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Momentumstrategy

Preference for EMA`s over standard MA`s.Hi. Another comment on signal compatibility. In EMA crossing a true death cross should be considered the crossing of EMA100/EMA200. This is usually always dangerous. Since the model situation I want to discuss is now occurring on the daily DXY, let us take it. 1. So there is a fresh death cross printed on January 6. 2. There is no crossing of EMA100/EMA200 now. 3. The candles came out from under diagonal resistance (what about the fact that the rate hike was already built into the conditions by the market?! lol). But how do I know if the momentum is depleted? The index has no volume... With volatility outlook. 4. SQZMOM_LB shows a daily divergence and a squeeze entry before jumping up. Further rise in DXY will be supported by expansion momentum. 5. So I have some confusion about the death cross indication and its possible consequences... If there is no support in the form of right away falling volatility for example... That is why I am looking at other crosses. 6. It turns out that if I short DXY anyway more important indication would be EMA20 and EMA 50 (red and orange). Since the move should be taken as early as possible and not wait for "iron" confirmations. But it turns out that MA cross is too late for a short, and not convincing enough for a continuation of the short at the moment when the cross finally happened... 7. In this case I think we're in for a ~108 level attack, which will prevent a cross at EMA100/200.
TVC:DXY
by averkie_skila
6
TSLA: Get Ready.• TSLA is very bullish, and there’s no technical signs of exhaustion on it yet; • TSLA almost hit our target last Friday at $200, which is a technical resistance level; • The key support is at $182.50. This is the key point TSLA must not lose in order to maintain its bullish momentum; • Right now, TSLA is in a “no man’s land” between the $200 and the $182.50, and only a clear breakout would resume the trend, or trigger a correction; • Get ready and watch these key points closely from here. I’ll keep you updated on this every day, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
BTC Momentum Gone? USD + VIX say so Hi The question these days is how much momentum do we have left in the current BTC bull run, I would love to see a leg down so we gather enough momentum to open a weekly candle above 25k. As things stand right now, there is not much to the downside for both USD and VIX and this indicates that there is not much momentum for liquidity for risk-class assets such as BTC left. On the flip side both USD and VIX have a lot of room to the upside which is going to pull money out of risk-class assets and if that happens the TA on the BTC graphs wont do much good as the market is going to react accordingly. I will be closely monitoring this myself. Comment and Share!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by theChartGuru
PANW - MyMI Option PlaysWe purchased CALLS for PANW going into yesterday's morning session around the $144 Price Levels as we noticed that PANW broke out of it's Longer-Term Downward Channel. After further analysis, we acknowledge the potential for $165-$168 while showing the potential momentum of breaking through the Expected Resistance around the $152-$153. We expect to hold this as long as the stock continues to hold the current Blue Trend and for risk management, we would close out our trade and take those profits to purchase our long-term hold in the stock as it is still 28% off of it's $213.63 ATH and some headroom to move forward to the upside. Will keep you guys updated and thanks for following us at MyMI!
NASDAQ:PANWLong
by MyMIWallet
GE: Strength Ahead of Earnings ReportThis old company struggled to reinvent after the banking debacle destroyed its consumer financing division. Older companies CAN reinvent and start a new life. I'm showing the Weekly Chart first so you can see the support zone below and the strong resistance above, where the stock may head sideways for a time. Around $67 is the high of a completed short-term bottom that provides strong support for the current price action. The stock entered the strong resistance level of the Trading Range highs of 2021 - 2022 with what I call a "pre-earnings" run. On the daily chart: GE had a strong momentum run ahead of its earnings report. This was a pre-earnings run, which tend to develop 2-4 weeks ahead of the earnings release. The company is reporting Tuesday this week. The strong reversal candle on Friday after 2 down days is also an indication that the report will be good.
NYSE:GELong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
The Momentum of MomentumUtilizing oscillators to confirm trend continuations and reversals is a momentum traders’ bread and butter. You most likely have the RSI or MACD saved to your favorites, but have you ever considered analyzing the momentum of an oscillator itself? You would be surprised at what insights the momentum of an oscillator can show you. In this article, we will look at how the momentum of an oscillator can help parse out false signals and give you an edge in your decision-making. Below is the BTC/USDT 15-minute chart, the True Momentum Oscillator (TMO), and a 50-day EMA. We have highlighted what appears to be a short-term double top, with a weakening oscillator momentum that failed to reach or exceed the previous level. The price consistently bounced around the 50-period EMA and had cleanly broken through with a retrace imminent. Whether you aim to trade the break of the EMA or the retrace and rejection, this appears to be set up for a potential short trade. Now we take the momentum of the TMO and its signal line and plot those lines (purple and white). Another layer to this story suddenly unfolds. We can now see from the new momentum lines that this move to the downside weakened almost as soon as it began. There is now a clear divergence between the oscillator and its momentum lines. What seemed to be a solid short setup now has upside potential. We must now question our next move. A few bars later, the price broke above the 50-EMA and quickly touched it one last time and is followed by a robust move to the upside. In the current market, it is easy to lean short. Eager traders might have taken the short only to be burned by the strong move against the desired trade. Adding the layer of the momentum of our oscillator helped us read between the noise. We had a better idea of where the next chapter could take us, or at the very least, we could avoid a risky trade. This is just one example of how the momentum of oscillators can be another valuable tool in our technical analysis tool belt. This momentum offers a unique visual aid for making quick decisions when trading.
Education
by LeafAlgo
Nifty last reading session of the yearFew days back we discussed important levels of nifty and what the moves nifty may give. Levels we discussed acted beautifully, also only 20 points was required to achived target.Keeping in mind since tomorrow will be the last trading session of the year traders should be extra careful. Tomorrow if 18155 level holds we could see targets of 18350 and if 18155 level is unable to hold nifty could reach around 18000-17900. Overall my view for Tomorrow will be bearish sentiment all because new years is round the corner then people tend to use more money around this time. Technicals is all bullish bdw.
NSE:NIFTY
by GroundDateBottle
BTC Bottom TheoryTheory that im currently working with would dictate that we take out these previous lows before flipping momentum. Meaning there is significant amount of pain to come. I think if the casual traders in general had a better idea of what they were doing, than the market would find equilibrium easier. As it stands, there are too many easy targets out there with the ICT and "smart money concept" traders misunderstanding price action that the market just gobbles them up. Be careful out there folks, and good luck traders. I would say not to get truely macro long until this 7k level is swatted at the very least by a wick. Ideally these lows are taken out.
Short
by largepetrol
6
EURGBP short set up© RBC Euro area economics: Previewing next week’s key euro area inflation release The November euro area ‘flash’ HICP estimate is published on Wednesday, with country-level data for Germany and Spain released on Tuesday, and data for France and Italy in advance on Wednesday morning. Next week’s euro area HICP release is likely to be particularly significant, given market expectations that this month’s release could see the first drop in the y/y rate of HICP inflation since June 2021 (notwithstanding the marginal decline, only visible at 3 decimal places, seen in April). Market pricing currently points to a print of a little over 10.4% y/y, which would represent a 0.2% decline from the 10.6% y/y recorded in October. Even if only small, a decline in the y/y rate of inflation would feed into the narrative that inflation in the euro area, as in the US (where CPI inflation is now down 1.4% from its June peak), has peaked and is now on a downward trajectory. Indeed a decline in the y/y rate could be viewed by the market as a validation of the current trajectory implied by market pricing, which sees headline inflation declining steadily throughout next year to end 2023 at just 2.8%. Conversely, another significant increase in inflation is likely to be interpreted as a sign that inflation is proving more persistent in the euro area than in the US. --- Technical Analysis EURGBP is notoriously choppy so taking the TP 1 and getting the rest of the position to break even is key. Lower inflation expectations will lead to a softening of the ECB's rate hike cycle and the euro can fall. That said the US dollar is also currently in a downtrend, so the EURUSD will likely keep the single currency supported against a lot of other currency crosses. For all of the talk of how badly the UK is doing since Brexit and due to the Pandemic, I see the war in Ukraine adding more pressure to Europe than the UK and economically the UK can do better. The OECD has the UK GDP growth since the 2019 dip above Germany and France, so that would help the technicals keep moving lower.
Short
by Macrobriefing
USDJPY bearsUSD/JPY: curve inversion taking over? While the FOMC Minutes showed that a substantial majority of FOMC members thought it would likely soon be appropriate to reduce the pace of rate hikes, they also pointed to various members believing the terminal rate was somewhat higher than previously expected. This rhetoric echoed that of Chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting press conference as well as other FOMC members since the meeting. The Fed staff also saw the possibility of recession over the next year as almost as likely as a baseline forecast. USD/JPY declined on this rhetoric and we note that the US 2-10sY spread has dipped further and to -80bp as the risk of US recession is seen as growing. While the US-Japan short-term rates differential remains the strongest driver of USD/JPY according to our FAST FX model of the exchange rate, the US-Japan box yield spread is beginning to have a larger impact as the UST curve further inverts. With the market pricing in a Fed Funds terminal rate of around 5%, there is significant risk of this pricing being forced to move higher and take the USD/JPY along with it, however, especially if inflation remains sticky to the upside. With the US on holiday for Thanksgiving, USD/JPY may quieten down a little. Investors will be wary of the Tokyo CPI data on Friday and any upside surprise in the data given its strong correlation with the nationwide inflation data. Further modest acceleration in Tokyo inflation is expected, which will place equally modest pressure on the BoJ to relinquish its YCC. ©Crédit Agricole Securities (USA) As traders, we need to be aware of the lows from 15th November. A break through there and we have a much larger drop.
Short
by Macrobriefing
EURUSD bullsGerman PMI figures outperformed expectations, reaching 46.7, strengthening MoM by a value of 1.6 indexed. Whilst this is still firmly in contractionary territory for the German economy and the number of new orders remains heavily depressed, It was still a kernel of good news for Germany and the wider Eurozone. By the same token, Eurozone manufacturing PMI figures also exceeded expectations and suggested that the worst of the energy supply shock had subsided, the worst energy costs being seen in August and showing a slight decline as European nations reacted. This optimism was undoubtedly partly responsible for EUR/USD’s strong rally yesterday, EUR gaining 1% against the greenback in a days trading. ©Caxton EURUSD is trending higher on the H1, so find a fundamental narrative that fits the price action :)
Long
by Macrobriefing