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Fed adjustmentMorning guys, On the background of recent news from the Fed where they promised unlimited liquidity injections - intraday chart shape has changed slightly. Although we do not see any reasons yet to review long-term scenario, as we still think that action to 3.3 level is still possible, we need to adjust short-term shape. On a background of Fed news, chances on 2-leg upside retracement increases. It means that downside action could start not from here, but from next, 8.0K resistance level. Thus, we cancel right now our 5-5.2$ pattern that we've discussed yesterday and consider upside AB-CD 1.618 target around 7873 + butterfly 1.618 target that stands in the same area. Both targets agrees with daily resistance. For the bears nothing has changed - they still need to consider 8.0K level for short entry, but the chance to reach this level now is better. For the bulls it is difficult situation, because they have to decide where to place stop order. Risk/reward will be slightly better than 1:1, wherever you place it. Thus, despite expectation of upside action -it is not simple to find good point where to enter the market. Finally, keep an eye on 7K level. Our drawing here looks cool - butterfly and other stuff, but price has to break 7K to make it real. Otherwise, it could be "222" Sell instead and price could start dropping again.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
50-5.2K area to keep an eye onMorning folks, Today we see signs of hash rate drop, which means that miners join capitulation. This fact brings nothing good to bulls. In longer-term we keep on the table our 3.3K target. Now we have to watch closely 5.0-5.2K area, as it is very important in short-term perspective. In fact, if you have bullish view, this is the only chance that you have. It should be relatively safe to buy from there, although target could be very small. Here is scenarios that we have: 1. If you have bearish position - do nothing. Move stops to breakeven and watch the movie. 2. If you're bearish but you do not have the position - do nothing. Wait either for 5.0 level breakout or upside daily AB=CD retracement to 8.0K area - major 5/8 Fib resistance; 3. If you're bullish - watch for 5.0-5.2K area to buy. Once position is taken - move stops to breakeven as soon as possible, at first bounce up. Because currently is difficult to predict the value of pullback. It might be technical, very small, or, BTC could go to 8.0K area to complete daily AB=CD pattern. Good luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Watching for bearish reversalMorning guys, Our "222" Sell setup hits the target. Market stands at weekly K-resistance and now we're watching for finalization upward action by butterfly "Sell pattern around 6.9K. If you want to buy - it would be better to wait downside pullback out from this area. For bears - it should be relatively safe to go short from this level. At first touch we should get technical response, at least, that should give us chance to move stops to breakeven. Potentially, as we suggest - market could continue downside action in way of butterfly "Buy" pattern on daily chart. Pace probably will be slow, we we keep our 3.3K target still...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
6.4 and downMorning guys, Our longer term view is the same, we expect at least 3.3K level within 1-2 weeks. BTC drops not because of inner problems but because of run-in-cash, the same reason why gold is dropping too. As market stands at oversold, minor pullback is still possible. It could be somewhere to 6.4 area. Here we have previous lows (our former Head's bottom) and now it is also daily K-resistance area. We do not sure that it definitely will happen, but we do not exclude this, if there will be 1-2 relatively calm sessions. Then downside action could continue. Now we call to ignore any bullish setups and better follow to major tendency, getting good entry points to sell
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
$3.3KMorning guys, This is what we call as "Black Friday".... Yes, we have bearish view and yet we intend to consider how market response on 7.2K area and whether reverse H&S on daily will fail or not - answer has come fast, market collapsed. It is no needed to talk a lot here. Just two moments. First is - next target 3.3K. There we will consider how market challenges all-time lows. Ultimately, if we will get butterfly "Buy" here - it could be as low as just 276 bucks per coin. Second moment - take a look that drop stands on a background of rising hash rate. This is not Blockchain and BTC driving factor, guys, This is global cash flows stand beyond recent collapse.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Temporal pause at $7.2KMorning folks, Thus, our target has been hit again. I mean daily AB=CD at 7.2$. At the same time we can't please bulls because chances on collapse significantly increased. There is clear downside acceleration on CD leg of the pattern, weekly trend has turned bearish and chart shows 3 weeks with tail close. It means, that here we could get minor bounce from 7 190-7200 area by puny butterfly pattern. But we suggest that this will be temporal pause in downside action. As we've said earlier, 7.2 is vital area for BTC because it is forming bullish reversal pattern (our H&S), that is ready to fail. Failure will lead to awful consequences as we will set potential targets that stand far below the current level. Our conclusion - no strategic buy of BTC by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
$7.2K to keep an eye on Morning guys, How do you like Crude oil, performance? ;) On BTC we keep our scenario with H&S pattern and price has reached our first approximation - support of 8K area. But the way how it was reached makes us think on minor continuation before potential reversal could start. Now we do not see any drop in hash rate, which means that H&S still could work. The only moment that makes us to see for deeper level is fast drop. This is sign of weakness for H&S pattern. On daily, as you can see, we have AB=CD on a right arm (red lines) and CD leg shows fast acceleration. At the same time, the bottom of left arm is blur and it stands in range of 7.2-8+ area. Thus, completion of AB-CD at 7.2$ will not break H&S yet. And this is our primary target for 2-3 sessions. Anyway, for long position taking we have to get clear bullish reversal pattern on 1H chart, which we do not have yet. Today we expect respect of 8K area, as this is major 5/8 Fib support and our intraday XOP of 8020 level. Only rally to 9.1K level right from here could make us to change the mind.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Two ways to 8K areaMorning folks, Well, BTC actually doesn't need any update, as we're still waiting for 8K area and think that sooner rather than later but BTC will be there. Today just few thoughts on short-term perspective, how market could get there. On 1H chart we see first scenario. This is butterfly, that finalizes as 4H XOP target (look in previous update) as major daily 5/8 Fib support level. Second scenario is reverse H&S pattern. In this case, if market breaks current resistance area (which is neckline as well), it could climb slightly higher - to 9.3K area. But anyway we treat this action just retracement and think that it still will turn down after that. To trade these setups. For butterfly - you could use Stop "Sell" order once price will break "B" lows. This breaks the shape of H&S and will be early bell of its failure. To trade H&S - you could use Stop' Buy" above K-resistance where price stands right now. But potential of this trade is not very significant. Despite these scalp setups, we're mostly watching for big reverse H&S on daily chart and plan major trades around 8K area...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
8000$Morning guys, Despite that few days BTC spends in tight consolidation, but the sell-off of previous week was strong. And this makes us to turn from hypothetical consideration of reverse H&S pattern on daily chart to reality. Since BTC definitely shows downside acceleration and broke strong support area of 9K level almost without any respect, we suggest that currently it is a temporal pause before downside continuation. Our primary level to consider is 8K major daily 5/8 Fib support which agrees with major 1.618 (XOP) target on 4H chart. This is vital point for H&S pattern as it forms the bottom of the right arm. If BTC will turn up from somewhere - this should happen there. Otherwise, failure of H&S will break totally bullish scenario and we will have to change our view into bearish. But it is a bit early to talk about it... In few days we do not exclude minor pullback, somewhere to 9K area (this could become background for scalp traders), but then we still expect downside continuation. Our primary target is 8.0K area where we consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8-8.1K area to considerMorning folks, As we've expressed some doubts on upside perspective - market has confirmed it immediately, showing only flat action within few hours at major support, without even minor bounce. Now price has dropped to our 8604 XOP target that we've mentioned yesterday. Still, as we see clear acceleration down and major support is broken - it makes us consider the scenario that we've mentioned few days ago, reverse H&S pattern on daily chart. It means that we do not see any good chances to buy until market will reach major 8K support area. Next AB=CD target on 4H chart also stands at 8020$
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Minor pullback then action to 8.2 major supportMorning guys, BTC indeed has dropped to next strong support level of 9.1 and at first glance it seems like good chances to buy. At the same time, I do not like how this action to 9K support has happened. We have clear downside acceleration which is not good for bullish reversal. Besides, on daily chart we do not exclude appearing of big reverse H&S pattern, which, in turn, suggests right arm bottom around 8-8.4K area. Combining all this stuff we suggest that BTC probably will show some respect of this strong support area, but it will be just temporal bounce up to 9.5K area, then we tend to idea of downside continuation. If you have bullish view - there are two options. First is to buy from this K-support with stops below 8.6K (AB=CD target inside the channel), move stops to b/e as soon as possible, when price will show acceptable upside action. Second option - ignore short-term context today and focus on next buying opportunity around 8-8.4K area. 9.1K is good support, no doubts, but we have nothing else around. I'm not sure that this is enough for entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Flag consolidationMorning guys, BTC surprisingly quiet compares to the madness that we see on Gold and stock market today... So, we have classic flag pattern consolidation, which keeps bullish longer-term context but doesn't clarify definitely where to take position right now. This is the reason why we have to consider few scenarios. You could choose what you like more. But first - bears have nothing to consider yet, just to keep existed position that we've taken last week with breakeven stop. For the bulls there are two scenarios. First is based on bullish MACD grabber that we have on 4H chart. Theoretical it suggests action above recent top and it might happen that upside breakout starts. If we right - BTC moves higher to 11K target, if not - loss will be minimal, as grabber's invalidation point stands right under its lows. Second scenario, if you do not want to stick with the grabbers, you have to wait either for 10.3K top breakout or drop to our predefined target - 9-9.2K support. In situation with 10.3 level you could use Stop "Buy" order again. Unfortunately this is all inputs that we have by far...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Following to H&S - 9630 then to 9100 areaMorning guys, So, our H&S scenario has been triggered accurately, which means that we should get more extended retracement now to the downside. As H&S stands in place we could calculate destination point with better precision and mostly it confirms our initial suggestion - AB=CD target stands around next strong Fib support area of $9.1K level. Now market shows technical pullback after strong drop and we suggest that it should be "222" Sell on 1H chart to ~9830$ level then BTC should continue action with major AB-CD to 9.1K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9
Moment of truth for H&S patternMorning folks, 3-Drive setup has worked perfectly, now we're at the top of right arm. This is our potential H&S pattern. If it works - we're going to 9.1-9.2, next K-support area. If not - 11K our next destination point. How is to trade it... Well I would suggest using of Stop "Buy" order to bulls. Because we do not know whether H&S will work or not. And using Stop entry order should safe us from negative situation. It would be better to place it slightly below the top of the Head. For the bears... well, market stands at the right arm and this is the point for decision making. If you have bearish view, you could try to sell, but as higher market moves to the top of the head as less chances on H&S success. With bearish scenario market has to turn down right here, immediately. If it climbs higher then something is wrong.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
10.10-10.20$Morning guys, So, harmonic drop down and reaching of first K-support area on 4H chart has happened. Now BTC stands at important moment - it has to proceed higher or retracement becomes stronger. Here is our trading plan. Now, as market stands at strong support area and Agreement (1H XOP target stands here as well) - it is relatively safe to buy against recent lows. Potential loss is small. We suggest that market should show at least AB=CD action to 10.10-10.20 area. Then we need to take carefully. As you can see on the chart, we could get H&S pattern and market should reverse down precisely around 10.20$. That's will be the thing to keep an eye on. Downside reversal there suggests drop to the next K-support area around 9050$, while breakout through 10.2 suggests upside continuation to 11$. So you could buy against the lows, when market moves to 10.1-10.2 - adjust stops to breakout and/or book some profit. Then just watch the movie... P.S. Bears could consider short entry at the 10.2 top of the shoulder.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Keeping an eye on 13K but preparing to 9.5K pullback firstMorning folks, So, our setup with 9.5-10.5K action is done and now market stands at 4H AB-CD target, and daily previous top. Since we see some slow down on "CD" leg, it makes us think that BTC should show some pullback and we treat 9.5-9.6K K-support area as very probable, because this is double harmonic swing and lower border of upside channel on daily chart. Greater retracement is possible, but now we can't definitely say whether it will happen or not. We will do it later. Thus, it is time to manage your position - book result partially or totally, or, at least tight stops...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
9.5 then to 10.5KMorning guys, BTC keeps our scenario accurately, by showing really small retracement and just re-testing of previous broken tops. As a result we have upside channel on daily chart. Following to this pattern we again could suggest the same harmonic retracement and re-testing of previous top. As initial swing down looks strong enough, this makes us think on 2-leg downside action in a shape of some AB-CD pattern, that should give us "222' Buy" pattern. As we have nearest target around 10.5K - our trading plan suggests waiting of pullback somewhere to 9.5K area and there to consider long entry with 10.5K+ target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9.7K is done, next is ~10 Morning guys, Market behaves well by far, keeping all conditions of bullish scenario. As we've said - retracement indeed was shy, although a bit extended in time. Anyway, upward action continues. Now price has hit our next target - 9.7K which is 1.618 extension of BC leg. Once again, retracement has to be small. Price could re-test former consolidation and 1.27 target but should not drop back in former consolidation and should not erase recent upside continuation. If this happens - it cuts chances on upside continuation and lead probably to deeper retracement (H&S could appear). Thus, we could keep an eye on some AB-CD downside retracement and "222" Buy" pattern on 1H chart around 9450-9500 area with next target around 10K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for rectangle breakoutGreetings everybody, Last week was relatively quiet on BTC market. It seems that our suggestion on small retracement was correct. Indeed, market is coiling above 3/8 Fib support on 1H chart, which is also broken daily K-support area. To not bother you with details, we just tell that bullish context is still valid. Besides, as BTC is coming to halving in May, we suggest that miners' activity and hash rate will grow. This will be additional support factor for the market. In nearest time it is not much to discuss. While we stand inside the rectangle we could talk only about small action. Today, for example, as we've got fake upside breakout few hours ago and bearish engulfing pattern inside - we suggest price return back to the lower border of consolidation. Major direction, as always, depends on the way of patterns' breakout. That's why, if you want to possess yourself on major direction - you could consider using of stop entry orders - stop "buy" above rectangle and stop "Sell" below it. But be aware of fake breakouts, place orders with some room to let market breath. Our upside targets are the same - 9.7, 10.1 and 10.5K $. Downside targets we do not consider yet as context stands bullish. Extended view on "The halving" you could read in our blog.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Only small retracements now...Morning guys, So, setup that we've discussed yesterday is done, but it seems that not everybody were in time to come aboard. Today we discuss how to join the rally. But first about targets... now market stands at minor target - 1.27 extension of our "BC" leg, next one will be 1.618 extension around 9.7K, and finally, major destination point is 10.5K - AB=CD target here. As BTC has broken major daily resistance area, and major retracement (which is BC) leg is done already - we do not have any reasons to count on deep retracement again. BTC is not at Overbought as well. Thus, taking '2+2" it seems that most proper level to consider is previous top and minor 3/8 Fib support on 1H chart around 9.2$. Watch for minor "222" Buy around it. BTC keeps bullish context.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Fear shifts the shapeMorning everybody, So, market was frightened a bit yesterday by virus news, as well as other markets across the board and shows different shape. Although it is indeed has tested 9K top again but shape has changed drastically and we haven't got expected H&S pattern. Now we need to change the trading plan. The breakout of daily K-resistance area @ 9K has vital meaning for short-term BTC performance. And our task is try to join this party with minimal risk. Here is what we offer. First, and most simple way to act is to use Stop "Buy" order above daily K-area. Once market will break it, stops will be triggered and you will be on ride somewhere around 9.2-9.3K area. Next target will be 10-10.5K level. Second way is more difficult but it also provides better entry price. We talk on possible momentum trade on 1H chart. Virus news have scared society and it let BTC to show solid rally yesterday with good upside momentum. Now we need to wait for moderate pullback. Our favorite level here is K-support around the same 8.8K area. Here we could consider long entry. The only must condition is to move stops to breakeven when BTC starts to show upside action from this area. Both scenarios reduce risk but have their own adv. and disadv.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
from 8.8 to 8.5$ but what's next?Morning guys, Today's analysis is a bit more sophisticated because we have to consider more scenarios for the market and specify criteria of direction. Our first step is done perfectly. BTC indeed has reached predefined Confluence support area and turned up from it. Now, we have two patterns for estimation upside target. First is AB-CD pattern, which points on 8727$ target and Double Bottom shape which, in turn, suggests that target should be in Agreement with major 5/8 resistance around 8.8K. It means that most probable destination point is the range between these two targets. Next stage should follow down as we just can't miss obvious H&S shape here. Besides 8.8K area is potential neckline of the pattern. Supposedly the right arm bottom should be around 8.5K$. And this will be "Point of clarity" as I call it. Because this is invalidation point for H&S. If market will break it down - be prepared to drop below the "head" and larger downside AB=CD on 4H chart. If market will hold there, I mean around 8.5K - upward action will be re-established, at least BTC has to challenge daily resistance again of 9-9.5K area. Plan your trade accordingly. For instance, to make long entry consider 8.5K - the bottom of the right arm. Bears could think either on neckline resistance or on stop "Sell" order somewhere below right arm but above the Head bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1