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Monetarypolicy

USDARS: Update - 2 weeks to define the trendThe USDARS pair has an interesting setup, on one hand, the uptrend that started after monetary policy changed, has failed to reach the target on time, suggesting a selloff was possible (which did in fact materialize). I have reccomended my fellow countrymen to sell their dollars at the 15.8-15.4 mark, but it's time to pay attention to go long the dollar again, possibly, unless the downtrend is confirmed in 2 weeks or less. If you have peso savings, wait fo a good chance to convert them to dollars, if you're still in dollars and haven't sold, well, you should have paid more attention to my forecast #1, #2, don't panic, you might get a good opportunity to unload your dollars higher soon, or more reasons to hold them too. For people actually trading this pair electronically, I'd reccomend using ATR based stops, and/or no leverage, since volatility can be quite extreme. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
Trading the FOMC eventIn 8 hours we will witness the perhaps most anticipated news event in Forex of 2015 so far. The FED will communicate their rate decision, accompanied by a written statement, economic projections and a press conference. The Dollar is fundamentally the strongest currency due to the expectation of a rate hike this year. This sets it apart from currencies like the Euro with its quantitative easing program and the Yen with its quantitative and qualitative easing program. Increasing the rate would cut inflation and encourage investors to come in, thereby increasing demand for the Greenback. And when demand goes up, the price goes up. Quantitative easing on the other hand is basically printing money to spur the economy and inflation. It weakens the currency by increasing the availability of it, which drives the price down. This difference is referred to as monetary policy divergence between these central banks (FED vs ECB / BoJ). The Federal Open Market Committee looks at the job reports and inflation for their rate decision and if they would hike, it would be the first time in nearly a decade. I will not bore you with my personal prediction and tea leave reading on this, since I will not trade into the event anyway or hold any bias going in. As a matter of fact, I will close all open dollar positions beforehand to protect my trading capital . But the market players seem to expect a rate hike with a probability of about 30% and this is why volatility, spikes and zigzag movements can occur (not to mention some brokers charging crazy spreads during this event). Not only the rate itself is important, the statement and press conference are also key because the language a central bank uses (be it hawkish or dovish) influences the market and thereby the value of its currency. In case of a hike, the Greenback will strengthen instantly which could last for weeks and months. Buying it against currencies with a diverging monetary policy would then be a good idea if you find a technically viable set up (never without!). In case there is no hike, the language will take center stage and will determine whether the Dollar will weaken or strengthen. If the language would be dovish, we will see a sell off of the Greenback and the Fibre will rally as a consequence (its not called the anti-dollar index for nothing). I will enjoy FOMC in Forex chat ( the place to be for these high impact news events, exchanging ideas in real time as it happens! ), assess whether the Dollar will strengthen or weaken fundamentally and then look for technically viable setups in that fundamental direction to make pips off this event, once the spikes and zigzag movements have died down. I wish everybody good luck, trade safely, enjoy the event and lets make some pips!
by JazzForex
27
Trading FundamentalsI personally follow 4 central banks in detail: FED (USD), ECB (EUR), BoJ (JPY) and BoE (GBP). Knowing the monetary policies of these banks and how they differ, helps me in trading the following 6 major pairs: EU, GU, UJ, EJ, EG and GJ. I also follow three other central banks, be it more at a distance and with less detail: SNB, RBA and BoC. The banks to follow would normally depend on your trading portfolio. Central banks monitor the following five economic areas: I) Growth. Referring to whether an economy is expanding or contracting. On the economic calendar, there are several indicators on the health of the economy such as (not a complete list): -Business climate -Gross domestic product -Personal spending index -Retail sales -Consumer confidence / sentiment II) Inflation. Referring to how costs of goods and services develop. On the economic calendar, you will find: -Consumer price index -Producer price index -Retail price index -Core price index III) Employment. Referring to a countries labour force. On the economic calendar, you will find: -Unemployment change -Unemployment claims -Jobless claims -Non farm payroll IV) Production. Simply put, this refers to the things a country makes. On the economic calendar, you will find: -Factory orders -Core machinery orders -Building permits -Industrial production -Purchasing managers' index V) Geopolitical. Referring to anything non-economic that could cause risk in the market. Think of things like elections, natural disasters and wars. Central banks watch these areas and have specific targets for them (for instance inflation 2%, unemployment 8%). If a central bank is focussed on an indicator and sees it´s off target, there are several tools it can use to affect the indicator. A) Changing interest rates. Raising them cuts inflation and encourages investors to come in, thereby increasing demand for the national currency. For example the FED is believed to plan a rate hike this year that will further strengthen the USD. B) Setting price limits. The value of a currency impacts exports, so banks can make sure a pair will not drop below a certain amount and will spent millions buying foreign currency the weaken their own. For example the SNB until recently had a cap on EURCHF to artificially weaken their currency. We all know what happened when that cap was suddenly removed. C) Quantitative easing. This is basically printing money to spur the economy and inflation. It weakens the currency by increasing the availability of it. Good example is the recently announced powerful QE programme by the ECB, leading to selling pressure for the Euro. D) Using certain language. With press conferences, minutes of meetings, speeches or written statements a central bank can influence the market and thereby the value of its currency. Good examples are public statements by Draghi, president of the ECB. The EU pair can move hundreds of pips while he speaks. The key to trading fundamentals, is understanding what a central bank might do to move the value of an indicator towards its target. So when news comes out, you can asses if it will make the central bank more or less likely to use a certain tool and consequently if that news event weakens or strengthens the currency. For example: towards the end of 2014, the inflation in the Eurozone had fallen to very low values. The ECB had tried several things (like lowering the rates) to up the inflation (for which it has a target of 2%), but to no effect. The only thing left to do, was a QE programme. So with every new Eurozone cpi that came out lower than expected, the probability of a QE program increased, so the euro weakened instantly upon the release of that cpi data.
Education
by JazzForex
18
Higher rates thoughts push down EurStay short EurGbp or, if you prefear, long GBP! Since the macro economic data started to improve, the pressure on the exchange rate has became stronger. The beginning of rates normalization will make the UK's currency more expansive versus the Euromoney. At the same time, the chart seems to confirm the bearish view: It is unlikely (given also the macro-analysis) that the price will brake-up the current level @0.7895, looking also at the RSI oscillator (in 60 area), we have no signs of bullish trend beginnin. My view is that the price will continue its down trend, following the channel you can clearly see on the charts. Take care of 0.78 area that could be a strong point of inversion or continuation of the trend.
Short
by NicoS
EURUSD - Down BoyThe ECB monetary policy press conference is almost here. I believe that Draghi will use this opportunity to push the Euro lower. The inflation rate doesn't look good at all. I believe that he will say nothing in the first part of his speech, creating some volatility and drag the euro down in his second part (or so I hope :) ). From the technical perspective the price is now sitting at 1.3370, local support. A drop and close below this level would signal a drop (I believe that 1.33 can be a target). If Draghi will not take a dovish side, then we might see the Euro rally above the trend line of the current channel, targeting 1.3400.
by Razvan
13