Get started

Moshkelgosha

Time or Theme?Which one is more important in investing? Theme or Time??? This question may seem ridiculous to those who benefited from Thematic investing between 2014-2020. Investing in the Tech (growth) stocks in the past decade made many a fortune. Those who invested in EV makers in march 2020 and got out before February 2021, made a fortune equal to the past decade of those who invested in the best Tech stocks. Those who invested in biotechnology companies like Moderna or Novavax also made a fortune in a year more than those who invested in the biggest Tech companies a decade ago. The coin has flipped since February 2021: Let's compare big techs as the winners of the past decade with big banks which are the winners of 2021: Tesla Best performance in companies with +100 Billion USD Market Cap: almost 2400% gain in 83 weeks. (June 2019- Jan 2021) Tesla Worst performance in companies with +100 Billion USD Market Cap: -11.5% (YTD) (Biggest position in ARk invest ETFs) On the other hand, big financial institutions like Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Charles Schwab, and Morgan Stanley had a terrible performance between 2010-2020 became the champions of companies with the best performance in 2021. These 5 are among the top 10 companies with the highest performance in 2021. Wells Fargo: was a horrible investment with a -22% performance between 2010-2020. (Warren Buffet was a major shareholder) Wells Fargo: The second best performance in companies with +100 Billion USD Market Cap in 2021: +63% gain in the last 5 months. (Warren Buffet closed his position in Wells Fargo after 30 years before this happened) Lessons to learn: 1- Timing in investing is a more important factor than Theme..! 2- Hot growth stocks will not stay hot forever..! 3- Even titans could make miscalculations 4- You can benefit from investing in any asset by choosing the right time to open and close the position. 5- Boring stocks can become hot in the future! 6- Money circulates in the market to find the best opportunities, Follow the money, you will never regret it. Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Moshkelgosha
8
Money Flow Matters..!2014 - 2019: NASDAQ:TSLA price ranged and no significant change in money flow. 2020-2021: Significant change in price due to significant change in Money flow. (numbers are billion dollars) November 2020 - January 2021: in January prices keep going up but the average weekly trading value decreased 20%. February 2021: Tesla lost 40% of its market cap In this presentation, you clearly see how money flow caused a boom and when it stopped and reversed the price followed it ..! It would be interesting for you to know tesla was performing better than any other company with a +100 Billion dollar market cap in the past 10 years! But in 2021, tesla with -14% YTD performance is the worst performed company..!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Moshkelgosha
2
No one will bailout the crypto market..!The cryptocurrency market regained half of what it lost in the past few weeks! But it is still 860 billion dollars below its all-time high! (-33%) After losing more than 53% of its total market cap in 2 weeks, investors will hardly trust the cryptocurrency market as a store of value! Don't forget the people who put their money in the crypto market in 2021 are ready to exit with limited loss! and those who took their profit out of this will not come back at these levels! Educational Articles: 1- Making Money The Wyckoff Way: www.investopedia.com 2- Bubble www.investopedia.com
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
US dollar at the most important support levelUS dollars experienced a horrible year. Money printing policies have made the US dollar weaker and weaker in the past year! If you check the futures contract, Agriculture, Metals, Energy...etc. everything became strong in comparison to USD but Rice and Cocoa..! Isn't it funny??? Today's candle could be a sign of reversal! but looking at a bigger timeframe shows how critical these days are! Monthly chart: the last 13 years! what do you think? which scenario could be the case? Stronger or Weaker US dollar in the next 15 months??? Moshkelgosha
TVC:DXY
by Moshkelgosha
2
Sweet, Sour, Bitter sweetStocks, Sector, and Indexes make the Market! At any timeframe, we may see some movement in different stocks, or sectors in contrast with others and that is the nature of the market that money circulating to find the best opportunity. Let's review the market performance in different time frames and see if we can find a meaningful trend. 5400 Ticker (Stocks & Depository notes)are traded today: Weekly performance: 3238 positive (60%) Monthly performance: 2183 positive (40.4%) 3 Months performance: 2629 positive (48.6%) YTD performance: 3317 positive (61%) 6 months performance: 3715 (68.7%) Yearly performance: 3755 (69.5%) Based on the data provided, if you look backward you see more stocks with positive performance! In a bullish market, this should be the exact opposite! But something has been changed 3 months ago(February 2021), the front runners of the market (EV makers) bubble started the deflation phase since then, and many growth stocks did the same! Money has shifted toward value stocks and now we see they barely move! The most important part to analyze is this week with 60% positive performance! I believe the most probable case is this week is a part of correction after 4 negative weeks in NASDAQ, and it will not survive long. Why do I think so? Because I do not see any increase in the trading volume..! Please check the market in the past 50 years and see what happened whenever prices going up at lower volumes! I believe it is time to forget the sweet times you had from March 2020 to mid-February 2021. Those days have been past and a new reality rules the markets! For instance: Tesla has the highest average daily trading value(2.3-2.4 trillion/month USD trading value in 2021)in anytime frame during the past year followed by Apple (1.2-1.3 trillion USD/month trading value in 2021). Surprisingly these two companies have the worst performance among 87 companies with over 100 billion dollar market cap! If you are ranking companies with over 100 Billion dollars market cap based on their performance in 2021: Tesla with -14.3% ranked 87 out 87 companies with over 100 billion dollar market cap..! Apple with -4.36% ranked 81out 87 companies with over 100 billion dollar market cap..! The question is why this happened to companies with the highest daily trading value? The answer could be : The market is in the profit booking stage since February 2021! And this is the last stage before the deflationary phase..! You can not say new investors bring money into these stocks and at the very same time prices went down! What do you think could be the reason? Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
9
"The Hero of Haarlem"Elon Musk's behavior reminds me of the story in the books of elementary school. "The Hero of Haarlem" The story is about a Dutch boy who saves his country by putting his finger in a leaking dike. The boy stays there all night, in spite of the cold, until the villagers find him and repair the dike. Elon the hero of the crypto...! Elon Musk made a tactical miscalculation..! he tried to make money out of his 55 million followers on Twitter by manipulating the crypto market. He did not know he was digging a hole in the Trust Dam, and when this happens, you can not bring back the trust of the crowd! Once you lost it, you lost it forever..! You can gamble on almost anything, but life and trustworthiness..! Man, you are smarter than that, the hole in the cryptocurrency market is so big that even if you put your head in it you cant save that..!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Moshkelgosha
7
Everything Bubble could be the case..!How possible is another Bullish rally??? To answer this question let's review some important fundamentals. In the next few paragraphs, I will use a great article about Bubble by Investopedia and provide a real-life example and let you judge at the end. Since everyone could have misconceptions about certain issues, please feel free to write your contradicting views and help me learn from your ideas. What Is a Bubble? A basic characteristic of financial bubbles is the suspension of disbelief by most participants when the speculative price surge is occurring. ( My view: Almost everyone thinks there will be another Bullish rally soon. Check box number 1: filled) Bubble, in an economic context, generally refers to a situation where the price for something—an individual stock, a financial asset, or even an entire sector, market, or asset class—exceeds its fundamental value by a large margin. Financial bubbles, aka asset bubbles or economic bubbles, fit into four basic categories: stock market bubbles market bubbles credit bubbles commodity bubbles Let's evaluate them one by one! A: Stock market Bubble: I would to like use Buffet Indicator, The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. The Buffett Indicator was at elevated levels before the dotcom crash of 2000 to 2002, and before the financial crisis of 2008, but at respective values of 137% and 105%, lower than today's reading of 158%. (check box 2 filled) Sector Bubble: Some sectors like EV makers, green energy stocks, AI, Aerospace, and cryptocurrency-related stocks have been in a deflationary state since 3 months ago. (check box 3 filled) B: Market Bubble: Cryptocurrency market : After a +2300% gain in less than 14 months just lost 50% of its market cap in less than 2 weeks! (check box 4 filled) C: Credit Bubble: Margin debt stands at $847 billion highest number in the last 10 years..!(check box 5 filled) US Published National Debt:+ 28 Trillion (+133 Trillion is an alternative reality which means 855k/Taxpayer) (check box 6 filled) D: Commodity Bubble: Agricultural futures: everything is up between 10-303% in the past year. (check box 7 filled) Energy futures: everything is up between 53-111% in the past year. (check box 8 filled) Metals futures: everything is up between 9-92% in the past year. (check box 9 filled) The five steps in the lifecycle of a bubble: 1- Displacement 2- Boom (March 2020- February 2021) 3- Euphoria (February-April 2021) 4- Profit-taking (April- May 2021) 76% of stocks trading below their relative volume which means no new money coming to the market. (check box 10 filled) 5- Panic (Not started yet) Another concerning factor is the sharp drop that happened after earnings in most stocks! No need to say Gold started a new rally and seems it has no intention to correct in the past 2 months. Most importantly, I believe I have discovered a mathematical way to calculate the last stage of any bubble with acceptable accuracy..! Those who follow my work know it is not a baseless claim. I will provide some example: 1- EV makers Bubble: NIO was 57 2- Bitcoin: was 64-62 Based on my calculation: It is highly likely that we experience another round of sell-off by the next 4 weeks or sooner! I provide atleast 10 reasons for my bearish case, I would like to know what are your reasons for another Bullish rally? Cryptocurrency Market: Margin Statistic: U.S. Published National Debt: www.truthinaccounting.org Bubble: www.investopedia.com
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
12
NASDAQ in two different timeframe..!20 years ago, . com bubble happened because of a Thematic investing. This time it happened based on another thematic investing, Green Energy, EV makers, Biotechnology and Genomic, AI, Autonomous Driving, and 5G. These technologies will shape the future, no doubt. But if you invest your money in companies which losing money and have not enough cash on hand to burn, you should be ready for the worst case scenario! These two chart are ridiculously similar..! Don’t forget timing is an important factor in investing..! Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Latitude Mode in the Last 11 days..!The Final Stage before Crypto-Bubble burst, February 28 to May 2021: You may argue I'm wrong and soon there will be another bullish rally by one of Elon Musk's tweets! I'm challenging @elonmusk to bring 1.3 trillion US dollars back to cryptocurrency or shut his mouth and not talk about cryptocurrency anymore! I'm 100% sure he is not able to do that...! Fools are panicked and they have activated the "Latitude Mode". They are taking out their money at least 6.5 times faster than they brought it into your dirty game! I was screaming as loud as I can but no one listens, but few..! or or or or or or The question for me is: will Bitcoin price be a 4 or a 3 digit by the end of 2021??? Moshkelgosha
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Moshkelgosha
16
Game Over...First of all, I want you to think about these sentences: A: Anything can happen in the market at any time. B: If something happened once, it is more probable to happen in the future..! If you think the above sentences are wrong don't bother yourself to read the next paragraphs. What Is a Bubble? Bubbles are the suspension of disbelief by most participants when the speculative price surge is occurring! In the case of Bitcoin, it is a 3 million percent (3,000,000 %) gain matured in the last 11 years..! 5 Stages of A Bubble 1. Displacement: A displacement occurs when investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology! The cryptocurrency, Bitcoin was born 21st May 2011: When a risk-taker accepted to give 2 pizzas (something with intrinsic value) to someone and received a token (10000 Bitcoin with 0 intrinsic value) that had no idea about it. All the Currencies from the beginning of history were born whenever two parties accept using them to finalize a transaction. 2. Boom Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market, setting the stage for the boom phase. During this phase, the asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of investors and traders into the fold. 3. Euphoria During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase as new valuation measures and metrics are touted to justify the relentless rise, and the "greater fool" theory—the idea that no matter how prices go, there will always be a market of buyers willing to pay more—plays out everywhere. 4. Profit-Taking In this phase, the smart money—heeding the warning signs that the bubble is about at its bursting point—starts selling positions and taking profits. 5. Panic It only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot inflate again. In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. Investors and speculators, faced with margin calls and plunging values of their holdings, now want to liquidate at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply. I believe in the next 10-11 years it would be hard to find another risk-taker who is willing to give you 2 pizzas for 10000 Bitcoin. Don't Forget I did the hardest Job and find the exact day..! Moshkelgosha Educational Article: www.investopedia.com
BITMEX:XBT
by Moshkelgosha
4
The Glorious Days of ARK Invest has been passed...I have published many short analyses on ARKK, and other funds managed by ARK Invest and Cathie Wood. Some people may think I have personal problems with her or ARK Invest, but this is not true. I do research and analysis in the financial markets since 12 years ago. I started this when I was a 4th-grade medical student. Since I was, and I am a bookworm, it wouldn't be a false claim if I say I have read more than 100k pages of books and financial articles in the past 12 years! (my best record ever is reading a 680 pages book in less than 2 days) My favorite Topic in the financial world is Bubbles and the different stages of their development. Why financial bubbles are so attractive? Because bubbles are the real game-changers! They create new generations of millionaires and billionaires while making many broke! I believe Bubbles are a "Zero Summation" game. From beginning to end no real value is created during any financial bubble! Those who get on board in the primary stages of any bubble will be the winners if they are not greedy and take the primary capital out of the trade at right time! These people are not average investors, and usually are less than 1% of the investors' population. I believe ARK invest did a great job between March 18, 2020, to February 16, 2021. ARKK their flagship fund made +305% in profits in less than 11 months! 3 times more than Russell 2000, 4 times more than NASDAQ, 6 times more than S&P 500 and Dow jones! From a financial point of view, this is one of the best performances ever, no doubt. They achieved this in one of the best bullish rallies ever, the second-best in the last 35 years, after that 9 months from June 1999 to March 2000 when NASDAQ experienced a +140% growth. Do you know what happened after that? NASDAQ corrected more than 83% in the next 31 months, in the financial world it is called the ".com bubble" since then. NASDAQ Performance in the last 35 years: NET NET Fund an Example of "Thematic Investing" 24 years ago It would be interesting for you to review the NET NET fund story between 1997 and 2000. The NetNet Fund, which is focused on Internet stocks, for three years rode the tech bubble into the stratosphere and ballooned from about $10 million in assets in 1997, a year after its inception, to about $12 billion when Munder closed the fund in April 2000. Could ARK Invest be the next NET NET fund? I believe to answer this question we should review their portfolio management when the market went south. For instance: A: ARKK Feb 19th 2020 - March 18th 2020: B: ARKK Sep 2018 - Dec2018: C: ARKK Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 I think it would even be better to look at a bigger picture and check the ARKK performance from start in October 2014 to February 2021: The bright side +668% gain in the first 6 years. (76 Months) The dark side: losing 40% of whatever they had achieved in the past 6.5 years in the last 4 months: By now you must know that she and her "Thematic Investing" project is in very very big trouble! Although she successfully managed to manipulate the market using the power of social media in the past 6 years, she forgot that this only works in a Bullish market. Usually, when bullish markets reach their ends, they start correction from the most ballooned assets! In our case, you can check EV makers and Biotechnology companies! Most of them corrected more than 50% in the past 4 months! For instance Tesla and Crisper, you can find here stories about how promising the future will be for these two companies: Tesla: lost 39% of its value in the past 4 months: Crisper: lost 56% of its value in the past 4 months: I think I provide enough examples to show that the ARK Invest management team has very good performance in bullish rallies but they have no skill to manage their fund during previous corrections in the market! In the above example, you see during the past major corrections they always underperform and correct more than all four major indexes. Things will become more interesting when you notice she invested 99.72% of the available cash, and she hopes for market recovery! The top 10 holdings of ARKK with almost 50% weight, have lost their value between 18-52% in the past 3 months! If you patient enough to read this article you must know I provide evidence for all the claims! In conclusion, I believe ARK Invest did not invest in the growth stocks because they believe in the future of these companies, they invest in these companies because they knew they were able to sell their stories to inexperienced investors using their pyramid social media networks and on the top of all Youtube! The very same method used by Elon Musk in the cryptocurrency market using his Twitter account and Chamath Palihapitiya using SPACS...! Don't forget the author of this article warned everyone about 1- EV makers correction as early as February 18th, 2021: 2- Bitcoin Crash as early as April 13th, 2021 when it was 63.8K: 3- Tesla correction as early as February 17, 2021: 4- ARKK correction February 22, 2021 5- The cryptocurrency market crash on May 14, 2021, exactly 72 hours before it happened. ( I updated my status on all my social media and TradingView and warned about the Whole Cryptocurrency Market will Crash soon) Moshkelgosha
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
6
A Trillion dollar washout…Total cryptocurrency market: -39% Bitcoin: -43% Total cryptocurrency market excluding Bitcoin:-41% CRYPTOCAP:ETH These numbers show, whole cryptocurrency market is in deep trouble. I believe cryptocurrency market need more than a trillion dollars to gets back to its previous levels! The most probable case is more than 95% of +4000 cryptocurrencies out there will become worthless (zero in value) in the next 3 to 5 years less than 1% will survive the next 10 years! Don’t forget as soon as prices getting a little higher there will be many people ready to cut their loss or exit offset! Currently I’m searching to find the next bubble! What could be the next? Those who find the answer, will be the winners of the next decade..!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Moshkelgosha
8
This is not a correction, this is a Bearish trend!While many people still believe in bitcoin, I believe the bullish rally has ended on April 13, 2021. Many of you may heard the historical transaction of Laszlo Hanyecz, who infamously traded 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas on May 22, 2010. While many consider those pizza as the most expensive pizza ever, I believe they were actually the cheapest pizza ever! Because the person who ate them, pay for them by creating 10000 bitcoin just by clicking! Who knows maybe in the next 11 years you can buy only 2 slices of a pizza with 10000 bitcoins! Sound ridiculous today, but if it happened once it could happen once again! Don’t forget, Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies have ZERO intrinsic value! 400 years ago, people had Tulip mania, at the beginning of the 19th century they had Hyacinth, and today they have cryptocurrency mania! Bitcoin went down 27% in 11 days in April, in May it has lost 49% of its value in 11 days, which means the going down process is accelerating! If you think I’m insane, review these:
BITMEX:XBTShort
by Moshkelgosha
6