Leaving Breadcrumbs For A Swing Or Setting A Trap?In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases and large cap earnings should energize the market. While “C” waves are not required to meet specific sub-wave retracements, and can go straight to their targets without a significant pullback, we should still be prepared for the possibility of being faced with market whiplash. Taking all of this into account, I think there could be a pullback - especially after noticing an important clue right in front of me.
AMEX:SPY has been rising higher for the last five sessions in a jerky uptrend from last week’s lows and is close to filling a gap/imbalance at the $555 level on the daily chart. There is also a gap from $529-$534, however the price is much closer to filling the upper gap.
Other things I’m taking note of on the daily chart are the declining volume and a MA cross confirmation. The moving averages I’m using here are HMA (13; pink) EMA (34; yellow) and SMA (200; green), and I have found the Hull Moving Average crossing the Exponential Moving Average to be a fairly reliable indicator of a reversal. HMA will cross up on Tuesday if the price stays above the EMA.
For a different perspective, the 1000R ($10) chart shows the price action a little more smoothly. I noticed that for the month of April, each time the price swung lower, it did so by around $35. If it is assumed that this pattern continues for one more swing lower in what would be wave (b) of C, the next question would be: to which retracement level it would go?
There are a lot of people on the boards who think the price will move lower on Tuesday. If the price were to fall from around Monday’s close of $550, a $35 drop would take the price back to around $515, which would result in an approximately 80% retracement of wave (a). There is nothing wrong with this, and the price could reverse and extend to $580 from there, however I think such a deep retracement into wave (a) is the less likely scenario since the goal of this larger corrective wave is to keep the momentum moving higher to sell before the market tanks. I still charted it above to show what that would look like.
Alternatively, I am expecting SPY to move higher on Tuesday and pull back Wednesday and Thursday to continue printing what appears to be clean and proportional movements here in the first major corrective wave of the bear market.
The week ahead will have several events that could determine the market’s direction. The most important news should come from GDP and Core PCE data being released before the open on Wednesday. Regardless of how the market reacts, we can assume with relative confidence that the news will contribute to a large movement in price. Since I’m suggesting a $35 move down will happen at some point, I am anticipating Wednesday will start this movement.
Above the $555 gap there is an order block that the price should be gravitating towards. This would be an ideal area to absorb buy orders before SPY gets sent down. Taking an educated guess, $565 could be a key level that marks the end of wave (a). A $35 reduction from there would see the price retrace 61.8% (0.382 level on the chart) to $530. Since there is another gap around this level, it should be a logical area for the price to move next before beginning its final rise to around $580.
…
This idea makes more assumptions than my last one, so please trust your own instincts and form your own opinions. The market can be unpredictable, so patterns can fail at any time. This is why it is important to stay vigilant.
With that being said, I expect Tuesday to be another low volume day that could take the price in any direction; including sideways. Since Wednesday’s data should be a major driving force for price activity this week, it is important to assess which level the market is targeting just before the news comes out. We’ll see what happens, but I think institutions are going to look to prolong this corrective wave while they still can and offload shares at a good price, because the next time this sells off it will go much lower.
I appreciate all of the feedback I received on my last post, and if you enjoyed this one I’d love to know what you think. Good luck to all.
Moving Averages
Reckitt Benckiser Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Reckitt Benckiser Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (EMA Settings)) & Start Of (Diagonal) | Completed Survey
* (Uptrend Argument)) On Midrange Area | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* Wave Feature + Ongoing Entry | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 101.00 GBP
* Entry At 104.00 GBP
* Take Profit At 109.00 GBP
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
$BTC Rejected at .618 Fib - Correction Coming!Textbook rejection at the .618 Fib for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Now on its way to retest the 200 and 50DMA as expected.
If that does not hold, we’ll go back to my original inverse head & shoulder idea ~$78k.
This will be the catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg up to $130k end of June.
Axon’s Uptrend May Remain IntactAxon Enterprise has been climbing since last summer, and some traders may think its uptrend remains intact.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the tight consolidation pattern since February. The broader market revisited prices from a year prior, but the law-enforcement IT company never broke levels from just three months earlier. That shallower pullback may suggest buyers remain in control.
Second, AXON ended last week above the top of the range. Has a breakout begun?
Third, the stock tested and held its rising 200-day simple moving average on April 7. That may suggest the long-term uptrend remains in effect.
Next, MACD is rising. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also above the 21-day EMA. Those signals may indicate its short-term trend has gotten more bullish.
Finally, rallies after the last three earnings reports may reflect bullish sentiment towards AXON’s fundamentals.
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Tencent/Hong Kong Dollar Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Tencent / Hong Kong Dollar Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Reversal Argument)) At 783 HKD | Completed Survey
* Wave Feature + Long Entry Support | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* Retracement Area & Entry Bias | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 100.00 HKD
* Entry At 118.00 HKD
* Take Profit At 145.00 HKD
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Nifty 24170-24360 range breakout to provide an directional move.Trend: Moderately bullish.
Trigger point: 24,360 breakout.
Above 24,360: Strong bullish breakout into a fresh zone.
Below 24,170: Caution advised — bias would weaken.
Volatility: Dropping — favoring smoother, more controlled moves rather than choppy swings.
Momentum: Building but needs further confirmation from RSI 21-SMA reversal.
Massive Head & Shoulders + Death Cross on Big 7A massive head and shoulders pattern is forming on the Big 7 tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA). After a strong rally, a death cross (50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA) has appeared, pointing to possible weakness ahead.
Short-term concerns: right shoulder is forming now. If it holds, we could see a bounce. If the right shoulder fails, expect sharp drops and potential broader market reversals.
Long-term view: markets could still move higher over time, but short-term risks are rising. This setup resembles the 1999-2000 period before the dot-com crash. The AI bubble could be nearing its peak, with current leaders losing strength and new players stepping in.
Key to watch: neckline of the head and shoulders and how the market reacts to the death cross.
disclaimer: this is not financial advice. for informational purposes only. trading involves risk and past patterns do not predict future results. always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.
XLMUSDTHello to all AMKT members, I hope you had a good day.😍
Today we are going to analyze the XLM coin.
On the weekly time frame, we entered a correction after the sharp rise that we were having, and now there are signs of the start of the next upward wave.
On the daily and 4-hour time frame, after the 0.3 break and the volume increase and the rsi enters the overbuy zone, we can take a long position.
For the short position, we can choose another token, but we can enter a short position with a break of 0.2601, but the trading risk is high.
I hope you have a good and profitable day.
CORE Rectangle BreakoutBITGET:COREUSDT appears to be breaking out of a 2 1/2 months long rectangle, and is currently challenging the 100-day EMA.
Confirmation: Daily close above $0.58
Invalidation: Break back below the rectangle resistance
Target: Previous support at $0.77 (resistance reinforced by 200-day EMA)
FTSE MIB (IT40) Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# FTSE MIB (IT40) Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (A+ Set Up)) | Completed Survey
* Wave Feature + Long Entry Bias | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* ((No Trade)) At 0.80% To Percentage Related Settings | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 129.00 EUR
* Entry At 135.00 EUR
* Take Profit At 145.00 EUR
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
DaVita Inc. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# DaVita Inc. Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Consolidation Argument)) | Completed Survey
* Wave Feature(Flat Structure) | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* ((No Trade)) At 200.00 USD | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Logarithmic Settings
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 150.00 USD
* Entry At 140.00 USD
* Take Profit At 125.00 USD
* (Continuation Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
Progressive Corp. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Progressive Corp. Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Diagonal) Starting At 212.00 USD | Completed Survey
* Wave Feature(Flat Structure) | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* (EMA Settings)) & Uptrend Bias | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed to 100
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 122.00 USD
* Entry At 127.00 USD
* Take Profit At 135.00 USD
* (Continuation Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
DOGE Daily MA Hints and CluesDOGEUSD Daily Outlook: Signs of Accumulation?
Thanks for taking the time to check out my analysis on DOGEUSD. Let’s dive in.
Most traders are familiar with moving averages and crossover signals — and while these are often viewed as lagging indicators, I’ve found that using multiple moving averages together can offer much clearer insights, especially when paired with other supporting tools.
On this chart, I’m using a combination of simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). I’ll break down the specific MAs I'm using in a follow-up post, but for now, I want to highlight what the moving average structure is showing us right now — and how it compares to similar price action in the past.
Take a look at the yellow arrows on the chart:
The arrow on the right marks the current price position relative to the moving averages.
The arrow on the left points to a similar setup from the past.
As the old saying goes: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
The last time DOGEUSD price action sat in this zone, we saw about 45 to 50 days of consolidation and chop before the market broke into a strong parabolic move higher. Projecting that same timeframe forward puts us somewhere around mid-June.
While nothing is guaranteed in the markets, this chart suggests that accumulation around this zone could present a favorable risk-reward setup for a potential run in the near to mid-term.
My Approach:
I began accumulating a position today and plan to add on pullbacks if the opportunity presents itself.
As always, this is not financial advice — just sharing my personal outlook and strategy. Wishing you all success out there — stay patient, stay sharp.
$SPY April 28, 2025AMEX:SPY April 28, 2025
15 Minutes.
We had 3 days without any gap issues.
So, Some consolidation.
So, if we take the low 508.46 as bottom for the last fall then for the extension 508.46 to 544.44 to 533.8, we have 557 as initial target.
A retracement to 538-542 levels will be good as averages will converge slightly for a move towards 563.
For this holding 533-534 is very important.
ANGEL ONE - Potential Cup Pattern Breakout!Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Pattern: Cup Formation (shown with arc)
Setup:
Price is forming a classic cup pattern.
The neckline (arc resistance) is near 2538.40.
Price has recently approached but faced resistance around the neckline.
Once the price breaks above the arc line with strong volume, a bullish breakout could be confirmed!
Targets After Breakout:
🎯 Target 1: 2800
🎯 Target 2: 3000
Stop-loss suggestion: As per your risk management.
Notes:
Price is currently below the 200 EMA. For a strong confirmation, look for a close above the arc and the 200 EMA with volume spike.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves substantial risk.