into 2025 due to ongoing budget constraints and economic pressures in various countries, including those exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook
In response to these challenges, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) has been proactive in reducing operating costs. The company's cost of sales for Q2 was $115 million, down 84% from the same period last year. This reduction includes $14 million in write-downs of unused Covid-19 vaccine doses and $55 million in charges related to scaling back its manufacturing footprint.
CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized the company's commitment to managing costs and optimizing its product pipeline. He noted, “We’ve been having quite intense discussions with governments across Europe to secure Covid vaccine supply contracts, but tight budgets and existing agreements with other suppliers have limited our opportunities.”
Despite the current setbacks, Moderna remains optimistic about its future. The company expects to return to sales growth in 2025 and aims to break even by 2026. Key to this strategy is the launch of new products and continued innovation within its pipeline. Moderna currently has 45 products in development, with five in late-stage trials. These include a combination shot targeting Covid-19 and the flu, which could receive approval as early as 2025, a stand-alone flu vaccine, and a personalized cancer vaccine in collaboration with Merck.
Investor Sentiment and Market Response
While Moderna's shares have risen nearly 20% this year due to increasing confidence in its pipeline and mRNA platform, the recent guidance cut has significantly impacted investor sentiment.
Modern stock ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) has dropped from its consolidation zone and has formed a significant downward gap. In trading, gapping happens when the price of a security jumps to a new price that's not right next to the previous price, creating a gap on the price chart. This can occur during a trading day or when the markets are closed. Gaps can happen unexpectedly when the perceived value of an investment changes due to fundamental or technical factors, such as earnings. In this case, NASDAQ:MRNA is in a downward gap, also known as a negative gap, which occurs when the opening price of a stock on the second day is lower than the closing price on the first day.
Conclusion
Moderna's recent financial performance highlights the volatility and competitive nature of the biotech industry, particularly in the evolving landscape of respiratory vaccines. While the company faces immediate challenges, its strategic cost management and robust pipeline position it for potential recovery and growth in the coming years.
MRNA Moderna Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MRNA at all time high:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MRNA Moderna prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 115usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $8.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Moderna Breaks Out 12.68% For The First Time In A YearModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) stock broke out for the first time in a year after beating Wall Street's first-quarter expectations as its second potential approval looms. The company hopes to win Food and Drug Administration approval for its RSV vaccine, which causes cold-like symptoms in most people but can be serious or deadly in babies and older adults. The FDA is due to make its decision on Moderna's shot in less than two weeks. Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) hopes to launch its vaccine for older adults this fall. If approved, this would be Moderna's second commercial product behind its Covid vaccine.
Moderna's Covid vaccine sales plummeted nearly 91% to $167 million during the first quarter, but handily beat analysts' forecast for $93 million. The European Union plans to buy up to 36 million doses of its Covid vaccine each year for at least four years. The company expects "higher vaccination uptake" in the U.S. if its updated Covid vaccine is available in time with the seasonal flu shot.
From a financial standpoint, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is retaining its outlook for the year. The company expects to notch $4 billion in sales of its respiratory vaccines. That will be weighted to the back half of the year with less than $300 million in sales projected for the first half of 2024. Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) stock analysts project $4.19 billion in full-year revenue, including $4.06 billion in sales from the company's products.
The RSV vaccine could be a big moneymaker for Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ). Pfizer and GSK launched their RSV shots for older adults last year, with Abrysvo and Arexvy generating $145 million and $228 million in sales respectively. Moderna stock analysts already expect some sales of Moderna's product — $10 million in the June quarter, according to FactSet.
Moderna is ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) also planning to work with U.S. regulators on the timing of its next Covid vaccine. Officials will choose the next variant to target in booster shots on May 16, then it will be off to the races, so to speak, to run testing for Moderna's updated shot. Moderna's goal is to launch the Covid booster shot in timing with the fall flu vaccine campaign.
Moderna's Vaccine Spark Hope in Head and Neck Cancer TreatmentIn a significant breakthrough for cancer treatment, Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) individualized cancer vaccine, developed in collaboration with Merck, has shown remarkable promise in an early-stage trial targeting head and neck cancer. The encouraging results have ignited a surge in Moderna's stock price and injected fresh optimism into the field of oncology research.
The vaccine, mRNA-4157, aims to train the immune system to identify and combat specific mutations present in cancer cells, representing a pioneering approach in personalized cancer therapy. Following its success in treating melanoma, the vaccine has now demonstrated positive responses in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, a challenging form of cancer.
Data presented at the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting showcased the vaccine's efficacy when administered in combination with Merck's Keytruda. The study, involving 22 patients, revealed promising clinical responses, including instances of complete remission. Notably, the combination therapy not only triggered robust immune responses but also exhibited favorable safety profiles, marking a significant milestone in cancer immunotherapy.
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee lauded the results, highlighting the potential of Moderna's therapy platform to transcend melanoma and extend its benefits to other cancer types. The data underscore the transformative potential of mRNA-based vaccines in revolutionizing cancer treatment paradigms and offering new hope to patients grappling with advanced malignancies.
The positive outcome has bolstered investor confidence in Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ), propelling its shares to a three-month high. This uptrend reflects renewed enthusiasm for the biotech firm's diverse pipeline, which includes groundbreaking vaccines targeting respiratory syncytial virus and other infectious diseases, alongside innovative cancer therapies.
Looking ahead, Moderna's collaboration with Merck signals a concerted effort to advance the development of cancer immunotherapies. The initiation of a Phase 3 trial targeting lung cancer underscores the commitment to translating promising preclinical data into clinically meaningful outcomes, to deliver transformative therapies to patients in need.
As Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) continues to pioneer the frontier of mRNA-based therapeutics, the recent success of its cancer vaccine heralds a new era in precision medicine. With further advancements and clinical validations, this innovative approach holds the potential to reshape the landscape of cancer treatment and offer renewed hope for patients battling this devastating disease.
$MRNA Bearish to Bullish Reversal NASDAQ:MRNA Bearish to Bullish Reversal
A "Bearish to Bullish Reversal" in technical analysis for NASDAQ:MRNA suggests a shift in the stock's price movement pattern from a downward trend (bearish) to an upward trend (bullish). This reversal typically occurs after a period of decline, indicating that the stock may be transitioning from a bearish phase to a bullish phase. It could signify a potential turning point in market sentiment, with investors becoming more optimistic about the stock's future prospects. Traders often look for confirmation signals to validate this reversal, such as increased trading volume or positive fundamental developments in the company.
Moderna Surge as it Dives into Promising Cancer Vaccine TrialsModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ), a biotechnology company at the forefront of mRNA technology, is experiencing a significant surge in its stock price, climbing over 10% to surpass the $114 per share mark. This rally marks Moderna's highest level since January, reflecting a remarkable turnaround from its challenges in 2023. The resurgence of Moderna's stock can be attributed to several key factors that are igniting investor enthusiasm and confidence in the company's future prospects.
One of the primary catalysts driving Moderna's stock rally is the initiation of a mid-stage clinical trial for its experimental cancer vaccine targeting cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, a prevalent form of skin cancer. This groundbreaking trial, conducted in collaboration with Merck, underscores Moderna's commitment to pioneering innovative solutions in oncology.
In addition to advancements in oncology, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) continues to make significant strides in addressing infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases. Despite the challenges posed by the endemic market, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) reported notable pipeline advancements in its fourth-quarter results. The company anticipates initial regulatory approvals for its RSV vaccine (mRNA-1345) starting in the first half of 2024, further bolstering its position in the market.
Moreover, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) remains optimistic about its COVID-19 franchise, projecting profitability in anticipated sales scenarios for 2024 and beyond. With approximately $4 billion in product sales expected in 2024, primarily driven by COVID-19 vaccine sales and the launch of its RSV vaccine, Moderna is poised for robust growth in the coming years.
Technical Analysis
Shares of Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is exhibiting a bullish Flag pattern indicating the NASDAQ:MRNA has reacted to the Promising Cancer Vaccine Trials news. With a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 68.74 NASDAQ:MRNA shares is gaining momentum.
Looking ahead, Moderna's pipeline update revealed a promising outlook, with 45 therapeutic and vaccine programs, nine of which are in late-stage development. Notably, the Phase 3 trial of its combination vaccine against seasonal flu and COVID-19 has been fully enrolled, with data expected in 2024. These developments underscore Moderna's commitment to innovation and its potential to deliver groundbreaking therapies to address critical unmet medical needs.
In conclusion, Moderna's recent stock rally reflects growing optimism and confidence in the company's innovative pipeline, particularly in the areas of oncology and infectious diseases. With promising clinical trials underway and a robust portfolio of vaccine candidates, Moderna is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market opportunities and drive long-term value for investors. As the company continues to make strides in pioneering mRNA technology, investors can expect Moderna to remain at the forefront of medical innovation, potentially revolutionizing the treatment landscape for various diseases, including cancer.
Pharmaceutical Giants Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThe biggest pharma giants are easy to recognize. Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Moderna, Merck & Co, Danaher Corp, Thermo Fisher Scientific. All medications and pharmaceutical drugs come out of these drug corporations. Lab equipment, medical research, vaccines, and other life science developments come out of these conglomerate pharma giants.
Support and Resistance is clear with these schematics. All clusters are laid over appropriately.
Moderna's Surprising Profit Signals Post-Pandemic PivotModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ), the pioneering vaccine maker, reported a surprise fourth-quarter profit, sending ripples of optimism through the market. Bolstered by unexpected revenue and strategic cost-cutting measures, the company's resilience amid shifting tides in the pharmaceutical landscape has drawn both attention and applause.
Unveiling the Numbers:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) fourth-quarter profit stood at a commendable $217 million, or 55 cents a share, defying analyst expectations of a substantial loss. This unexpected triumph was fueled by a combination of factors, including unforeseen deferred revenue and a strategic overhaul in manufacturing operations. The company's ability to navigate challenges and adapt swiftly underscores its agility and forward-thinking approach.
Navigating the COVID-19 Landscape:
While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine continues to be its flagship product, generating substantial revenue, the company is strategically diversifying its portfolio. Despite a decline in COVID vaccine sales from 2022 to 2023, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) remains steadfast in its commitment to innovation. The imminent approval decision for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shot marks a significant milestone in this diversification strategy, offering a glimpse into the company's post-pandemic roadmap.
Looking Beyond COVID:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) ambitious roadmap extends far beyond the realm of COVID-19. With plans to launch its RSV shot in key markets and a robust pipeline of experimental shots targeting influenza, cancer, and cytomegalovirus, the company is poised for a transformative journey. Despite concerns over efficacy declines compared to rival offerings, Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) unwavering focus on research and development signals a bold leap into uncharted territories.
International Endeavors:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) participation in the EU Health Emergency and Response Authority’s tendering procedure underscores its commitment to global health initiatives. By prioritizing key international markets and aligning with strategic partners, the company aims to broaden its reach and impact. The forthcoming decision on the EU tender is poised to shape the company's trajectory in the global arena, setting the stage for future collaborations and expansions.
Charting the Course Ahead:
As Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) reaffirms its 2024 forecast amidst shifting market dynamics, the company remains steadfast in its pursuit of excellence. With a projected $4 billion in sales and a focus on operational execution, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is poised to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in the years ahead.
Conclusion:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) unexpected profit surge and strategic roadmap offer a compelling narrative of resilience and innovation in a rapidly evolving landscape. With eyes set on new horizons and a steadfast resolve, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) emerges as a beacon of hope in the post-pandemic world.
Moderna Break of Major Support, Short PotentialThis is a Technical Analysis on Moderna (MRNA) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Current price action shows that we are currently in the process of breaking a MAJOR SUPPORT Zone.
We held critical SUPPORT multiple times ABOVE the $115.00 level, for a span of about 26 months. Expressed by the GREEN circles. But notice we havent been able to successfully rally and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line.
Though the CURRENT candle has not yet closed, which it will end of trading session Monday, the 7th of August.
This in my opinion is a critical development. If we CONFIRM below this $115 ish area, the lower range of about $82.00 of the ORANGE zone becomes more likely.
The ORANGE zone, or price range between $115 and $82 has barely any market structure or in other words barely any candles. It would be easy for price to fall stright down, in my opinion.
This can be an area to take a SHORT position.
Another thing to notice since the BLOW of top, we have been forming a DESCENDING TRIANGLE. Its been forming since August 2021, this is NO JOKE. Measuring the target of the end point of descending triangle we get about a 75% drop target. Just remember it doesnt have to play out exactly but its something to consider and keep in the back of the mind.
So just to mention:
1st Target = $82 ish area
2nd Target = $57- $47 range
Last Target = Descending triangle measured target of $29 ( *Less likely for the time being)
RSI has been:
1. printing Lower Highs
2. is currently below the Black Moving average, which i use as an indication of price moving down
3.Is currently in process of ALL TIME RSI LOW, provided we close this weeks candle at current RSI lvl.
STOCH RSI -> Setting up for a BEARish cross. This if it occurs and we are below the MAJOR SUPPORT, bearish momentum can push price down.
Lastly ADX & DI -> We have RED line cross above Green and pointing up. We need to observe this, this indicates also the BEARISH momentum is coming in. If the BLACK moving average curves up and starts moving towards the RED/GREEN line with RED being on top, this will indicate bearish momentum.
CONCLUSION:
We are at major cross roads for MRNA. If we don't have any buying occur during Mondays trading session, and we close below MAJOR SUPPORT, it may be time to SHORT MRNA. We have not had any luck trying to break and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line. This, along with multiple touches on MAJOR SUPPORT, has made this WEAK (in my opinion). Short targets include the primary, secondary and descending triangle target levels. Indicators are also shaping up to support the current price action. At times like this, it is important to observe further clues of bearish activity, to be patient and take it one step at a time.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
MODERNA $305 | Bidding at $220 and $150 Informed Players and speculators at Sub $100 levels are booking gains
we wait for additional drwadowns and re accomodation ACCUMULATION of designated Bankers for the next run up OR cycle
Vaccine COViD was intense HiV was the sell on News..
we await next Drama and Biden Policy on Healthcare etc..
for now Watch or Chrun at key leves (eyeball the box)
$MRNA What Up$MRNA started playing this since it was in the low $20s and then got rid of it at the start of this year. And IMO this is headed under $100. It will get a kick start when the next Pandemic happens and WHO rules lockdowns across the world. Regardless of the hype, I don't see any reason to take a position in this ticker. The only outcome is, EXIT for me :) Although it does have a promising technology but it will not be able to generate the kind of revenue it did with the Pandemic vax
Bullish Crossover for MRNA Share Appears in the HorizonModerna's share (MRNA) price has been running in a narrow price range since November 8 after a series of gains extending since October 21, surpassing the short and long-term exponential moving averages in a positive short-term sign. Meanwhile, an unclear zigzag path has dominated MRNA share since the beginning of the year.
As for now, and on the daily chart, we keep an eye on 180.13 and $198.82 as possible bullish targets, as we await the bullish crossover of the MA-25 and MA-50 to achieve the possible bullish path.
On the flip side, if MRNA share price fails to stabilize above the $162 level, the previous bullish hypothesis may be invalidated, and we may witness a pullback towards $142-135 levels (yellow shaded area).
MRNA being a good market sell?Moderna - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 186.88 (stop at 198.38)
Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (120 - 190) and we expect this to continue.
Daily signals are mildly bearish.
Posted a Double Top formation.
An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market.
Our profit targets will be 158.11 and 150.11
Resistance: 190.00 / 197.44 / 210.00
Support: 180.00 / 170.00 / 160.00
Daily chart
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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Moderna, Inc. Flashes Bearish SignalsWe have a lower high, compare this past 16-November to 4-August.
We also have a clear bearish pattern in the form of a rising wedge.
Going by the candlesticks, we can spot some bearish signals there as well.
16-Nov. Doji is a bearish candle.
18-Nov. another bearish candle, confirmation of the previous one.
Today we gapped lower which gives strength to the bears.
A correction can easily form here.
CHANGE
MRNA needs to break and close above 188.65 for the bullish momentum to resume.
Trading below 185 spells doom.
Support levels/targets are marked in light blue.
Namaste.
Moderna showing strong upside to $258.00Moderna has broken up above the 200MA...
It looks good for upside along with the American rally with (lower than expected inflation rates, high GDP numbers and higher jobs).
We just need a strong breakout above the Rectangle Box Formation before we have upside to $258.00.