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BUY!Morning folks, Recent collapse has let BTC to complete extended downside targets, including weekly XOP and 5/8 Fib support area around 30K. The volatility breakout pattern finally has happened, and it means that from technical point of view, market is ready for accumulation - buying of BTC for long-term perspective. Theoretically it makes no sense trying to catch slightly better levels, and area of 35-40K looks fine enough to gradually buy BTC. Still if we get lucky, we could get "222" Buy pattern on 1H chart and chance to step in around 33-35K area. But this is only half of the story. Second half is not as pleasant. Just think about why China bans using of crypto as payment tool. How institutional investors react on this step and how it could impact on BTC performance in long-term. Current rally totally was fueled by institutional investors' money. With 50% collapse no one portfolio manager will include BTC in portfolio. If China did it - any other country could do this as well. BTC independence has become a myth as it has become strongly depended on institutional investors money and government decisions... I suspect that if recovery starts - it might be very slow.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for reversal patternsMorning folks, So, our setup is done well, price hits 42K area, completing extended AB=CD pattern on daily chart. Since 41-43K area is strong weekly support, and market stands oversold as on weekly as on daily - we expect solid bounce up from here to 55K area in perspective of 1-2 months. Meantime, to take the position we have two ways. First is - just take it with stops below 40K is for those who have enough funds to let market breath and place extended stop. For others - it would be better to wait for clear bullish reversal pattern. We suggest that it should be extended because this setup is on daily/weekly time frame. Currently we have butterfly "Buy", and potentially it could become a part of larger reverse H&S pattern. May be some other patterns could be formed. Right now it is difficult to say as price just has hit 42K area and response is just started. Price action around 40-43K might be wobble, it is long-term support and it is more like a range rather than precise level. So, don't be surprised if price shows wide fluctuation around it before upward reaction starts. It could last as long as few weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
hopefully we still get 42KMorning folks, Although in recent 2 weeks we have discussed minor detail of our trading plan - the way of upside retracement that BTC could form, our major scenario is downside AB-CD pattern. Compounded retracement that we've discussed stands in progress right now. Although BTC has dropped to 46K - it has not reached 42K area because of weekly and daily oversold. So it needs to take a breath before continuation. BTC looks heavy in recent time, lagging behind ETH and even some altcoins. It means that another drop to 42K easily could happen. Besides, we have few bearish patterns on higher time frame that suggest deeper retracement is possible, even below 42K area in long term. In fact, BTC fails the test by rising inflationary fears, triggered by recent Consumer sending report. As we stand at the eve of Fed policy changes - they promise nothing good to the crypto currencies, based on recent reaction. Thus, we expect that market takes some breath to 53.5K maybe and then make another attempt to drop. Hopefully we will get it around 42K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
minor updateGreetings everybody, Recent price action doesn't change the core as we're still watching for compounded downside action. By our view it should be at least to 42-45K area. The major concern in short-term is from what level BTC starts dropping. For the truth's sake - it absolutely doesn't matter for the bulls who intends to buy BTC at 42K area. But for intraday traders it might be important. What do we have right now... Our perfect scenario suggests that downside reversal should start a bit later, from 63-64K area. For us this is perfect shape just because it is better fits to longer-term technical picture. But, chances that BTC starts dropping immediately are above zero as well. First of all, we do not like no reaction on recent NFP report while other markets - EUR, Gold, ETH have used it to jump. This is bearish sign. On 4H chart we have rising wedge and divergence inside that should be treated as some points in favor of the bears as well. In general divergence among major cryptos are bad sign. So, as you could see - current situation doesn't change the core, but downside reversal might happen earlier. Thus, if you intend to go short, maybe it makes sense for gradual entry on different levels. Most conservative approach is just to follow our initial suggestion and daily AB-CD pattern target around 63.5K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Watching for 63-64K area with vital level of 53KGreetings everybody, Although upward action stands gradual (which is good for our longer-term trading plan), we do not see any reasons to change scenario by far, as BTC keeps all upside patterns valid. Thus, we still keep an eye on 63-64K target with 53K level in mind as the vital one. Downside drop below 53K means that 2nd downside leg starts earlier than we suggested. But currently - everything stands in order. The pattern that I've drawn as AB=CD you could also represent as H&S from our previous update. They are in fact the same, its just a question of representation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Minor re-shaping of the patternMorning folks, So, today we do not need to do many things - just re-shape the pattern a bit, as we've got the right arm's bottom, and now we could set the potential target of this H&S pattern. Supposedly, we watch for 2nd leg of downside retracement starting point around $61.75K. It means that downside target also will be higher - not at 42 but around $44K. There are another nuances exist around this pattern, you could watch them in the video on FPA site.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
The core is the same Morning folks, Although market has changed the shape of upward bounce slightly - it doesn't change the overall trading plan and still makes us to wait for deeper retracement. We believe that we should get chance to buy the coin around 42-43K area. Still, let's update our view on very short-term scenario. As on altcoins, here, on BTC we see that market is forming H&S shape. this is just a goldmine of information. First is - scalp traders could consider short entry to 50K target, where the right arm's bottom should be formed. Next is attempt to buy around the same 50K area with potential 60K level. Then, potentially Sell around 60K with 42-43 target. But, what is primary for us - H&S as indicator. On daily chart we ignore all these stuff with intraday buying/selling and focus mostly on 42-43K area. Thus, the right arm's bottom will tell us - whether BTC shows bounce to 60K or start dropping immediately, if 50K lows fails. As you could see - the major points of our plan is the same, but tactical issues, such as the shape of upward BC leg has changed slightly...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 42-43K areaGood morning folks, As we've suggested - retracement should be compounded and now we have clear downside AB-CD pattern with 44K target. In general overall situation is simple - it is too early to buy, as we're focused on weekly strong support of 42-43K area, but it is late to sell as market already stands at oversold. Currently market is taking the breath as it can't go down immediately. Here we see pennant consolidation, that is potentially continuation pattern. 1H chart also has some signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Thus, we suggest no shorts and prepare to buy around 42-44K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Chances to re-test 59K are still holdMorning folks, Treat this update as intraday details for our major trading plan that we've prepared on Monday (take a look at previous idea). Generally speaking - we keep it intact. Now we do not see any reasons to change it or signs that it is failing. BTC keeps chances as to re-test 59K area as to show deeper retracement to 40-42K. Thus, you have few trading options. First is conservative approach - do nothing and wait for 40K major support. Second - you could split position and try to take 1/3 around current support area, as BTC still has chances to reach 58-59K level. Here we have "222" Buy or Double Bottom as you like it more, and equal lows, which are also the bullish sign. If bounce up happens - move stops to break even, if not - take 2/3 bulk around 40K area. Theoretically it is not forbidden also to consider short position around 58-59K but this strategy has no relation to our trading plan and we do not consider it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
to 58K first and to 44K secondMorning folks, So, the bearish setup that was ripen through the previous two weeks has been triggered. Our 59K level has worked perfect and its breakout has put the background for stronger sell -off. To keep it simple, I try to show our trading plan on the chart. First, we expect upside pullback and re-testing of broken wedge and our 58-59K area. But, by our view downside action should be compounded, and have two legs. Thus, next stage is downside continuation to strong 42-42K area that should be perfect for taking long position. This is our major trading setup. As a secondary trade it is possible to consider short position from 58-59K with 42-44K target and even smaller one, for intraday traders - upward action to 58-59K. This is preliminary setups. Bearish position should be confirmed by patterns around 58K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Keep an eye on 59K areaMorning everybody, So, our 65K target is hit accurately. And, again the question - what to do next. Market now stands in reasonable retracement, which is the reaction on completed target. Currently BTC has external support because of weak short-term context on US Dollar and US Interest rates. This makes us think that there could be another upside challenge to 68-71K. But just to not rely on ideas purely, technically we have to keep an eye on 59K level. This is very strong support and could be used twofold. First is - as an area for long entry with stops above it. It provides outstanding risk/reward ratio, if price keep going to 68-71K target. Second - it is an indicator. BTC has to stay above it to keep bullish context. If level will be broken - this will be clear sign that short-term bullish context is over and we should be prepared for deeper retracement. Still, with pictures on DXY, 10 year yield, Gold etc., it seems that chances to hit 68K are not as bad.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
65?Morning folks, So, BTC accurately follows our short-term trading plan. Those who bought around 55K should be absolutely happy - market perfectly has completed the right arm of our H&S pattern, by accurate AB-CD retracement. So, as bullish context stands in progress and price was able to stay above our 55K signal area - no shorts by far. It is nothing to do for the bears. If you've missed entry around 55K - you could consider using Stop "Buy" order around top of the "A" point, slightly before it. And target - upside H&S AB=CD to 65K. This is the first one, and then we will see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
55K is a red lineMorning folks, So, the 1st part of our trading plan is done - market has completed AB=CD retracement and formed the right arm of H&S pattern (see previous update). Now BTC stands at crucial for short-term performance area. In fact, if BTC is still bullish - it has to go up right from here. If it doesn't do this - then it is not bullish and moderate downside retracement on daily chart starts. I've explained everything in previous update. For trading purposes it means that bulls have to make decision on long entry, while bears could keep an eye on 55K area as indicator. In a case of downside breakout, somewhere around 52K area - half way to 50K lows, it is possible to make decision on short entry. Additionally it is possible to use Stop "Sell" orders around 50K lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2nd stage - 55-56K levelMorning everybody, We follow the same trading plan that we've discussed last week. As you could see on 4H chart - our H&S now is taking more evident shape. Pattern could be used twofold. First is as trading setup, second - as indicator. As a trading setup it is for those who intend to buy BTC and trade on intraday charts. Here it provides classic rules - long position could be considered around right arm's bottom, for instance - when AB-CD pattern is completed. But in general, 55-56K area is the one where upside action could start, if BTC is bullish indeed. Second - 55K area is an indicator. While price stands above it - everything is good. But in a case of downside breakout H&S fails, which, in turn means drop below the head, which in turn means downside breakout of daily wage pattern and - starting of stronger downside retracement. So, downside breakout of 55K could be treated as bearish signal for those who intend to sell BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
61K then 55-56K and up to 67-70$Morning folks, So, I hope you've enjoyed the H&S pattern that we've discussed last time. Now it is a question, what to do next... First is, within few hours BTC has to complete H&S target around 61000-61050. Then odds suggest some downside reaction on this target, as overall upside action stands gradual, and not too fast. Hopefully, the pullback will be somewhere to 55-56K area. Although bearish signs are forming on daily chart, such as wedge pattern and MACD divergence - the context is not ready yet, and we suppose, that BTC has the chance to make an effort and form another swing up first. Supposedly, it will be to 67-70K area. Yes - this is actually, another larger reverse H&S at the top... Plan your trades accordingly. In general - no shorts by far. For long entry we suggest Limit order around 56K (can't say definitely yet as retracement is not started) and/or sleeping Stop Buy around the top additionally, or if no H&S will be formed and BTC keep going higher. All these stuff will be crushed if BTC drops below 55K and keep going to the 50K lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
H&S as indicatorMorning folks, So, the bounce that we've discussed from 50-51K area has happened, and now we have the next problem - up or down? On daily chart we have bearish hints, such as wedge consolidation and MACD divergence, but price action is too slow and gradual to treat it as reversal already. It means that BTC could make another swing up inside the daily wedge. And to control the execution of this scenario and trading planning, we intend to use 1H reverse H&S pattern. Logic is simple here - if BTC holds the pattern and 53K potential lows in particular, then indeed another upside swing should happen, somewhere to 60K area, at least. Conversely, drop below 53K lows of right arm, moving back to 50 means that we probably are going to next 46K target that we have on 4H chart. Scalp traders could use H&S for trading, as usual. Just avoid vertical drop to 53K. In this case do not take any longs, we need gradual action down, no collapses. H&S failure means bearish setup and downside continuation. That's the idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Context has turned bearishMorning folks, Changings in fundamental background has triggered run-to-safety and all dollar rivals were pushed lower, including BTC. We do not expect significant drop till the end of the week, as BTC stands oversold, but in perspective of 1-2 weeks - it might go lower. This is the reason why we're mostly focused only on 46K level as next area where we could consider long entry. Short positions are not welcome as well, because of daily oversold level. Currently only very short-term, scalp setups exists. Thus, intraday traders could consider support levels, where market stands right now and next one around 50K where minor bounce could happen. Thus - no longs for daily traders, no shorts, scalp longs from support areas are possible on 1H and below time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63.5K?Morning folks, Right before the Fed we've talked about bullish context and warned to not go short by far as sentiment stands bullish on the market. Recent jump based on our hourly H&S pattern was nice, but don't be upset if you have missed it. Because it was just a beginning, the first part of potential upside action. Since we have next monthly target around 63.5 K and multiple bullish grabbers on daily chart, suggesting the new top - these two features could be perfectly finished by nicely looking butterfly pattern with 64K target. Thus - still no shorts until 53K daily lows are valid, long entry is possible with the stops below these lows, i.e. 53K and target around 63.5-64K. As BTC already is done perfect 5/8 retracement inside the butterfly and formed nicely looking "222" Buy on 1H chart as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No shorts until 53K breakoutMorning folks, Although downside action has happened - but in a bit different manner. We've suggested that as interest rates as BTC shows upside spike before major downside reaction. Now everything turns from top to bottom. Downside reaction has happened before Fed, but not as a result of it. Now, the butterfly that we've discussed has reached its minimum target - 3/8 retracement. Instead of that, we've got bullish grabber on daily chart, that theoretically suggests action to new top and it takes the shape of reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart. In current circumstances our options are - do nothing and wait for Fed results, trying to go long around 54.7K with stops below recent lows of 53K. For bears - use Stop "Sell" order below 52.5K in a case of downside breakout and erasing of the bullish scenario. Choose what you like more. Actually both scenarios of entry could be combined, because Stop "Sell" order triggers only when bullish scenario is destroyed. Extreme volatility could bring whipsaw action, but hardly we could do something with this now, around Fed statement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
62.5K now stands in focusGreetings everybody, So it seems it was worthy of our efforts that we've decided to keep an eye on H&S pattern on 1H chart before consider any short-positions. As H&S has not been formed - it saved a lot of money. Now situation is similar but a bit more tricky. Markets across the board prepare background for retracement - gold, EUR at long-term supports and oversold, 3-Drive "Sell" pattern on 10-year interest rates and here we have potential Butterfly "Sell" around 62.5K. This butterfly actually, is not something new, but shift of previously discussed "222" Sell pattern. As we come closer to Fed meeting on Tue-Wed, it probably becomes the event that could trigger this mess, if JP tells something about interest rates and shows concern of its rising. Thus, it seems that currently it is not good point to go long immediately, until you want to pass through "doom&gloom" of Fed meeting. For short entry we suggest to hold the same strategy - bearish patterns are great, but before taking position, it would be better to get another one on hourly chart right at the top of 62.5K. It could minimize potential loss and provide perfect entry point for position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
WE need more confirmation for short entryMorning guys, Recently was a bit tricky situation when market has not confirmed potentially bearish setup that we've discussed last time. Still, as we've said before, 2nd chance to reverse exists around 56K area, as this is the objective point of 4H AB-CD pattern. As a result we have healthy "222" Sell on 4H time frame. Still, it is a bit scary to sell when upside tendency stands strong enough. It might happen, that recent stop is just reaction on daily overbought that market hits yesterday. When we have uncertainty about overall situation - we need more confirmation for short entry and preferably with less risk. For this purpose, I suppose, we could consider 1H H&S pattern, that provides as confirmation as clear points where to enter (top of the right arm) and where to hide the stop (above the head). Once it will be formed - chances for downside action increases. No H&S - no shorts, this is obvious.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Downside setup is still validMorning folks, Today we focus on daily chart, as it shows the major things that let us to control our setup. Intraday chart has more details and tricky moments, but all of them lead to the daily picture. Currently, everything depends on today's top. Potentially we could get bearish continuation pattern, if price close as it stands right now or lower. In this case we could consider short entry with stops above the top and target around $38-40K area. Butterfly could finalize downside action. Alternatively, in the case of upward action above this top - price should reach at least 55-56K level. Continuation above the top is also possible but with less degree.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Minor adjustment to the planMorning folks, Actually, we keep everything the same, but would like to make minor adjustments, because now we have the shape of BC upside leg. Although price hits 5/8 Fib resistance already, the downside action could start from a bit higher level - 55K, as BC leg is upside ab-cd pattern as well, with 55K target. Correspondingly - 52-55K is an area that we also have to keep an eye on, because in case of upside breakout and moving back to the top, it could mean that upside tendency is continuing and bearish weekly pattern on a way to failure. If you intend to trade it short - initial stop has to be counted on possibility of reaching 55K level, despite where you take the position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1