November 3, 2021 GBPJPY 4 HOUR 50 MAI have been leaning towards a MA retest strategy that has been panning out pretty well these past few months.
Here is a setup from a trade last week. I primarily look for candles closing at the 4 hour closes and also around the 1 hour closes around the NY session open.
There are three MA's I use. The 20 MA (blue), 50 MA (red) and the 200 MA (gold). Not only does the candle have to close on the 20 or 50 MA but the moving averages must be lined up.
I use the 4 screen layout. The daily chart on the top left, 4 hour on the top right, 1 hour on the bottom left, and 15 min on the bottom right.
A) IF Price closes on the 4 hour 20 MA, I need price to also close on the 50 MA on the 1 hour, and the 200 MA on the 15 min. This is my Moving Average Correlation Strategy.
B) IF Price closes on the 4 hour 50 MA, I need price to also close on the 200 MA on the 1 hour.
C) IF Price closes on the 1 hour 20 MA, I need price to close on the 15 min 50 MA, and 5 min 200 MA.
D) IF Price closes on the 1 hour 50 MA, I need price to close on the 15 min 200 MA.
These are the primary correlations I use to trade. I also check the daily, but I find more setups with the above for IF, THEN criteria. Remember, the moving averages must be ALSO positioned correctly.
From here, I wait for a candle stick confirmation. I will either get in an engulfing candle on the 50 MA or the 200 MA.
TRADE ABOVE:
In the above chart, the 50 MA is above the 20 MA and price is in a downtrend. < This is how we would expect these 2 MAs to be positioned. I would not look for a short IF the 20 MA is above the 50 MA. Next is the Moving Average Correlation between timeframes.
When price closed at the 50 MA on the 4 hour, price ALSO closed on the 1 hour 200 MA matching scenario (B).
I traded this at the next 4 hour close showing an engulfing candle. 10 times out of 10 a RR of 4 typically hits, I close at Daily Resistance and Daily Support levels.
Does anyone else trade this way? Is this your first time seeing this? Please respond so I know I"m not the only one here. Looking for all of your feedback!
@MDFX_TRADES
Moving
100k incoming! 155 day moving average bottom and top cap modelUsing Logarithmic Regressions and the 155 day moving average as a floor... and top cap model for a max, we can see the range that BTC is bounded by. As a supply shock is hitting Bitcoin, I am expecting a break through the $100k mark by year end.
#BTC #Bitcoin #100k #LogarithmicRegression
CRO is pullbacking, long term potential!Hello!
It seems we have met a new resistance @ 0.365 after a strong bullrun since 1st November.
After watching the RSI at 80 overbought area, Price is probably gonna dip again to either 0.29 or around 0.33 (previous ATH) for bulls to come in again and push it further up!
If it however crosses the resistance level we might see even further increase, and this coin is on fire right now.
I believe strongly in this company and its products for especially long term investment, i've been holding on to it for over a year now.
I also believe 1 Dollar price is not too far if it continues like this!
Buy the Pullback as shown in the chart (0.29 - 0.33).
Happy Trading,
Small correction for BTC/USDT | Big Pump AfterwardsGreetings,
In the chart you will see the slogan "history repeats itself" depicted on the price of BTC/USDT.
Bulls are taking profits since the second pump of the price of the mother of cryptocurrencies.
This is taking the price downwards but that doesn't need to scare us.
The second wave is incoming as the bulls are accumulating while the bears are selling.
This process is taking the price downwards to the green area marked as "Buy zone after correction".
Once we reach the green by zone, the price will see a pump of around 50%-60%.
After the third pump we will see All time highs for BTC.
This is not a financial advise as it's my view for the price of BTC. Never trade without making your own analysis and be smart when it comes to money.
$KNX: Another leg higher for this trucker post infrastructure?KNX is setting up here with a really nice long term base, cracked the 50 level last week. Was that the level it needed to make another move higher? Time will tell. Following IYT as well and the possibility of it bottoming, if it does, we should see significantly higher prices here
simple but effective XRP/USDTXRPUSDT look super bullish and right now it is taking off for the TPs . if you have entered this trade you can keep an eye on it but if you didnt you can wait for a better moment.
Chart Training with Jay Rhyder - MA SignalsHello and welcome to a small series I thought I would start to help people understand market charts. Enjoy and leave me a comment about what you liked or didn't like. Thank you for your support!
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Take a look at this chart. It is a 1 hour Coinbase chart of Ethereum (ETH/USD).
One of the best ways to understand if the market is going to rally or go south is to pay attention to the MOVING AVERAGES, or MA lines. As you can see, the white line on this chart is the 50 day, the dark purple one is the 200 day and the pink one is the 150 day moving average, respectfully. When you see the 50 day moving up like in this chart, and the 200 day on top of the 150 day, it is a bullish signal.
The opposite is true for bearish markets. It is called a DEATH CROSS. It is when the 50 day is on the bottom of the 150 and 200 and the 200 day is on top of the 150 day moving average. When the 200 day crosses DOWN through the 150 day, it is called a DEATH CROSS and is a very, very bearish signal.
If you have any questions about this short and concise tutorial, please leave your question or comment below. I hope you learned something from this short tutorial. My name is Jay - have the best day!
:)
Dangerous Call On The WeeklyBeware of the 100ma and 200ma that are about to cross. I know that Moving Averages are so called "Lagging Indicator', but see it for yourself. This could turn even more bearish and might confirm the actual bearish bias even more. This does not mean it stays that way for another 2 years, no. This is just what we have to expect after the long bullish trend we had until May, and as a matter of fact it just confirms the Major Correction Phase , or just call it an accumulation phase before we head straight to Mars.
Get Ready To Accumulate More SHIBSHIB is currently by far one of my favourite coins. I don't have that much, but it's a good amount to be happy.
Anyways, let's take a look on the MACD and STOCHRSI. The Daily and Weekly do not have enough valid Data Points to give us any hints where we are and where we are going, but what we have on the 4h is a strong indication that we might head down to the deep to the 0.786 FIBB Area. This is where SHIB might bottom out and take us to the next moon levels. and where I'm going to set a huge buy order. Moving Averages are looking quite alright, but EMAs need to recover and turn into a bullish bias. I do not expect to see SHIB getting rugged in any kinda way, since this project is very popular now among Dogecoin Fans and Dog fans in general.
Beyond FoMo... Speculation.Beyond Meat is breaking out of a Bull Flag and is at the bullish 50 & 200 day ema crossover point. If the price can break through and stay above the strong 170 resistance area for a couple weeks this could confirm a bullish long term trend. Although there needs to be a considerable increase in volume to make this happen.
Watch out for a "Fakeout" above resistance which could have high volatility like on Jan 26th
A covered straddle option strategy is useful in a scenario like this when the price could move up or down quickly.
The RSI is looking weak, the price could move down after getting rejected at a resistance point and remain in the pennant shape for many more months until it makes its major move out.
Make sure to be aware of the overall market conditions while trading and avoid over leveraging in risky setups.
EDUCATION - Moving Average Trading Tutorial ⚡⚡What is a Moving Average?
In technical analysis, there’s an indicator called moving average which calculates the average closing price over a set period of time. If the market is too choppy, often a moving average can help smooth things out and provide a clearer visual of what’s going on in the market and an indication as to where the momentum is whether it’s a bear market or a bull market.
How is moving average calculated?
A moving average is calculated by calculating the closing prices and then divided by the set number of days e.g. 100 day moving average takes into account the closing prices for the last 100 days and then divides it by 100 to give you the moving average. Once you have enough data, you will be able to plot a smooth line which you can use to help with your analysis.
How do you use moving average?
In very simple terms: if the price is above the moving average, you can assume that the market is bullish. If price is below the moving average, you can assume that the market is bearish.
The way we use the moving average is that we see it as dynamic resistance/support.
Dynamic support – When price is above the moving average and approaches it, the moving average will act as a support base where price could potentially bounce off.
Dynamic resistance – when price is below the moving average, price may come up to reject the moving average before moving lower.
Transition from bearish to bullish (vice versa)
We found that one of the most probable moments where the moving average acts as a dynamic support/resistance is when price impulses through the moving average and then retests it. It is possible to gain an entry on the retest provided there are other confluences playing a part such as previous structure or price action.
What moving average do we use?
100 and 200 moving average.
Examples
Education excerpt: Simple Moving AverageSimple Moving Average (SMA)
The origin of inventing the Simple Moving Average (MA) is not clear. Although, some of the first documented cases of its use date as far back as the early 20th century. Implementation of moving averages in technical analysis is one of the most successful methods of identifying trends. Moving averages are simply constant period averages - usually of prices, that are calculated for each successive period interval. The result of calculation is then plotted on the chart as a smooth line that represents successive average prices. Thus, the calculation of the moving average dampens fluctuations of price of an asset, making it easier to spot an underlying trend. Though use of the moving average goes beyond identifying trends. Support, resistance and price extremes can be anticipated by correct interpretation of the moving average. Different lengths of moving average directly translate to the amount of data used in the calculation. Including more data in the calculation of the moving average makes each data per time interval relatively less important. Therefore, a large change in one particular data would not have as large an impact on the overall result of the calculation in comparison to if the moving average with a shorter period was employed. Hence, the longer moving average produces less false signals at the cost of revealing underlying trend sooner rather than later. Usually, the use of two moving averages with different period intervals is encouraged as opposed to use of a single moving average. This comes from the premise that when two moving averages with different period intervals are plotted on a chart, they tend to show two separate lines converging and diverging. Generally, when the moving average with a lower period interval crosses above the moving average with a higher period interval it is considered a bullish signal. On the other hand, when the moving average with a longer period interval crosses above the moving average with a lower period interval it is considered a bearish signal. These crossovers can serve as specific buy and sell signals in markets that are trending. However, moving average crossovers tend to produce many false signals in non-trending markets. Furthermore, these same crossovers can act as support or resistance levels.
Calculation and formula
The calculation of the moving average usually involves use of the close price. Normally, 10, 20, 50, 100 or 200 periods are used and the calculation is conducted by creating the arithmetic mean of a dataset.
SMA = (A1 + A2 + An) : n
A = average in period n
n = number of time periods
Illustration of weekly chart of DAI:
Red line = 50-day SMA
Green line = 20-day SMA
Disclaimer: This is just excerpt from our full text. This content is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
BTC: Last chance for survival.Every time a death cross happened (200/50MA cross) BTC has entered into a bearish cycle.
During JULY 2017 bullrun, BTC was close to complete a deathcross, 50 and 200MA were getting closer, but after the "dip" a strong rejection happened and price recovered.
That was BTC hope for nowadays price action once we fell from 64k, but then 30k flash crash happened and 200MA 1D (39k) was pierced.
Can we go push prices above 200MA 1D massively and quick so 50MA moves higher quickly and draws away from 200MA avoiding a massive death cross?
It's last BTC hope for resuming the bullrun, otherwise BTC will complete a wyckoff distribution following by an accumulation which may take months.
Marketbuy or crash.
NFA.
Bitcoin 200-Day EMA Rejection Follow-UpThe analysis I posted yesterday about a likely 200-Day EMA rejection played out nicely. While the pattern played out as predicted, the fundamental backdrop got worse significantly faster than expected. Because of this I decided to leave my stop-loss as is instead of adjust for each price level.
With how firm the resistance is holding up and the volume that we're selling I feel that closing my position at the 38,500 level (which would be the new stop-loss according to the first post) would be premature. I will break down my decision making process here:
Chart Description
Yellow flags indicate the position on each chart that the 200 day EMA was broken.
Hourly chart shows 4 clear rejections of 42,000 after breaking down and a potential bear flag.
Daily shows the sharp 200-day rejection as predicted yesterday as well as an approaching death cross.
Analysis
The first interesting move is a quadruple top after a support break. A key insight here is the volume bars during each rejection:
1 - relatively low volume with a higher volume pump off the bottom of the channel. This is about the spot where I made the post yesterday.
2 - high volume selloff which coincided with bearish news out of China.
3 - low volume bleed and reversal
4 - high volume selloff followed by potential bear flag. The reason I say potential here is because the green intervals have decently high volume compared to what I like to see for a clear flag. Although it seems to have dropped in the recent hours, this is still something I would like to confirm.
The second item I'm interested in is the approaching death cross on the daily chart. The red line indicates the 20-day EMA is getting dangerously close to the 200-day EMA that is the focus of this trade. This puts bulls in a position where the clock is ticking down and there is no momentum anywhere to indicate that it can break over the resistance and hold it. I do feel like there will be a battle though which is part of the reason I don't want to move my stop-loss prematurely.
With all this being said, I stuck to the plan for the profit taking and closed a small portion at target #1. I will be looking to re-enter at the top of the hourly channel and if we confirm a break below the channel.
Since this situation is fluid it is important to be unattached. Although I am not seeing much for bulls right now it is important to not ignore something if it does pop up. For this reason, price targets and stop-losses may be getting adjusted as needed. If the death cross occurs I will be lowering my price targets significantly.
As always, don't be blind to risks. There is still everything that was mentioned yesterday especially the unpredictability of news. If there is bullish advances re-analyze the trade and adjust as needed. Do not fall in love with a trade even if it looks solid in the moment.
Bitcoin 200-day EMA Rejection ShortPlay on rejection of 200-day EMA after bulls fail to break the downtrend with tight stop loss.
Entry: 41,000
Stop Loss: 44,000
Target Price #1: 35,000
Target Price #2: 30,000
Target Price #3: 25,000
At each price target move stop loss to 10% over target value.
Reasoning:
First dip below 200-day EMA of the bull run. Sharp rejection possible.
Potential government intervention in US and China.
High volume selling along with increased volatility.
Risks:
Celebrity pumps can trigger tight stop losses on shorts.
Rapid bounce after first drop indicates strong buying power ready to deploy.
Bullish L2 news could cause rapid trend reversal to highs.
ARKK - Daily with Fib extensions and Waddah Attar Explosion ARKK - Daily with Fib extensions, WAE
Had to chart an ARK fund today, after CNBC treated her so rudely like they do with any guest they don't agree with. If you are a day trader/active investor do yourself a favor and ditch CNBC. They are NOT on your side.
Look at the 3 MA's used, the 8/21EMA and the 200MA, the fund has dropped below all 3. Tread carefully.
Quick review of fib extensions and I am starting to incorporate the WAE (Waddah Attar Explosion) indicator by Lazy Bear. Volume is always something I am looking to increase my knowledge on, and a friend of mine recommended I give this a try.
This indicator shows areas of trend strength, direction, "explosion" line, and a dead zone marker.
Explanation from the indicator developer:
"Various components of the indicator are:
Dead Zone Line: Works as a filter for weak signals. Do not trade when the red or green histogram is below it.
Histograms:
- Red histogram shows the current down trend.
- Green histogram shows the current up trend.
- Sienna line shows the explosion in price up or down.
Signal for ENTER_BUY: All the following conditions must be met.
- Green histo is raising.
- Green histo above Explosion line.
- Explosion line raising.
- Both green histo and Explosion line above DeadZone line.
Signal for EXIT_BUY: Exit when green histo crosses below Explosion line.
Signal for ENTER_SELL: All the following conditions must be met.
- Red histo is raising.
- Red histo above Explosion line.
- Explosion line raising.
- Both red histo and Explosion line above DeadZone line.
Signal for EXIT_SELL: Exit when red histo crosses below Explosion line. "
$NVDA Pullback$NVDA to pull back to the slow-moving average (purple highlighted area), using it as support, then potentially move higher as shown by the bullish Ichimoku cloud. There is clear disequilibrium between the fast and slow-moving averages (base and conversion lines) and price action has already started moving towards the base line at roughly $569.63 and my analysis shows that it will continue to close the gap between the moving averages before a continuation of an uptrend. Thoughts on this analysis?
Honda Motors - Probable trend reversalIn the chart you will find everything that i found important to the current price of the stock.
I think we will see a trend reversal if the price draws a good uptrend after the spike up.
On Tuesday(today) I expect the price to suffer from correction but this is healthy for the long term price movement.
I would wait out the correction and there will be a better entry for LONG position.
I am not financial expert nor advisor, please make your own decisions and do your own analysis!