Oil Forecast in the coming days and weeks!Possible scenarios:
1- retest the lower border of the channel and 50EMA.
2-Breaking below the channel test previous low(A)
3-Retest the previous support at 85.
Closing above 117 makes this analysis obsolete!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Moshkelgosha
A Sniper Grade Trade Execution..!I chose the SniperTrader nickname to remind myself to execute killer trades you should behave like a Sniper..!
Sit patiently in shadow, evaluate your target behavior, let it come to your fire range, and pull the trigger..!
The Story of March 20, 2022:
Entry: 2875
Stop loss: 2765
Reward/Risk: 3.41
Target range: 3250
Time Frame: 1-2 wks
Possible gain: 13%
Possible loss: 3.8%
Position size: 5 % of trading capital
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
The preparation:
March 9, 2022:
March 17,2022:
Updating Stop loss in the resistance Zone to 3100 which triggered and made 7.8% profit in 5 days..!
Educational point: Patience Pays off if you execute at the right time..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Re-Distribution or Accumulation that is the question???Let's observe charts the way Wyckoff looked at them:
Analysis of supply and demand on bar charts, through examination of volume and price movements, represents one of the central pillars of the Wyckoff method.
Wyckoff's third law (Effort versus Result) involves identifying price-volume convergences and divergences to anticipate potential turning points in price trends.
To answer this question we need to get help from the volume of QQQ:
Analysis of supply and demand on bar charts, through examination of volume and price movements, represents one of the central pillars of the Wyckoff method.
Wyckoff's third law (Effort versus Result) involves identifying price-volume convergences and divergences to anticipate potential turning points in price trends.
My observation:
Possibly we are in the AR zone..!
Why?
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short-covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR.
The last upward move happened just before the Quadruple Witch on March 18, 2022, and since the market was down constantly before it, it makes the short-covering rally justifiable..!
*March 15, 2022 recommendation:
Recommendation:
Be careful if you have had shorted the market, realize the gains and wait ..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The past 6 days..!Looking at the past 6 days' rate of change we can compare it only with the early stage of the post-pandemic rally in 23-30 March 2020.
It reminds me,
Wyckoff:
The Composite Man carefully plans, executes, and concludes his campaigns.
The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.”
I believe we are going to get back in the downward channel between the green lines soon!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Is this a good idea to short apple now?AAPL is in a downward trend since January 4th, 2022!'
Although AAPL could go down another 10% in the coming weeks, I believe this is not a good place to short it just before the Quadruple Witch(March 18th).
Education:
If you detect a Downward regression channel try to open a short position in the upper half or at least near the midline..!
The biggest problem with many traders is:
They divide the market to Buy/Sell or Long/Short, but they should know there is "No Trade Zone" as well..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
* I have a long position.
Tesla Short term vs Longterm..!This week:
1- Upper border of a downward regression channel..!
2- AB=CD harmonic pattern target 945
3-Resistance :935-950
Conclusion: Moving toward 950 and correct to 850.
After that:
It is possible to move toward 1200 once again..!
Tesla has been and will be full of surprises..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
New oil forecast for the next 10 days..!After a sharp 107% move in 67 trading days, oil price experienced a 28% decline and now is back at 50EMA..!
This move has other interesting features as well:
1- Back to the upper border of the broadening pattern:
2- Back to the price action support zone :
3- Retracement to 50% Fibo:
4- AB = BC correction pattern:
And the real reason behind the Drop:
China is facing its worst COVID crisis since early 2020, and China is the biggest oil importer in the world and consumes 25% of it..!
Trading/Investing in 2022 is like walking in a minefield..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Quiz..?A quiz is usually a short test and often doesn't have a huge impact on your grades as a test has. But this one could have a huge impact on your portfolio..!
I provide the chart and the cheat sheet.
For more help you can look at my previous analysis as well:
or
or
You like to learn more, read this article:
www.investopedia.com
Question:
How you can make money out of this analysis?
Write your answer in the comment section
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
New 52 weeks high..!Technical: breaking above 52 weeks high will open a new horizon for further increase in price..!
Fundamental: Crack spread is now twice more than average of the Q4,2021..!
I am confident Valero will make more money in Q1 2022 than all four quarters of 2021 combined.
there will be a huge gap in price after the next earnings..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
* I have a long position.
Betting against ARKK is my speciality..!Tuttle Capital did a great performance of +102% since November 9th, 2021..!
This result will shine more when you compare it to the -19.58% return of NASDAQ 100 in the same timeframe..!
I believe after a slight pullback, it will be among the winners of 2022..!
Reading this could be fun:
At the Dynasty Financial Partners' 2021 Investment Forum, Wood shared her thoughts to Bloomberg:
"This is what makes a market, right? I never worry about anyone shorting the stocks underlying Ark or with this new ETF, because if we are right, they are going to have to cover their shorts and that will be another source of demand for the stocks in the future. I like skepticism, and I feel much better when there’s a good give and take."
What if they were right???
ARKK is now -57% underperformed in comparison to NASDAQ 100 since inception in 20115..!
It is very unlikely that ARKK survive 2022..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Why BABA jumped 50% in 3 days..!Let's look at the mechanism that leads to this phenomenon
1-Short Covering Trades
2- Short Squeeze + Gama Squeeze just before Quadruple Witch, it was top rank on Wallstreet Bets in this trading week.
3- Market Makers: Max Pain: 113 which means market makers are the winner of this game..!
Do not forget:
A: BABA is still 65% away from its all-time high..!
B: Still moving below 50EMA
C: It moves in a downward trend
Soon you will find out the difference between a bullish trend and Covering Shorts..!
I have covered all these topics a couple of months ago..!
Is there hidden rationality beyond irrationality?
Max Pain or Short squeeze?
What is "witching" and why is it quadruple?
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reversal or Pullback that is a question???It seems Oil and Gold listened to the FED's chair speech yesterday and find their support ..!
History showed during the high inflation era, Energy and Gold outperformed..!
OIL:
Higher oil prices contribute to inflation directly and by increasing the cost of inputs.
There was a strong correlation between inflation and oil prices during the 1970s.
Oil's potential to stoke inflation has declined as the U.S. economy has become less dependent on it.
Oil prices exert a greater influence on producer prices because of oil's role as a key input.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his semiannual testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March 2022 that, as a rule of thumb, every $10 per barrel increase in the price of crude oil raises inflation by 0.2% and sets back economic growth 0.1%. (Investopedia)
GOLD:
Investors have long been enamored by gold and the price of the metal has increased substantially over the past 50 years.
Like most commodities supply and demand is incredibly important, but gold also retains additional value.
Government vaults and central banks comprise one important source of demand for the metal.
Investment demand, especially from large ETFs, is another factor underlying the price of gold.
Gold sometimes moves opposite to the U.S. dollar because the metal is dollar-denominated, making it a hedge against inflation.
Supplies of gold are primarily driven by mining production, which has leveled off since 2016.
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
* I have a long position.
What is going on in Small Caps?After successfully predicting a 10-15% decline in Russell 2000 now we need to look at it once again..!
I think the top of the orange box could be a strong resistance level and the relief rally will be ended there..!
Also, this could be the SOW part of Wyckoff model:
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NIO at the begining of a new era..!This is NIO weekly chart which clearly shows the long-term outlook!
with the current trend, 20-15 could be possible in the next few months!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes( Mark Twain)If you want to have a good forecast, you need to calculate all the possibilities ..!
A comparison between 2008 & 2022:
A Comparison between 2000 & 2022:
My Observation:
1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%.
2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce back 23% in the next 3 months and then go down 50%.
Conclusion:
We can be in the early Bear market and go up in the next 8-12 weeks, very similar to 2000 and 2008 bear markets..!
Recommendation:
Be careful if you have had shorted the market, realize the gains and wait ..!
Educational points:
1-Always look at the previous behavior before making a new forecast and taking action..!
2-Always consider all possible scenarios..!
3- Re-evaluate your positions..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A perfect example of Bearish Bat patternAs you can see in the weekly charts Gold has made a bearish bat pattern and has reached the first target..!
Further correction in the high inflation era is less likely..! do not count on the 2nd and 3rd targets..!
Always consider the probability of something happening, and Keep in mind nothing is impossible in the market!!!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A fundamental approach to Valero..!What Is a Crack Spread?
A crack spread refers to the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it.
A crack spread is the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it.
The price of a barrel of crude oil and the prices of the different products derived from it are not always in sync, leading to the spread in prices.
The difference in prices is important to oil refiners as it can impact their profit margins. (Investopedia)
What Is Operating Margin?
The operating margin measures how much profit a company makes on a dollar of sales after paying for variable costs of production, such as wages and raw materials, but before paying interest or tax. It is calculated by dividing a company’s operating income by its net sales. Higher ratios are generally better, illustrating the company is efficient in its operations and is good at turning sales into profits. (Investopedia)
Now let's look at the correlation between Crack Spread and VLO gross profit:
Based on my calculations the next income of the first quarter for Valero could be more than all 4 quarters of 2021 combined..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Chinese Stock sinking ..!I believe this process will not end soon, do not try to catch a falling Chinese knife..!
Charlie Munger has tried this with BABA and I do not think he is happy with his decision!
Consider this:
What would happen if China and Taiwan situation escalate..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A False trend and how you should trade it..!Most of Cathie Wood's followers were playing in the kindergarten or elementary school playground when she underperform the market in 2008.
According to Alliance Bernstein documents, she had -46.72% net return and -45.12% pure gross return in 2008..!
Interestingly, Positive alpha over every annualized time period (10-year alpha: 2.4%)
Cathie Wood on her way to break the record of 2008:
ARKK -44.48% YTD return and -58.32% YOY return is like a punch in the face of its investors
I strongly recommend reading George Soros books it will help you to make money in all types of markets..!
One year ago on March 13 20211:
Reference:
www.alliancebernstein.com
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The Worst 3 months since 2008..!This chart shows the rate of change in the past 3 months..!
The closet market performance in 3 months was Oct-Dec 2018 with a -17% return..!
The question is how would it continue?
Similar to 2008? or 2000?
the worst 3-month performance was -38.53 Sep-Nov 2000 and the second-worst was -36.68 Sep-Nov 2008, the 3rd on so far is Jan-March 2022.
What would be your choice?
A: 2008
B: 2000
C: None
Your answer/action would have a significant effect on your investment in the coming months..!
*This is a monthly chart, and we have another 14 trading days left..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Are you ready to repeat 2008..?I am not like those clowns who use rocketships and invite you to the Moon,
But,
I warn you from getting whipped out,
and I started doing this many months ago..!
the gates of recession will be open sooner or later..!
Macroeconomy in simple words:
Higher inflation, Higher rates, lower spending will lead to a Recession..!
If you have doubt review these (My analysis in the past few months):
1- Inflation May 2021:
2- Gold April 2021:
3- NASDAQ 100, November 2021:
4- Oil Feb 2022:
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
A cup of Refinary..!When I published my analysis on March 7th, the price was 86-87..! I mentioned a 46% opportunity in less than 6 months..!
2 Trading days after that,
Bank of America increase its price target for Valero from 107 to 135..!
I believe there will be an exceptional Q1 earning at the end of April..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
* I have a long position.
An Important Observation for Option Traders..! Market GapsAll traders have noticed the change in the market behavior in 2022..!
This a market like you never have seen before..!
This is the second-worst start of the year for US equities in 123 years.
For context, the -11.9% drop in the first 44 trading days in 2022 is only rivaled by the 1920 Great Depression and the Great Financial Crisis.
(MacroAlf, Author of The Macro Compass, a free newsletter delivering financial education, macro insights & investment ideas.
Former Head of a $20bn Investment Portfolio.)
Now, you might realize the reason why your old rules might not work..!
What Is a Gap?
A gap is an area discontinuity in a security's chart where its price either rises or falls from the previous day’s close with no trading occurring in between. Gaps are common when news causes market fundamentals to change during hours when markets are typically closed, for instance, an earnings call after-hours. (Investopedia)
In 2022, 14 out of the past 45 trading days Nasdaq 100 has opened with a gap bigger than 1%..!
Interestingly, the number of the Bullish and Bearish gaps are equal, 7 for each..!
How significant this could be???
There was not a single Gap bigger than 1% in 2021..!
Conclusion:
Do not hold your option position overnights..!
The chance of losing all your premiums is high..!
It applies to those who use statistics to trade, gamblers can do whatever they want as usual..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.