Waiting for responseMorning folks,
BTC has hit our weekly target of 36K. Now price stands at rock hard resistance of upside XOP target, Fib K-resistance and daily overbought. It makes sense to wait for the pullback.
Morten
29.15K or upside breakoutMorning folks,
Not occasionally last time we've said - let's wait until the close of the week. And right on Friday situation has changed drastically. We haven't got any of potentially bearish patterns. Although we keep watching for weekly H&S pattern, but since there is no bearish signs yet on lower time frames - we do not consider taking any shorts by far.
If you would like to buy, you could watch for ~29.15 K intraday support. Or use Stop "Buy" order near the top to step in when BTC will challenge the top.
Wait for the weekly closeMorning folks,
So, reaction on fake ETF news makes evident that this even is highly overpriced. Jump just for 3K discovers that this is purely speculative reaction and no real money stands behind. Mostly I would say that this news is already worked out and no multiple raising of BTC capitalization will happen.
Today we suggest to wait for the weekly close. We could get H&S pattern on weekly chart. If we get the bearish grabber on top - it suggest drop under 25 K area. In this case next week we could consider scenarios for bearish entry.
27.4K is vitalMorning folks,
So, BTC is moving by some reasons, known only to itself. Market is very thin and it seems that investors just are searching for something to make some moves. The connection to performance as safe haven as risky assets is lost.
Now it was reported that some short liquidation has happened and long-term hodlers have accumulated $3.2Mln positions in 48 hours in anticipation of coming approvement of ETF, no matter from whom - BlackRock, Grayscale etc...
Anyway, technically, market starts upward action after downside AB-CD retracement. By logic it has to be new extension swing to daily XOP target around 30K. Second - as major pullback is done already, BTC has not to show any strong pullbacks. That's why we have to keep an eye on 27.4K support area on 1H chart. Market has to stay above it to keep this scenario valid.
Otherwise, recent rally will be erased and downside action deepened.
Market is nervousWell-well...
We see downside AB-CD action that we've planned last week, but it has not started. Market right now is very difficult to analyse, because it is rather thin, trading volumes have dropped dramatically. And any single transaction could trigger big moves. Besides, recent drop is difficult to explain from external factors - US yields are dropping, everything is raising, except BTC...
While it was going higher like a crazy on some phantom expectations of ETF, despite environment was bearish. It behaves neither like safe haven nor like normal risky asset. It seems that fluctuations are becoming random and triggered occasionally just based on some news release.
Technically, now the downside AB-CD finally has started. Since we have acceleration on CD leg, I would wait for 26K area before even thinking about long entry. Besides, 26K lows is invalidation point of short-term bullish context. If BTC breaks it down, we will go under 25K.
27.2K seems vital for nowMorning folks,
Technically we could say that situation remains bullish, as market is coiling right around daily resistance area and stubbornly doesn't want to show deeper retracement that we've discussed last time, so we haven't got better entry levels by far.
From the fundamental background - we do not clearly understand reasons for euphoria. The sentiment is based on some blur expectations concerning ETF and other things. It is definitely not enough by our view to go against high interest rates, raising dollar and negative processes in the US economy, including global politics.
Anyway, for now, since context remains bullish by far, if you want to buy - try to do it as close to 27K lows as possible, just to minimize the risk. If BTC breaks this level down - deeper downside action happens. While it stands in triangle - it keeps chances on upside continuation right from current levels.
27 and 26.40 for accumulationMorning folks,
So, based on some recent news, which we think definitely are overpriced, BTC was able to show upside bounce. Our view that the major events are still ahead and 30K level should show whether the major rally starts or not. But, first - BTC has to get there.
Now we have short-term bullish context and consider position accumulation around 27 and 26.40K support area, suggesting that downside retracement might be a bit deeper.
Vital level for this setup is 26K lows. It price drops below it - upward action is over and we're going to 25K.
If everything will be OK, then BTC should try to test 30K area.
25.8-25.9K targetMorning folks,
Any rally are rejecting fast due to overall fundamental background. And this is not surprising when you have 10-year yield around 4.6% (which will be 5% within a month, we think) and collapse on stock market.
As you could see recent rally has been rejected fast. Now we have few targets, but nearest one is based on bearish engulfing pattern, which we treat as the nearest one. It creates Agreement with Fib level. Thus 25.8-25.9K is the nearest thing to watch...
25.6-25.8K is the next oneMorning folks,
As we've said emotional reactions never stands for long and fundamentals sooner rather than later will take the domination again. BTC not just has reached our 26.4K target but also has broken the K-support area that was around.
Now we're turning to the next one - 25.6-25.8K and do not exclude return back to 25K lows in perspective of 1-2 weeks
26.4-26.5 pullbackMorning folks,
BTC has completed our target of 27.4K. Since current background is not friendly for any rally on BTC, we expect normal market reaction on completion target and strong daily resistance level, watching first for 26.4-26.5K support area.
27.4K still on the tableMorning folks,
Situation has not changed significantly since Thu update. We still keep our short-term upside target around 27.4K. Now price is coiling around 4H K-resistance after completion of COP target (0.618 AB-CD extension).
Here we have two bullish signs. First is - tight standing right under the level suggests attempt of breakout. Second - we have bullish dynamic pressure when MACD goes down while price is not. It points on the same.
That's being said, until next update on Thu, BTC should try to break resistance up and touch 27.4K target
27-27.4K is possibleMorning folks,
BTC now is living from one news to another, with record low trading volume and no interest to the market from investors. Despite any short-term spikes, BTC has nothing to offer when Fed rate is around 5.5 and forward stock market yield is already lower than short-term T-Bills one.
It makes us think that long-term bearish tendency is intact. In short-term, market has some upside momentum, after completion of our 24.7 XOP target and grabbing stops under 25 lows. Based on this momentum, it could try to climb slightly higher, to 27-27.4K area.
But before this happens, we suggest that BTC will show deep retracement, so we should get new "C" point for our AB-CD upside pattern.
Nothing to change - 24.7K on the tableMorning folks,
BTC is totally dead, very anemic and tight action. 54% of all transactions now is just deposit/withdrawal operations from broker accounts... We have three reasons to keep our bearish scenario and 24.7K target intact: uncompleted downside AB-CD (XOP) target, signs of bearish dynamic pressure (MACD is bullish while price action is not) and high level of the US bonds yield.
Whether pullback will happen or not - we will see, but definitely not before 24.7K target been reached.
Grayscale ETF hype has vapoured out fastMorning folks,
As we've warned on Thursday - all this hype around Grayscale ETF is purely emotional and speculative. This topic just was used to shake the boat - that's all. Two days after everything returns back.
As we've said already - we do not expect any rally if even Fidelity, BlackRock or whatever else ETF will be approved by SEC. Yes, minor emotional jump could happen but it doesn't change the fundamentals which are totally bearish for BTC.
What really matter - is US yields, that are raising again. BTC recent performance looks bearish and we keep the same target valid - 24.7K, at least. We do not consider any long positions by far.
When the dust settlesMorning folks,
Poor BTC has got occasion to show the rally on a background of Greyscale Hedge Fund and its SEC dispute. SEC has been obliged by court to review its decision, but, guys, to be honest - how this relies to BTC pricing? Whether it will be Hedge fund or ETF, what's the difference. Its just the way of money investing.
Besides, SEC intends to make appellation and could find just different reason to deny. Anyway - we see purely speculative activity around this event that doesn't correspond to BTC pricing or value. And we think this is temporal.
As a result of these conclusions, we keep valid our 24.70K daily XOP target and consider current levels interesting for short entry, as soon as we get some bearish pattern, such as "222" Sell, for example.
No activity - no changes.Morning folks,
So, markets are a bit frustrated by recent J. Powell speech and its indecision. Fundamentally nothing has changed - we still have bearish view on BTC market in long term. High interest rates and coming new spiral of inflation in the US leaves no chances to non-interest bearing BTC.
When T-notes and T-bills already give 1.8% premium to S&P dividend yield.
In short-term, we do not see any activity since our last update. This week we get the bulk of important data so, investors prefer to wait when they will get the numbers. Still, Strong downside momentum and flat action makes us think about 24.4-24.7K target as very probable one.
24.7K target is intactMorning folks,
just minor update for our setup - we keep 24.7K intact. BTC has got unexpected support from the drop of the US interest rates, but we consider this as temporal moment. Still the butterfly pattern has not been formed.
For now, we see upside target around 27K, and this is the first level where BTC could turn down again.
24.75K and pullbackMorning folks,
BTC performance once again shows that fundamental factors always dominate over news stream and hype. First is, we've got first Jacobi ETF in EU - and nothing. Investors start doubt about explosive reaction on BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs, whether people will bring their funds there.
Second - while US yields jumped above 4% - BTC has collapsed. We expect further yields growth, rising CPI and possible another rates hike from the Fed this year.
Technically, current drop breaks the back of the bulls. Drop under 24K area will open road to 12-15K lows again.
Meantime, in short-term we expect reaching our final 24.75K daily target and moderate upside bounce then, as BTC could start forming big daily/weekly H&S pattern.
28.1 & 26.5KMorning folks,
So, market once again tells that fundamentals - rules, confirming our mid term bearish view and slowly but stubbornly going to our 28.1K target.
Potential bullish scenario of rounding bottom (or cup), has failed, that we've mentioned last time. Now, we're watching for 28.10K downside AB-CD target, with potential continuation within few weeks to 26-26.5K area.
The major reasons - take a look at the US yields. We expect that it will be higher, with next 10-year yields target around 5% within few months:
Inflation will turn up again in the US as soon as mid September starting new upside spiral. We expect to see 2-digit inflation in the US by the end of 2024 early 2025. (If everything will not break earlier).
Interesting point to considerGreetings everybody,
BTC picture remains tricky. Fundamentally, we do not see any reasons for BTC rally and keep untouched OP target that we are discussing in lat two weeks.
Still, since market is forming symmetrical round bottom on 1H chart, it seems it stands now in perfect position for long entry where risk/reward ratio is maximal. It doesn't guarantee success, but, gives chance to get minimal possible loss.
Because if it goes up - it should go right from here. Otherwise it collapses. So, if you have reasons to buy - you could consider current area
For confirmation of bullish changes market has to move above 30.4K level and form bullish reversal swing.
Same scenarioMorning folks,
Situation has not changed. Additionally we've got few new bearish grabbers on daily chart. That's why, we do not see any reasons to change our trading plan and still watching for 28-28.3K target area. Now we do not consider any longs, let's see what will happen when (&if) our target will be reached.
28.1KMorning folks,
So, our 28.5K Butterfly target was perfectly completed. Then market has shown reaction on the US downgrading from Fitch Agency. But this reaction was very short-term. As a result, we've got bearish grabber on daily chart, suggesting that our 28.1K target is still valid.
Besides, US yields are rising, which makes additional pressure on BTC. Thus, we do not consider any new long positions for now and watching for 28.1K target (at least).
Keep the same scenarioMorning folks,
So, based on BTC performance we do not see any reasons to change our view and we still keep the scenario with 28-28.5K target. BTC absolutely doesn't support main market stream, based on recent "positive" statistics of GDP, PCE, CPI etc.
This is indirect sign of weakness. Here, on the chart we put the butterfly, but actually this is just one of the possible market shapes. The major thing is our OP target around 28.1 on 4H chart.
