10% decline looks imminent ..!It looks like the Crypto market has run out of steam and a Flash crash is about to happen..!
It is already 10% below the 2.743 Trillion, but another 10%-15% decline is closer than what you think!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Moshkelgosha
The next 12-24 days!I think the Solana price pattern follows a harmonic regression pattern. and in the next 12 days, the probability of going lower is more likely than going higher!
I will review this post after 12 days to see if there is any sign of reveal!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
52500, will be touched in November 2021..!For more information, please look at my previous analysis..!
Moving Toward DisequilibriumThe reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium. (George Soros)
Let's look at Tesla and compare it with the 10 biggest Auto Makers after Tesla.
Some people may argue Tesla is not an automaker and it is an energy company, but 97.7% of the revenue has been generated from selling automobiles.
It may be interesting for you to know if you have 1020 Billion dollars, you can buy Tesla or a package of the next 10 biggest companies altogether..!
Toyota (240 B)
Volkswagen (153 B)
BYD (143 B)
Daimler (104 B)
General Motors (83 B)
Great wall Motors (78 B)
BMW (68 B)
NIO (67 B)
Stellantis (63 B)
Ford (63 B)
This is happening while Tesla's revenue is 31 Billion dollars and the other 10 generate 1100 Billion dollars.
Here you can find the list and compare them: www.tradingview.com
If Tesla manages to increase the revenue 10 times in the next 7 years, the gross profit will be around 118 billion.
Toyota Motors: Revenue 262 B, Gross profit 71B in 2021.
Volkswagen Revenue 311 B in 2021.
In long term, the Tesla P/E ratio will decrease significantly..!
Do not forget, Elon Musk's Options will expire in early 2021, and he said he will sell them before the expiration..!
The question is:
Is Tesla pricy or others are cheap?
The market will answer this question in the next 6 years..!
It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. Charlie Munger
Facebook loosing supports one after another!Facebook has lost more than 17% of its value in the past 40 days, yet it could go lower!
A bigger problem is this is happening at a higher than average volume!
The best strategy could be waiting for a clear reversal pattern instead of speculating the bottom of this correction!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A Classic Megaphone Pattern..!What Is a Broadening Formation?
A broadening formation is a price chart pattern identified by technical analysts. It is characterized by increasing price volatility and diagrammed as two diverging trend lines, one rising and one falling. It usually occurs after a significant rise, or fall, in the action of security prices. It is identified on a chart by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows. The chart below shows an example of a classic broadening formation.
Broadening formations occur when a market is experiencing heightened disagreement among investors over the appropriate price of a security over a short period of time. Buyers become increasingly willing to buy at higher prices, while sellers find even more motivation to take profits.
Broadening formations may also occur during earnings season when companies may report differing quarterly financial results that can cause bouts of optimism or pessimism.
These formations are relatively rare during normal market conditions over the long term since most markets tend to trend in one direction or another over time.
Reference article:
www.investopedia.com
2.5-2.4 trillion is a critical level..!In these charts, you can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days!
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Hourly Chart: downward channel (Bearish)
Daily Chart: Upward regression channel (Bullish)
Weekly Chart: failure to close above resistance Zone! (Neutral)
Monthly Chart: failure to close above resistance Zone! (Neutral)
Conclusion:
Neutral to Bearish is the most probable scenario for the short term!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
There’s no such thing as the goose lays the golden egg forever!“There’s no such thing as the goose that lays the golden egg forever.” – Jim Simons
I have noticed most people just try to find evidence that justifies their point of view, but there may be other contrarian views that are more objective!
Bitcoin could not hold above its All times high and cross below 60K once again!
I think this sine wave regression analysis should be considered for the next 100 days..!
13 days ago, I mentioned this :
This show will become interesting after October 25th, 2021..!
Data that fits a sinusoidal regression curve tends to fluctuate over time in undulating or wave-like curves. For example, temperatures from year to year tend to undulate in a sinusoidal pattern. Sinusoidal waves are also commonly seen in signal processing and time series analysis.
use this formula
y~asin(bx+c)+d
a:11045.5
b:0.0328144
c:1.46343
d:44570.7
I want a guy who knows enough math so that he can use those tools effectively but has a curiosity about how things work and enough imagination and tenacity to dope it out.
Jim Simons
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The Most Probable Scenarios for Solana..!Let's look at the Solana price pattern from different angles, and see what possible price patterns we can find
Scenario 1: A Double Top: Bearish
Scenario 2: A Sine wave sideway: Neutral:
Scenario 3: A bullish Upward channel, rejection from the top border: a possible correction to the lower border in the coming days: Bearish
Scenario 4: A bearish Bat harmonic pattern: Bearish
Scenario 5: a flat Top: Neutral
Scenario 6: a finished 5 wave cycle:
Scenario 7: decreased volume as price goes up, possible return to 160 level:
Conclusion:
Moving toward 160 is more probable than breaking above 215 in short term..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The father of all SAGAsThe DWAC price tag of 175 in 2 days, is way above AMC and GME saga..!
and it pushes all other social media stocks into the red zone!
Trump vs Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, and Snapchat
But everyone knows how it will end!
Best
Moshkelgosha
Trump change the rules of the game..!It seems no matter where he is going or what he does, Donal Trump is the one who defines the rules..!
Please do not ask about the price target of this SPAC!
It can go anywhere, at the time of writing this analysis its premarket price is 86 while yesterday's close was 45, and 2 days ago it was 10 USD/share.
The question is this :
What would be the potential future of this social media and network?
Donal Trump has at least 74.2 million votes in the past election which could be the minimalistic number of his followers!
He has lots of followers in other countries as well, and his social media could provide a voice to those who feel they got censored on other social media like Facebook and Twitter.
I believe if his team manages to deliver a good platform they will have more than 200 million users easily in the first few days or weeks.
I think Trump needs this platform to unify his base for the 2024 election!
We should keep in mind, someone like Robert Mercer is one of the biggest Trump supporters..!
Robert Leroy Mercer (born July 11, 1946) is an American hedge fund manager, former principal investor in the now-defunct Cambridge Analytica, and computer scientist. Mercer was an early artificial intelligence researcher and developer and is the former co-CEO of the hedge fund company Renaissance Technologies.
I am sure no matter what is happening, Trump will be the one who benefits from this the most..!
This story has just begun..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
Where could be the next support level?It seems Paypal could go down more and may find a support level at 225.
Trading 6x more than the average 10 days volume and losing more than 10% in 2 days is not usual..!
Last 2 days volume looks like a big investor is closing his position!
900, what next?This is the 3rd time tesla has experienced the 900 level..!
1st time, before the stock split after that, crashed to 350,
2nd time, January 2021, then crashed to 540,
and 3rd time, Today..!
In January the average monthly price volume was above 38 billion dollars per day, Now it is 15 Billion dollars a day which is 60% lower..!
How far it could go?
Depends on Elon Musk Decision to sell his options which is going to expire early next year!
Do not forget when Kimbal <usk sold his shares at 856, the price tanked to 540!
Apple at a critical resistance level!When the price goes higher but the price volume sinks, it is always a bad sign.
Apple needs more energy to pass above 150.
Consolidation or correction could be the most likely scenario in the next week unless we see a huge breakout above 150with high volume!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The next 6 days..!If we consider the close price as the most important price, I believe few people could imagine Bitcoin crashing from 63565.46 on April 13, 2021, to 29786.83 in 98 days..!
On the other hand, crossing above the all times high in 90 days was not easy to predict as well..!
In 6 days, this Bitcoin cycle ends, but let’s see if it works retrospectively?
It seems it could be considered as a cyclical pattern..!
What do you think about the next 98 days cycle?
S&P 500 at the Resistance!This is a very important level, breaking above it may accelerate further climbs and rejection may lead to another leg of correction!
We should monitor this level closely.
The fundamental drivers of higher levels: Inflation, Good earnings, and Good job data are supporting higher levels.
However, news from Washington about government proposed bills and China news could drag down down the market once again.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A 3-5% correction is likely in the next 5-10 days!n these charts, you can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days!
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Hourly Chart: Double Top (Bearish)
Daily Chart: Double Gravestone Doji and confirmation bearish candle at the upper border of the bullish channel (Bearish)
Weekly Chart: crossing above resistance level after 3 years (Bullish)
Monthly Chart: crossing above major resistance level 77 after 7 years. (Bullish)
Conclusion:
Short-term 3-5% correction is highly likely.
The long-term is still bullish unless the USOil price gets back below 77 and stays there.
Inverse Oil ETF SCO (2x) May provide a 5-10% gain opportunity in short term:
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Critical level for Ethereum In these charts, you can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days!
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Hourly Chart: Upward regression Channel(Bullish)
Daily Chart: Consolidation below the resistance level. (Neutral)
Weekly Chart: Below its major resistance level! (Neutral)
Monthly Chart: Just at the resistance level. (Neutral)
Conclusion:
(Bullish)
Breaking above 3970 could push the price toward 4400 in less than 1 week!
But first, the breakout should happen!
Sine wave Pattern of disney..!Entry: 170.6
Stop loss:169
Reward/Risk:5.5
Target range: 179.5
Time Frame: 2 wks
Possible gain: 5.42%
Possible loss: 1%
Pozition size: 5% of trading capital
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Amazon could experience a new all time high in the coming monthsTwo of the most profitable investment of the past 2 decades are Amazon and Netflix, with mind blowing 229K % and 59K % gain..!
These two companies have a significant positive correlation :(last 2 trading year 500 candles):
Why this correlation could be important?
NFLX breaking above its consolidation area 2 weeks ago:
It would be highly likely AMZN follow the same price pattern because of the mentioned positive correlation!
My last AMZN analysis:
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Keep Qualcomm on your watchlist for a possible breakout..!Price action to:
-123 as an important support level.
-Lower border of downward channel and bounce back perfectly
Now QCOM is at the upper border of the downward channel and a possible breakout is imminent..!
My most recent analysis:
Oct13,2021
Entry: 125.5
Stop loss:122.15
Reward/Risk:2.95
Target range: 135
Time Frame: 4wks
Possible gain: 7.66%
Possible loss: 2.6%
Position size: 5 % of trading capital
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Qualcomm (QCOM) designs, develops, and supplies semiconductors and collects royalties on wireless handheld devices and infrastructure based on its dominant position in CDMA and other related technology patents.
Pfizer could be a low risk play at this levels..!Pizer reacted to 200 EMA as well as one of the most important support levels(green line) and just gets out of the downward regression channel.
I think it is highly likely we see higher prices in the coming days.
My yesterday analysis: (it was not published publicly):
Entry: 41.55
Stop loss:40.92
Reward/Risk:5.03
Target range: 44.55
Time Frame: 2Wks
Possible gain: 7.635
Possible loss: 1.52%
Position size: 5 % of trading capital
This is a trade opportunity before the next earning call
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly..!I have always tried to make whatever I learned better and move it to the next level. However, I always have not been successful.
With respect to all who publish their analyses on the platform, I would like to define my definitions of a good, a bad, and an ugly technical analysis.
A Good Analysis:
Must have certain features, including but not limited to:
1- Objective, Clear to understand, and actionable.
2- Looking from different angles and timeframes.
3- Considering alternative scenarios based on past data and updating hypotheses based on new changes.
4- Defines Entry, Target, Stop, and Risk level.
A Bad Analysis:
Any analysis which lacks some or all the features of good analysis could be considered as bad analysis.
The worst mistake an analyst could make is to consider only one scenario and thinks that his own viewpoint is the only correct one!
An Ugly analysis
Any analysis that lacks objectivity and consists of these sentences:
-Will go to the Moon
-Will fly to the Moon
-... to the Moon.
These must be considered as cruel seductive traps that try to fool others for publishers' gain.
Now I would like to review My S&P500 analyses in the past 8 weeks:
Aug 22, 2021: Editors' Pick
The Magical 50 days Exponential Moving Average (50EMA)
Aug 24, 2021:
What is "witching" and why is it quadruple?
Sep 2, 2021:
The market does not like long weekends..!
Sep 8, 2021:
Breaking down a movement
Sep 9, 2021: Editors' Pick
Rounding Top or More correction is coming..!
Sep 20, 2021: Editors' Pick
How likely a Reversal is?
Sep 22, 2021
S&P 500 Corrections, Similarities and Differences
Oct 4, 2021:
S&P 500 and raising the debt ceiling by October 18, 2021
Oct 12, 2021:
Anything can happen at any time in the market!
Oct18, 2021:
Moving toward 4545 will be a bumpy road..!
Now let's look at an Alternative Scenario:
What was my action plan for S&P 500 analysis:
buying SPXU at 15.17
I invite everyone to see how gathering data and considering different factors can lead to making profits out of negative markets!
Do not forget, it is easy to make money in bull markets and everyone feels like Wolf of the Wall Street.
But,
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. Warren Buffett.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
