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Morten

Moment of truth for BTC - either up to 4500 or drop below 3000Morning guys, So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area. Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and treat this H&S only as a retracement. Sooner or later but due our expectations final leg down should happen. That's why possible H&S failure here is not minor question for us. The one thing that I do not like with this pattern is strong sell-off on right shoulder. Actually on right shoulder bulls should control the market. But, instead of gradual AB-CD that we've discussed previously, we''ve got sharp drop. This is not good. So, we offer to buy insurance - wait for upside action up from major 5/8 Fib support, where market stands right now, and appearing, say, reverse H&S on 1H chart. Butterfly we already have. This is instead of buying right now... But, this is just IMO.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Up to ~ 4000 and down to 3500$Morning guys, Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week. Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback should be, approximately 5/8 to ~4000$ and next we expect CD leg down to ~3500$. That should be the moment where we need to make decision on long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Primary pattern to watch for is H&SMorning guys, yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this. We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm. But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where downside reversal will happen and where neckline of H&S will be. All that we do care about - where this downside retracement will over. Because this is our entry point. And the fact that yesterday downside action is not started - doesn't harm our position, since we do not trade BTC short right now. It just means that we're still waiting...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3450 retracement stands on the tableMorning guys, BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep. As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major context stands up - we do not call you to trade it short right now, but this is not forbidden of course. H&S target suggests drop to major 5/8 Fib support on hourly chart and this is our level where we think about long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for next sky around 3700Morning guys, Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern. It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in the shape of "222" Buy which could be used for long entry again. Thus, if you've missed entry yesterday - don't upset with this. Ordinary H&S target should be around 3700$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3320$ retracement is possibleMorning, guys, On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart. Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320 area. Although we still keep bearish sentiment and mostly treat this pullback as the chance to step in on bearish side again - we should get '222" Sell by this retracement. Long position is not forbidden until "C" point is valid. Otherwise, it will be H&S failure and market will continue downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2900$ on the table?Morning guys, Market shows very weak reaction on any bullish patterns that was forming on intraday charts. Current situation is not an exception. This makes us to wait for 1.618 butterfly target on daily chart around 2900$. Reaction on 1.27 target was just minor harmonic swing. Once trend stands bullish by MACD but price shows flat action - this makes us think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure, which should lead to another leg down sometime soon. Analysis of intraday charts stand in the daily video on our website. Link stands in sign.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4050 minimum target of 3-Drive "Buy" patternGreeting everybody, We're still watching for extention of upside retracement and patterns that could trigger it. Since taking of bearish position is postponed on indefinite time, because we need to wait either when upside retracement will be over or for clear signs of BTC failure and downside action. Now we do not have anything of this kind. For short-term bullish trading, BTC has formed 3-Drive "Buy" pattern on 4H chart. It suggests action above 4050$, but also could become the starting point of greater action. If you have bullish view, you could think about it. Pattern will be valid until market holds the lows. For position taking minor 3/8 retracement could be used on 1H chart, or some bullish continuation pattern, say "222" Buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4100 or 3450$ ?Morning guys, Now we're investigating upside retracement on daily chart, which could happen by one of the three patterns - "222' Buy", Double Bottom or butterfly "Buy". As '222" Buy already stands in place - we're watching of market reaction on it. Yesterday we've talked that upside action could start by H&S pattern, and indeed, market hit the neckline and now is forming right arm. But, now it seems that arm is overextended to the downside and breaks the harmony of the pattern. This makes it weaker. Anyway, if H&S will hold, we could get action to 4100, as AB-CD target of this pattern. Conversely, dropping below recent lows and moving back to the head means that daily '222" triggereed only minor reaction, and next pattern stands on horizion, which is Double bottom. It means that BTC will drop back to daily lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten