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Bitcoin could see $37.5KBitcoin (BTC) is set for a “bigger move” as soon as next week, fresh analysis says as volatility faces a breakout situation. In its latest market update, trading suite Decentrader told readers that the time would soon come to “pull the trigger” with liquidity as BTC price action goes up or down. Analyst on BTC: "The bigger move is coming" Bitcoin has been making lower highs and higher lows throughout this week as a descending wedge on lower timeframes sees volatility ebb. Such a situation cannot last forever, and for Decentrader’s Filbfilb, it has a matter of days left to run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by destlefttowell
Gamestop - MOASSIdea for GME: - The MOASS is here. - There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral. - CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by Europe. "the ECB bough too much , reducing net supply via QE, and it topped it up with TLTROs... This week, the collateral shortage in Europe spilled over into the FX swap market: on Tuesday it became cheaper for a euro deposit holder to pay a premium and swap euros for dollars and buy Treasury bills with those dollars than to buy German bills." - While I won't go into it, it is speculated that Citadel has a great short exposure to 10-year US Treasury bonds, through their repo market arm, Palafox. May or may not be true, but it is evident that someone (probably every hedge fund) is short USTs and they are also short GME. GME by extension is a bond market volatility proxy. As long as the correlations hold, it can be traded. - What is also true is that Large and Small speculators are record short 10 Year T Note futures, while commercials are record long. Bond market volatility is reached a level where VIX was trading at 50+ previously and is higher now than what it spiked to during GME's first squeeze to 500. Somebody is about to get to get blown up. Bond Market Options Volatility (MOVE) leads GME by 15 days. Timing of MOASS, Dec.3: GME losing correlation with IWM and gaining correlation with VIX and USTs (new regime): You might get one more smash down (I expect a smash in bonds in a risk parity event before a squeeze), but I am confident this is about to happen. I'm not even going to give a price target, but it's over 4 digits for certain. When I did analysis for my AMC trade, I correctly read the psychology of the large market participants, after reading into it more and connecting the dots, turns out they were BlackRock and Citadel: If you are short GME, do you even know who is on the other side of your trade? Retail "apes"? No no no! BlackRock, who manages the US assets of foreign sovereigns, and ICBC China, with a 100% correlation to GME. China is about to enter an easing phase: GLHF - DPT Causation always produces a correlation. Liquidity takes time to flow through the economic machine.
NYSE:GMELong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
Volatility - Convergence, Reverse Calendar SpreadIdea for VIX: - Spot VIX sub 17 (quickly rising), 2 point spread has appeared between spot VIX and front month, with a high degree of contango in term structure, and a significant spread between Treasury volatility (MOVE). - Daily Roll Yield 0.10~ - Possible to either capture spread, or have a low risk bullish bias. - Positive correlation right now with Vol and Equities. High demand. Strategy: - VXX-VXZ spread, reverse calendar spread, front month-spot (ES or spot VIX options) spread. - Front month VIX, spot hedged (ES or spot VIX options). GLHF - DPT
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
3