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NFP, Trump's obsession, Morgan Stanley's recommendationsGetting ready for the NFP, Trump's obsession, recommendations of Morgan Stanley The financial markets are having a torrid week. Financial market participants are concerned about the appearance of a trend that the market currently is following. The concern is about the statistics based on the US labor market outcome, which in the future might provoke the US economic slowdown. Let's try to figure out what we should and should not be expected after the outcome will be published. It seems like nobody wants to undertake an in-depth analysis of the current state of the economy and labor market, a matter of reasonable inference from “how the forecast has been calculated”. The formula is, therefore, as follows: take the simple arithmetic average of the NFP index over the last couple of years, that is all. Such an approach practically guarantees that actual data will be different from forecast data. That in itself carries an opportunity for earnings. NFP report outcome creates adverse expectations. We believe that the 160K figure is too optimistic according to the ADP outcome. Since we are expecting poor forecast data, our trading recommendation is - sell the dollar. Moreover, the markets are concerned about possible US interventions against the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Recall, Trump supports the dollar devaluation idea. Last time the United States came out with interventions on the foreign exchange market was in 2011. Recently, USD to YEN rate forecast has been sharply lowered by Morgan Stanley’s analysts: from 108 to 102 at the end of this year and from 98 to 94 at the end of the next year. Motivation - a sharp decline in profitability differential: the profitability of American assets decreases faster than the profitability of European and Japanese. Recall that it is not the first time we recommend selling USDJPY. As for our other recommendations, we will continue to look for points for sales of the Russian ruble and oil. We are working with gold today with no clear without any preference for oscillator signals. In addition, we recommend paying attention to USDCAD. The fact is that today, statistics on the labor market of Canada will be published. So in the case of a double positive or double negative, the USDCAD may be subjected to strong pressure (ascending or descending). The best option for trading, in this case, is trading on the news. 1-2 minutes before the news releases, we set pending stop orders in both directions (buy and sell) with 30 pips at that time and wait for the news to come out. Almost certainly the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That will lead to the execution of one of the orders and will make it possible to earn quite quickly without any particular risks.
Short
by Trade24Fx
1
Mexican peso holiday & central banks are preparing for the worstThe week started quite well for the financial markets and with a huge relief for Mexico in particular. The point is that Trump decided not to impose 5% tariff on Mexican goods. The Mexican peso showed maximum growth over the past year. The Canadian dollar is below 1.33. Therefore a sharp decline in gold and other safe-haven assets against this background can be considered logical and logical. However, we would not advise relaxing. In fact, this is just one of the episodes. But in general, the picture continues to be rather precarious. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, heightened market optimism is a mistake of investors. Global economic data is likely to begin to deteriorate. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley recommends selling USDJPY with a target of 105. We will continue to look for points to buy gold and Japanese yen on the intraday basis. About the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, contributed a lot to yen sales in the foreign exchange market. He said that the Central Bank is ready to expand the list of monetary incentives, if it is necessary. Panicking and selling off the yen is not worth it yet. Well, the Bank of Japan is satisfied with the content of the monetary policy and the general state of the country's economy. Nevertheless, the general trend in the behavior of the leading central banks is pretty clear: all as one declare their readiness to act in response to trade war escalation. Recall, earlier "pigeon" comments were seen by the Fed and the ECB. And the Reserve Bank of Australia, so generally, lowered the rate last week. We would like to note rather weak data from the UK in particular GDP dropped by 0.4% m / m, in April ( the analysts had been expected a declining by 0.1% m / m).In addition, industrial production collapsed by by -2.7% m / m (experts predicted a decline of -1.0% m / m). It is not surprising that the pound was under downward pressure yesterday. Today we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which might finish the pound. Well, we will see. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, oil sales and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
LONG Options Trading: Morgan Stanley(MS) Buy Call $49 Exp: 7/19Understanding The trade: As an options trader my goal is to identify trend change and utilize a breakout strategy to leverage profit off of major trend changes with minimal risk. Even though this contract does not expire till 7/19 I will be looking to take profit by early july(see green box) as the rate of decay factor starts to come into play as the contract approaches expiry. This should correlate nicely with the Fib Retracement lvl of .786. If you have any questions please feel free to comment below and follow. Thank you and trade safe. Reasons For Trade: • Bounced off the Feb & Mar 19' low of 40~41 lvl • Broken downward channel (1D chart May 1st -June 3rd) • Broken RSI Channel • RSI Overbought > 30 Trade Parameters: • Broker: Robinhood • Cost For Entry: Free • Contracts: 20 • Entry Price: .10 • Risk: $200 • Reward: $600 • ROI: 300% • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3
NYSE:MSLong
by BradenH
Chinese white paper, India in cross-hairs & Bank of Australia China releases white paper, India in the crosshairs, Bank of Australia decision China has maintained a paused after the US showed trade aggression, apparently, hoping to reach an agreement. Apparently, hopes were not justified. As a result, the so-called “White Paper” was born. The document, which sets out the position of China in order to negotiations with the United States on trade and economic issues. The main message is the following: China does not want a trade war with the United States, but will not avoid it if it is needed. Also, China quite clearly set forth its terms for a deal with the United States: the USA cancelling all duties on goods imported from China. In addition, China is gradually starting to counterattack. For instance, the investigation began against FedEx Corp. the other day. Huawei accused FedEx of sending two parcels with important commercial documents to the United States. According to the results of the investigations, FedEx Corp. may fall into the list of unreliable companies. Meanwhile, Trump is planning to open another front of the trade war - the Indian one. From June 5, the States may deprive India of the status of a country with a developing economy, which will exclude the possibility of duty-free export to the United States of more than 2,000 Indian goods. In general, everything is bad. Morgan Stanley analysts have warned about this that further growth in trade tensions may lead to negative US economic growth as early as Q3 2019. Therefore, our recommendations are: buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen) and selling the dollar. From the events of today, it is worth noting the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, at which the Central Bank lowered the rate by 0.25%. This is definitely a bearish signal for the Australian dollar. Given the intensification of the trade war, while AUDUSD is below 0.70, we recommend looking for points for selling of AUDUSD on the intraday basis and the medium-term directions. Our positions for today: we are continuing to look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will buy the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
Short
by Trade24Fx
US GDP, analysts wait for recession and dollar collapseWe have already written that the inversion of the yield curve (when the interest rates on long-term debt instruments are lower than on short-term debt instruments) is considered by many analysts as a signal of the impending recession. The same situation happened in 2000 before the US stock market fall, as well as 2006-2007 on the eve of the global financial crisis. So, in 2019, we observed an inversion in March, (there was a lot of noise in this regard). And here again, in May, interest rates on short-term bonds exceeded the long-term ones. Analysts at Morgan Stanley in this regard burst out with another apocalyptic forecast, including both the risk of recession and the sharp drop in the US stock market. Based on current development around the trade war, this forecast does not seem so unreal. Especially when you consider that Citi's Global Economic uncertainty Index (measures whether data is better or worse than expected), has been in negative level for more than a year - this is the longest period of being below zero in the entire history. Yesterday's data on US GDP for the first quarter (2019) is saving the investors from panic. The data were revised downward, but only slightly (up to 3.1% from 3.2%). In addition, experts predicted exactly that indicator value. Therefore, the dollar was not sold yesterday, but it would be strange to buy it actively based on such data. Yesterday Trump was trying to calm the markets, stating that negotiations with China would succeed. But it seems like nobody believes him. Especially Europe, which is next after China. Also, China accused the United States of economic terrorism. Frankly, we are waiting for dollar sales this Friday. The dollar climbed very high and it hurts primarily the States. In addition, the markets are gradually adjusting to changing the Fed's monetary policy vector. The likelihood that the Central Bank will cut rates two or more times by the end of 2019 has risen above 40%, for the first time exceeding the expectations of one decline. So today we are looking for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Short
by Trade24Fx
DXY: just playing aroundHi Guys, a weaker DXY is what Donald Trump needs for implementing his policies. He had it weak for 2 years and it come back in 2018 half way. Here is a work I am following which follows this narrative. It made C right at at US Mid Term Elections. Right when Morgan Stanley called it a top on the 16th Nov. X to C corrected 50% of the move that DXY made after Trump was elected. Too perfect to be real. And this is why I don't trust it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:DXY
by cozzamara
Huge Sell off for Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley shows very little growth potential even at the market dip. While it still a conservative hold for potential long term positions, the amount of risk is outrageous right now. Even after hiring of a new Chief Investment Officer and upgraded management, it looks like a strong sell off is definitely a market recommendation for Morgan Stanley as it is likely to decrease at $35 which will then be a better buy price. As a wealth management institution, one of the biggest for financial management professionals, the steep recent decline lowers the demand curve for their stock.
NYSE:MSLong
by gamer456148
Morgan Stanley (MS) Long Position Take Profit Target 59.00Hey guys today i am publishing a Idea wich is not on Forex. I did some Research and we got some good news from Bloomberg aswell today. So here is the Idea. Morgan Stanley just overcam Goldman Sachs for the first time since 2006. We are facing a strong Uptrend. Our Rsi als shows some strong long signals. We will also face the 16 years downtrend line around 56.50 and we will see if we break it. We also expect a Target around 59.00 good luck trading guys
NYSE:MSLong
by qrDanielqr
Barclays PLC GETTING READY TO FILE BANKRUPTCY BY 2022From 2007 high it is going down trend. And now in near future it will re-test the 2009 low around $2.75.(see green line in the chart) If it fails to hold then BCS will go pennies on the dollar. Though you might have missed the maximum profit ratio by shorting but still you guys have some hope as it is only trading around $8 range and soon it will free fall. Good luck to you all. It will be a painful as those trickling down might take some time.
NYSE:BCSShort
by sum1
6