Momentum Indicator (MOM)
QQQ sold off today and plummeted in after hoursQQQ started to finally show selling with momentum for first day in nearly a week of slowly selling.
It looks as though distribution phase has passed and selling with momentum has begun.
After hours etf continues to slide dramatically
Bulls have lost with bears firmly in control at the moment
The after hours sell we are experiencing now could possibly cause it to gap down on open then get filled in the morning before selling continues.
CENTUARY PLY - Moving out of the Accumulation Zone. The stock has finally moved out of the consolidation zone. Late last December, the stock met with price rejection around 850 levels and it was pushed down below the 200 DMA levels. Then it started consolidating for almost three months now. The money flow had started increasing for the past month and the relative strength also started showing signs of recovery. Today, the stock moved out of the consolidation zone with a gap-up opening and a widespread up-bar. Of course, it did meet some supply. as we can see, the close was almost in the upper mid of the bar. The stock also moved above the short-term and the long-term moving averages and we can see the convergence of the averages as well. The relative strength also is moving into the positive territory. The volume has also started increasing and we can see increase in delivery volumes as well. The momentum has been positive for almost a month now. Looks like the stock is now poised to test the rejection zone at 850 again. However, we need to see some increase in the relative strength and the momentum as well. There is also a possibility of a retest of the accumulation zone.
ADITYA BIRLA FASHIONS - Poised to moved up ?The stock saw a huge fall of about 50% from a high of 359. From the bottom, it has been struggling for almost a year to reverse the trend. And of late, you can see the attempt to move up, seeing some success. You can see a break of structure in the daily and now a break of structure in the weekly as well. The relative strength is also positive. The money flow which had dipped is now recovering. The momentum also had weakened recently and is now picking up. Today the stock moved past the price rejection zone at 277 with wide spread up bar with volume support. In the last few sessions, we saw some increase in delivery volumes indicating some interested buying coming in. If the stock sustains above 277 levels, we can see the stock moving up further north. The next destination could be 315 levels.
Info Edge (India) Ltd Showing Strong Up-Side MomentumStrong operating businesses
Strong Operating Cash generation year with a run- rate of c1000 Cr plus (pre Tax) annually and growing.
Negative working capital due to advance subscription fees (Rs 925 cr as on 31/12/23)
Asset-light business models
"Zero" Debt.
Well Defined approach towards Financial Investments
AIF structure for eventual and self-sustained independent financial investment business.
Partnered with reputed Sovereign Fund (Temasek Holdings).
AIF contribution commitment is currently pegged at ~USD 212.5m
Funds created with a term of 12-14 years.
Established Dividend payout track record.
Formal dividend policy of paying 25%-40% of standalone cash PAT.
Track record of consistent dividend payout for last 16 years. Paid 28% of cash PAT as dividend till date.
Info Edge is India’s premier online classified company with a portfolio of brands. It owns various brands in different fields like naukri.com (online recruitment), 99acres.com (online real estate), jeevansathi.com (online matrimonial) as well as shiksha.com (online education information services). It also acts as an investor and has invested in many start-ups in the online space and is actively growing its investment portfolio.
Company is almost debt free.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 55.9% CAGR over last 5 years
B2B revenues (as on date) comprise ~90% of overall Naukri revenue and includes:
Resume database access (Naukri & iimjobs)
Job Posting (response management)
Employer branding (visibility)
Application tracking tools (Zwayam)
eHire - Resume short listing and Walk-ins
Assessment services (Do-select)
■ B2C includes revenue from
Job seeker services
Career enhancement services (AmbitionBox, Coding Ninjas, Naukri Learning)
#DLINKINDIA is Near to Break Previous All Time High
Company has reduced debt.
Company is almost debt free.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 28.0% CAGR over last 5 years
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 39.8%
Strengths:
Established market position and strong distribution network: D-Link is the market leader in switches and wireless local area network (WLAN) products, with a significant market share. In fiscal 2019, the company introduced a series of high-end products for its enterprise business, including unmanaged long-term power over ethernet (PoE)/PoE plus switches; new generation layer 3 stackable managed switches with advance hardware and software enhancements for better performance, flexibility and ease of management; and industrial grade switches. D-Link has invested in state-of-the-art support infrastructure for both consumers and enterprises, which includes 10 D-Link-owned service centres with more than 50 experts in tier 1 cities, over 23 partner service centres with more than 40 experts in tier 2 / tier 3 cities, partner collection points in more than 105 cities and logistical support in over 190 cities. D-Link Technical Support Centres (DTSC) are manned by over 30 highly skilled engineers providing L1 to L3 support for all retail and enterprise customers.
Healthy financial risk profile: Networth was Rs 363 crore as on March 31, 2023, and is expected to increase over the medium term because of steady accretion to reserves and absence of debt repayment. Return on capital employed improved to 36% in fiscal 2023 as profitability increased. In the absence of any debt-funded capex, the financial risk profile is expected to remain healthy over the medium term.
Weaknesses:
Exposure to intense competition and risks inherent in the networking industry: D-Link mainly operates in the home and small and medium enterprise segments of the networking industry, where profitability is lower than that in the institutional sales segment. The latter is dominated by Cisco India and other new entrants. Profitability in the retail segment is constrained by intense competition and commoditised products.
Susceptibility to volatility in input price and currency: Copper, the key input for manufacturing cables is an open market commodity traded globally on exchanges, leading to volatility in its prices. Furthermore, fluctuations in currency also impact profitability, as the company imports about 30% of its traded products. Complete and immediate passing on of cost increases is difficult given the competitive pressure. The company experiences lag of 45-60 days in passing on price hikes. Hence, the operating margin will remain susceptible to fluctuations in raw material prices and currency. D-Link hedges currency exposure up to 70% of the total exposure by entering forward contracts.
Liquidity: Adequate
Cash accrual, expected at Rs 65-75 crore in fiscals 2024 and 2025, will support liquidity in the absence of any capex or debt obligation. Unutilised bank limit of Rs 10 crore will be adequate to fund the company’s fixed expenses. Cash surplus is expected to remain healthy over the medium term.
#NHPC Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 49.5%
The company is actively engaged in the construction of 15 Solar and Hydro Power Projects of 10449 MW Capacity (including JV & Subsidiaries). Total projects under clearance stood at 4112 MW and projects under survey stood at 4110 MW as on Dec’23.
MOUs
Company has signed a MoU on 3 Jan 2024 with GPCL for proposed investment of Rs.4000 Cr in Kuppa Pumped Storage Project (750 MW), Chhota Udaipur, Gujarat.
Company signed an MOU with Govt. of Odisha through GRIDCO Limited on 23 Jun 2023 for Development of Pumped Storage Projects and Renewable Energy in the State of Odisha.
It signed an MOU on 23 Aug 2023 with APGENCO for Implementation of Pumped Hydro Storage Projects and Renewable Energy Projects under Joint Venture Mode in Andhra Pradesh. The MOU envisages Implementation of two Identified Pumped Hydro Storage Projects namely Kamlapadu- 950 MW and Yaganti 1000 MW PSPs in the first phase.
Focus
Being a hydro power company shifting its focus toward the renewable energy segment as well. Out of 10499 MW capacity under construction 1135 MW is for Solar power. It has recently signed a contract to develop additional 2000 MW solar power capacity in Rajasthan. About 9090 MW Solar power capacity is under Tender and pipeline including as a Intermediary Procurer.
ETH is showing weakness in its long term rallyETH recently has been losing momentum. The rally now showing one of two scenarios:
Consolidation where profit taking is occuring before another rally
Reversal in the trend
We can see this weakness by identifying two aspects in the price action.
Fails to make a higher high
Breaks long term upward trend
Momentum Indicator for USDEUR turns positiveMomentum Indicator for USDEUR turns positive, indicating new upward trend
USDEUR saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on February 04, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 125 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 46 of the 125 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 37%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for USDEUR just turned positive on February 04, 2024. Looking at past instances where USDEUR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 96 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 36%.
Following a +0.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USDEUR advanced for three days, in 69 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 25%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 81 of 226 cases where USDEUR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 36%.
LONDON UJ LONG 618 ON IB IMOMENTUMUsing half of our profit from last trade, we will go for another 2R on this last setup of London. Price has yet made another playbook setup and we must heed by our trading plan and take it.
We have taken far more entries during ASIA/LONDON than we anticipated and although they were all profitable, taking these many entries is NOT what we recommend. Psychology studies suggest that the human mind can typically only make 1-2 rational emotional decisions per day and as we all know when risking capital, we are also risking our psychological capital which opens up risk of trading emotionally and going on TILT, resulting in giving our gains back to the market, or even ending up in a worse position than when we started!
The only reason we are taking this trade is because it is going to be a 'set it and forget it' type of setup, using 1R which is technically "house money" at this point.
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: 25%
70% UP IN 2 MONTHS: AMAZING STRATEGYHELLO FRIENDS!
Analyzed this stock 2 months back in my videos in my channel. Worked perfectly as per the analysis. Target is 300% which I assume may hit in 2 months.
Logic behind this trade is Stock was facing resistance of the trendline for a long time. In the third attempt in June it broke the trendline. Another logic is the stock had given breakout above the 50ma band and sustained above that for so long, which indicates bullishness of the stock and the entry of BIG BOYS.
One can notice the increasing volume bars too, which is proving the bullishness.
Entry was confirmed by the trendline breakout.
Captured 77% till today and we'll wit for the target with railing stoploss.
All levels are provided in the chart which explains everything.
I hope you all understand the logic behind the trade and will learn it.
How to use Inside bar strategyInside bar strategy is one of my personal favourites, in this section I will detail how and why I trade Inside bars to deliver more profits during a trading week. Now In my personal opinion any non profitable trader should be chomping at the bit to learn this strategy as it has the potential to really aid your trading journey. So lets breakdown what finding an Inside bar means... So above me here is the recent rally from the pair GBP/JPY , I have highlighted a few of the inside bars but if you look close enough you will see more, So an Inside bar on the daily is telling us the day before we had a strong rally this can be called candle (1), so Candle 1 is a rally, Candle 2 is inside the range of candle 1, what this means is that on lower timeframes we have seen consolidation, Price hasnt broken the high of candle 1 or the low of candle 1, so when candle 3 breaks the high of candles 1 and 2, price rallies to our target. So the entry comes after the high of candle 1 and 2 broken, you use a stop loss under the low of candle 2, and you aim for 1:1 risk reward. When is the best time to trade these candles? In strong rallies you will see this set up form alot , the reason for this is because in strong rallies, we often see rally-consolidation-rally. Typically this strategy will win around 70% of its trades and is great for entering rallying or depreciating currencies, I hope you guys can put it to use like I have over the years! any questions please feel free too comment below (This is not trading analysis this is purely to demonstrate how inside bar works and how you can use it in your trading). Enjoy the weekend!