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Momentumstrategy

AVTNPL Showing Good MomentumNSE:AVTNPL ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Products The main products of the Co. are - Marigold Extracts for Eye Care, Food Coloring & Poultry Pigmentation; Spice oleoresin and Oils for Food Coloring and Flavoring; Value added Teas - Decaffeinated Teas and Instant Teas; Animal Nutrition Products; and Rosemary extract. ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Subsidiaries The Co. has 2 wholly owned subsidiaries, namely AVT Natural Europe Ltd. & AVT Natural S.A. De C.v., Mexico. AVT Natural Europe Ltd. is the marketing arm of the Company for decaffeinated tea and instant tea. AVT Natural SA DE C.V, Mexico has been established with an aim to capture the market for the Animal Nutritional products in the South American market and other markets. ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
NSE:AVTNPLLong
by iism-ExpertTrading
$IBM Support Levels HoldingNYSE:IBM did not have a great earnings report for the 1st Quarter 2024, but 2nd quarter improved. The stock has one of the better charts in the Dow 30 components. It has held up better than most of the Dow components, except for those stocks that are in buyback mode. It has been tapering off its buybacks for 2 quarters. So the gains holding above the support lows are not from buybacks. There are accumulation patterns and pro trader activity in the mix. One to watch for swing trading potential.
NYSE:IBM
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
GOVT ETF: Bullish Reversal on the Horizon?The GOVT ETF, representing U.S. Treasury Bonds, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal, according to our proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System. Key Indicators: Z-Score: The Z-Score has surged to 1.60, signaling an overextension to the downside in the past months. This indicates that the recent downward momentum might be exhausted, leading to a possible trend reversal. Z-Score of RSI: The Z-Score of RSI at 1.72 shows a significant bullish momentum shift. This suggests that the asset might be gaining strength, with buyers stepping in to push prices higher. The crossing above 0 confirms that bullish sentiment is currently prevailing. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD): The CVD indicator reflects a strong buying pressure, as demonstrated by the marked shift from deep negative territory (-451,481,504) towards a less pronounced negative reading. This shift suggests that the selling pressure has weakened, and buyers are beginning to dominate the market. Price Action: The price has broken above the green momentum cloud, signaling a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Given the alignment of other indicators, this could be the beginning of a bullish phase for GOVT. Projection: Over the next quarter, GOVT is likely to experience a bullish correction, driven by strong buying momentum. The ETF could target resistance levels in the $25.00-$26.00 range if the current momentum continues. The Z-Score and RSI suggest that the upside could be substantial as the ETF looks to recover from recent losses. However, caution is warranted if the Z-Score or RSI starts to diverge negatively, as it could indicate the potential for a correction or consolidation before resuming the uptrend. Monitoring these indicators will be crucial to confirm the strength of the reversal. Based on the proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System, GOVT appears poised for a bullish quarter. Investors looking to capitalize on U.S. Treasury Bonds might find this an opportune time to consider GOVT as a potential buy.
CBOE:GOVTLong
by LordGiorgioCapital
ORCHPHARMA Giving a Strong BreakOutOrchid Pharma Ltd. engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of diverse bulk actives, formulations, and nutraceuticals. Its products include cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, neuropsychiatry, nutritional supplements, cephalosporins-orals, cephalosporins-injectables, veterinary products, and non-antibiotics. The company was founded by Kailasam Raghavendra Rao on July 1, 1992, and is headquartered in Chennai, India. Can Keep Stop_Loss - 1,400 Target_1 - 1,625 Target_2 - Trail With 20-EMA
NSE:ORCHPHARMALong
by Akshaytrader007
Buyback Watch for Swing TradingEarnings are over so buybacks are back in the mix. The market is likely to continue to be volatile and choppy until all the ETF investors who want to sell have done so. Then, the uptrend is likely to resume because there are not enough barometers warning of a recession AND we just had one 3 years ago. Buybacks tend to drive price up, so they are a good swing and momentum trading strategy. Notice how neatly the support from previous highs halted the run down. Reversal points at strong support levels are one area to watch for buyback patterns.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
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MAZDA LTD Breaks Out Strongly After 200 DaysMazda Ltd., headquartered in Ahmedabad, India since 1990, operates in process and power industries through two key segments: Engineering Products and Food Products. The Engineering Products segment offers a range of goods including vacuum systems, evaporators, and pollution control equipment. The Food Products segment specializes in producing food color, fruit jams, and fruit mix powders. Discover how Mazda Ltd. is driving innovation and quality in both engineering and food product markets. Stop-Loss: 1490 Target: 2000 Consider exiting half your position after a 10-12% gain and hold the rest to capture the trend. Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:MAZDALong
by Akshaytrader007
JK PAPER - My observation & overview! - 30% upside!!!Overview & Observation: 1. Moving with Weekly Demand. 2. Good volume support. 3. Strong trendline support 4. Healthy breakout candle. Trade Plan: 1. It is already close to targets for the structure it gave BO. 2. Either wait for a retracement for buying or ride the trend with an aggressive entry at CMP with 10% as a safe SL. - Stay tuned for further insights, updates and trade safely! - If you liked the analysis, don't forget to leave a comment and boost the post. Happy trading! Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Please, do your due diligence before investing. Thanks & Regards, Anubrata Ray
NSE:JKPAPERLong
by SuperNova396
Buyback Patterns for Swing TradingNASDAQ:AMGN shows a buyback run followed by a sell day that was instigated by market makers as buyers quickly disappeared. Remember that corporate buybacks are done by bank floor traders to add stock to their inventory so they won't take profits at the peak of the run; those are other market participants, such as market makers. NYSE:KO is another example of a buyback run and how price moves back down after the professionals conclude their buybacks. The buybacks were announced in May this year so this stock has just started its share repurchase program.
NASDAQ:AMGN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
HERITAGE FOODS - multi-year breakout - Buy on Dips!Monthly Time Frame: Overview & Observation: 1. Beautiful Double bottom formation and broke 7 years of resistance level in 1 shot shows strength in buying. 2. Good volume support 3. Earnings are strong. Trade Plan: 1. It has already gone to targets for the structure it gave BO. 2. Wait for a retracement for buying. - Stay tuned for further insights, updates and trade safely! - If you liked the analysis, don't forget to leave a comment and boost the post. Happy trading! Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Please, do your due diligence before investing. Thanks & Regards, Anubrata Ray
NSE:HERITGFOOD
by SuperNova396
Momentum Trading In Agricultural CommoditiesMomentum trading, a strategy as old as the markets themselves, has found fertile ground in the sprawling fields of agricultural commodities. As the seasons change, so do the prices of wheat, corn, soybeans, and other staples, tracing patterns as predictable as the migration of birds or the spring blossom. This paper delves into these seasonal trends, uncovering how they can serve as reliable signals for astute investors looking to harness the power of momentum trading. SEASONAL TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Mint Finance has previously highlighted some of these seasonal trends in Corn and Soybean in detail previously In short, seasonal cycles in crop performance are linked to crop harvest cycles. Pre-harvest, inventory drawdowns tend to drive price higher while post-harvest, a glut of inventory tends to drive prices lower. Corn Corn prices start declining in June following the harvest in China (second largest corn producer) and Brazil (third largest corn producer). Prices reach their lowest in October, coinciding with the harvest in the US. Over the past five years, corn prices have increased in the first half of the year before declining sharply in late June. In 2024, indexed price performance shows prices sharply lagging the seasonal trend as we approach the date on which prices generally declined the last five years. Wheat Wheat seasonality is less pronounced than other agri-commodities due to its relatively global distribution. Still, wheat prices generally rise during the first part of the year before declining in late June as all the major producers - China, Indian, EU, Russia, and US harvest crops during this period. This year, wheat prices started the year off on a bearish note. After bottoming in early-March, prices started to rise sharply peaking in late-May. Mint Finance covered some of the factors behind this rally in a previous paper (Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices Surging). Prices have started to normalize in June, a few weeks before the seasonal price decline generally begins. Soybean Soybean prices generally rise during the first part of the year. In late-June, as the Brazil harvest reaches its peak, prices decline sharply. Prices remain subdued until September when the US crop is harvested. This year, prices have sharply lagged their seasonal performance. Despite the rally in early-May driven by flooding in Brazil, prices remain lower than their level at the start of 2024. Moreover, the rally following the flood-driven rally has retraced a few weeks before the seasonal price decline generally takes place. MOMENTUM TRADING IN AGRICULUTAL COMMODITIES Investors can execute momentum trading strategies by leveraging these seasonal trends. In this context, momentum trading strategy refers to a relatively simple trading strategy where investors either buy or sell a futures contract at the start of the month based on the seasonal price performance during that month. For instance, if seasonal trends show that June generally results in a price decline, the strategy would consist of going short on the commodity at the start of June and closing the position at the end of the month. Although, at face value, this strategy may seem overly simplistic, its return and accuracy are surprisingly high. The simulations are based on a position in the front-month futures, consisting of one contract of the agricultural commodity, opened at the beginning of the month and closed at the end. Corn For Corn, running the momentum trading strategy would have yielded average annual returns of USD 8,500 per year over the past five years (2019-2023). Crucially, performance of this strategy in 2024 is sharply lower as it would yield total PnL of just USD 63 this year. Wheat Similarly, for wheat, this strategy returned an average PnL of 4,650 per year during 2019-2023. So far in 2024, this strategy would have yielded USD 6,600 in wheat futures in 2024. Soybean In Soybean futures, momentum trading would have been the most successful over the past five years. This strategy would have yielded an average of USD 13,600 per year between 2019 and 2023. However, in 2024, this strategy would not have been successful as it would have resulted in a loss of USD 8,700 so far. SUMMARY AND 2024 PERFORMANCE It is clear that although this strategy is successful on a long timeframe, it is not necessarily profitable each month. For instance, the Soybean momentum trading strategy would have resulted in a loss in 2024 while Corn momentum trading strategy would have resulted in flat returns. The reason behind this divergence from seasonal trend is clear when comparing the seasonal price performance charts at the start of the paper. Fundamental factors can result in broad-based trends throughout the year which can skew returns. For instance, as Soybean prices have been declining for most of 2024, a long position would have resulted in a loss regardless of seasonal trends. As such, it is crucial to supplement this strategy using fundamental inputs on what the long-term price trend for the crop is. For a crop which is in a down-cycle, a long position would not make sense and vice versa. In the near-term, all three crop’s prices tend to decline during July based on seasonal trends. However, the outlook for corn is most bearish. The latest WASDE report , suggested that USDA expects global corn production in marketing year 2024-2025 to reach 1,220.5 million metric tons compared to a forecast of 1,219.93 million MT last month. The increase in production comes from forecast for higher output from Ukraine and Zambia more than offsetting the decline in Russia. Moreover, USDA forecasts a season average price of USD 4.4 per bushel which is lower than the current futures price of USD 4.57. Asset managers are also shifting their view on corn prices bearish once again as COT report showed asset managers increasing net short positioning last week. Both fundamental and seasonal factors support a price decline in corn over the next month. However, seasonal trends are not exact. Particularly in 2024, seasonal trends have underperformed their usual returns from the last five years. Investors can opt to use options instead of futures to express the same view of weakening prices. Options provide fixed downside risk and require only an upfront premium, avoiding the need to manage margins as futures prices fluctuate. A long put position in CME corn options expiring on August 23 (ZCU24) can be used to gain downside exposure. CME Corn puts are relatively cheaper compared to calls. Moreover, options IV (measured by the CVOL index) is lower compared to the peaks seen during the same time last year. An options position would benefit from both falling prices and rising IV. Source: CVOL A long put options position on corn futures presents fixed downside of USD 464 (USc 9.29 x 5000/100) and unlimited upside. A strike price of USc 430/bushel represents delta of -0.29. This position would break-even at USc 420/bushel. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Crude Oil : Monthly candle flips bullish Hello Traders. The Daily Range today on Crude Oil was 2.89$. This is in the top 10% of the 113 Daily candles that we've observed so far this year for Crude. Quite the move to the upside to begin the week! We mirrored the move bearish from the previous week, which happened to be on Monday as well. The monthly candle managed to flip back bullish as we kickoff the second week of June. After tapping into 72.58 Weekly support level last week, price jumped up. We hadn't seen this price since Jan/Feb of this year and so mpt surprised to see Bulls step in an push price up. Interesting to note that the Daily candle today failed to close with a top wick. This signals some profit taking and exhaustion based off my analysis. Additionally, ever since the new daily candle opened, price has been pulling back down. Tuesday is starting out bearish.. will buyers step back in? Where could they? These are the prices I like for the upcoming sessions.
TVC:USOILShort
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Breaks structure.. to 1.057 Monthly Level?Hello Traders. EurUsd has been ranging for the last 3 weeks ever since May CPI data. We attempted to break to the upside last monday but this resulted in a failed breakout and better than forecasted US Jobs data pulled USD down with strong momentum. Price retreated all the way to the bottom of the daily range on friday at 1.08 Daily support level. It appears this momentum has sustained itself as price gapped down over the weekend and we observed a further selloff during the first trading session of the week , moving another 25 pips. I do see some buying pressure off 1.07478 moving into London trading and to begin the week. Looking at the June Monthly candle, we are just pulling straight down thus far. Can we extend to the bottom of the Monthly range at 1.057? It seems likely the dollar will remain strong for some time given the strong labor market data and the Higher for Longer Interest rates concept. Safe trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx