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Moving Averages

Timeframes: Why They’re Fundamentally Flawed (And What To Do)When analyzing price action, timeframes serve as a convenient lens through which traders attempt to make sense of the market. They help us categorize price movement — bullish , bearish , ranging , trending , and so on — within a structured framework. But here’s the reality: candlesticks themselves aren’t real . Much like clocks or calendars, they’re simply man-made constructs — tools we've invented to measure and scale something intangible: time . I know that might sound a bit abstract, but stay with me. While traders commonly rely on standard timeframes like the Daily, 4H, 1H, 15M , etc., it’s important to recognize that price doesn’t conform to these rigid intervals. The market moves continuously, and the “spaces between” those timeframes — like a 27-minute or 3-hour chart — are just as real . These non-standard timeframes often offer better clarity depending on the speed and rhythm of the market at any given moment. This begs the question: How do we keep up with this ever-shifting pace? Do we constantly toggle between similar timeframes to recalibrate our analysis? Do we measure volatility? Amplitude? Period length? There’s no clear consensus, which leads to inefficiency — and in trading, inefficiency costs. In my view, the solution lies in blending multiple nearby timeframes into a single, adaptive framework . We need a representation of price action that adjusts automatically with the speed of the market. And the answer is surprisingly simple — literally . It’s called the Simple Moving Average (SMA) . Think an SMA is just a line representing past highs, lows, or closes? It’s much more than that. When used creatively, the SMA becomes a dynamic lens that filters noise, reveals trend clarity, and smooths out irregularities in price behavior. Rather than relying on a single metric, we can combine multiple SMA variations — highs, lows, opens, closes — into one composite view of the market . This gives us a continuously adjusting snapshot of average price action. Once we adopt this approach, everything starts to click. • Engulfing patterns become more reliable • Liquidity sweeps occur less frequently • Supply and demand zones become more precise • Market structure begins to make consistent sense With SMA-based price action , our strategies don’t just become clearer — they become smarter . Want to See It in Action? If you’re interested in applying this concept to your own trading strategy, check out my TradingView profile: The_Forex_Steward . There, you’ll find the SMA Price Action indicator used in the examples shown, as well as tools that apply this methodology to: • Supply and Demand • Market Structure • Market Balance Levels • Velocity & Momentum • And more to come! If you found this idea helpful, be sure to follow the page. I’ll be releasing more exclusive indicators and trading concepts soon — so stay tuned!
Education
by The_Forex_Steward
Hard to find a "butter" trade than TOST - long at 42.49This is my first actual trade of TOST. No particular bias against it, just haven't traded it before. But looking at its paper results, I wish I had been. Since the first of the year, it has outperformed QQQ more than 2:1 on a B/H basis, which I always like to see, but don't always get in a trade. But its 16.71% return pales compared to what I'd have gotten had I been trading it. It generated 16 signals since Jan 1. The summed (non-compounded) return on those trades, collectively, would have been +49.2% and that includes an open signal that is down almost 5% right now. The average trade lasted 9 days (increased by one trade that lasted 56 days). The average gain in those 9 days was 3.08% (.33%/day or almost 8x the avg market return and 5x that of the QQQ so far this year). The median results were even better: +2.64% in 4.5 days (+0.59% per day held). As a bonus here, the stock is well above its 200d MA and is at the upper edge of the GC overlay bullish ribbon (also a good sign of strength). Like Monday's idea, none of this guarantees success, but it ups the odds. While I don't do price targets, the 1 open buy signal was triggered 4.77% above where the stock is now, so I expect that to be eventually taken out. But, it's been 6+ weeks since that signal already, so how soon is anyone's guess. I will likely take my profits when my profit taking signal clicks, be that in one day or in weeks. Maybe I'll get lucky and it will take out that 4.77% level in a hurry. 5 of the 16 trades so far this year have eclipsed that level, so it's not out of the question. We shall see. The win is all I seek. What the market gods deign to give me in terms of magnitude and time required is up to them. I will accept it. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:TOSTLong
by redwingcoach
4
$CLOV - Bullish Divergence 30MClover has had strong downtrend movement on no news. Bullish divergence is forming on the 30M. If divergence confirms possible test of 50 SMA and consolidation before we see the next the next trend. Retail trader discovery of Counter Part Health's partnerships with Humana through subdomains could put a potential bottom and reverse the trend prior to earning. But will retail be enough to reverse course? Institutions want to see $2.20, $1.91
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by mr_albundy
3
BAH Gaining Momentum With New DOD ContractsBAH recently fell after missing earning expectations, though the results were quite decent. It is currently sitting at 57% of 52 Weeks high. Seems oversold. Its AI products are going to contribute significantly to future revenues. Recently on June 16th, it won a DoD contract worth $96.07 million. Plus, the SMA (10) is finally crossing above SMA (50). First target (A) seems to be $115 ish. If it breaks that resistance, 2nd target (B) seems to be about $122+. NFA, just sharing my learning. :)
NYSE:BAHLong
by valuespotter
3
3 Reasons the Meta (META) Double Top Is a Buy Signal3 Reasons the Meta (META) Double Top Is a Buy Signal – Rocket Booster Strategy Explained Meta Platforms Inc. (META) recently printed what looks like a double top pattern on the 4-hour chart. Many traders are expecting a reversal. But from my perspective, this setup could actually be a trap for early short-sellers. Here's why. The overall trend remains bullish. Price is still trading above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, which confirms that the long-term and short-term momentum is still upward. When a double top appears in a strong uptrend but fails to break the neckline, it often becomes a fakeout. Instead of reversing, the price consolidates, shakes out weak hands, and then breaks higher. This is where my strategy comes in. I call it the Rocket Booster Strategy. It works like this: 1. First, the price must be above both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. This confirms we’re in an active uptrend. 2. Then, if a bearish pattern like a double top appears but the neckline does not break, that’s a sign of a trap. 3. We wait for price to bounce near the neckline or break above the recent top. That’s the ignition point – the rocket is ready to fire. In this Meta setup, if price holds above the neckline or quickly reclaims the recent high, it becomes a strong buying opportunity. The pattern fakeout acts like fuel, giving bulls the momentum to push price even higher. This is a high-probability setup because many traders get caught in the trap, expecting a sell-off, and their stop-losses become buy fuel for the next rally. Trade idea: Entry: near neckline bounce or breakout above second top Stop loss: below the neckline or under the 50 EMA Target: new highs and above Final thoughts: Don’t fall for surface-level patterns. In strong uptrends, failed double tops are often just launchpads. The Rocket Booster Strategy helps us spot the fakeout and ride the breakout. How 3 Simple Conditions Turn a Double Top Into a Buy Signal Most traders see a double top and expect a reversal. But in strong uptrends, this pattern can fail — and when it does, it often sets up a high-probability buying opportunity. Traders who use the Rocket Booster Strategy understand how to spot these traps and trade them in the direction of the trend. Here’s how the strategy works — and why some double tops become launchpads, not ceilings. 1. Price Above Both 50 EMA and 200 EMA When price remains above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, it confirms strong bullish momentum in both the short and long term. In these conditions, many reversal patterns like the double top often fail. Instead of selling off, price consolidates and continues higher. Traders using this strategy only look for buy setups when both EMAs are pointing up and price stays above them. 2. Bear Trap Setup A double top often attracts sellers. These traders place their stop-losses just above the highs. If price fails to break the neckline and instead rallies above the top, those stop-losses are triggered, creating a surge in buy orders. This becomes a trap — not a reversal — and the breakout can be fast and aggressive. The Rocket Booster Strategy takes advantage of this liquidity burst. 3. Entry After Confirmation, Not Assumption Instead of shorting the pattern, traders using the Rocket Booster Strategy wait for one of two bullish confirmations: A bounce off the neckline without breaking below it A breakout above the second top after the trap is set At that point, the trend is considered intact, and momentum is ready to continue. The "rocket" is refueled, and the strategy shifts into entry mode. Trade Setup Example: Entry: Near neckline bounce or breakout above second top Stop Loss: Below neckline or under the 50 EMA Target: New highs and above the pattern top Final Thoughts In strong trends, failed double tops are not warning signs — they’re opportunities. The Rocket Booster Strategy filters out weak signals by requiring clear alignment: price above both EMAs, pattern failure, and bullish confirmation. When these conditions align, a pattern that looks bearish on the surface becomes a fuel source for the next breakout. Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research.
NASDAQ:METALong
by lubosi
$AMD Swing Trade – Put Debit Spread Setup🔻 NASDAQ:AMD Swing Trade – Put Debit Spread Setup (Jul 18 Exp) 📅 Trade Opened: July 3, 2025 🛠 Strategy: Buy to Open (BTO) Put Debit Spread 📉 Strikes: $31 / $30 (Jul 18 Expiration) 💵 Cost (Premium Paid): $0.21 🎯 Trade Thesis This setup aims to capture short-term downside in NASDAQ:AMD via a low-cost, defined-risk spread. The trade fits within my broader portfolio of OTM spreads under $0.25. Key Drivers: 🔻 Semi sector under pressure – NASDAQ:AMD showing relative weakness. 📉 Breakdown below key support near $31 and rejection at VWAP. 🧾 Weak momentum – MACD trending down, RSI near 44. 🔄 Trade enters into earnings season volatility. 📊 Technical Setup (Daily) EMA(4) < EMA(8) < EMA(15): Bearish structure fully intact. VWAP: Price rejected from 30-day VWAP zone. MACD/RSI: Momentum still fading, no signs of bullish divergence. ⏳ Strategy Notes Max loss: $0.21 Max gain: $0.79 Risk/reward structured for a drop into or below $30 Expiration: July 18 🧠 Journal Note Most of my trades are swing-based using OTM debit spreads with tight risk control. No same-day entries — setups must have defined technical compression and short-term catalysts.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by DarkPoolRay
$LYFT Swing Trade – Low-Cost Call Debit Spread Setup🚗 NASDAQ:LYFT Swing Trade – Low-Cost Call Debit Spread Setup (Jul 18 Exp) 📅 Trade Opened: July 3, 2025, 2:53 PM 🛠 Strategy: Buy to Open (BTO) Call Debit Spread 📈 Strikes: $16.5 / $17.5 (Jul 18 Expiration) 💵 Cost (Premium Paid): $0.25 🎯 Trade Thesis This swing trade targets a short-term bullish move in NASDAQ:LYFT based on improving fundamentals and favorable technical setup. The structure uses a low-cost OTM call spread to define risk and limit exposure while capturing directional potential. Catalysts supporting the move: 🚙 Autonomous vehicle rollout beginning this summer (Atlanta) and expanding to Dallas (2026) via Mobileye partnership. 🗳 Activist investor Engine Capital pushing for governance changes and strategic alternatives. 💵 Gross bookings at record levels, with net income and free cash flow turning positive. 📈 Analyst upgrade from TD Cowen with a $21 target (+30% upside from entry). 📊 Technical Setup (Daily Chart) 📉 EMA(4) < EMA(8) < EMA(15): Bearish alignment beginning to flatten – potential compression signal. ⚖ VWAP (30‑day): Price consolidating near long-term VWAP – watching for reclaim. 🔄 MACD: Bullish crossover emerging. 📉 RSI: ~36 – approaching oversold territory, setting up possible reversal. ⏳ Strategy Notes Position type: OTM vertical call debit spread. Risk defined: Max loss = $0.25 per contract. Max gain: $0.75 if LYFT closes at or above $17.5 by expiration. Timeframe: 2-week swing through July 18, ahead of Q2 earnings (~Aug 6). 🧠 Journal Note This position aligns with a broader strategy focused on OTM spreads priced under $0.25, using technical compressions and fundamental tailwinds. Trade was opened not on an entry signal day - this avoids front-running momentum shifts.
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by DarkPoolRay
NOV Inc. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # NOV Inc. Stock Quote - Double Formation * (Downtrend Argument)) + Diagonal Shift At 20.00 USD | Completed Survey * (EMA Settings)) - *100 EMA - Lower Band Feature | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Long Consecutive Range * (TP2) = b / Short Consecutive Pullback | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 14.00 USD * Entry At 13.00 USD * Take Profit At 11.00 USD * (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation - Continuation Pattern | Not Valid - Reversal Pattern | Not Valid * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
PEPPERSTONE:NOVShort
by TradePolitics
Keysight May Be Attempting a BreakoutKeysight Technologies has been stuck in a range, but some traders may think a breakout is coming. The first pattern on today’s chart is the $165.89 level. It was the intraday high on February 26 as the broader market began a slide to the downside. The technology stock stalled near the same level in late May, even after a strong quarterly report. KEYS ended above it on Thursday, July 3. It was the highest weekly close since February. (The stock also formed a bullish outside candle.) Bollinger Band Width narrowed during the period of limited movement. Could that price compression give way to expansion? Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. Prices have also found support above the 200-day simple moving average, which is gently rising. Those signals may reflect bullishness in the short- and long-term periods. Finally, KEYS noted increased demand for its network-testing equipment as data centers grow. Could investors come to view it as an overlooked AI play? Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:KEYS
by TradeStation
RZI Bullish BreakoutThe price is currently testing resistance around 0.63, after rising from 0.575. The volume profile indicates high activity around 0.58-0.62, showing strong interest. The EMAs reflect a bullish shift, with the 20 EMA approaching a crossover above the 50 EMA. After a period of squeeze inside the triangle, the bands are beginning to open. The RSI is neutral to bullish, trending upward around 50. Overall, the chart suggests a potential breakout. No clear over-bought yet, there is room to run if bulls stay in control. Key Scenarios Bullish Breakout: A daily close above the red trendline + A$0.63–0.65 resistance zone would confirm. First target: A$0.70–0.72 (next volume-profile “valley” and previous swing highs) Secondary: A$0.80+ (upper Bollinger band confluence from the Feb top) False Break / Rejection: Look for a swift pullback into the green ascending line (~A$0.60) or the broader support box around A$0.57–0.58. Watch EMAs for signs of rolling over (20 EMA crossing back below 50 EMA would turn neutral-to-bearish).
ASX:RZILong
by entryspecialist
BTC/USD (4H): Classic FRL short setup unfoldingTrading = capital management under uncertainty. Bitcoin is trading inside a clear descending channel on H4. Price recently tested the upper boundary of this channel while forming a bearish divergence on MACD. This divergence hints at a weakening upward phase, signaling a possible phase shift according to Fractal Reversal Law (FRL). Why is this a classic FRL setup? ✅ Phase Identification: The prior local upward phase within the descending channel is weakening. ✅ Reversal Pattern: A double top / wedge has formed at the upper boundary with a bearish divergence. ✅ Neckline: The neckline aligns with the MA100 cluster on H4, now acting as a horizontal rubicon. ✅ Confirmation: We wait for a full candle close below the neckline on H4 to confirm the phase shift. ✅ Targets: – TP1: Mid-channel grey zone. – TP2: Lower boundary of the channel. ✅ Stop: Above the recent highs or channel top, depending on your risk management. Plan: Wait for H4 close below neckline → enter short. Use the channel structure for target planning. Manage risk with a tight, structure-based stop. This is a clean FRL textbook scenario: Phase → Pattern → Neckline → Confirmation → Target. It aligns with the larger market structure, using the combination of price action, divergence, and structure clarity to guide your trade decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by borschenkovitc
VTI 1D: breakout on the daily within a long-term weekly uptrend On the daily chart, VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) has broken through the key $303.5 resistance level with strong volume. This breakout occurs within a larger weekly uptrend channel, highlighting a continuation of the long-term bullish structure. Volume profile shows a clear path ahead: $321.7 (1.272 Fibo) and $345 (1.618 Fibo). The golden cross (MA50 crossing MA200 from below) further supports the bullish case. Fundamentally, VTI represents the entire U.S. equity market - large to small caps - and benefits from economic resilience, declining inflation, and passive inflows. It’s a logical macro play for trend continuation. Tactical plan: — Entry by market or after retest $303.5 — TP1: $321.7 — TP2: $345 — Invalidation below $300 The whole market breaking out? That’s not noise — it’s the signal.
AMEX:VTILong
by TotoshkaTrades
Gold Short Term OutlookIn yesterday’s analysis, we highlighted that the $3,327–$3,328 support zone needed to hold for bulls to maintain momentum. Price respected that level, bouncing off intraday support and is now attempting a recovery. Currently, the 50MA is acting as dynamic resistance, and we need to see a clean break above the $3,352–$3,356 resistance zone for bulls to challenge higher levels. However, if price fails to break above this resistance cluster, we may see a pullback toward the $3,327 support once again. A break below that would likely expose price to a deeper retracement toward $3,298. 📌 Key Resistance: ‣ $3,352 ‣ $3,356 ‣ $3,364 ‣ $3,383 📌 Key Support: ‣ $3,328 ‣ $3,298 ‣ $3,270 🧠 Fundamental Focus: With U.S. markets partially closed today, expect low liquidity and increased volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
Sofina SA Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Sofina SA Quote - Double Formation * (1st Entry Area)) | Completed Survey * (Reversal Argument)) | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Long Consecutive Range * (TP2) = b / Short Consecutive Pullback | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100 - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 106.00 EUR * Entry At 113.00 EUR * Take Profit At 124.00 EUR * (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
PEPPERSTONE:SOF.BELong
by TradePolitics
Crypto Tide Rising: Will TOTAL Market Cap surf past $5T?In November 2024 the crypto ocean was calm, hovering near $2.25T . Then, in a short time, fresh capital poured in, daily volume spiked, and the tide lifted us to $3.65T by mid-December . Two bullish buoys popped up: ▶️ The daily down-trend snapped on Nov 4th, triggering a 51 % climb; ▶️ The 50-day MA (orange) crossed above the 200-day MA (white) on Nov 7th, after a 64 % rally. Fast-forward to June 4th 2025 . Another Golden Cross has just flashed, and price is again nudging that descending trend-line. If History rhymes: the line breaks and momentum matches 2024’s move, the TOTAL MC could vault toward $5T . Keeping today’s dominance ratios, that target implies roughly $162 k BTC and $3.8 k ETH . Add rising Global M2 and stablecoin liquidity, a supportive macro backdrop, and we may be staring at the next great crypto swell. Will the market catch this wave or will macro headwinds keep the tide in check? Not financial advice. DYOR, Arrr!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MorangoTango
1