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Momentum Oscillators

Cardano (ADA:BTC) AB=CD long trade.Bull Flag setup Trade. Hidden bullish divergence of the pRSI (main oscillator) of my PRISM Oscillators Set have emerged; with momentum entering the positive -- pulled up by the positive and increasing AJ-Ribbon with Snap lingering in the positive. AB=CD confluent with 161.8% Fib extension level. Also, BUY signal triggered on CYBER ENSEMBLE on the 1hrly chart! Caution: 21 EMA crosses below the 50 SMA on the 15 mins. However not a significant issue unless confirmation of this on the higher timeframes (i.e. 30 mins and 1 hrly). Setting stop-loss accordingly below the 61.8% Fib with volatility factored in. Note: The thick purple lines are the VPVR support/resistance levels. I know the chart is cluttered. I only have one screen and this is how I like to analyse my chart, where all the relevant details are in view together; so that I won't over-focusing on any particular one of them.
Long
by cybernetwork
1
BTC:USD Long-term bullish trend continuation?BTC pierced above the 8017 USD VPVR resistance with strength and is now supported above the purple 8743 USD VPVR level. Current daily candle need to successfully close above for confirmation. Price is now well above the 200 SMA which will continue to pull the 50 SMA towards a golden cross. Bearish if the price drops back down below 8k USD. PRISM Oscillators Set indicates the start of the next bullish phase for the month (or two) ahead. Won't be buying now as present price is not a position of strength. Was cost-averaging in to HODL (long-term investment stash) when price was below the red area marked, also shown in my previous published ideas, etc.:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cybernetwork
BTC pierced above the 7238 USD VPVR level! Will it close above?Bullish Scenario playing out in my Apr 06 post in my previous on-going analysis updates . Note: as explained in a prior published idea, the current ascending channel is drawn as such base on my personal trading preference to ignore the initial equilibration “ringing” after a massive sudden move. I believe it tends to be wise to wait awhile before a clear new market structure form after the previous market structure has been broken. Previous stances ( posted here ): QUOTE: (Apr 05) Right now I am actually neutral in the short term, so long as the red 21 EMA holds. I will only be bearish if the green 50 SMA fails to hold. The PRISM oscillators indicates a bearish bias atm, however the Snap Oscillator and the AJ-ribbon are only gently sloped downwards, which could also mean a relatively sideways movement, with a very slight drop (perhaps to retest the 50 SMA) before rebounding. Right now, I am actually slightly and cautiously bullish into the longer-term base on the current market trend. But similarly, for me to become truly bullish, the price will need to break up above the yellow ascending channel, and to clear the 7238 USD VPVR resistance as well and retest it as support. (Apr 06) The fact that the Sell signal have been triggered on the Cyber Ensemble suggests that it will be difficult for the price to successfully break up higher this time round as well. And if that is the case, the price will likely come back down; and may very likely break below the red 21 EMA, as well as the green 50 SMA with the failed attempt by the bulls -- with the immediate bearish price target of 6100 USD at the bottom of the ascending channel drawn, and hopefully closing and supported above the orange 200 SMA. Setting stop-loss at the 6612 USD VPVR level just below the green 50 SMA to lock in profits accumulated so far just in case. (Apr 06) If the price falls and closes below even the orange 200 SMA, then BTC will likely follow through with a break down below the yellow ascending channel, marking the start of a more significant and perhaps violent downtrend. However, as per the above latest chart posted, the AJ-Ribbon looks to be in a strong upward swing, which will likely pull momentum back up into the positive. This is in conjunction with the main P-Oscillator looking to cross the 21 VWMA really soon as well! I'm cautious slightly biased to the bullish case atm now, but will wait and observe which condition is fulfilled before making my next move. (Apr 06) BTC had now successfully closed above the yellow ascending channel. Switching to 4hrly chart where the Cyber Ensemble and PRISM Signals indicators have now have better confluence with the price action, indicating a reduction in volatility. The bullish/bearish scenarios as described above are as shown. Moving up to the higher 6hrly timeframe: The AEONDRIFT bands (stdev bands -- similar to the well known Bollinger Bands) have drastically narrowed, indicating reduced volatility; and a possible significant move incoming. 6hrly chart (zoomed out):
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
9
All in if BTC finds support above 200 SMA on 3 hrly @ ~6580 USDIf BTC can pierce above the orange 200 SMA on the 3 hrly @ 6580 USD, then I am all in with the rest of the USDT from BTC that I had previously cost-average sold off at ca. 9636 USD when the price dipped below the orange 200 SMA. Stop loss earlier triggered and sold off almost 30% of my small BTC trading account holdings. :( Bought back in immediately when BTC pierced above 6143 again. "PRISM Signals" triggered a buy on the 3 hrly (indicating bullish momentum/acceleration trends). CYBER ENSEMBLE also registered a buy on the 3hrly earlier, strengthening the case for a bullish short-term bias. A more zoomed in and "cleaner" view: "Cleaner" zoomed out view, showing only the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly: Continued from:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
2
BTC coming down to re-visit *local 61.8% Fib level.Also pierced below the ascending channel while going sideways since 24th Mar '20. If the bearish scenario doesn't play through more strongly and violently soon, that's a window for the bulls to take over after the Sunday candle closes. (a) If that holds, establishing the next high low, expects a bounce to set a new higher high. (b) If that fails, expect it to drop further down to 38.2%. Speculatively, I'm biased towards the bullish scenario since the dip is occurring during a weekend, if and only if scenario (a) holds till Monday. Momentum Analysis: See also previous analysis. Note the Fibs-levels there was drawn as the Fib-retrace from the top to the bottom of the SPX-correlated dump on 12th Mar '20.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
2
BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib of the recent massive dump.BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib retrace level of the recent massive dump -- as drawn from top to bottom of the dip since it produces higher degree of confluence wrt to the VPVR levels. If the current 3hrly candle, retesting the 61.8% Fib, closes above, I will be going all in (Long) with the rest of my BTC trading account; with stop-loss set and constantly updated at below the 21 EMA. I'm now short-term bullish. However for me to become mid-to-long-term bullish, the BTC needs to pierce above the 50% Fib @ 7161 USD and hold. CYBER ENSEMBLE had earlier signaled a sell on the 1hrly marking the start of the retest. Will also adjust stop-loss to protect any gains made if the sell signal is triggered on the 3hrly, which is the timeframe that the CYBER ENSEMBLE Buy/Sell indicator is optimized at (see past/historical confluence). ================================ Far-longer-term outlook: ================================ With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value). --- Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority. Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key. Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift). However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future. Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network. Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows. Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago. Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift. A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies. The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) typically to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich. ================================ Entry/Exit/Target Strategy, and Risk-to-Reward Previous analysis, waiting for this very entry condition to be met: PRISM Oscillators RSI and STOCHs Relative Candle Volatility/Directionality Indexes {RCVI/RCDI}
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cybernetwork
2
Updated traditional market (SPX) normalised Bitcoin (XBT) ChartNow that a new somewhat trending market structure is starting to form after the recent "blackswan" triggered dump correlated to the tradition markets, here's a re-look at the SPX normalised Bitcoin chart to look out for bullish decoupling in a time where the traditional market remains bearish. In summary, for BTC to switch into a bullish "decoupling" phase wrt to the traditional market, the ratio needs to at least break up above the Ichicloud and finds support; at least that is where I will set my buy in point (at around 2.36, and then stop-loss at below 2.09 after). See initial look and discussions on this experimental analysis attempt:
BITMEX:XBT
by cybernetwork