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90-91K Short setup updateMorning folks, So, today we need just 1H chart as not many events happened. In a recent two weeks people start making upside revisions on BTC price, based on recent JPow comments on QT contraction. We agree that it has some reasons and supportive to BTC, but they forget that GDP forecast was cut, while inflation increased, which points on stagflation signs. This is the reason why we do not want to overestimate the positive effect of QT contraction. We still think that BTC could show the pullback to ~70K area. Now we have three different patterns that point on this level. Since our last update we've got the flag consolidation, that suggests upside continuation. AB-CD based pattern also point on 90-91K area. So, we still keep our idea to consider shorts around 90-91K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
88K is not excluded but not granted as wellMorning folks, So, we set for 85K sell and it worked. Downside reaction happened, but still, we call you to move stops to breakeven for some case. The problem that we see is the market behavior. We see it not natural for normal bearish market. BTC stands stubbornly around K-resistance, not showing normal downside extension. Our scenario of downside continuation from ~85K area is not broken yet, it is valid, and maybe everything will happen as we've suggested initially. But we see the risk in the way of market behavior. It could lead to more extended upside bounce in the way of upside AB=CD pattern right to 88k resistance . It means that if you already have bearish positions - move stops to breakeven. If you don't - do not take the new once for awhile. Or, at least, you could take but not more than 25-30% of your normal lot. Our bearish scenario remains valid until market stands under 85.1K spike (because this is bearish reversal session on daily chart) and below 85.5K resistance in general. Upside breakout means an action to 88K. Since we do not have the breakout it, I mark our update as "bearish", but we warned you... Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Selling?Morning folks, So, Monday's plan has worked perfect, we're at 85K. Today we have to keep an eye on daily chart, where bearish grabber pattern might be formed and trigger downside action. In general upside action is rather slow, so bearish context stands intact. We see only one risk for it - non-market driving factors, such as a D. Trump flood on X. But, this is out of our control. That's why we keep everything as it is - 85K is considered for short entry. If we get daily bearish grabber also - all the better. Next target stands around 74K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Pullback to 85K for sellingMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan - nothing to change on major picture. We keep our bearish view on BTC and now consider 68-74K area as the next destination point. But this could take a few weeks. In fact, previous 68K top also will be a big test. Downside break will open road to 52-55K. While if BTC will be able to stay in 70-80K range, it will keep long term bullish context. It should be interesting... Meantime, BTC once again hits oversold areas as on weekly as on daily charts. As we promised - D. Trump verbal boost lasted just 2 days and was reversed down. We see some intention market manipulations from D. Trump administration but this is not the subject for this update. In short-term - 2-3 days BTC needs to relief oversold pressure, so minor bounce is quite possible. For example, based on "222" pattern on 1H chart we could see attempt to bounce up from 79K and up to 84-85K area. Those who wants to sell - that might be the chance. For now I mark this update as bullish, because of suggested bounce. But our longer term view remains bearish still.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Bearish until 98-100K Morning folks, So, Old Donny euphoria was over on the next day, as we've suggested. ETH was even worse than BTC... And we're skeptic on coming Crypto Summit tomorrow. What could happen in three days? A lot of speech and empty promises definitely will sound, but where the real deals? Recently. S. Lummis said that BTC Reserve issue is still under question and no guarantees that it will be formed. That's it... Nothing is prepared for BTC Reserve forming. Coming D. Trump talks could shake the market, but that will be only emotions. Speaking practically, we suggest that until BTC stands under 98-100K area - context remains bearish. We see a few patterns, and this butterfly one of them. If you want to go short - this is the point that you have to think about. Based on the butterfly, the risk is not too big. If even we will get "222" Sell - setup remains bearish, because upside AB=CD agrees with daily Fib resistance level. Only upside breakout of 98-99K will give BTC theoretical chances to start wobbling in 100-108K range. Thus, for now we're not ready to speak about BTC buying. Albeit you want to make a bet on Summing euphoria tomorrow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Verbal intervention was great but what's on the back?Morning folks, So, the pullback that we were waiting for is done. Although we thought that it will be driven by some natural forces and reasons. The way how it has happened and by what factors make us to be caution on its perspectives. Indeed, it was just verbal intervention from D. Trump. It had bad week - scandal in White House with Zelensky, stocks are falling, crypto are falling, inflation expectations are raising, March debt ceil and shutdown is almost here, EU "allies" do not want to work together... So, to say couple of words and pump the market is not a bad idea at all. But, what is on the back? Nothing. Special Committee will make Reserve report only by July. I'm sure on crypto Summit this week we also will hear a lot of bravery speeches, but this is just words. This is a reason why we do not want to buy BTC now and prefer to watch for reversal signs around our resistance 96-97K area. Sooner or later but fundamentals should return control over the market. I do not have yet the specific picture but, since we have strong upside momentum - it should fade and appearing, say H&S or butterfly pattern, together with completion upside XOP target seems as great combination. Once this patterns will be formed, we could try to use it for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
70K doesn't look impossible nowMorning folks, So, our trading plan worked just great - DRPO on weekly in fact hit 81-82K, so it's minimal target is done. In fact, BTC, as a Gold now are victims of massive sell-off on stock market. Investors meet margin calls and urgently need cash to fill it back to initial level. That's why they sell everything that they could to get the money. While this process will be underway - BTC remains under pressure. Not occasionally as insiders as Buffett were sitting on cash bags. Today BTC is oversold. So we do not consider any new shorts and prefer to get the rally to sell into. Supposedly 92.50-92.85 resistance looks interesting for this. As market probably will close below Dec lows, this is bad for long-term picture and former 70K top might be re-tested in perspective of a few weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2
Pain or gainMorning folks, So, everything goes accurately with the plan - our 1H H&S is ready to start. Even small "222" Buy already has been formed on the bottom. So, if you would like to buy - this is the point where you have to decide. Upside target is 100.5-101.2K. At the same time - don't forget that the H&S has to be considered in context of our big bearish weekly DRPO Sell pattern. If H&S will be completed at 101K - we consider it as a chance to get the short position at better price. Conversely, if BTC starts dropping and H&S start failing. It could mean that downside action starts immediately. Other words speaking, if BTC will show upside action at all - it has to start it right now. Otherwise, be prepared for collapse. I mark this setup as a bullish, because of H&S. But in general we have mid term bearish view. H&S is just a retracement step before downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Another attempt for the 101-102K bounceMorning folks, So market stands in the narrow range for the 3rd week already and not leaving hopes to show the bounce up to 101-102K area. Last attempt (in the way of cup pattern that we've discussed last time) has failed. We don't care about it because mostly stay focused on weekly bearish DRPO pattern. Thus, any bounce here we consider first as a chance to Sell. And only second as a possible upside continuation. For now BTC is trying to make an another attempt and form reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart. So target remains the same 101-102K. We have no intention to go long right now. But, if you trade intraday or just search chances to buy - maybe be this setup might be useful to you. Supposedly 96K is an area where decision on position taking has to be made. I keep the "bearish" mark for this setup. But, as now as last time - the bounce to 101-102K area are not excluded.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Bearish context holds. Pullback to 101-102KMorning folks, A recent few sessions have rather narrow range, so we have little changes since our last discussion. We have confirmed DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart, so we keep bearish general view on BTC, with potential downside target around 80-81K. This also makes us to not consider any long positions. If even upside bounce will happen - we try to use this rally for short entry later. Still for intraday traders, if you want to buy BTC, here is some thoughts. First is, and actually why we stay away from longs for now - take a look, after impressive jump BTC stands too long in sideways action. This is not good for bullish scenario. Now it seems that something like "Cup" or reverse H&S pattern is still forming here. So if you finally will decide to buy - currently is the point where you have to make a decision on entry. Because BTC has to start upside action right now, right from this point or it will not start it at all and drop. We suggest that 101-102K is an area where it would be better to out. I mark this update as bearish in a row with our major view, but as we've said 101-102 pullback is not excluded.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
No longs by far. 90-92K stands in focusMorning folks, Last time we were speaking about possible upside bounce to ~102.5K area. But BTC has failed three attempts to move out from support level where it stands. Despite that upside momentum was not bad. With the recent high CPI on the table and weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern on the back, we suggest that downside action could start at any time. First target will be ~90-92K area just because this is daily oversold. Weekly pattern suggest target around 80-81K. By this reason we do not consider any new intraday longs by far. Besides, on daily chart today we could get bearish grabber that supports adea of 90-92K lows level.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Tricks around 102.4K targetMorning folks, So, our weekly bearish DRPO "Sell" pattern has been confirmed. It means that until market either complete its 81K target or remains under 102.5K its invalidation point - this pattern presents the risk for the bulls. With all this stuff on the table we make two decisions. First is - we cut potential upside target down to 102.4K area by two reasons. First - this is 0.618 expansion and it agrees with major 5/8 resistance level. Second - this is invalidation point of weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern. So, conclusion is follows. For long-term traders we suggest to not consider any new long positions until DRPO is valid. For short entry with DRPO - keep an eye on 102.5K area. For intraday traders we suggest that long position is still acceptable but with the new 102.4K target and very tight stop - just under 94K lows. Market has to start upside action now. If it will not happen, then it will not happen at all and weekly DRPO will start working. I mark this setup as "Bullish" because of 102.4 target. But, in general we have bearish view until DRPO stands in place.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
107.60KMorning folks, So, BTC has shown the pullback that we've discussed, but it was even stronger. Thus, we had have to postpone our plans for short entry. Besides, now situation stands so that our weekly pattern (DRPO "Sell") might not be confirmed this week. To keep it simple - no new shorts by far. For now we focus only on intraday setups. For example, on 4H chart. If we could to use 8H or 10H chart instead, then we could see nice big bullish engulfing pattern. As usual it has AB=CD upside target, which is around 107.5K for now. "C" point lows seems to be a vital area for this setup, just because this is 5/8 support and breakout of 95K level will change everything here. So, decision on entry has to be made fast, while price is not too far from vital area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 98.2K resistance for short entryMorning folks, So, this week / our DRPO "Sell" pattern is one step closer to confirmation and has a good chances to start working this week. Meantime, due to weekend collapse BTC now is overextended. The problem is not about BTC itself but in jump of the USD, triggered by Donny's tariffs. We suggest to get technical rally, back to ~98.2K resistance area and consider short entry there if DRPO still will be OK. If DRPO will be confirmed this week, its target stands around 81K support area. So, it is worthy to pay attention to...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Postpone shorts for awhileMorning folks, So, the pullback that we've discussed last time is done and even slightly more extended, in a way of AB=CD . By our previous plan, somewhere around we should start thinking about the short entry. So, is it time? We think it is not quite yet. And the reason stands with the pattern that now is forming on weekly chart - bullish grabber. This pattern suggests the challenge of the top again in any way. Does it mean that the bearish scenario, especially our DRPO "Sell" pattern has totally failed. Not quite. The test of the top might be fast, just in a way of spike. In this case bearish setup will stand. But this will be later. For now - we consider no shorts, at least on daily/weekly charts. On intraday charts, since we have "222" Sell, right, scalp traders could consider shorts for a few hours with very close target - around 103K. But this is not our primary scenario so far. So, to be absolutely sure with this, let's wait for weekly close price to understand do we really get the grabber on weekly TF or not...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bearish adventure startsMorning folks, So, here we go... downside action starts as we've discussed last time. On weekly chart we still wait for confirmation in a way of price close below 3x3 DMA. While on a daily one price hits oversold level. Those who know about this - we have DiNapoli bullish "Stretch" pattern for now, suggesting the pullback. That's why we do not consider immediate short entry. Our 4H Diamond has worked just perfect. So everything goes absolutely fine. For now we consider no longs on daily/weekly basis and waiting for the bounce, supposedly to ~102.20K area. Scalp traders on 1H TF and below could consider scalp long position with the same target. I mark this setup as bullish because of this pullback. But, in general we keep bearish view...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3
Downside potential is 81KMorning folks, So, our bearish ideas seem to be correct last time... Now we think that weekly TF is most perspective for BTC, because here we could get DiNapoli DRPO "Sell". First signs are already here, but for final confirmation we need close below MA line. Meantime, on intraday charts, BTC is forming the Diamond consolidation , and on the same weekly one we have "Shooting star" on top. So, if you would like to go short earlier, you could use both pattern with the stops against the recent top. Conservative traders could wait for confirmation of the pattern still. We consider no longs by far.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Hi chances on reversalMorning folks, So, by introducing $Trump Token, old Donny has put the start of global US Dollar devaluation. And Melania probably will add today... All our short-term targets are done - weekly grabbers and H&S failure has worked fine, BTC has challenged the top of 108K. We consider this action as hype and emotional. Mostly due euphoria around D. Trump inauguration. Due to oversold on Monthly and Daily time frames, chances on reversal are significant. So we intend to watch for DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart. Still, Donny could tell us a lot today, and madness could continue a little bit. We do not exclude that BTC could try to reach nearest upside extension around 113.5K before reversal starts. We do not call right now for taking short positions, let's see what will be on Thu, prefer to wait for patterns and signs for reversal first. But we call to consider long positions close or, at least tight stops around them. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Back to 108K ?Welcome back folks, Only on Thu we talked about bearish scenario and 85K target and now we have to turn everything from top to bottom. Not occasionally on Thu we warned about weekly bullish grabber pattern and called to not take any fresh shorts, but keep existed ones. What's now? Now our H&S stands in a process of failure, which means price has good chances to go back to 108K top, is failure will be confirmed. Besides, on weekly chart we could get 2nd grabber in a row if BTC will close slightly higher. Price was not able to break the neck line, and just got the stops there. It means that currently we do not consider any shorts. For long entry we could use intraday Fib levels. First one is 96.35K And see what will happen next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
On the way to 85.5KMorning folks, So, both our entries worked fine - as on the top of the right arm as on recent pullback to 96k area. Now there are two moments that you have to know. First is, the risk factor. It comes from weekly bullish grabber pattern , suggesting upside jump above 108K top. But the problem with it is unclear reasons for this jump. Because fundamental picture for now doesn't support any upside action on BTC. First is, dollar and yields are going higher. Second and what is even more important - the new debt ceil act is not taken yet. We have only temporal act on postponing of this decision. It means that until it will be taken, the US Treasury has to save. And they do - spending cash from their Fed deposit. It means that liquidity for some time will remain narrow, which is bad for BTC and Stock market performance. Since both our entries are safe already and protected with breakeven stops, we could relax a bit and keep our eyes on 85.5K downside H&S target. If you still would like to go short- you should understand the risk that you take, because your stop now will be above 96K area. And with potential weekly bullish pattern on the back. Those who have an opposite view on situation and want to buy instead - the weekly pattern is the great one that you could try to use. If price will drop under 91K area, it will mean the failure of this idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Missed 101.5K sell? Don't worryMorning folks, So, our H&S has started perfect. Right from the area that we've discussed last time - Agreement of Fib resistance and our XOP target on 4H chart, where the top of right arm should be formed. Obviously now we consider no longs by far. H&S target stands around 85.5K - in the middle of wide K-support area of 82-89K. If you missed entry around 101K, we could get 2nd chance around 96-96.5K, but do not expect too extended pullback. Price is at the slope of the shoulder, naturally this is not the moment for deep upside pullbacks. I would say that deep retracement, back to 100K would be unwelcome sign, suggesting weakness of the bears.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten