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Fed puts bearish backgroundMorning folks, So, the Fed decision should not become a surprise for those who read our BTC fundamental reports. In last two weeks we've spent time for in-depth analysis to whether Fed stands near the pivot or not. And have come to conclusion that Fed remains tight, terminal rate should increase 4.5-4.75% widely anticipated level and move above 5%. Recent Fed statement was hawkish and puts bearish background for BTC market. BTC shows weaker reaction compares FX and gold market mostly because it has lost 60% of its capitalization and rest speculators have not enough funds to trigger big moves. Now, despite BTC stands by far above 20K area, we do not consider taking any new long positions and suggests that advantage stands on a bears' side. P.S. NFP also hardly makes impact on market performance. Because, indirectly, due to the Fed's tone, we could suggest that NFP numbers should somewhere around expectations.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
20K is VitalMorning folks, So, BTC has started nice with upside breakout of the range, re-tested the border. But now it can't proceed higher to 20.6K target. Although, if it is really bullish, it should to. The reason for that is the Fed - they start more actively contract the ballance sheet trying to come up with the promised values of bonds' sell of. Thus, last week finally 20 Bln in MBS have been sold. Now QT plan is completed for ~65%, but they are accelerating. You know our bearish view on BTC. Fed is no near the pivot yet. Technical picture shows that bullish context is becoming weaker. Maybe some external drivers, such as Fed comments or NFP data this week could push it higher to complete 20.6K, but as it stands right now - I'm not fascinating with taking the long position. We suggest that 20K lows are vital here. Downside breakout could be treated as a signals to step in for the bears.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Intervention injectionMorning folks, All markets in general and BTC in particular have got a liquidity injections due massive interventions by PBoC, BoJ and SNB in recent 2-3 sessions. This factor intrudes technical picture and has turned it bullish. Still, we think that it is not reliable and could easy go as easy it has come. Thus, we treat current action as technical pullback. Here we have to watch for two moments. First is nearest upside target is 21.5-21.6K that could be reached. Second - market now stands at resistance. If BTC fails to break it, and returns back in consolidation - do not take long position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
IndecisionMorning folks, Market obviously stands indecision. Fundamental background remains bad but technical liquidity support from the Fed and pre-election rally distorts the picture. This lets BTC stands on the surface but at the same time it has not inner power to accelerate higher. Currently, we do not see any good trading setups, but on longer term charts we keep our bearish view and suggest that downside breakout of daily consolidation in just a question of time. Here, on 1H chart we have triangle consolidation with potential fake upward breakout. The Friday's rally is mostly erased, so, let's keep watching. For intraday trading you could try to catch "222" patterns inside the consolidation on 4H chart. Now we do not have any. Still we think that bears have more chances to succeed...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
sudden support disappearsMorning folks, Jump on all markets after CPI report was total shock for market society, at least based on the multiple comments. It has come from Fed minutes that have shown different opinions among the members on the future rate hike's pace. Second, the US banks have sent clear signal to Fed that with this rate pace they could get problems as with earnings as with default provisions. The bounce on BTC also happened, but it was as strong. We haven't got downside range breakout, but price remains inside the range, and we suggest that downside breakout is a question of time. Since we've got daily bearish grabber, we do not consider long positions by far. Bears, if would like to, could think about position taking around 5/8 19.5K resistance. Potentially downside action could take a shape of the butterfly, with initial target @ 17.6 Invalidation point of this stuff is above 20K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
16.5K?Morning folks, Overall situation on financial markets is far from positive. UK Bond market has collapsed and nobody knows what end will it have. J. Yellen speaks on liquidity shorts on Treasury Bills market. PPI was two times greater than expected yesterday. With such environment, whatever CPI we will get today, hardly it will reverse BTC market up. Thus, we do not consider long position now. Since market has failed to break consolidation up - most logical way is to attempt to break it down. If it will be successful, BTC could reach 16.5K level. We do not see any bearish continuation patterns inside the range. So you could wait for them, or use Stop "Sell" entry order near the low border of consolidation. If you want to sell of course.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
19.70-19.75 looks nice for shortMorning folks, Recent NFP data and following hawkish comments from Fed members give small chances to stock and BTC markets to show any kind of upside performance. Fed last week finally seriously started QT and cut the balance for $200 Bln, drying more liquidity out of the market. This week we also expect the bumpy ride with CPI, Fed minutes and retail sales releases. Thus, in current circumstances, as BTC has failed to complete even minor upside target last week, we suggest that 1H chart 19.70-19.75 resistance might be considered for short entry with potential downside continuation back to daily lows. If, of course, this upside bounce happens at all...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
20.6-21K seems OK for shortMorning folks, Fed has opened liquidity box, trying to calm down markets, households before US elections, and making the image that everything is becoming well, situation is normalizing, markets start rising. This is short-term performance for just 3-4 weeks, until elections take place. Then, everything should collapse. Anyway, within these weeks, BTC could climb slightly higher, following other markets, although BTC lags solidly behind stock market performance by far. In very short-term (tod-tom) we consider 20.6-21K resistance area as interesting for taking short position. we could get "222" Sell precisely at the trendline resistance. Besides, we have multiple targets on intraday chart in this area. Thus, downside bounce, especially if NFP will be more or less positive, is possible.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
20.25K looks interesting for entryMorning folks, Markets finally get tactical relief and show pullback across the board - Dollar Index, EUR, GBP etc., everything is bouncing. But what is BTC? It is not. Flat action, any attempt to show the bounce sells off fast. This makes us think on existence of bearish pressure. As a target we consider daily AB-CD with 16.20K destination point. Market has set the new lows on daily chart, so we can't use the butterfly pattern any more as it has been erased. On intraday chart price stands in the range, which is also potentially bearish. Appearing of "222" Sell pattern here, with potential starting point around 20-20.25K looks interesting for consideration of taking short position. At least this pattern gives chance to place very tight stop, so risk will be minimal
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
17.4 and 16K are nearest targetsMorning folks, So, miracle has not happened, and phantom bullish setup that we've discussed last time has been vanished. We see now multiple fundamental reasons of downside continuation, not only Fed move for 1%. Dollar Index analysis shows that currency should reach 113 point level, households start selling stocks, which is necessary factor for collapse on stock market. US Strategical crude oil reserves equals commercial ones, which means no export any more and no ability to burn reserves to hold price rising. Inflation will keep going higher. All these moments are negative. On daily chart we have clear bearish dynamic pressure - MACD trend stands bullish while price action is not. Second important issue- price has failed to jump back inside the flag. Thus, although our long term target as 12.2K and 9K, in near term we're watching for 17.4K and 16K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Only for the fansMorning folks, So, CPI report stands in a row with our long-term BTC view, matching good to the 12K and 9K targets that sooner or later but will be completed. Currently overall sentiment stands negative as chances for 1% Fed move now jumped up to 38%. Besides, our Dollar Index Analysis suggests action to 113 area, which brings nothing good to the bulls here as well. Thus, any pullback we consider as short-term, and upside target is limited as well. In fact we're sceptic on taking the long position here, although theoretical setup exists. For the bears it is also nothing to do yet as they have to wait either for upside bounce to sell the rally or to downside breakout of 19.9K support area, which opens the road to the lows. For the bulls... only for the fans... Theoretically you could try to follow current setup. We have hint on H&S here, chances on success are phantom. The only relief is that risk is very small. Take a look right at the bottom we have minor H&S pattern. So, it is not needed to place stop too far and is enough to hide it just under the lows. If minor H&S fails - the whole bullish setup will fail as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
20-21K for short term long positionMorning folks, Based on recession fears and some decrease of crude oil prices, as well as anticipation of lower CPI numbers tomorrow, market falls in euphoria, suggesting deeper upside bounce. We do not see any positive change in fundamental picture and treat this action as temporal. Still, in short-term, market has formed bullish reversal swing, and potentially could form the H&S that we've talked last week. Thus, 20-21K area seems interesting for possible long position taking. Also this area is vital for the bullish scenario. Since upside action looks thrusty, we do not consider new shorts by far, waiting how this bullish performance will be finished.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
19.2K bounce and 17.5K targetMorning folks, Overall action stands relatively quiet,so we have minimal changes since Mon. Overall context remains bearish. Maybe poor NFP numbers only could trigger more or less moderate bounce. Here we have two targets. First one is 19.2K which could be finalized by minor butterfly with tactical upside response on intraday charts. This is the object for scalp traders, who wants to take long position. At the same time, bears could try to sell possible rally, aiming on the next 17.5K target. BTC now has no support at all - major levels have been broken, market is not at oversold. Only previous 20K top works like natural support line and holds the price by far. But it can't last forever.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
21.70-22K is vital bearish areaMorning folks, Thursday plan has worked nice. Wyoming meeting just has confirmed our long-term view and why we call to stay aside of BTC since Jan 2022. BTW, we've prepared new fundamental report where we explain why it is not the time yet to invest, set downside targets and also share forecasts of long-term performance of BTC and US Stocks... ITs free on Forexpeacearmy website, just watch for Blog part and find my Blog - Sive Morten. Now concerning the short-term. As market has no solid support, context remains bearish. Nearest downside targets are 19.2K and 17.5K. But, as daily bearish flag has been broken - for short term BTC it is vital to stay outside the flag. Otherwise stronger upside bounce is possible. That's why for short-term bearish setup we consider 21.70-22.05K resistance area as a vital, because it also coincides with the flag trendline. For position taking you could consider any other Fib levels - 20.41K and 21K K-resistance. We do not consider any long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
25.2-25.5K seems interesting for new short positionMorning folks, BTC goes with our long-term fundamental view and those who read our monthly reports knows about it since December 2021 when we've warned against long-term investments in BTC. This week end we have taken in-depth view on the US stock market that shows bad perspectives and BTC as usual is becoming a storm crower, with 600 Mln+ positions were liquidated just on Friday... In short-term it seems that 25.2-25.4 resistance area might be interesting to consider another short position. Right now we do not consider any longs by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
22-22.4K bounce up to 24-24.4 Morning folks, So, longer-term perspective remains bearish by far as Fed minutes recently tells that tightening effect yet to come on the market, unemployment should start rising in II H of 2022 and Fed stands on the course of 0.5-0.75% rate change in September. In general this sounds hawkish enough. The pullback from daily resistance that we've discussed last time has started accurately. But now market is coming to 22-22.4K support and if you still hold the short position - you have to decide how to manage it. WE suggest that downside action is not over yet, and in mid term it should continue to major ~20K area support. But in short-term it could be interrupted by the pullback to form larger bearish pattern - H&S on 1H chart. It means that starting from 22-22.4K area BTC could turn to form right arm top around 24-24.4K. This will be 2nd chance for short entry. Bulls in turn, could consider scalp long trade if reversal patterns will be formed around neckline and support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical bearish setup is readyMorning folks, Our long term view stands intact - we do not exclude action up to 30K or even to 36K resistance within 6-9 months due changes in fundamental background - starting QE activity from the Fed and massive US government programmes up to $1 Trln. This should flow more liquidity on the markets. This is the way how Democrats would like to create the visuality of success, prosperity before November elections... In short-term our XOP on 4H mostly is done, as well as butterfly. Thus, bears could think about position taking with initial stops above daily K-resistance of 26.35K. But this is tactical pullback by far. Do not merry the position, and better to focus on the lower border of daily channel, as the target by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Next target is 25.5-26.2KMorning guys, As we've said few weeks ago - the Fed strategy is changing and we take off the table 9K and 12K target for at least 6-9 months, when BTC could feel pretty nice. Recent CPI data also should have long lasting effect, letting Fed to act with more freedom and not as aggressively, which is inspired stocks and crypto markets. As NFP report as CPI data supports our short-term scenario with 25.5-26.2K targets. It could be finalized by butterfly on 4H chart. Once it will be completed - bears could consider short-term position taking with stops above 26.2K resistance on daily chart, while bulls just need to wait for the pullback out of the same area to consider position taking once pullback will be over.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Short-term context is bullishMorning folks, So, upside action has started accurately once the butterfly and XOP target have been completed, based on our previous update. BTC feels safe on the background of recent Fed money market activity. Last week was injected about $25 Bln, so should be no problems from this side. The only risk factor this week is CPI on Wed. As we've said recently - we do not consider the new shorts by far. On 1H chart market is going with the reverse H&S pattern. If you have missed both chances to buy - as on our previous update, as later, when H&S was formed, now the chance could come after OP target completion. Since we have major target around 25.3-26.2 area, the XOP target here, which is around 24.6K also should be completed, right? Thus, if BTC will show any pullback once OP is done - this could be the chance for long entry. It is vital that price remains above the neckline. Thus, support area around 23.3-23.5K looks OK to consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten