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Moshkelgosha

100% transparency: My Monthly Performance for Long Ideas..!If your position were equally in size (as recommended) your monthly outcome should be +6% if you took all the trades! Position size recommended for all trades was 5% of the trading capital: 6% * (0.05%) = +0.3% you may think it is not good but when you compare it with market performance in January 2022 it will shine..! In January 2022: S&P 500: -6.06% NASDAQ: -10.31% DOW JONES: -4.25% Russell 2000: -10.74% Compare the result with the celebrity fund manager at ARK: All their funds lost 21-23% of their value in 1 month..! These ideas were not published publicly..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BABALong
by Moshkelgosha
1
Bitcoin forecast for the next 3 weeks!With the current momentum, it is highly likely BTC will retest the 30K zone in less than 3 weeks! Keep in mind this is a 3 weeks forecast and there will be some positive days in between that could be used for day traders! There is a slight chance BTC retest the 45-46K level in the next 7 days and then slips away! However, the probability of having more red days is higher! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. *You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
BITMEX:XBTShort
by Moshkelgosha
7
Comparing NDX, SPX,DOW and RUT in post pandemic crashA comparison between NDX, SPX, DOW, and RUT in the post-pandemic crash clearly shows, Nasdaq and S&P 500 may soon follow the Small caps and enter Bear market ! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
Bear Market is official for Small Caps ..!What Is a Bear Market? A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.(Investopedia) 21% decline in the past 12 weeks makes Bear Market in Small-cap official..! I think there is no need to say it was in my 2022 Forecast published on January 4th, 2022! Conclusion: 1-The Energy and Banks sector could continue their rally in January 2022..! 2-Tech stocks especially those which still burn cash, will experience a hard time in 2022, and any positive must be considered as transitory! 3-Small caps may experience lower prices and even Negative returns in 2022. 4-SPX, NDX, and DJI could have 10-15% returns in 2022. 5-Keep in mind that 12 monthly rates of change decreased by half in the past 10 months for SPX , NDX, and DJI which means expected market ROI should be lower in 2022 in comparison to 2021 and 2020! 6-For small caps this phenomenon is even worse, they lost 85% of their gains, and continuation of this phenomenon could lead to a negative return in 2022. ( Fundamentals also support depreciation of unprofitable business in high inflation era) 7- 2022 will be the year for those who know how to handle high volatility! A year for aggressive portfolio management strategies! I will provide updates for this analysis as needed. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUTShort
by Moshkelgosha
6
Is BABA still bearish?Let's first review the facts: 1- Moving in a Downward channel for more than 400 days! 2- Rejection from EMA50 today 3- Option wall data: 100-130 in the next 4 weeks! I think it is very unlikely to see BABA out of the bearish channel soon! These types of moves are the result of mean reversion traders! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. *You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!(Based on Option wall data) **Yellow line Shows Maximum Pain level. ***You can see more details and educational materials by reviewing the previous posts!
NYSE:BABAShort
by Moshkelgosha
17
All the bubbles are bursting one after the other..!Some people think I am Stubborn Some think I am Arrogant Some believe I am Lucky But I know I am not here to listen to these things..! I started this to shine a light on the bubbles and I think I did my job: I really feel proud that I started publishing a short analysis for NIO when it was 57, ARKK when it was 143, etc. I strongly recommend all the traders to read George Soros's book "The Alchemy of Finance". I can hear GROWLING BEARS coming and please do not try to fight back..! This is a recommendation of a man who did these analyses: NIO: DOCU: RIVN: WKHS: Luna: AMD & NVDA: TSLA: MSFT: VIAC: ARKK, ARKG, ARKW, ARKF, Print, ..etc Ethereum: I may not know anything but I know the difference between the Bullish and bearish trends! If you have doubt, check all my new analyses, never publish a bullish idea after January 2nd, 2021, close the trade on January 11th, and then just published a short analysis since then! My specialty is to detect bubbles, do not forget even a decent business may become overpriced for a while! I like to finish this George Soros quote: “The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.” So equities have the chance to become undervalued as well..! I will review this in a couple of weeks (months)..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:NIOShort
by Moshkelgosha
30
Jerome Powell Effect "FOMC", QT vs QEEveryone knows that Fed was wrong about inflation and they admitted in late November 2021. So there is no guarantee that they do not make other mistakes! Now the question is: Are they going to hit the brakes or just ease off the gas pedal..??? QT vs QE: Quantitative tightening (QT) (or quantitative hardening) is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease the amount of liquidity within the economy. The policy is the reverse of quantitative easing (QE), aimed to increase the money supply in order to "stimulate" the economy. They are about to turn off the "Pump" I'm confident whatever they decide to do will not create a new manic phase..! depression however is likely..! My December 16, 2021 analysis: For many there is a question: What did happen yesterday? THE answer is, FOMC or what I like to call the Jerome Powell effect! Some newbies think it is just Elon Musk that could move the market with his words, and that is not just true! While the total cryptocurrency market cap is 2.25 trillion dollars (much lower than Apple with 2.94 or Microsoft 2.5 trillion market cap), The total market capitalization of the U.S. stock market is currently $48.5 trillion dollars (9/30/2021). No need to say the US stock market is 22 times bigger than the crypto market and the daily dollar value of trades is also 25-50 times bigger than the crypto market! Big money Listen to Jerome Powell..! What is the FOMC meeting? The Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy for the U.S., and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the committee that decides how to manage monetary policy. The FOMC meets eight times a year to debate interest rates, and vote on policies. Having said that, you can see the volatility of the market increase around FOMC and it could cause a lot of surprises! But if you're ready for such events that increase market volatility you can benefit from it a lot..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Moshkelgosha
5
Does Warren Buffet know what others do not??? I remember when I read an article about Warren Buffet sitting on 128 billion dollars cash at the end of 2019, I asked myself: What is about to happen? The pandemic-related crash happened in the following 2 months! Now, he is sitting on a bigger amount of cash. According to Bloomberg, he is sitting on 149.2 Billion Dollars in the era of the highest inflation rate in the past 30 years. The question is: What is about to happen? Looking at the charts, we can see the triple top formation in the BRK.A chart. A triple top is formed by three peaks moving into the same area, with pullbacks in between, while a triple bottom consists of three troughs with rallies in the middle. While not often observed in everyday market trading, triple tops and bottoms provide a compelling signals to technical traders for trend reversals. In addition to chart shapes portraying the letters "M" or "W", trading volume trends should also be employed to confirm the strength of the signal.(Investopedia) While Warren Buffet who is investing in money-making companies cuts his exposure to the market significantly, do you think it is a good time to invest? your answer to this question will be critical in the next 3 months! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. Reference article: www.investopedia.com www.bloomberg.com
Editors' picks
NYSE:BRK.AShort
by Moshkelgosha
127
Be on the right side of change. Tuesday, Jan. 25 ARK sumitBe on the right side of change is a fancy title for an investment company that lost 23-25% of the value of their 4 main funds in the past 16 trading days! No need to say that these funds had lost 17-34% of their values in 2021. I think it is crucial to be on the right side of the change, otherwise...! One of my favorite Youtubers is Ozzy man, he has a series called Destination F..! It is a compilation of failures, he usually says: Someone is definitely ending up in destination F regarding their employment status over this. (being on the wrong side of the change) Market sentiment has changed a lot and those who are on the right side of the change are sitting on piles of cash or shorted the market..! Each candle shows 1 year.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
Paypal vs BlockPYPL and SQ are among the biggest fintech companies! PYPL P/E: 38 SQ P/E: 109 I think both have the potential to have a P/E ratio below 20..! If you are looking at price volume it clearly shows in 2021 they had experienced a huge decline of 16% and 46% which means lower ambition to invest in these companies in comparison to 2020! Soon they will be double digits! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:SQShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
NetflixThe story of Netflix will be repeated in all Tech stocks..! If you are looking at the performance of FANGs you can see that storm has just begun! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Moshkelgosha
11
Amazon will slip to Bears' Claws in 2022..!Ater 7 bullish years, AMZN has experienced a -16% decline since 2022..! It doesn't look like a bullish year and if AMZN goes down another 4% Bearish trend will be official! -30% decrease in Price volume in 2021 in comparison to 2020 clearly shows AMZN is not considered an attractive investment anymore! P/E 55 has a lot of room to correct in the high inflation era and slowed economy ..! Do not forget MacKenzie Scott promised to sell all her shares! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
Trend is your friend until it bends..!I have never seen a correction stronger than the main trend..! In the past 4 trading weeks, all the gains of the second half of 2021 have been wiped out..! I know a little about Macro and Fundamental as well: Let's look at some old school metrics: NASDAQ100 PE Ratio: 25.33 S&P 500 PE Ratio: 24.82 (Mean: 15.96),(Median:14.88),(Min:5.31),(Dec 1917) ),(Max: 123.73(May 2009)) I believe markets are far from being attractive at this moment and usually, it happens after the bull run is finished! It might be a bold prediction, but the market PE ratio tends to reverse to its mean like many other trends! This means either profit should increase or securities' prices decrease 40%..! In this high inflation era, the cost of everything is going up, Labor, Borrowing money, commodity ...etc! So the second scenario which is a 30-40% correction in the coming weeks (months) is more likely to happen! Now you realize why Waren buffet Piled up 150 billion dollars by the end of 2021, and Micheal J Burry has sold 94% of its portfolio..! Buffet indicator: SPX Since Warren Buffet is not a generation Z favorite, I asked them to think about Elon Musk's reply to a tweet a few days ago that most startups will not survive the next recession..! If you are thinking about opening a long position, please consider this bold contrarian view! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
Do you know how hard is to revrse a 55% decline?I have written more than 20 analyses on ARKK since 2021, none were Bullish! I even compare it to the NET NET fund during the .com Bubble..! To all those who are loyal to ARK, now you need +122% to get to the same level Of February 2021..! This number will be increased to 200-300% in the next 2 months which makes it almost impossible! The celebrity fund manager will soon be overthrowing..! It pretty much smells like 2008..! Reviewing the comments below my previous ark post will be fun these days..! I might have limited knowledge about the market, but I'm confident that I understand 2 things: 1- Bubble 2- Turning points Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
on which scenario are you going to bet?Based on the current momentum, I rather bet on the 1st possibility and keep in mind that 2 could be the alternative! How about you? Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:SQQQLong
by Moshkelgosha
4
Shopify sinking..!if SHOP has lost 50% of its value in 42 days, do not be surprised if it lost another 30% from current prices in less than 1 month! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:SHOPShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Single digit Palantir..!PLTR could cross below 10 soon! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:PLTRShort
by Moshkelgosha
8
A bol forecast for Meta..!Based on my calculations Fb could go down another 9-13% by the earnings! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Moshkelgosha
Google forecast for this week!Another 5% decline is highly likely for this week! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by Moshkelgosha
A forecast for the next 2 weeks!Another 5-10% correction is highly likely for Microsoft in the next 2 weeks! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Apple new forecast!Based on my new calculation 10% decline could happen in the next 2 weeks! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
EBAY outside the 1 year bullish channel!eBay lost its bullish channel after 13 months! It could go down to 60 and lower ..! Unless it get back to the channel! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:EBAYShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
Forecast for the next 10 days..!I published my first ever Luna analysis when it was 99.77, and it was a short idea: with 100% time and price accuracy: Now it is time for a new forecast..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
LShort
by Moshkelgosha
4