Re-evaluate the situation...AMD and NVDA are the best companies in their class, however, the stock prices do not necessarily always represent the fundamentals!
George Soros beautifully said:
The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.
Another good piece of advice from Bill Williams:
Go with the flow,
Ride the tide, and
Bend with the trend.
Some novice traders believe prices could go to infinity, they call it "Moon"!
They never listen to the contrary views, and hardly reevaluate their primary positions!
The most successful trading in history, Jim Simons said:
We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money."
Having mentioned the above points, You need a primary plan to enter the trade and tools to reevaluate the primary plan!
Stop loss and Trailing Stop Loss is the most important tools that protect you from your mistakes but without attention to position size, they will be less effective!
Let's get back to AMD and NVDA:
The increase in price volume is too much to ignore after a sharp rally of +125% and 157% in the past year!
Reading my previous posts will give you all the information you need:
AMD:
NVDA:
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Moshkelgosha
How far RBLX could go down?Today RBLX runs out of steam, distanced -12% from the top, and filled the gap!
I think this overwhelming sell-off will continue and could push the price down to 100-110 once again!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A Question for Bulls???I might be wrong..!
But let's think about:
Why do volumes decrease constantly while the prices go up in the past 6 days ???
Could this phenomenon be a bullish sign and show strength in the market?
I think, sooner or later this will play its role and affect the charts!
Any trend going higher at lower volumes is impending to reversal!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The Biggest candle of the year is RED..!Today's Candle is the biggest candle of the past trading year for Microsoft!
How would you handle this information if you know Microsoft has one of the best Balance sheets in the world?
I think Microsoft will move toward the target!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Peloton, all phase of a bubble formation in market!Just look at this chart and see how after a 866% gain in 43 weeks peloton lost almost all of it in 47 weeks!
Looking at the current trend of decline in revenue, it may never get back on the past all times high!
No need to say rivals coming one after the other!
Price action trade could happen!
Do you know who created this bubble???
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
10-20% correction in Qualcomm It seems QCOM is making a top formation and could experience a 10-20% correction in the coming weeks!
I was not Bearish on this one!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Smart Money Sell off..!From a fundamental point of view, I have no doubt NVIDIA is one of the best tech companies in the world!
But Chart shows more correction is more possible!
NVDA 30 days trading volume price increased from 6 billion to 16 billion in the past 28 days!
You may think why this could be important?
Your answer is NVDA is the Best performer among mega-caps in the past trading year! NVDA outperformed TSLA, AMD, NDX, SPX...
Conclusion:
230 price target could happen in less than 2 months!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Moving toward 1.8 Trillion Breaking below 50 EMA daily the next support will be 50 EMA Weekly!
No long positions until we see an upswing!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Head and Shoulders or Island Top?NVDA could move toward 300 once again and this means put options have high return potentials this week!
Based on the current pattern it could make a Head and shoulder pattern or Islan Top formation!
What Is an Island Reversal?
An island reversal is a price pattern on bar charts or candlestick charts that, on a daily chart, features a grouping of days separated on either side by gaps in the price action. This price pattern suggests that prices may reverse whatever trend they are currently exhibiting, whether from upward to downward or from downward to upward.
An island reversal changing from upward trending prices (bullish) to downward trending prices (bearish) is much more frequent than the opposite.
Head and Shoulders Pattern
The head and shoulders chart pattern is a popular and easy-to-spot pattern in technical analysis that shows a baseline with three peaks, the middle peak being the highest. The head and shoulders chart depicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal and signals that an upward trend is nearing its end.
The pattern appears on all time frames and can, therefore, be used by all types of traders and investors. Entry levels, stop levels, and price targets make the formation easy to implement, as the chart pattern provides important and easily visible levels.
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
reference article:
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
Tesla ForecastClosing below the Daily 50 EMA after a sharp rally could push the price to the 50 EMA weekly as the next Support level!
looking at the past 2 corrections shows this clearly!
The target of the bearish case could be 750-800!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Which pattern could be more effective?At the first glance, You may find both patterns correct and justify both!
But adding ATR to the chart may reveal the hidden truth!
ATR only measures volatility and not the direction of an asset's price.
Pattern 1: Broadening Formation or Megaphone
What Is a Broadening Formation?
A broadening formation is a price chart pattern identified by technical analysts. It is characterized by increasing price volatility and diagrammed as two diverging trend lines, one rising and one falling. It usually occurs after a significant rise, or fall, in the action of security prices. It is identified on a chart by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows.
Pattern 2: Corrction/consolidation
In this situation, we expect lower changes in ATR readings!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reference Articles:
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
Possible price target in next 20 weeks!Looking at the Microsoft chart you will find out corrections between 8.37 - 9.54% repeatedly!
Having said that, anytime after an 8-9% decline from the top you could start evaluating the chart for possible reversal and opening long position!
What Is Buy the Dips?
"Buy the dips" means purchasing an asset after it has dropped in price. The belief here is that the new lower price represents a bargain as the "dip" is only a short-term blip and the asset, with time, is likely to bounce back and increase in value.
Buying the dips refers to going long an asset or security after its price has experienced a short-term decline, in a repeated fashion.
Buying the dips can be profitable in long-term uptrends, but unprofitable or tougher during secular downtrends.
Dip buying can lower one's average cost of owning a position, but the risk and reward of dip-buying should be constantly evaluated.
(Investopedia)
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
1 Ticker 4 different Scenario..!This is the weekly chart of Apple.
We can see 2 different valid chart patterns, both could have 2 different price targets!
One Conservative (Green) and the other one Optimistic(Golden)!
Please pay attention to the time frames! Optimistic Patterns could happen in 4-7 months!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ 100 Forcast!It would be better to use weekly charts for long-term analysis!
Trend: Bullish +141% gain in the past 89 weeks!
Bullish Runs: 6x, gain 15-83%, Duration: 6-23 weeks
Corrections: 6 times, -7.29 - 14.16%, Duration: 2-4 weeks!
Now let's compare the distance between new and previous pivot highs!
In the past4 times anytime NDX passed above the previous pivot high moves between +6.8-11.7%, duration: 11-24 weeks!
My observation:
Looking closer at the above phenomenon, we see last time NDX has closed 6.8% above the previous pivot high, which was much lower than 11.5 and 11.7 % in the previous advancement!
Having said that, the next pivot high for NDX in a Bullish case could be =<6.8% above the last pivot high.
If NDX closed above the previous pivot high in the coming week, the target could be 18000 in the following weeks!
Since the market has not made a Lower Low pattern in the last 89 weeks, closing below 15543.31 must be considered an alarming sign if happens!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
S&P 500 Forcast..!It would be better to use weekly charts for long-term analysis!
Trend: Bullish +115% gain in the past 89 weeks!
Bullish Runs: 6x, gain +47.51- 10.86%, Duration: 21-7
Corrections: 6 times, -4.17% - 10.55%, Duration: 2-5 weeks!
Now let's compare the distance between new and previous pivot highs!
In the past 5 times anytime S&P 500 passed above the previous pivot high moves between 10.98% to 4.6%, duration: 11-24 weeks!
My observation:
Looking closer at the above phenomenon we see anytime SPx has closed above the previous pivot high, it has advanced less!
This clearly shows the rate of return has been decreased constantly since March 2020.
Having said that, the next pivot high for S&P 500 in a Bullish case could be 3-4.5% above the last pivot high.
If SPX closed above the previous pivot high in the coming week, the target could be 4886-4960 in the following weeks!
Since the market has not made a Lower Low pattern in the last 89 weeks, closing below 4495.12 must be considered an alarming sign if happens!
Calculating the risk of Entry: Reward to Risk: 1.13
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
We are at the gate of a Hyper Inflation..!In less than 48 hours, we are going to see a new high inflation record in the past 3 decades!
Let's go back a few months ago, on May 30, 2021, I published my first article about Inflation: It was a contrarian view compared to Jerome Powel chair of the Federal Reserve of the united states who believes inflation is temporary and COVID related.
Title: Accelerated inflation in the past year entered a new phase!
On October 13, 2021, I published another article and mentioned my reasons why this Inflation could not be temporary! In that article I mentioned:
I strongly believe anyone who talks about "Deflation" at this moment is either a fool or tries to fool others..!
Title: Inflation Temporary or Lasting?
Now estimations are around 6.7 for US Inflation Rate YoY and this is above 6.4 which could lead to a recession or Hyperinflation!
I think Hyperinflation is the more likely scenario..!
For the reasons you can read my article on June 2nd, 2021 article:
Title: How the government could control inflation?
Anyone with basic mathematical knowledge can see the acceleration in the chart unless try to ignore it:
Conclusion:
I believe the monetary policy of this administration so far is putting fuel on the fire..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
New Target for LUCIDLCID will come down for the same reason it jumped up..!
Previous analysis:
and before that:
you may benefit from this post as well:
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Betting against markets..!Shorting the market is always more sophisticated than buying the bull market!
And if you are willing to use Options contract to do that it needs more calculations and close attention to statistics!
Having said that, it is crucial to monitor option trading data as well to have better forecasts..!
SPY and QQQ are amongst highest volume traded option contracts and have highest Open interests.
Recently, I noticed huge shift in the Put/Call volume and OI.
While usually Put/Call trading volume and OI was below 1-0.8 which is rational in a bullish market, these numbers have been changed to:
SPY:
Put/Call volume: 1.39
Put/Call OI: 1.89
QQQ:
Put/Call volume: 2.19
Put/Call OI: 2.20
The above data clearly shows the shift from Bullish to Bearish outlook!
While FOMO bites retail traders to buy more everyday, bigger players seems do the opposite!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Rank 1st WSB stock..!AAPL is currently ranked 1st on WSB mentioned ticker list after SPY, but I think Today or Tomorrow could be the last green day for AAPL!
AAPL Put 175 DEC 10, 2021, is currently trading at 2.15..! (lowest price of the day 2.11)
I am going to review this post on Friday!
Max pain 165..!
option trading exposes you to a high risk of losing your capital, never investing in any idea more than what you can afford to lose(5%).
Never leave a trade without stop loss.
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Highest Volume Price since previous COVID Market Crash!Last week Volume price is so significant that it is hard to ignor!
Highest Volume since Feb 2021 and 2x of weekly average in the past 52 weeks!
This clearly shows the willingness to close long positions is at the highest level!
The only bigger and green bar is the last week of March 2020 at the end of the pandemic crash!
I am going to monitor this as a significant bearish phenomenon!
I know this sound rediculous when most market tickers are green, but only 9% of tickers are trading with volume above their relative volume!
Relative Volume (often times called RVOL) is an indicator that tells traders how current trading volume is compared to past trading volume over a given period. It is kind of a like a radar for how “in-play” a stock is.
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Similarities and diffrences matters!Comparing the current S&P500 correction to the previous one in September 2021 reveals:
1- This could be the first phase of correction(A), and we may have a B and C in the coming days!
2- The first part (A) is -5.28% (11days) in Sep 2021 and -5.24% (8) in December 2021, Rate of change is 36.5% higher this time..!
Conclusion:
Correction at a higher level with a higher rate of change makes a deeper "C" possible..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
IntelIntel beats the expectation by 53% yet opened 11% lower after the earnings and revenue..!
This is why I usually do not like to hold stocks before earnings!
This is happening when
P/E:11
EPS:4.53
DIV YLD: 2.48%
and fundamental analysis fair price for INTC is 63-68.
INTC is a Blind Buy at 43-45 zone and Blind Sell at 67-69 zone. This trad set up generates 50% easy money in 6 months!
Put your Buy limits in the system and wait..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Still No evidence of Bullish trend..!Market experienced one of the highest volatility days in the 2021, and Closed 1.17% higher!
however, still we can not see any Up-swing..!
Keep looking for a higher high and a higher low..!
Do not rush..!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.