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Moshkelgosha

BABA and a potential double BottomBABA reached the same price level at a very lower volume. Harmonic: Market Cap: 425 B Shares Outstanding: 2.7B Average Trading Volume (10 days): 21M Shares Short: 49.8M Short Interest(%): 1.82% Days to cover: 2.2 Change in Short Interest:+8% Ownership Breakdown: Institutions: General Public: Hedge Funds: Individual insiders: Sum: Option profile: Total OI: Put Call Ratio: 0.67 Put OI: 397k Call OI: 534 K Highest Put:220 Highest Call:200 Max Pain: 190 Open Int (30-Day): 3.95 M DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BABALong
by Moshkelgosha
5
Tesla Just Finished its PullbackTesla was trading in a bullish channel (August 17 - September 10, 2021) On September 10th, crossed the lower border with high volume and today tried to get back into the channel and failed. Now let's review my last 2 posts: 1 hour ago: Tesla runs out of Steam..! TSLA got out of the bullish channel and today is about to finish its pullback(753-756). I believe above 755 could be a good opportunity to short tesla. (Buy put options) put 755, September 17, below 10 USD could be a good opportunity. 2 weeks ago: Tesla Option trade in September *Put 755, September 17 today's lowest price 10.20, currently trading around 14. +35% in one hour..! DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
What is "witching" and why is it quadruple?The goal of this article is to provide information about how option and futures contracts trading could influence stocks and indexes without meaningful change in fundamentals. Do you see any relationship between S&P 500 corrections and Quadruple Witching date? I believe in the past 18 months 5 out 6 Quadruple witchings had meaningful relationship 3 of them is very obvious! What is "witching" and why is it quadruple? In folklore, the "witching hour" is a supernatural time of day when evil things may be afoot. In derivatives trading, this has been colloquially applied to the hour of contract expiration, often on a Friday at the close of trading. On quadruple witching, four different types of contracts expire simultaneously: listed index options, single-stock options, index futures, and stock futures. When does quadruple witching occur? Quadruple witching usually occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, at market close (4:00 pm EST). Why do traders care about quadruple witching? Because several derivatives expire at the same moment, traders will often seek to close out all of their open positions in advance of expiration. This can lead to increased trading volume and intraday volatility. Traders with large short gamma positions are particularly exposed to price movements leading up to expiration. Arbitrageurs try to take advantage of such abnormal price action, but doing so can also be quite risky. What are some price abnormalities observed on quadruple witching? Because traders will try to close or rollover their positions, trading volume is usually above average on quadruple witching, which can lead to greater volatility. However, one interesting phenomenon observed is that the price of a security may artificially tend toward a strike price with large open interest as gamma hedging takes place. This can lead the price to "pin" the strike at expiration due to this sort of trading activity. Pinning a strike imposes pin risk for options traders, where they become uncertain whether or not they should exercise their long options that have expired at the money, or are very close to being at the money. This is because, at the same time, they are unsure of how many of their similar short positions they will be assigned on. Conclusion: We can use this data to find the seasonality of the market! This could help us make better decisions especially in the weeks leading to Quadruple witching. moshkelgosha Reference Article: www.investopedia.com
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
11
Breaking down a movementMy goal is to help others see the reason behind my analysis and hopefully they learn something new or at least review what they already know I believe to be successful in the analysis regardless of the timeframe you should breaking it down to pieces and manage it piece by piece: 1- A bull trend is a period of time in financial markets when the price of an asset or security rises continuously. 2- A sideways trend is the horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of supply and demand are nearly equal. This typically occurs during a period of consolidation before the price continues a prior trend or reverses into a new trend. A sideways price trend is also commonly known as a "horizontal trend." 3- A breakout refers to when the price of an asset moves above a resistance area, or moves below a support area. Breakouts indicate the potential for the price to start trending in the breakout direction. For example, a breakout to the upside from a chart pattern could indicate the price will start trending higher. 4- A pullback is a temporary reversal in the price action of an asset or security. The duration of a pullback is usually only a few consecutive sessions. ... Pullbacks can provide an entry point for traders looking to enter a position when other technical indicators remain bullish. 5- Resistance occurs where an uptrend is expected to pause temporarily, due to a concentration of supply. Reference Articles: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com Now let's review my trading setup published last week:
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
Win Big and Lose Small storyAugust 2021, was one of the best months for me. While Major indexes (NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000) gained between 1.5-4 %, I had 8 analyses with a 10-73% gain in one month, those which hit stop loss made 1- 4% loss..! I also trade BABA option twice and close them with +180 and 100% profits..! and had 2 unsuccessfull trade with -30% loss (use 3% of my capital for each trade) I publish this review to talk about one of the most important habits(strategies) in trading. Novice Trader Story: Season 1: In the middle of a bullish market, FOMO: Fear of Missing Out Episode 1: Before Trading Journey Started Many people and friends share their experience of making profits trading cryptos and stocks on their social media, why should not I give it a try??? Episode 2: Trading Journey Started Opening the trading account, installing the app, transferring the money, and the gate of a multi-trillion dollars world are open now! Episode 3: Pushing the first buy button Welcome to the journey of trading, a journey full of adrenaline for novice traders! Episode 4: Making the first profit It feels like I am the wolf of wall street! Those who entered the market after March 20, 2020, think making money in the market is the easiest thing in the world. From a statistical point of view, it is very unlikely to made loss between March 2020 and February 2021. Episode 5: Market become less inefficient In a trended market (inefficient market) most tickers are positive on most of the trading days..! so making money is more probable than loosing it even for novice traders! Problems start when corrections start, novice traders start changing their positions to find the bullish tickers that gave them the same good feeling. They do not know market behaves in cyclical patterns and they experience multiple corrections by chasing for the best bullish movees. Episode 6: Fear of Loss after a couple of bad experiences, they decide to cash out the profits as soon as they see any, no matter how little it is..! Episode 7: Vicious Cycle Novice traders now experience the killing phenomenon of losing big in the hope of making reversals and wining small in fear of losing their small profits. Episode 8: blowing up the trading account There is not much left to lose! After the trading account becomes smaller and smaller, it is time to go all-in. Usually, it does not work..! Episode 9: what should I do now Novice trader is now addicted to trading and can not stop trading, so decides to recharge the account..! Episode 10: start over Novice Trader 1: Keep doing the same thing over and over again, the same result over and over again (majority) Novice Trader 2: Start learning about the market (reading books, courses) and keep trading, better results but making lots of mistakes because of not having a fully defined strategy. Novice Trader 3: Stop trading and back to normal life, an insightful decision for many people if they make it..! Novice Trader 4: Stop trading, start learning, and promise themselves not to start trading unless they have a fully defined strategy with good backtesting results. (less than 5% of all people) Nash Equilibrium: What Is Nash Equilibrium? Nash equilibrium is a concept within game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is where there is no incentive to deviate from the initial strategy. More specifically, the Nash equilibrium is a concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one where no player has an incentive to deviate from their chosen strategy after considering an opponent's choice. Overall, an individual can receive no incremental benefit from changing actions, assuming other players remain constant in their strategies. A game may have multiple Nash equilibria or none at all.(Investopedia) What Is a Zero-Sum Game? Zero-sum is a situation in game theory in which one person’s gain is equivalent to another’s loss, so the net change in wealth or benefit is zero. A zero-sum game may have as few as two players or as many as millions of participants. In financial markets, options and futures are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs. For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who loses.(Investopedia) Conclusion : Traders can make decisions and hurt themselves if they deviate from their main strategy based on Nash Equilibrium. Most Important Question any trader should ask her/himself: What is my strategy to make money in the market? How I can make it better??? Refrence: 1- UPST: 2- AFRM; 3-ROOT: 4- PLTR: 5-AMC: 6- COIN: 7- GME: 8- BABA: 9- SPRT:
NYSE:AMC
by Moshkelgosha
3
Is it wise to trade bitcoin or Ethereum at these levels?As you see in the charts after the flash crash bitcoin has entered a sideways price pattern. closing below the lower half in the past five days shows a lack of steam to move higher. At this point, trading bitcoin is not recommended! waiting for a trend to form is the best approach in my view. The same story is true for ETH DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
1
Rounding Top or More correction is coming..!My goal is to deliver Real-time Learning opportunities in the market for avid learners and to back my analysis with educational articles. What Is a Rounding Top? A rounding top is a price pattern used in technical analysis. It is identified by daily price movements, in particular the tops, which when graphed, form a downward sloping curve. Technical analysis of price information suggests that a rounding top may form at the end of an extended upward trend and that this price pattern may indicate a reversal in the long-term price movement. The rounding top pattern can develop over several days, weeks, months, or even years, with longer time frames to completion forecasting longer changes in trend. The duration of the pattern may take months or sometimes years to coalesce. Investors should be aware of the potentially lengthy timeframe necessary to realize a full downturn in price. Understanding a Rounding Top A rounding top pattern is similar to that of an inverse saucer pattern. It is also similar to and may occur coincidentally with, a double top or triple top price pattern. The main point of recognizing the rounding top pattern is to anticipate a significant change in trend from upward trending prices to downward trending prices. Recognizing this kind of a change can allow traders to take profits and protect themselves from buying into an unfavorable market, or strategize to make money from falling prices by short-selling. The rounding top pattern has three main components: A rounding shape where prices trend higher, taper off, and trend lower; An inverted volume pattern (high on either end, lower in the middle of the pattern); The support price level is found at the base of the pattern. Generally, a rounding top will also represent a bearish future outlook for security. However, investors should be cautious when following a rounding top as support for the security’s price can occur causing several rounding tops to follow in a double top or triple top pattern. What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick? A spinning top is a candlestick pattern that has a short real body that's vertically centered between long upper and lower shadows. The candlestick pattern represents indecision about the future direction of the asset. It means that neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand. A candlestick pattern forms when the buyers push the price up during a given time period, and the sellers push the price down during the same time period, but ultimately the closing price ended up very close to the open. After a strong price advance or decline, spinning tops can signal a potential price reversal if the candle that follows confirms. A spinning top can have a close above or below the open, but the two prices are always close together. What Is a Gravestone Doji? A gravestone Doji is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed when the open, low, and closing prices are all near each other with a long upper shadow. The long upper shadow suggests that the bullish advance at the beginning of the session was overcome by bears by the end of the session, which often comes just before a longer-term bearish downtrend. Now let's review the February example: Reference Article: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
Editors' picks
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
39
Should you trade inside bars?What Are Inside Days? Inside days refer to a candlestick pattern that forms after security has experienced daily price ranges within the previous day's high-low range. That is, the price of the security has traded "inside" the upper and lower bounds of the previous trading session. It may also be known as "inside bars." Inside days may indicate consolidation or lower price volatility. Inside days can be indicative of indecision in the market for security, showing little price movement relative to the previous trading days. Trading with technical tools like candlesticks is a highly specialized practice and therefore, must be done carefully. Spotting inside days is of interest to a trader because he may believe that the subject security is setting up for some sort of move up or down. As you see in the chart after Flash crashes in Bitcoin it is quite common to have inside bars! I believe in consolidation patterns (sideways) I would be better not to trade! because in this situation market becomes efficient and predicting prices movements become harder! Reference Article: www.investopedia.com
BITMEX:XBTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
Liquidity Cascade, Whale Effect or a bigger Scheme???In this 5 minute chart, you can see CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BITMEX:XBT CURRENCYCOM:ETHUSD FTX:SOLUSD KRAKEN:ADAUSD . This level of coordination couldn't be Liquidity Cascade or Whale Effect. What is it? I could not find an evidence base reason for it but this phenomenon is so big and fast that could not be Algorithmic trading of institutions or retail traders or what so ever..! I checked the 1-minute chart as well : It seems there is a superpower that overrules all other players..! I am 100% sure this is not the last time this phenomenon happens and it will be repeated again very soon, in less than 100 days..!
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
7
3rd Flash Crash in the past 6 monthsA flash crash is a very rapid, deep, and volatile fall in prices occurring within a very short time period. What are the Red Flags in Bitcoin Chart? 1- Bitcoin lost more than 15% of its value in 2 hours..! 2- 30 days gain washed out in a couple of hours..! 3- January 2021, Bitcoin was 30-33 K, and 72% of the total cryptocurrency market cap belong to Bitcoin at that time. Today it is decreased to 42%. 4- Bitcoin Experienced weakness in the past 3 months rebound in comparison to total cryptocurrency market cap. 5- When flash crashes like this tends to repeat frequently, it puts a very big question mark in front of investors and those who think long-term. 6- It seems people are searching for the next bitcoin and retail traders tend to invest and trad Altcoin much more. In conclusion, If you are a trader cryptocurrency market offers lots of opportunities because of the high volatility. but the question: Are you ready to handle this level of volatility??? Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
BITMEX:XBTShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Tesla Option trade in SeptemberI believe Tesla will be hoover around 700-750 fore a while and its option trading profile confirms this situation as well..! Market Cap: 728 B Shares Outstanding: 990 M Average Trading Volume (10 days): 16.4 M Shares Short: 26.8 M Short Interest(%): 2.7% Days to cover: 1.2 Change in Short Interest: -10% Ownership Breakdown: Institutions: 44 General Public:37 Hedge Funds: Individual insiders: 19 Sum: 100 Option profile: Total OI: Put Call Ratio:0.83 Put OI: Call OI: Highest Put:700 Highest Call:750 Max Pain: 700 Open Int (30-Day): 4.5 M But the game will be much different after September 2021..!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Moshkelgosha
4
Market became Less "Inefficient" in the past few days!Looking at the price pattern of the biggest companies in the market (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, FB, TSLA) and the major indexes (S&P500 and NASDAQ 100) clearly shows Bulls and Bears power is reaching a new equilibrium. after a Bullish rally that pushes prices higher in August 2021, we see multiple candles with small bodies(Doji) in the charts and prices went sideways in the past few days. In a situation like this, the best decision could be being patient and waiting for breakouts. Red lines: show the most important resistance levels, closing above these levels will enhance higher prices. Green lines: show the most important support levels, closing below these levels will enhance lower prices. Please be careful, crossing above or below these levels could be what we call a "Trap" in price patterns. “This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.” David Tepper
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
Bitcoin or Altcoins?April 2020 - April 2021 : Total outperform Bitcoin by 27% April 2021 - September 2021: The gap is still 27% Now let's look at Total 2 and compare it with Bitcoin: April 2020 - April 2021 : Total outperform Bitcoin by 660% April 2021 - September 2021: The gap is 60% This comparison clearly shows people tend to invest and trade altcoins..! while Total2 is approaching its all-time high, bitcoin is 25% below its All-time high..! The story for Ethereum is different! DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
1
Price action trade example..!Price action describes the characteristics of a security’s price movements. This movement is quite often analyzed with respect to price changes in the recent past. In simple terms, price action is a trading technique that allows a trader to read the market and make subjective trading decisions based on the recent and actual price movements, rather than relying solely on technical indicators. Since it ignores the fundamental analysis factors and focuses more on recent and past price movement, the price action trading strategy is dependent on technical analysis tools. Tools Used for Price Action Trading Since price action trading relates to recent historical data and past price movements, all technical analysis tools like charts, trend lines, price bands, high and low swings, technical levels (of support, resistance and consolidation), etc. are taken into account as per the trader’s choice and strategy fit. The tools and patterns observed by the trader can be simple price bars, price bands, break-outs, trend-lines, or complex combinations involving candlesticks, volatility, channels, etc. Who Uses Price Action Trading? Since price action trading is an approach to price predictions and speculation, it is used by retail traders, speculators, arbitrageurs and even trading firms who employ traders. It can be used on a wide range of securities including equities, bonds, forex, commodities, derivatives, etc. Price Action Trading Steps Most experienced traders following price action trading keep multiple options for recognizing trading patterns, entry and exit levels, stop-losses and related observations. Having just one strategy on one (or multiple) stocks may not offer sufficient trading opportunities. Most scenarios involve a two-step process: Identifying a scenario: Like a stock price getting into a bull/bear phase, channel range, breakout, etc. Within the scenario, identifying trading opportunities: Like once a stock is in bull run, is it likely to (a) overshoot or (b) retreat. This is a completely subjective choice and can vary from one trader to the other, even given the same identical scenario. Now lets review my yesterday published analysis: Wells Fargo may rebound soon! Buy call 43, September 3, at 85-90 cents, target: 2 - 2.5, stop loss 60 cents. Outcome of the trade: +100- 120% gain closed today! this is the power of technical analysis and using this tool correctly reference article: www.investopedia.com
NYSE:WFC
by Moshkelgosha
8
The Next 3 Extravagant Weeks ahead..!I believe there is a rational correlation between extravagant price moves like what happened in GME, AMC, and recently SPRT spiral and quadruple witching dates! These types of price moves are strange and unexplainable phenomena for newbies..! Let me explain why this phenomenon happens: Stocks with high short interest are often very volatile and are well known for making explosive upside moves (known as a short squeeze). Stock traders will often flock to such stocks for no reason other than the fact that they have high short interest and the price can potentially move up very quickly as traders with open short positions move to cover. 1- What Is Short Interest? Short interest is the number of shares that have been sold short but have not yet been covered or closed out. Short interest, which can be expressed as a number or percentage, is an indicator of market sentiment. Extremely high short interest shows investors are very pessimistic (potentially overly pessimistic). When investors are overly pessimistic it can lead to very sharp price rises at times. Large changes in the short interest also flash warning signs, as it shows investors may be turning more bearish or bullish on a stock. (1) 2- What Is Quadruple Witching? Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Quadruple witching is similar to the triple witching dates, when three out of the four markets expire at the same time, or double witching when two markets out of the four markets expire at the same time. (2) By now you should have a clear vision about these unexplainable prices movements! I believe with good timing we can use this information to make money extravagantly..! I checked multiple resources and this is a watchlist of the stocks that may experience the squeeze phenomenon in the next 2-3 weeks! www.tradingview.com Be careful this types of price movements have some criteria: 1- They do not last long 2- They tend to be volatile (intraday) because of Algorithmic trading involvment. 3- They experience large Gaps 4- There is a risk of entrapment (look what happened in SPRT on Friday) 5- You have to be careful with volume, they usually experience a trading volume of more than 100% of the total outstanding share! 6- Monitoring the change in short interest is key to success, huge change could be considered as last day! 7- This rationale could explain the reason behind many "Wall Street Bets" moves! for more information please read my related articles: Max Pain or Short squeeze? Is there hidden rationality beyond irrationality? What is "witching" and why is it quadruple? Reference Article: 1- www.investopedia.com 2- www.investopedia.com
NYSE:AMCEducation
by Moshkelgosha
14