Europe is treading a fine line between growth and inflationEuropean equities have ushered in 2023 with a strong rebound, up 7.72%1. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows into the European region have risen by US$13bn, in sharp contrast to the US that has seen US$9bn of outflows year-to-date (YTD)as of 27 February 2023.
The confluence of China re-opening its economy and prudent management of resources during the energy crisis, alongside better valuations, helped European equities flourish. Essentially, the worst impact from the energy crisis that was priced in for Europe did not end up materialising, thereby improving sentiment.
Resilient Q4 2022 earnings season but outlook remains cautious
Europe is seeing better earnings growth for Q4 2022, up 8.81%3. The deep value parts of the market – financials, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare – continue to contribute to positive earnings growth. At the same time, China’s reopening has benefitted cyclical sectors across consumer discretionary and communications which posted the strongest earnings growth up 49% and 38% respectively4.
At 8% of sales, Europe has the second-highest exposure to China after Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan). It therefore would make sense to position for a better China macro-outlook in the sectors with the highest revenue exposure to China – semiconductors, materials, consumer durables, energy, and automobiles. We also know Chinese consumers saved one-third of their income last year, depositing 17.8 trillion yuan ($2.6 trillion) into banks, and investors are pinning their hopes on those savings finding their way into Europe’s luxury goods market.
Another factor favouring European equities has been European buyback activity which has increased to a record level, with a net buyback spend reaching around 220bn thereby creating an additional yield of around 2%5. This has helped Europe’s total yield (that is, buyback + dividends) outpace that of the US for the first time in 30 years.
Headwinds persist from further tightening by European Central Bank (ECB)
Euro-area Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI) continued their rebound in February reaching a nine-month high of 51, helped by easing headwinds from the energy crisis and resilient consumer spending amidst fading inflation. Headline inflation in the Euro-area for January dipped to 8.6%, showing further evidence that price pressures are easing6. However, core inflation in the Euro-area rose to 5.6%5 from 5.2% in December, highlighting that underlying price pressures continue to remain sticky. The more resilient economic data of late is likely to keep the ECB on a more hawkish monetary path. As monetary policy works with approximately a 10 - 12 month lag, we are yet to see the full impact of the recent spate of tightening.
Euro-area M1 growth is down to 0.6%, marking the second weakest reading on record pointing to weaker growth ahead. Furthermore, the Q1 results of the ECB Bank Lending Survey showed Euro-area credit conditions tightening at the fastest pace since 2009. In the Euro-area, moves in M1 growth tends to lead economic momentum by six months. This suggests that tighter monetary policy is leading to reduced credit availability for the real economy.
Tailwinds from looser fiscal policy to aid the Euro-area recovery
Prior to the Ukraine war, the Euro-area was characterised by relatively tight fiscal policy. However, the shock of the energy crisis drove a shift in fiscal policy. Governments are loosening their fiscal purse strings again, offering significant support to both consumers and businesses amidst the recent energy shock. Government expenditure, as a share of GDP, surged to almost 60% as COVID-19 hit (from just over 45% prior to the virus) and it is now rising again higher than before the pandemic7. The Eurozone budget deficit is now widening and heading towards 4% of GDP. Eurozone government expenditure as a share of GDP in 2022, through Q3, was 3% higher than the average from 2017 to 2019, with revenues up less than 1%. The think tank, Bruegel, estimates that EU economies have set aside €680bn to date to protect consumers from the energy crisis, which comes in addition to the EU Recovery Funds (€750bn from 2021 to 2027) which are now flowing. This is close to 10% of GDP, which excludes the cost of COVID-19 support.
The European economy remains caught between tailwinds – loose fiscal policy, easing energy prices, strong labour market, the re-opening of the Chinese economy – and headwinds of a weakening credit cycle in response to tighter monetary policy. Amidst this macro backdrop we expect investors to be more selective as the existing tailwinds should help Europe endure a milder than expected recession.
Monetary
Brace for volatility as inflation meets recession2023 has been ushered in with a rebound in pockets of equity underperformance from 2022. Markets are coming to terms with the fact that stickier inflation and more resilient economic data globally are likely to keep central banks busy this year. Owing to which the spectre of interest rates staying higher for longer appears to be the dominant theme for the first half of 2023. Global money market curves are re-pricing higher to reflect the tighter monetary scenario.
For the Federal Reserve (Fed), markets have priced in a 5.5% terminal rate, somewhat higher than was suggested by the median dot plot back in December. While in Europe, 160Bps of additional rate hikes are being priced for the European Central Bank (ECB) with terminal rate forecasts approaching 4%. The speculative frenzy witnessed since the start of 2023, indicates that equity markets are discounting the fact that the global economy has not faced such an aggressive pace of tightening in more than a decade and the ramifications, although lagged, will eventually be felt across risk assets.
Preference for international vs US equities
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows since the start of 2023 resonate investors’ preferences to diversify their portfolios with a higher allocation to international markets versus the US. Since the start of 2023, international equity market ETFs have received the lion’s share of inflows, amounting to US$20.6bn in sharp contrast to US equity ETFs that suffered US$9.3bn in outflows.
Looking back over the past decade, US companies outpaced international stocks owing to two main drivers of equity price appreciation: earnings and valuation. Earnings remain the key driver for equity markets over the long term. If we try to think about what lies ahead, we can see that earnings revision estimates are displaying a marked turnaround for China, Japan, and Emerging Markets (EM), whilst the US and Europe are poised to see further earnings contractions.
China’s recovery remains the important swing factor that could enable its economy, alongside EM and Japan, to outperform global equities in 2023. At 8% of sales, Europe has the second highest exposure after Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) to China. Yet it’s important to bear in mind that European companies earn twice the amount of revenue from the US than from China. So, a soft landing in the US will be vital for Europe to continue its cyclical rally.
US valuations remain high vs international developed and EM equities
US equity market valuations from a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remain high globally, whilst Japan continues to trade at a steep 29% discount to its 15-year average. Amidst the recent rally, European valuations at a 13.7x P/E ratio remain at a 14% discount to its 15-year average. That being said, three months ago European equity valuations were trading at a 35% discount to its 15-year average. After travelling half the distance to their long-term average, European valuations might have to contend with the headwinds of tighter monetary policy.
Evident from the chart above, international markets ex-US continue to boast of favourable valuations allowing for a higher margin of safety, which is why we expect investor positioning to tilt in favour of international markets ex-US over the course of 2023.
The battle between Energy and Technology stocks
The Energy sector is coming off a strong year, as tight supplies and rising demand drove energy prices higher in 2022. While these dynamics have failed to play out so far in 2023, owing to the speculative frenzy in riskier parts of the market, we expect earnings results for energy companies, and their stock performance across the spectrum (including oil, gas, refining and services), to maintain momentum in 2023. Whilst investment in oil and gas production has been rising, it will still take multiple years for global supply to meet demand, which continues to support the narrative of higher energy prices.
Refining capacity continues to look tight this year, given the reduced capacity and long lead time required to bring new capacity online. We expect this to support another strong year for the profitability of refining operators. At the same time, energy service companies should also benefit as spending on exploration and production continues to gather steam. The biggest risk to the sector remains if demand for energy falters in the face of a severe recession. However, as we expect most economies to face a modest recession, this risk is less likely for the Energy sector.
Meanwhile, higher interest rates were the key driver of the underperformance of the Technology sector last year. We continue to see weakness in the Technology sector amidst rising risks of peak globalisation, weaker earnings, and the potential for more regulation. Despite the recent layoff announcements by technology firms, they still appear inflated, with employee growth in recent years 20% too high relative to real sales growth. The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated the demand in software and technology spending with the rise of remote work and social distancing. However, companies today are more likely to cut their technology spending to offset the higher costs of energy, travel, wages, and other factors. The key risk, in our view, remains that valuations have come down, and if rates do begin to peak, selective technology companies could benefit from the growth generated by their cost-cutting initiatives.
Value vs Growth in 2023
Value stocks tend to be positively correlated with higher inflation. In 2022, high inflation was a result of rising commodity prices, labour shortages, and fiscal stimulus provided by Western economies, whilst Growth stocks were penalised for their lofty valuations. Value-based stocks flourished on commodity supply constraints and cheaper valuations amidst a rising rate environment. Much of this is now priced into Value stocks. Most Value stocks’ earnings growth and valuation re-ratings rely on higher commodity prices or interest rates or a factor outside of their control. Owing to this, we still believe there are opportunities where constrained supply in the absence of falling demand will continue to support higher prices.
There are significant prospects in Europe and Asia where discounts remain wide and sizeable valuation gaps exist across sectors. Europe’s energy sector accounted for two-thirds of Europe’s EPS (earnings per share) growth in 2022. The continuing trend of capital discipline, resilient earnings, and high shareholder returns should keep attracting flows into the sector in 2023. We expect Value stocks to be in better shape to withstand the global economic slowdown. Historically, the Value factor has demonstrated resilience during periods of interest rate volatility.
Conclusion
There is considerable uncertainty about how 2023 will unfold. As the key focus moves from inflation to a recession in 2023, it opens up the possibility of several outcomes for central banks and interest rates. Keeping this in mind, 2023 may well be a tale of two halves, with higher interest rates in the first half, followed by lower rates in the second half as a global recession takes centre stage.
How far will it fall this time?After finding more gold than has been recorded to date, how low will gold sink?
President Vladimir Putin said that the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – are currently working on setting up a new global reserve currency.
“The issue of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of our countries is being worked out,” the member states are also developing reliable alternative mechanisms for international payments.
Why is this happening? The dollar has long been seen as the world's reserve currency, but its dominance in share of international currency reserves is waning. Central banks are looking to diversify their holdings into currencies like the yuan, as well as into non-traditional areas like the the Swedish krona and the South Korean won, according to the International Monetary Fund.
"This is a move to address the perceived US-hegemony of the IMF," ING's global head of markets Chris Turner said in a note.
It will allow BRICS to build their own sphere of influence and unit of currency within that sphere.
Market reaction on FED's change in monetary policy is irrationalThe stock and crypto market reactions on for some time known FED's change in monetary policy is an emotional overreaction driven by fear. As you can see from the graph that compares Nasdaq's Index development over the last years with US State Interest rates there was a period from 2015 to 2019 with climbing interest rates and climbing NDQ as well. Directly before the global start of Corona pandemic the US Interest Rate was 1.75%. Currently, the markets expect an up to four times increase of some 0.25% per step in 2022, perhaps resulting in 1.25% at the end of the trading year - so what are we in fear of ???
What changed at Nasdaq and Crypto during the Corona Years 2020 and 2021 is the steepness of the price increase - but is this increase of Tech and Crypto really mainly driven by a very low level of interest rates? Surely not, as we have already seen such low interest rates in the period of 2008/9 to 2015 during the global financial crisis and there was not such increase in the steepness of price development. Moreover, innovative tech companies which calculate with double digit sales increase per year can not be severely damaged by an interest rate increase of some 1%.
To my mind, what really changed in 2020 and 2021 and boostered Tech Stocks and Crypto similarly, is a new awareness of the relevance of the global digital social and business model. As never before, Corona let us understand that digital and technical innovations are of systemic importance to jointly master the challenges of the future and Crypto's Blockchains may form a catalytic and secure fundament to trade and socially connect people peer to peer all over the world.
Yours
Edgar Neufeld
Germany
Is the wedge pattern real in Australia?In this post, we will analyze the principles and features of the AUD / USD currency pair and identify the points and signs of buying and selling.
Basics
Minutes of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting were held at 6 am Iranian time today. The following is a summary of this meeting.
The meeting discussed the slowdown in Australia's economic growth compared to other countries in the world. Comments were also made on the effectiveness of vaccination and the limitations of Covid 19 in preventing further outbreaks.
It was decided not to increase bank interest rates until 2024
Unemployment is falling in developed countries and labor demand is so high that wages have risen, members said.
They are going to continue to buy bonds. The Bank of Australia bond-buying program is also expanding faster than the securities of many central banks.
Members also stressed the importance of maintaining lending standards. They found that the Delta outbreak delayed recovery and increased uncertainty about the future.
Technically
The AUD / USD hit a low of 0.71 on 20 August 2021 and a high of 0.748 on 3 September.
Prices have been on a downward channel since September 3.
Within 15 minutes, we see the formation of a corner pattern. The best time to enter trades is when signs of a downturn are seen in the market.
Key points
If the corner pattern matches the image:
First T / P = 0.7255
Second T / P = 0.724
If it is contrary to the pattern of the image, it means that the triangle is broken upwards:
First T / P = 0.7285
Second T / P 0.73 =
Eco/monetary news n°28: They never cease to amaze me> Chinese court rules LGBT can be called mental disorder, liberal media finds their anti-Putin martyr is huge racist 😂
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In China, the US best friend, a student sued a book publisher for including in a psychology book the information that homosexuality was a mental disorder, and the people's court said "Ye so what? They got a point." (I am paraphrasing).
As the US collapses and is unable to pressure China they might send the LGBT community to camps.
Another similar thing that happened is a Korean soldier that identified as another gender commited suicide, like very of them do, but of course US citizens are blaming the military with 0 evidence like it just HAS to be their fault somehow.
Yet another habit France has exported to the US: whining and blaming others all the time.
I am sure Apple will cut ties to China and Biden will resume the trade war. HAHAHA just kidding of course I don't expect this.
After Saint George Floyd the symbolic martyr of the liberal media, now they hid really hard. They outdid themselves.
Now it's Saint Alexei Navalny the symbolic martyr. They are really good at doing their research.
An opposant to Putin, the liberal media and globalist organisation have officially made him a martyr. Nice 😆
Let me explain to you who Alexei is, you see the internet, even american sites, are full of videos of him.
Alexei would like to "exterminate all cockroaches and flies". In a video he was explaining how nationalism was like dentistry (wat?).
What a guy. Literal neo-nazi. He's worse than Hitler he literally openly says he wants to exterminate everyone 😆
The gloablist-liberal martyr. A literal neo-nazi. Well done. "We're on the right side of history". This is too funny not to comment.
Global organisation "Amnesty" found out and panicked "uh wait we are removing his prisoner of conscience status". Haha!
> I salute Nigeria for their outstanding decision to ban the scammy criminal vehicles called cryptocurrencies 👍
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The country that is now the 25th world economy, prob top 20 soon as everyone else collapses, has banned crypto trading.
More precisely the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have.
They also asked institution to close the accounts of all their clients involved with the pyramid schemes.
In a statement from Nwanisobi, acting director of the central bank, said even famed investor Warren Buffett has called cryptocurrencies “rat poison squared,” a “mirage,” and a “gambling device.”.
First he outlines it's nothing more than a pyramid scheme or a gambling device if you prefer, with extreme volatility and risk and 0 value, the bitcoin bagholders like any good criminal lie through their teeth and pretend "the tech" yes sure, "the teeeech" riiiiight, this is why they get so angry at ideas with a red line to zero, because they care about the tech.
Secondly: "Second, the very name and nature of “cryptocurrencies” suggests that its patrons and users value anonymity, obscurity, and concealment. The question that one may need to ask therefore is, why any entity would disguise its transactions if they were legal. It is on the basis of this opacity that cryptocurrencies have become well-suited for conducting many illegal activities including money laundering, terrorism financing, purchase of small arms and light weapons, and tax evasion."
Well basically what we all already know. They're scams and dishonest Bitcoin bagholders defense is still "can't be a scam because it is based on technology" which makes so much sense.
> I salute the NYAG for fining the crooks behind the Tether fraud $18.5 million over ‘deceptive’ trading practices 👍
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It took 2 years but here we are. It's not diffamation anymore, they are officially crooks. We are used to this so we did not truly expect much, not jail or a complete end to their activities, nah same as usual, a small fine for a big crime.
But it's still something, not sure if it will be enough for them to think twice before manipulating the price, now rather they might think "hey we got away with it last time, let's do it again".
Since the pyramid scheme they threw money in, Bitcoin, went up, they can repay the money they stole so who cares right?
This is how justice works. Steal money, go to the casino with it, if you win it's all good. Very responsible.
> Yellen backs new allocation of IMF's SDR (the IMF currency) to help poor nations (does this include the USA?) 😏
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The US goes back on Trump decision to stop this, they want to continue throwing pity money at garbage regimes, to keep them in power, miserable but not enough to rebel, and maintain their economies down, making sure there is a constant inflow of migrants to support retirees, as well as prevent those countries to organise and increase oil & other goods prices. Well done America!
They also use this to look good and threw some catchwords around in random order "democracy good something something good guys versus bad guys miss teen speech existential crisis climate change" (global warming new name because no one can deny the climate changes wow genius except China still doesn't give a rats ass and they are the world largest economy and soon call the shots get used to it).
> Braindead or troll? Powell: US economy still ‘a long way’ from meeting Fed goals. It is going to sting... 😏
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What are their goals? Not becoming a third world country? Not even going to check.
The US economy must have contracted by close to 100% by now lmao, all being hidden by debt like a husband that lost his job and borrows from friends to hide it from his wife.
Are they really this delusional? When reality catches up it is going to STING. Honestly I can't even imagine how it will possibly play out it is going to be so brutal. Something like Greece I guess? Greece but worse. Worse than the USSR obviously, the USSR did not borrow and import for 20 years to hide the decline. Americans today are complete morons so they won't bounce back, they won't rebuild. I guess states will exit the union and some might do ok. Young americans are so weak, lazy, dumb, entitled, stubborn versus reality.
I don't expect many to take me seriously but you will see, and remember: good times make weak men. They're more than weak here.
"Buying time" was really so bad, should have taken the pill 10-20 years ago.
> Share buying mistakes (because of similar tickers) is on the rise, now bigger than 5% of all trading 🤦♂️
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Kek. I have been repeating for a while there were more and more idiots. Well here is another manifestation of it: They can't even buy the correct stock.
I have no words...
If China does not want to be left holding the bag (they are not strong enough to force America to pay), they have to make smart decisions, including buying gold.
Of course chinese people are not stupid & clueless like americans, therefore they already know this, and are already buying gold and more.
For individual investors too obviously gold is a good way to protect these gains. I don't even remember if we can hold our trading accounts in gold or has to be a fiat 🤔
$1700 is a good price. I can't tell where it goes so anywhere between 1000 & 2000 is fine. For keeping liquid money, risk capital, it is more volatile than Fiats (-) but it does not go to zero (+).
I think there are no broker that lets people have gold accounts... even Bitcoin allows this but not gold. Go hold your worthless ponzis going to zero nice.
Only way is to freeze yet more capital, with limited leverage, and fees... I don't want my trading account to be in shitty euros or dollars...
Actually they are a few, a small handful, of brokers doing this now.
The end of the west is closeIf I had to make a guess I would say Bitcoin will top and crash in June, and the stock market will have its big Niagara falls in September and this will symbolically mark the beginning of the end.
It could happen later, the later it happens the worse it gets.
This info is easy to find, no need to list all my sources.
The population is getting older, and migrants will stop coming to support retirements
Yes the population of Europe is old, and it keeps getting worst.
Until last year, when China made its own economic/monetary zone any attempt at challenge to the USD was crushed. Since the fall of the USSR obviously.
A journalist that read Hilary mails wrote this:
"So do you think it would it be easier for the Obama administration to rally American support behind this 'regime change' by explaining how the French wanted to steal Libya's wealth and maintain French neocolonial influence over Africa - or would Americans respond better to propaganda themes about Gaddafi passing out Viagra to his troops so they could rape more women while his snipers targeted innocent children? Bingo!"
And the truth is always "conspiracy theory". Lmao western public opinion is mentally retarded I swear.
If I am correct back in 2017 Ghana president told france "gtfo" (politely), "we don't want your help anymore" and he explained that african migrants are like italian migrants of the last century, they'll stop running away as the countries grow, and they are growing.
In 2019 the same man called the african diaspora to bring back stolen wealth in front of Macron, called the African-European relation non-natural, and criticized the narrative of "poor desperate people running away for a better life". He reminds that 1/4 of Chinese investments that made it grow into what it became came from chinese migrants, sending money back home.
A link to the official page of the event by french "white house":
www.elysee.fr
Ghana president even said what I've been repeating for long! I love it! "We have to change the narrative about africa, and we can only do it ourselves. We have to get away from the idea that there is a father christmas somewhere that is going to come develop our continent for us." Lmao and tell this to western pro "free stuff".
Ghaddafi got killed for less than this but Akufo-Addo is still breathing.
The numbers are out there, the western population is aging, the working age population is in a downtrend, US & EU are desperate for working and taxpaying migrants.
I'm not sure if this covid lockdown thing made things worse, or if it is creating austerity, people still work and produce but they consume less.
Plus migration is a big ponzi scheme, their children are not integrated at all, all unemployed, and often small time criminals. So you got to bring in even MOAR migrants to also pay for the welfare of the previous migrant's children.
Debt and spending to GDP is ridiculous
As "leftists" have pointed out so much, inequality has been growing in the past ~60 years.
France spends 60% of its fake GDP. It's fake because they add to actual production government spending which produces nothing, they just tax themselves it's not real wealth.
Growth died at least 10 years ago, and what they pretend is growth now is actually just taxing yourself to spend your money and count it twice.
At least the USSR was honest about this...
If it was real wealth, and you know, west Europe was so much stronger than other countries, far above them, why would they need the US to defend them against Russia & Turkey? A vastly greater economy should have no issue defending itself, military power follows even if it is ignored.
You know what is funny about inequality growing in the past 60 years? It is directly correlated to government transfers (you know, of money, like welfare) :)
Of course, masterminds are asking for even MOAR of it! I guess 60 years is not enough time for the info to reach the brain.
60 years ago government transfers in the US represented less than 5% of americans income. In 2020 it has grown steadily (but exponentially) to 30%, ballooned a bit recently.
Now where did I see this number before let me think. Of right! Rome. Rome had no grain future market so prices fluctuated a lot, and the senate/officials bought futures from Egypt and when the price went up too much they covered the difference for those that could not afford bread.
Obviously as always it kept escalating and by 45 BC, 1 year before Caesar death the system was super abused (they'd argue that they had no choice LOL SURE).
30% of Rome was getting free bread (not just the difference in price), Caesar was aware this was just nuts and he cut this number in 2. But this did not save the republic.
Senators that abhorred Caesar and were unable to bipartisan impeach him after he crossed the rubicon, bipartisan stabbed him to death the next year.
And then it all degenerated into a massive civil war and 17 years after his death the Roman Empire was born. GG.
Michael Burry has also drawn parallels with Germany just before Hitler.
Bill Ackman which is famous for being VERY VERY VERY wrong AND stubborn when he is wrong, repeated his short bet like last year, but I think he is too early.
I now have access to american options, I will purchase some puts this summer I think.
China will collect its debts
China has openly panicked about their giant foreign currency bags, they are afraid they go to zero and they got scammed after working for decades.
last year they caused the big downtrend of the USD starting in the summer or even earlier but I think China started selling in summer, the downtrend against their currency is still going.
They cannot do this with the US (who knows though) but with Europe? Haha good luck grandpas. China will send an armada, put their foot on land and say "Can't pay? No problem, we'll take what we want".
They made it abundantly clear they were not going to bend over and let westerners literally scam them out of what was theirs.
They worked and exported for several decades, and they won't just take it with a smile and say "oh well tough luck", the debt owed to China will not magically disappear and let's all forget about it and just go about our day. I can guarentee this.
How delusional?
China will come to Europe, and they will take your monuments, they will take your bridges, they will take your factories, they will take your doctors, they will take your engineers, they will take your gold.
This may sound like a bad movie plot, exagerated or whatever, but it has happened. And it WILL happen.
Hey recently Elliot management vulture-man went to Argentina and tried taking their warships. But he is just a man. China WILL take Europe warships. China is not a solo billionaire dude. They will be able to leave with what they want.
This leads to war but it won't lead to war here, what will pathetic lazy sedentary comfy 60 year old west europeans do? Shut up and submit.
A grim conclusion, but each man for himself, if we prepare we can do well, and let them sort this mess. My destination will be England or North Africa. Good luck liberals.
The west is going to die. And it will all snowball. Their weakining will lead to more weakening. As they decline they won't be able to defend their interest so it will all fall apart.
This is all long term analysing, but what was predictable for decades is now becoming reality. And it might all start accelerating violently this very year.
If you thought 2020 was bad I got news for you...
The west won't be able to continue to enforce their ponzi currency the us dollar. It has even already began in asia. Huge news that went under the radar in maintream.
The west won't be able to continue neo-colonialism and the pillage of Africa.
The west won't be able to continue to spread propaganda.
The west won't be able to continue to suck in working age migrants to support their massive senior population.
The west won't have enough of their own population to be able to support their seniors.
The west will get a lost century like Japan got a lost decade.
The west non native populations will leave & those that stay rebel.
The west will get plundered by China that will take what is rightfully theirs.
The west will degenerate into civil war with the end of democracy as result, I don't know if the next government will be fascists but they will be called fascists.
No matter the turn of events, no matter what miracles happen, in any case there is 0 possibility to support all these old people, and they will die.
It is 100% impossible to give a high standard of living and good medical treatment to so many seniors. It's not socialism versus capitalism here. It's just maths at that point.
This is not sarcasm or an expression, they will DIE, in the literal sense. Like what happens when they get covid, but this will be like 1000 covids. They will DIE. DIE. DIE. DIE.
Those that made children will have kids to take care of them. Those without kids had "their fun" right? They did not want to waste years of their lives right?
Then isn't it normal if they die a few years earlier? Welcome to nature.
The UK might survive while France, Germany, Benelux, and Italy sink into this mess, the UK has always survived. No need to mention Portugal and Spain that are already third world countries.
Bye Bye growth, oh hello turbulent timesIf my idea is not displaying correctly here is a screenshot:
I hope this is not too thick to read. An edited video would be better.
Or maybe I could make a version with small screenshots rather than 1 big block of text?
A little additional explanation if you are interested ==>
Part 1: France 2022 elections
Frenchies are complaining about "toxic ideas that come from the anglo-saxon world". LOL.
Someone explain to the french all these "cultural marxist" ideas don't come from the USA/Canada/etc but FROM FRANCE.
They merely embraced these ideas, France was born in them, molded by them.
They were born here in France buddies, exported to the english speaking world, and they are simply coming back like a boomerang.
The far right is for the first time getting 50% intentions of vote at turn 2.
In April 2017 they came second in turn 1, and EURUSD gapped 150 points iirc over that weekend.
In France the president forms the government, he decides who the unelected first minister will be.
It's like the UK where the queen appoints the first minister expect no one has a clue who it will be, or even heard of that guy until he get appointed 😃
These elections are not only important because the far right & the gap but also because in 2022 it is France that will preside the European Union 😃
And the french far right is stupposed to be pro Frexit, but recently they have been flaunting the vertues of Europe (to get votes).
So who knows?
The major left wing party, LFI, are now the demon, and liberals want to get their voters. LFI is our Trump. I wrote several times this right wing demonization was BS and they'd do it to the left in a heartbeat, and here we are 😉.
LFI calls them the party of freedom, actually not even a party but "just an idea" (with elected officials under that banner but w/e).
LFI says they are not islamo-gauchistes (a dum dum concept invented by the media to tell their sheep who to frown at, just like the word "racist"). LFI says they're not even leftists but just the people that are pro-freedom. Trying to avoid dum dum demonization?
Not leftists lmao, they praise the virtues of a planned economy, are in awe of the soviet union, form alliances with communists, want to tax high earners at 100%, call celebrities & athletes worthless parasites (isn't that true though?), and the worse part: Hate multinationals! Oh no not our monopolistic profits. Oh no! How dare you criticize Gilead and Pfizer! Conspiracy theorist!
So here we have the truth.
Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the UK? The Brexit clan, anti-multinational.
Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the US? The Trump clan, anti-multinational.
Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in France? The Stalinists, anti-multinational.
They tried taking away their profits, and so they declared war on them...
After WW2 there was a debate. Was Hitler inevitable, or an anomaly?
It was concluded, and is now the scientific consensus (HAHAHAHA!) that fascism & communism were the outcome of short term problems. Don't you dare say they fixed the problems.
Economists say Hitler built a monster economy BUT he was mean therefore it does not count (seriously that's what they say).
The NSDAP was so successful that they lost their mind... What they did with that success is not the question.
What is in focus is the answer to the question "why are liberals so terrified of national-socialist fascism if they have so little support"?
Because they win. They get strong. Germany went from a third world country to a superpower.
To take down that small country it took the entire Soviet Union, AND the USA, AND North Africa, AND all of Europe resistants.
Just damn.
It would not cross liberal-bourgeois minds that THEY are the problem.
If they do not get replaced by someone slightly radical that will fix the problem, it will keep getting worse.
Like the devil said to south park kids "ok you can postpone it but it will be 10 times worse".
Getting rid of Trump, getting rid of Marine Le Pen by baiting her voters to vote for you, to "buy time while problems solve themselves".
How dense are those people?
The fascists even love this because now they DO want it to get worse.
They consider Trump & Bolsonaro are traitors that are not the messiah they were hoping for.
They are even saying "voting will not remove them". And they may have a point.
EU & USA are old states. Old people don't vote for radical change.
They vote for the status quo, for "no waves" while they peacefully live their last days.
If adults go out in the street to start fighting will the "no waves" old people go fight?
They will tremble and home and pray for things to calm down. "Buy time" just such a dumb concept.
I don't want to go on and on so finally here: In 44 BC the roman swamp impeached Julius Caesar with knives.
Hurray! The populare dictator is gone! Hurray! Yay! Return to normalcy! (This was a slogan by a US candidate just before WW2 😆)
And then a civil war erupted and EVERY SINGLE CONSPIRATOR GOT BRUTALLY SLAUGHTERED. Yaaaay 😆
27 BC, 17 years after Caesar heinous murder, the Empire is born. Augustus Caesar's nephew is the Emperor.
Ah and the senate greatly lost power (hurray).
The swamp won't let people vote for "populism". "Just buy time problems will magically go away".
So we might end up with a power vacuum. So who will we get? Robespierre (Louis XVI vacuum), Hitler (Keiser/Caesar vacuum), Lenin/Stalin (Tsar N2 vacuum), a Caligula maybe?
Part 2: The population aging
More "buying time" (to make things worse later). Printing money to buy time. High IQ strat.
Watch GS Lloyd Blankfein interview/discussion of Paul Tudor Jones (June 18 2018):
"The hope is from the guys making the monetary policies that the growth catches up and solves the problem HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA"
The BOJ gave up this "monetary stimulus" nonsense. They just capitulated after trying so hard.
One nice thing is at some points they were so desperate to get their decade back they literally GAVE MONEY TO SPECULATORS.
When the USA & EU get desperate, and it might be soon, make sure to open your pockets.
Don't get too lost in numbers and statistics or (ewwww) "charting" and nonsense indicators that don't work, looking at fundamentals & bankers mindset sometimes can provide über opportunities.
That 2-in-1 idea is packed enough, I'll leave it here, and make something lighter next time.
There is a lot to consider this is not a trivial game, there is no magical ichokumookookoo indicator that tells us what to do with 0 effort 0 info on anything, regardless of everything 😂
And also makes us rich quickly in top of lazilly.
BITCOIN: You have to be nuts to short this limited resourceBitcoin is revolutionary. The mass still own zero of it but everyone's heard about it. Accumulating at the dip. MMT: Modern Monetary Theory. This is what created Bitcoin and what is driving it at insane levels. We've seen nothing yet.
Now we have whales entering via fund and stocks for companies in this space. Miners on Bitcoin and Validators on ETH.
Exciting time to be in crypto.
ThrillThe USDOLLAR is continuing its road to zero and ignorant bitcoin "investors" and "experts" have no clue what the real reason for their magic beans going up is.
Bitcoin is behaving pretty predictably. In the details can't tell if the price stays around 20k for long, or keeps going up, going to depend on how fast the USD falls. Depends how excited the crypto community gets.
But for sure BTC is "following" the general global monetary & geopolitic situation.
Bitcoin permabulls are starting to get thrilled. Excited bagholders looking to FOMO in (after exiting a few months ago) are not able to log in and buy (lol)!
The CME also just announced they would launch Ethereum futures.
Out of all the instruments available, smart money can look for the best trade, best pullback best RR:
Euro, Krona, Indonesian bonds, or even Bitcoin, whatever it may be.
🤔
China currency is likely just going to strengthen, the west will continue to collapse, and in 3 years the Vietnamese middle class will come spend their strong currencies on holiday in the US, UK, France & Germany.
If BTC competes with China east asian regional currency (that competes with the USD) they might have to ban BTC.
Crypto CFDS are gone in Europe, if I want to bet on BTC I can go through Kraken, I think I'll just pass.
Might as well just short USDCNY & USDSEK that keep winning, there is literally no difference with buying BTC, it is the same trade.
Long term investments for me - this is a side activity - will be Asian fixed income tools as well as maybe a few UK, Australia, Scandinavian, and Asian stocks, certainly not some coinflip crypto lottery ticket; and I will not take much risk personally, my goal is very slow and steady, safe bonds mostly, even with very small returns, just want certainty and as little risk as possible.
Crypto is random and it has a high risk of getting banned.
The west and the US can continue to collapse for a while so everything including Bitcoin can continue to go up.
With asians making their own money and China "conquering" Hong Kong (for its financial center what else?), they will invest their surplus in their own economies rather than continue to finance the US growth & comfort social programs.
France is even worse, social programs ALONE are a bigger % of GDP than the ENTIRE China public spending in % of GDP.
I think they plan on robbing people savings directly, to survive a bit longer. Better flee to the UK or anywhere else before this happens.
The UK might survive. They have demographic issues though, and have a hard time securing their borders, and already have 1000 tribes fighting each other, and they still have not started taking pro-natality measures (will they ever?).
For delusional BTC "true believers" that think BTC is going up on its own:
Asian money just going to keep on keeping
Recently I had a very good buy on Bitcoin, with Europe guaranteeing losses, comfy.
But it all got banned, too many noobs getting their faces ripped off.
I do not think it is worth the trouble to go out of our way to get some BTC. I won't. Just cannot be bothered.
In PPS:
- China 16% of world GDP
- USA 16% of world GDP
- EU (-UK) 16% of world GDP
Apart from banning crypto CFD I don't see what the EU has in mind? Maybe they ban Bitcoin because it transmits covid? (according to them)
I'd keep my eyes on the USA currency and on what China will do.
I see no reason for the price of Bitcoin not to keep going up.
Bad apocalyptic news N°19You get 7 this time. The last one is sort of an idea of its own, a delicious dessert. I'll try keeping it rather short and get to the point, just lay out the facts and maybe add a little bit of satisfactory gloating here and there.
> Reports of Interactive Brokers freezing some clients accounts for months with no comm since they got fined by FINRA 🔨
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Sad clients are mad their money is stuck and they are not getting any news.
The prime brokerage got fined a while ago for not enforcing anti laundering laws harshly enough, so now they are very serious about it.
Clients are finding their accounts stuck for months. They are complaining on forums and social networks.
Haha if I move there I'll send a little bit of money and make sure everything works fine before committing anything serious.
Once central banks have their pyramid scheme crypto they can control everything and this kind of stuff won't happen anymore?
> Warren Buffett's deputy reveals 6% stake in Dillard's stock: brainless sheep rush in and the stock rallies 46% right after 🐑
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Greedy mouth breathing bottom chasers & sheep hedge funds (got an idea about those coming tomorrow or soon) reptilian brain fired full power here.
According to Robintrack... Well I think you already know what I will say 😆 Haha I love these kids. The company posted bad results and the share price crashed, dum dums bought, and since it barely went up they started aggressively selling to breakeven. I laughed my lungs out but I am tired of typing the same thing over and over.
Buffett deputy doing pump and dumps now.
Warren Buffett tells people to buy strong companies cut their losses and hold their winners no one bats an eye.
Warren Buffett goes "hey look at this dead bag down 90% I think they might bounce back" people fight each other to buy like they fought for toilet paper in '20.
Noobs have been using Buffett "long term" quotes as an excuse for decades to justify holding worthless bags and buying very sad companies in big trouble.
There is really not much competition in this business these days... All the smart people are doing stat arb and abusing dumb day gamblers, the medium term (1 week - 1 year) are mindless sheep... And the only people holding for years are lazy and mindless passive index bagholders that are about to learn a valuable lesson (even less than 1 year potentially).
> 2007 flashbacks: IMF warns the bank sector is likely to be tested, and warns of permanent economic damage from covid ☄️
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So they dropped the expression "warns of risks", it was getting absolutely ridiculous even brain damaging to ctrl-f one of their reports and find the sentence "warns of risk" 780 times 😆.
They're not even pretending anymore, we're at the stage where they are basically telling everyone it is a good time to panic.
The plebes have no idea but they will learn soon enough, the lesson will be very memorable to them even 🙃
The World Bank said up to 150 million more people may be pushed into extreme poverty by 2021 => "wE hAvE to SAve LivES"
The IMF mentioned a debt crisis, a surprising evaporation of liquidity in the US treasury market.
A couple of quotes:
"Some pre-existing financial vulnerabilities are now intensifying, representing potential headwinds to the recovery"
"The increased links between corporates, banks, and non-bank financial institutions imply that – at some point- fragilities could spread through the entire financial system"
"This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and it will take significant innovation on the policy front, at both the national and international levels, to recover from this calamity" - This should not be making me happy right?
"The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain"
If you want more you can go to their site and check their Global Financial Stability Report and their recent World Economic Outlook.
> Libyan governor warns Oil revenue has dropped to nothing & economic collapse is near. His words "bullet in the head" ☄️
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Libya is one of many Oil countries that is going to end up blowing up. It was already in bad shape since Obama "brought democracy" there.
If you thought ISIS & a few Libyan knife attackers were bad BOY DO I HAVE NEWS FOR YOU.
bUt wE hAd tO sAvE LivEs. We didn't even save anything. A few grandpas with a foot in the grave that were going to die in the next 12 months died a bit earlier. Sorry to anyone that lost someone but we all know this happens eventually. If you think this is bad then just wait till the world collapses into a massive world civil war with "diverse" countries just burning to the ground. Gosh what a mess.
Algeria has almost no cash reserves. We'll just print money to send them. But money isn't stuff. And so the whole world will feel the weight of the "help". You heard of the beefsteak nazi? They were the many communists and antifa "peaceful protestors" that joined the SA (brownshirt), the NSDAP paramilitary branch: Brown on the outside, red on the inside. I doubt many know this. I doubt many know Goebbels the ravenous anti-semite started as a Marxist. Man Goebbels hated jews so much even Himmler went "wtf man". There are videos of Joe where he is so angry about the jewish capitalist media he shakes.
Dammit I was on my way to get rich and NOW is when they are going to massively raise the taxes on the rich. Extreme bad luck to compensate for far above average foresight and intelligence I guess 🤷♂️
I don't even care about the money I just want to be number 1. Zzzz. They don't tax boxing belts or stupid video games elo...
Taxing the rich will make sure dum dums are less angry, but it makes zero difference in PP/poverty. It is just to pay the bankers that hold all this debt.
Let's tax productive people rather than deprive passive oligarch bankers of their profit.
Those idiotic politicians are going to mess up this so much... Like they do with everything... Like pressure from socialist banana republics and other broke dead oil countries wasn't enough. I can't wait for january 2021 the nwo is going to be so stupid they are going to come up with the worst ideas at the worst time.
I need to make a list of countries I can go to. Lay low for a while while the 1000 diverse tribes of Europe kill each other.
> Brrrrr: G7 central banks agree on a set of common principles around their bank-issued Bitcoin inspired pyramid scheme 🖨️
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The BIS + G7 banks have set a framework for a digital currency to work in conjunction with paper money.
"While technology is changing the way we pay, central banks have a duty to safeguard people's trust in our money"
"Central banks must complement their domestic efforts with close cooperation to guide the exploration of central bank digital currencies to identify reliable principles and encourage innovation"
Haven't they done enough already?
> WHO: "We’ve learned" (glad they admit they were wrong and I was right), no lockdown. US dems go "lalala can't hear you" 😏
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The World Bank said up to 150 million more people may be pushed into extreme poverty by 2021
I. WAS. RIGHT. AGAIN. AS. ALWAYS. I got flamed. My idea got banned. People raged at me. And I was right. As I always was.
Called the top of covid. Called the near zero deaths of the "second wave". Called the economic misery it would create. Called the 360 they would make "lockdown was bad after all".
I knew everything well in advance, I was right about everything as I always am. Anyone got anything to say? I was right all along about everything and in every detail. I am much smarter than all of these clown "experts".
Ye whatever it's all in the title, no point for me to add further comments...
Can read more, duckduckgo is your friend.
> OMG: A research paper finds that - you ready? - central bankers are biased on QE by career concerns, imagine my surprise 🖨️
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www.nber.org
"To assess the inherent conflict of interest . We find that central bank papers report larger effects of QE on output and inflation. Central bankers are also more likely to report significant effects of QE on output and to use more positive language in the abstract. Central bankers who report larger QE effects on output experience more favorable career outcomes. A survey of central banks reveals substantial involvement of bank management in research production."
Just like with scientists, politicians, and well everything I guess. Society rewards the spineless and punishes strong men. "Good times make..."
Same as with hedge funds. They are all sheep. They are rewarded for being sheep.
Honestly if you are smart it's not that hard to get decent returns... Almost all professionals are not even trying.
Science is so messed up and I just stopped believing in it. It has become so BS, so absurd, so sensationalistic. It's really dumb.
This is an endless loop that feeds on itself and keeps growing: bad central bankers get promoted in turn they help make bad central bankers (bad influence) and among those bad central bankers the worst ones get promoted... And you end up with an absolute pyramid scheme and idiots that have decided to print infinite money not even exaggerating they said it whatever it takes they will keep printing.
The USA are done. No more reserve currency. They are going to end up with communism or fascism, a big civil war. I wish Euro politicians were less stupid and built their military. They are cluelessly relaxing and leaning on the USA to protect them, but who will protect them from the USA?
It's like "No weapons = no war and no pain" ye tell that to 6 million jews, tell that to the Moriori. Who are the Moriori? Exactly.
☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️☄️
End of the world news N°16> Ubisoft recent game: includes evil organisation UMBRA with similar narrative & same symbol as BLM. That timing! 😂
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Ubisoft, a really solid & smart company, with great user experience, that holds its promises, has great servers that work really well, treats the licenses it buys with respect and does not destroy them, has recently published a game at the best timing (need to release it for Q3).
So their game (phone game), a Tom Clancy game, 1 of the rare license that survived Ubisoft, contains a terrorist organisation called "UMBRA" that are anarchists.
The opening sequence of the game shows "peaceful protestors" setting fires and insulting and fighting police. Holding signs "power to the people". Behind the peaceful protestors there is UMBRA, that uses a black raised fist just like the BLM one. They also have some A anarchist imagery that reminds us of Antifa.
The company, that was already under fire for its corporate practices (not just towards clients but inside the company), has been called fascists and so on, even people working for them (or a branch) have run to their little keyboards to rage at Ubisoft.
I do not know if they made the game before 2020 and then just released it at the best time, or if they tried profiting of the news.
The whole situation is funny as much Ubisoft move as the angered reactions.
Some might say that if 1984 was published today it would get banned.
> Quebec & Australia to send anti-lockdown protestors & uncooperative citizens + families in concentration camps. 🤨
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Who could possibly have seen this coming?
"Liberal" (LOL!) Australia & Canada (Québec) are planning to send anti-lockdown protestors & uncooperative citizens to "secret detention facilities".
I think it is safe to call those concentration camps, or gulags.
Canada is already known for their ultra-authoritative handling of the situation. Both government and companies.
A plane fight in Canada (from westjet) got cancelled because a family refused to have their 19 months kid wear a mask.
The enlightened crew got angry and tried to force them to comply because "it is the law" (no it's not).
The flight got cancelled and the sheepish passengers raged at the muslim family, shouting islamophobic slurs.
So we can assume those people are all idiotic sheep, and think this mask is good, but on a 1 year old? Doesn't sound weird? How about 1 month? Where does their tiny brain go "dring dring"? Never? Most of us learned of 20th century gulags and concentration camps and how "if it is accepted man is capable of any evil", people were skeptic. Well craziness is happening now.
When I was a teen I always thought I would not fall for it. "He thinks he knows things". "He has superiority complex".
Oh ye? Here we are. And as predicted, call me arrogant they ARE beneath me. Pfff exactly as I thought, go figure.
Just wait, in decades. In hindsight "every one will have known from the start".
Pisses me off when I see lesser plebes laugh at "stupid primitives and middle ages" thinking they are better and not knowing history gets compacted.
The corrupt politicians that are about to fall have the support of the scared sheeple. The scared sheeple that try so hard not to touch anyone and stay far away.
I wonder how many of them are aware that we are basically in constant contact with all of the cold viruses.
How do they think people that spend time alone in the cold end up sick? Santa brings the virus to them at night?
The things I could show these hypochondriacs that would scar them for life :D
Did you know we all have nightmarish looking "worms" with plenty of legs that live in our eyelashes?
Your face is full of tiny arthropodes. Think of them as tiny spiders.
Do you often feel tickles in your eyebrows and need to scratch them? (:
Oh and take my word for it: Cook your meat. Well. Especially pork (or just don't eat pork).
They do not even understand the concept of external immune defences or even just basic probabilities.
> "Green" french mayor is cancelling the town christmas tree because of "the suffering of poor little trees". A sect? 🌲
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"Mass delusions". Sheep behavior. We call it "mode" in france. I think the translation is "fad" but not sure it has the exact same meaning.
So in france the greens have this long term fad and they keep pushing it further. "De la surenchère" meaning always pushing it further, always trying to be more virtuous than previously.
It really reached the ridicule stage. Euphoria.
Back in the late 1790s in France after the terror that followed the revolution, people needed to let go, and there were different fads, including the "merveilleuses", these ladies wore extravagant costumes and were inspired by pagans & ancient greeks.
They kept escalating it, and the craziest, er I mean coolest, ended up wearing full transparent dresses.
There is a famous engraving showing a blind man tearing the dress of one of these mentally stable ladies and her being shocked "oh no every one can see my behind".
That was the top of the bubble by the way. The movement started a "bear market" after the public (conservatives I guess) were outraged by the "liberal liberated" women or whatever they called them back then. Same old story.
The greens are at this stage. Even sheep have to start thinking "ok this is too much" right? As we know, with everything, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", so the greens can get crazier before the bubble goes boom.
French greens at the moment are fighting to find out who is crazier, and looks like Bordeaux mayor is at the top: he cancelled the town christmas tree calling it "a dead tree" and whined about the effect man has on nature.
I'm just watching this whole circus with my imaginary 🍿.
> Anti vaxxer hating & belittling democrats: Trump promoted a covid19 vaccine, so now they are anti vaxxers too. 😉
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Another big surprise kappa. Democrats, some of which have been leaked saying "we need to keep schools/the economy closed until the re-election", known for being very violent towards anti-vaccination people - some will remember how all "conspiracy theory" and "vaccine skepticism" was demanded to be banned from amazon.
Well as you'd expect Trump said he'd have a vaccine ready soon, and was positive about it so now obviously all democrats are strong anti-vaxxers.
"Oh noooes we can't have a vaccine this fast other ones took years". "Oh noes there might be secondary effects we should make sure before using it".
"It might not be safe". "Who knows what is in this vaccine".
Sounds alot like the type of narrative they worked so hard to censor.
I'm really tired of these animals. Why must Europe, EUROPE, across the Atlantic!!!, take decisions because "Trump said".
I'm not an American. I do not care what Trump said. Stop telling me how Awful Trump is. Stop taking decisions based on what Trump said.
"Trump talked positively about Chloroquine, quick let's ban it in France". "Trump is against lockdown, ok every one at home now and for the next 3 months".
"Oh its the elections in the USA again every 4 year, time for Europe to have BLM riots". "Trump farted, now farts are illegal punishable by death".
About time these babies got cut off mommy's milk and start focussing on their own countries.
Of course this election is more important to them, the outdated 1945 world order is over and these bagholders can't let go.
And it's easier to win a civil war/impose a dictatorship when you control a country nuclear arsenal, and the army but they won't have that.
Can burgerland kill each other soon? It's getting time for their regular civil war so please hurry up, and european countries can have their weaning.
> American ignorance: 20% of NY gen Z & millenials think jews organised the holocaust. 58% cannot name 1 camp. 🤤
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Back a decade or two ago Europeans thought Americans were fat lazy ignorant idiots. Stereotypes are bad. Nah just kidding this is true.
Fatmericans 18 to 39 of in New York have been asked a few questions recently, and oh is it bad.
Maybe they are complete neo-nazis, but from what I saw (Mark Dice interviews, television, you know... the internet) I think they are ignorant.
2/3 of them have no clue where France or the UK is on a map. 11% cannot even locate the damn USA.
There are so many stats like this.
28 percent of respondents in New York believe it is acceptable to hold neo-Nazi views (no idea what this means), hey so maybe they're fascists and not just ignorant?
In any case you can't fight "progress", and WW2 is far from memories and slowly disappearing.
There are 2 things here:
1- Young Americans are completely ignorant, makes you wonder what is in their head. No idea what the 4rth of July is seriously?
2- The old global liberal world order that was a consequence of the traumatism of WW2 is fading away.
The USA has had a civil or major war at regular intervals, I will make an idea about it. It's way too precise to be a coincidence.
Politicians that think "nationalism" or whatever is the only way for wars/pain to happen and that globalism is the ultimate cure to everything are obviously braindead morons that learned something by heart at school and are incapable of thinking for themselves (as their pathetic handling of the coronavirus crisis has proven).
> Ethiopia is printing new magic beans replacing old ones "to fight crime". Personal request: please call it "Birr Forte". 🖨️
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Ah, let's end on magic beans. Ethiopia, that have had a double digit official inflation (reality might be higher) for the most part of the last 2 decades, is printing 200 magic beans denomination bills. "For security reasons and to fight crime" lmao. "Hoarding". "Counterfeiting". "And other ills affecting the economy" Try not to laugh challenge failed.
Has nothing to do with being over-conservative, having a history of communism (74-91), huge corporate taxes and regulations, or their diversity system (the country is organised in an ethno-federal fashion), having one of the lowest economic freedom indexes, being in the bottom of the list of countries where to build a business, oh and making it straight up illegal for foreigners to do anything involving money (banking, insurance, investing...). Not exactly an "open society" as George would say.
What is interesting about this is that the population only has 3 months to replace their ponzi pieces of paper with new ponzi pieces of paper.
In today anti-racist world I feel bad mentionning this country. Why? Because of 1 fact I doubt 99.9999% of americans know: the word comes from ancient greeks. "Ethiops" (how it sounds not how it is written) means "burn faces" (because of dark skin).
We should cancel this country for having a racist name.
Here is the chart of their wonderful currency. Few countries are poorer & have a worse HDI than them. They used to be at the very bottom I think, but now they got a solid dozen countries that are even worse.
Other countries & history keeps showing every one how too much communism, too much conservatism, too much liberalism, too much pumping stocks even, and so on, is bad.
But hey, those small heads don't have the space to contain Miley Cirus lyrics AND all these complicated facts.
It's not every new generation (10-20Y) but every new GENERATION (50-100Y) goes through the same thing it seems.
And new kids (generation 10-20Y) repeat the exact same things as the kids before. It never ends. They were just born and have no clue but sure, they know everything, and have no hindsight bias at all.
And add to this clowns think "liberalism" actually means liberalism... And that's far from the stupidest thing they believe.
SP500. Dow to 2018 or 2008 highs?Drew these boxes a couple of months ago, roughly end November when i also posted the AEX graph..(See the other on my page)
Are we going to hit 2018 or 2008?
I wouldn't go against GoldGold was always a safe heaven and it will always stay that way! Here is the price, I think bulls are ready to go for, as there is a lot of uncertainty in the markets and easing monetary policy is no longer helping to boost markets. Waiting for ECB to lower interest rates
SILVER IS BEING ACCUMULATED!NEAR PICTURE-PERFECT WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION METHOD!
CORRESPONDING PRICE-VOLUME SPREADS!
DIPS ARE EXCELLENT ENTRIES FOR RETAIL INVESTORS AND TRADERS!
An important movement on Eur/UsdThe FOCM will begin Wednesday evening to make the market and investors understand the next moves for the short and medium term and the ECB will follow the next day. It is very likely that the euro will come out even more devalued at the end of these two days. As the European Central Bank will almost certainly show a weak economic and political scenario in the eurozone. Talking about new money injections and further postponements of a rate hike; while the FED should ensure another rate cut within the year, but then continue with its restrictive economic policy.
Because an important movement on Eur/Usd we open another long position from here to close by Wednesday evening to then close all the bullish positions and reposition ourselves short. The target is the 1.119 resistance.
The price of eur/usd is moving now!The price of eur/usd is moving now! It stopped below the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA20 daily. So it did not complete the movement that we expected this week. The analysts had expected a slight decline in the US dollar against the other majors because of the FED conference, the announcement of the pay slips of the non-agricultural sector and the level of unemployment.
The price is going to look for the static resistance set around 1.13 on this pair. For after the announcement of Trump on the new duties that will be imposed on China, the USD has strengthened again. We close at Break Even the bullish position that we had opened on EURUSD.
Technical point of view
The main trend remained unchanged. The final target is reachable within a few months among the static supports set at 1.10-1.08. There wasn't the rebound we expected, is now very likely that it will continue in this downtrend.From here (1.12) the price should start to go down and re-test the non-key static support at 1.112 within a few sessions. Once tested and broken to the downside there will be confirmation of a channeling on the part of this change projected to the downside. Here the price will bounce between the upper and lower side until it reaches the minimum of the period which will presumably be the area around 1.08.
Fundamental point of view
Even the fundamental scenario supports this view. The European Central Bank will continue to adopt an expansive policy, devaluing the Euro. The FED does not intend to take steps back by cutting rates and reviewing its monetary policy.
Trading ideas
The price of eur/usd is moving now and the possible TPs that we will set for this pair are: -the first one on the support of the 1.112.-the second on that of the 1,104.-the third on the final target at 1.08 and coinciding with 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. The analysis will be invalidated at the break of the resistance zone in the 1.146 area.
SELL NZDUSD: EYES ON CPI PRINT 23:45GMT - >0.5%=0.73; <0.4%=0.67Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely
- 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print.
- In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc).
- Their target is 2%, plus recently they announced that they would hold an "emergency"/ brought forward economic assessment (this lead to increased short bets on NZD$ at the back of last week (with NZD$ falling from 0.733 to 0.710) as many speculated that this meant the RBNZ has a heads up on the CPI print - e.g. its bad).
- See here for more details on NZD CPI and likelihood of a RBNZ OCR cut: www.bloomberg.com
- In simple terms if CPI fails to grow on the quarter for NZD e.g. 0.4% or has in fact fallen e.g. 0.3% or less - it is highly likely that the RBNZ will cut their OCR rate, in order to boost the CPI, which in turn will send NZD$ likely to a terminal rate of 0.67 (could be as much as 0.65), hence why last week we saw shorts increase on the pair as fast money tries to front run the market/ print.
Trading Strategy - Short NZD$ if CPI print misses or equals 0.4% - Stagnant/ low Inflation = RBNZ OCR cut likely:
1. Personally I dont have any interest in playing the long kiwi$ side e.g. if the print is higher as; 1) the RBNZ isnt happy with NZD trading so well (due to its deflationairy pressures), so action could come to reduce the NZD. 2) There is approximately 300-400pips of downside from here (at least) if a RBNZ OCR cut comes, whereas a no cut will likely see NZD$ Drift to 0.73 (maybe higher) so the risk:reward complex isn't as attractive to the upside IMO.
2. I will be waiting for the CPI print at 23:45GMT - if it is lower or equal to 0.4% I will Short NZDUSD 2lot@Market price; 0.68TP1 0.67TP2 0.65TP3 .
3. This trade is effectively betting on an RBNZ OCR rate cut; See attached posts for more details but this is already highly likely - and IMO is a definite if CPI is 0.4% (even more so if it is lower). Ideally id love to see 0.3%.
- The rate cut is ranked likely if CPI comes in at 0.4% or less because 1) Inflation is the RBNZ key target, so stagnation is what they have to avoid - a rate cut is the likely tool they'll use given they have one of the highest CB rates in the developed world; 2) the NZD dollar is very expensive across the board and the RBNZ have communicated their dismay regarding the strength of the currency (e.g. saying its very strong/ causing disinflationairy pressures) - so a OCR cut is also the likely response if the RBNZ wants to depreciate the NZD dollar against all of its trading partners; 3) An OCR cut will ease any of the Brexit Commonwealth Headwinds that may or may not drift into NZD's economy of negative impact - so as these 3 reasons are compounded I believe an OCR cut is made ever more highly (80-90%) likely thus bearish bets against NZDUSD make sense to me from here.
3. This CPI trade, if comes in on target (0.4% or less), is also good as LDN and NY session's will have 8-14 hours until they start - so you will be able to get ahead of the market/ mostof the largest FX flows. Though the Asia session will be in full swing so dont expect an easy ride - IMO fingers should be on the trigger to execute the short immediately if 0.4% or less is seen - NZDUSD will likely drop 200+pips in less than 30seconds if these figures are the case (if not even quicker).
Any questions or comments please ask - reading the "sell nzdusd @0.73 - tp 700pips" post ive attached helps support this short Kiwi$ trade
Pound Sterling and CABLE WEAKNESS is Signaling Monetary SurpriseRE: Global Macro Update Regarding European Union, #ECB, and UK
The way the #Euro is strengthening relative to the Pound, and particularly the way the #CABLE $GBPUSD cross-rate is falling out of bed is about to unleash shock-waves of negative #sentiment through the European Euro STOXX Equity Markets $FEZ. According to RunningAlpha.com Capital Markets Intelligence, this currency market action is portending a monetary surprise announcement; and any rate hike in Europe to stem a soon to be out of control falling CABLE would backfire, as it would just put dangerous downward pressure on UK's GDP and Britain's Industrial production, ultimately further weakening the #Pound #Sterling
Best regards,
Efrem -- Looking for better times ahead in the USA after this initial start of the year shock in USA equity markets abates in the not too distant future ( as indicated in prior memos at Running Alpha.com; as the situation rapidly deteriorates in Europe, capital will likely migrates out of Europe into the USA in earnest.
$GBPUSD MM SELL TRADESlightly Late Publication. Traded right into -OB and had good reaction. Expect Price to be Bearish throughout the WEEK.
Take Profit Target 1 @ 1.5380
Take Profit Target 2 @ 1.5200
Tage Profit Target 3 @ 1.5100
Watch this space as I will be posting more ideas to support this view and I will also be frequently small short entry opportunities and possible scalp trades whilst the bigger trade unfolds.
I provide signals service for free .
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My trade idea for USDCHFOvervalued Swiss franc?
On march 19th, 2015 SNB left benchmark interest rates @ -1.25% and -0.5% and -0.75% on deposits, to discourage holding investments in Swiss Franc. The bank believes that the Franc is overvalued and should continue to weaken overtime. The SNB revised down growth in the Swiss economy to 1% from 2%. They believe that a stronger Franc keeps inflation rates at its negative territory levels, which is not good for the economy. The SNB added that it will interfere in the FX market in case things go against the monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Policy?
The Fed is on its wheel to drive interest rates up by this year as Janet Yellen expects. I believe however that a rate rise this year might be too early, and could cause slow down the U.S. economy with fundamental figures showing hick ups that are blamed to be from bad weather conditions in January, the second quarter's data will suggest whether the blame on weather is valid or not. The first positive indication was the faster than expected US CPI. Even though I don't believe a raise in interest rates might happen this year, the overall trend believes it so we shall follow that or else we will get wiped out if we got stuck on our thoughts.
Divergence
This divergence in monetary policies suggest a great opportunity for us to profit on the long term by buying the USD and shorting the Swiss franc. Regardless of when the Fed will raise interest rates, it is closer to doing that than the SNB. If the Fed rises interest rates, investors will more likely shift from equity markets to money markets which will boost the USD.
Percentage Gains/ Losses
In 2014 the USD CHF offered investors an 11.4% return on Investment. If it was held for the whole year. In 2015 the pair fell by 4% until May. This fall could be a retracement for a higher bound.
Chart
- I personally like to trade price action, on medium term bias.
- The green lines suggest major resistance level, that if cleared could take price to test the succeeding levels.
- Red lines suggest major support levels.
- The trend filter is green and suggesting an uptrend.
-Prices tested the 200 moving average and pinned above it, without a daily candle close. This suggests a downside risk.
- The 0.95282 level is an area of major resistance, if cleared we could test the 0.97, 0.98, 0.99 and finally the 1.00 round level. This would however take place by Q3 of this year.
- Prices also cleared and closed above the 0.38 Fib level.
-I believe that the USD have gained strongly over the course of this week, and it should rest before it could pass the first green resistance line.
TRADE
Target Price: 0.94233
SL: 1.924
TP: I don't set Take profits, as I leave prices to move with the trend, profits are locked in when the upward retracement reaches the 38% fib level.
