breakdown under uptrendon the daily chart usd jpy is in a downtrend, has been retracing for the last week tho
connors rsi was greater than 80 which in the past indicated good short entry signals (idea for quant journal test the accuracy rates of indicators on each symbol)
hitting resistance at 108.282
broke under the uptrend line indicating weakness in the trend
setting stop loss at 15 pips
Take profit at 15.6 pips
usd news at 945
wait for update
Momentum Oscillators
Bitcoin and Moving AveragesAt the moment I'm using moving averages 20-50-200 and Elder's Force Index ( EFI ) and that is working really well for me in Bitcoin and other alts so I thought I would share my observations.
The 20 Weekly Moving average
As you may notice, the 20WMA is quite significant, during the previous bull market it acted as a significant support and has been the main resistance throughout the bear market. BTC is currently just over the weekly 20MA, the second time in this whole bear market! Notice also how the price dropped in the last few days to re-test it as a support and we have bounced from it. Also, the first time we went over the 20WMA was when we re-tested the weekly 50MA as a resistance and that is the only reason it had enough strength to go over the 20WMA. So overall this is very positive for BTC but we have a lot of resistance ahead.
The 50 Weekly Moving average
On April 2 we bounced strongly off the 50WMA, then unable to go above the 20WMA we fell hard through the 50WMA without a bounce. Followed by two retest on the 28th of May 23rd of July. Since then the price has not been able to go higher than the 20WMA until in the last two days.
The 200 Weekly Moving average
This moving average is very significant in other markets and in the case of BTC we have bounced two times out of this moving average. This is the first time in this bear market that BTC has done so.
If you get the GTL indicator and still in the weekly chart, you will notice the lower band channel (in light grey here) was so perfectly the support around the 6k area for at least 5 times, until the 20WMA was too strong and a lower moving average needed to be tested.
This lower band (in light grey here) will be one of the major resistances ahead. Current trajectory of BTC indicates $4500 will be the next major resistance. Currently we have a potential iH&S on the daily chart which, if confirmed, target will be around that area of $4500-$4700 which is also where the 200 daily MA will be.
It is really positive to have not witnessed a major sell off yet, if that wasn't the case, it would mean BTC is extremely weak to even attempt to go higher where these major resistances are. In my opinion, BTC will officially be in a bull market once we have gone above the weekly 50MA.
I would be cautious though as we are not clearly ahead from the yearly downtrend line (dotted purple) and it is usual to see alts getting ahead before BTC has a major sell off.
Example signals from Crypto-Sticks MomentumOur last update for today, in the Crypto-Sticks series. More to come soon!
Here's an example of how to use the Crypto-Sticks Momentum for trading signals. I also plotted this range's signals the indicator would've generated.
Momentum can be a tricky indicator sometimes. Since it doesnt go into predictable overbought or oversold zones, it rather just oscillates around zero - making it harder to create a signals strategy. On the default view I tend to look for 2 candle "flat tops" and "flat bottoms" with one or both containing a decent wick.
Heiken Ashi candles adds some more clear entry exit points which can be executed at the second candle going in either direction (applicable only to this chart on 4H - other coins/charts will require their own strategy). For instance, enter on 2nd green, exit on 2nd red. The heiken candles seem to give longer term trades which I like... hate overtrading!
Volume weighting the HA candles adds a different dimension to the indicator which I have to explore more fully.
If using either HA or VW+HA, the strategy about "flat candles" doesnt apply anymore. Please leave me any ideas or feedback you have!
The signal was to go long at 1130 with a target of 1250 on the upside at the first resistance area. Stoploss at 1075.
Here's how it looks as Heiken Ashi:
And Volume Weighted Heiken Ashi:
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GJ (GBP/JPY) Technicals +62 pips in 30 mins EC release
GJ (GBP/JPY) Technical momo setup +62 pips in 30 mins in my momo setup made +62 pips in 30 mins intra-day trading after release of economic calendar even it's release GBP is negative/bearish and JPY is positive and bullish.
Oversold os levels in vwap and momo stochastic crossover and reversal of momo squeeze, bounce back below vwap levels. High volume and volatility release scalp can made over +90 pips entering at fractals and EMA scalp signal.
Bitcoin's Bottom & Trend AnalysisThis overview is purely a market trend analysis. This not an analysis saying we are only going up from here. Also, this analysis is done on Bitstamp, checking the other markets as I wrote this, the points I show are visible on the other major exchanges.
We are seeing a few very important bullish signs for the first time throughout this correction. However, this does not mean the market is at it's bottom. The weekly close around 16 hours ago left a clear bearish engulfing candle that wiped away 3 weeks of bullish progress.
What is visible to me is a few high time frame divergences that show the beginning of the shift from bearish momentum to bullish. Keep in mind these are what becomes visible when the shift from sell pressure in a trend shifts to bull pressure and the demand out paces the supply. When the sell pressure breaks is when we begin to see a clear and visible bull market.
Starting out, lets look at volume. We have a total of 4 support touches, each one is slightly higher on the close but generally within the bottoms range.
The first one in pink, On Balance Volume (O.B.V.) levels bottomed at approximately the same place we see with current levels. The second pink marker shows what has turned out to be the low on the O.B.V.. I left the Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) on to show that even though we touched support again, the C.M.F. remains in the bullish pressure zone ever so slightly. This spike in buy pressure and ability to remain in the positive flow tells me the correction is taking a new direction shortly.
Moving forward to the first yellow arrow on the left, price action found a lower bottom with a slightly higher O.B.V. level. Since then we have generally not dipped below the price range of $5,800 to $6,300ish on support touches and the O.B.V. continues to climb.
The Stochastic shows me a couple interesting things. I could call this divergence a number of ways, I would've like to see %K (Blue line) touch the pink arrow to call this a nice exaggerated divergence favoring the bulls. Regardless, it is a tad bit confluent at that very point which leads me to defer to the bigger bullish signal starting on our first yellow arrow.
The Relative Strength Index (R.S.I.) shows a very similar story as the STOCH.
Lastly, the Momentum (M.O.M.) indicator. I have paired the M.O.M. indicator with a moving average (Pink) set at 14 periods.
The last support touch marked by the yellow arrow shows the M.O.M. touching the Moving Average and bouncing off it perfectly to up above the median line of zero. We are currently below the median line, but above the Moving Average indicating the momentum is slowly shifting to a more bullish stance.
Conclusion
Keep in mind this is an analysis of the current trend and its strength. This is not specifying where the bottom is, I will be doing a part 2 for this analysis at a later time.
Believe it or not the bearish momentum is getting weaker. Taking a look at the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) we are seeing bunching of the EMA's indicating a bottom forming. We also see the Volume Profile (VPVR) showing this area as our value area. This means little as for a markets bottom, but it is a plus when measuring volume at price levels instead of time analysis.
The bottom is still forming, but good news is we can now see the formation and take this into account as I make my day trades. We have a long way to go before we see a strong bull push similar to last years. The Ichimoku will be very useful for measuring where our full blown bull will break out at. I am watching for a Kumo cloud break on the weekly to know when all the rest of the world will be FOMOing into Bitcoin and push those impulses to insane levels again.
As we form a bottom, all the dips and rallies are just noise. As long as market structure does not change, then I expect a lot of sideways action for a couple months to properly form this bottom that will ultimately lead to an obnoxiously profitable bull rally.
Thank you for reading and please be sure to click like on this analysis. Thank You!
This is not financial advice, this is simply my personal analysis of the current conditions.
GBPUSD LongGBPUSD has become oversold after yesterday's breakout. This can be verified using Connor's 2-Period RSI on the daily chart. Chris Moody's Slingshot System shows an aggressive entry opportunity. I recommend going long for the next 3 or 4 bars (8-16 hours) as GPBUSD pulls back from the overreaction.
Recommended SL: 1.406
Recommended TP: 1.416
Ethereum Bottom Starting To FormHey friends,
Here is another example for these unique indicators: UncleBo - ChillyWilly@2 - FibEvaluation
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When Larry Williams UO told us that Bitcoin is going to crashUltimate Oscillator:
This is a range-bound indicator, which means the value fluctuates between 0 and 100. Similar to the RSI, levels below 30 are deemed to be oversold, and levels above 70 are deemed to be overbought. Transaction signals are derived by finding situations where the price is going in opposite directions than the indicator. Once this divergence has been identified the trader will wait to confirm the transaction by using other technical indicators.
Here are trading rules: www.marketinout.com
Following this, UO indicated us to go short (red arrow). Since then there has been not "close" signal for this trade.
Very interesting - I came across this indicator studying new entry/exit strategies. I am about to backtest this indicator on my trades for the next months whether UO is worth considering.
Calming the StormUp? FOMO? Higher? MOON?!?
Down? Bear? Crash? DJIA?
There is a ton of nonsense out there guys. A ton of people trying to tell you how to trade. Whatever side you're on, I think you should hang out. Things are starting to look like there is some positivism back in BTC. If you're long here, stay long -- I don't see anything to turn you around.
If you're short (God bless you) I don't think I'd be holding a short position here...but you have some data on your side.
Being neutral is OK. Waiting for the confirmation before you jump is perfectly acceptable - there are others with you.
Lets look at it together and see how we "feel" about BTC!
Example of the Relative Strength Index Indicator on BCHUSDThe relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator. It is primary used to attempt to identify overbought and oversold conditions. It is considered overbought when the RSI indictor is above 70 and it is a sign to make a short, and oversold when is below 30 and it is a sign to make a long.
Rare strong bear market rally will fade due to profit takingThe "S&P 500" rallied so strong with a 1% daily gain four consecutive trading sessions in a row for only 15 times since the "S&P 500" exists according to Bloomberg. The Connors RSI also shows a very high value, last seen last October. And the current trading day (Wednesday) closed at the highs of the session, which will create pivot points which be difficult to exceed one more time.
Therefore a sharp decline for at least one day is possible. Also because I think the fast rally was mostly a short squeeze / short covering rally and less driven by real natural demand from buyers - yet. Maybe next week after some profit taking I see a real strong rally to emerge.
Short entry: 1925-1930
Stop loss: 1955
1. Target: 1900
2. Target: 1875
3. Target: 1825
P:S: Here is how rare such a large index move upwards was in recent months, as measured by the Connors RSI. Only three times since Summer 2013:
Good method for trading BTCUSD on neutral and long positionsHi to everyone!
I would like to share to you an excellent method for trading BTCUSD on neutral and long positions.
I use a MA30 (moving average of 30 periods) + Elder's Bull and Bear Power indicators on H4 or D.
Buy process: When MA30 changes trend from downtrend to uptrend + candlestick is over the MA30 + both indicators are above 0 level = BUY
Sell process / Short operation: When MA30 changes trend from uptrend to downtrend + candlestick is below the MA30 + both indicators are below 0 level = SELL/SHORT
In the screenshot you have an example of buy but if you "make it yours" you will have all the backtesting with buy/sell. Enjoy it!
Already tested on BTCUSD on BTC-e and H4 and D from 2012 to today with excellent results and with LTCUSD with not good results.
Update 1: kakola has designed an indicator combining Elder's indicators with a crossover pastebin.com
Update 2: For BTC in daily works but you have to use also TA to close positions better. For LTC doesn't work properly... I will backtest more altcoins.
Update 3: NMC works very profitable also in H4.