Hindalco - Forming BAT PatternHindalco gas completed BAT pattern formation.
It may take rally up to
Target1: 740 to 760
Target2:823 to 865
Time Frame by beginning of Dec'24
Moving Averages
Hidden Risk: How to Uncover and Control Before You Click 'Buy'As seasoned traders, we understand that risk management isn't just a beginner's concept; it's the bedrock of sustainable profitability. We've moved beyond the rudimentary rules and are fluent in position sizing and stop-loss orders. But in the dynamic landscape of TradingView, where opportunities arise and vanish in the blink of an eye, even intermediate traders can fall prey to impulsive decisions that erode our hard-earned capital.
The solution? Systematizing our risk assessment with a pre-trade risk profile. It isn't about reinventing the wheel but refining our approach to ensure that every trade aligns with our overall strategy and risk tolerance. It gives us an edge by keeping us disciplined.
The Pitfalls of Complacency
It's easy to become complacent when we've got a few winning trades under our belt. We start to feel invincible precisely when we're most vulnerable. We might skip steps, loosen our stop-losses, or increase our position sizes beyond our predefined limits. We are often driven by emotions rather than logic, and it's a slippery slope.
Remember, even a well-defined risk management plan is useless if it's not consistently applied. Each trade carries unique risks influenced by factors beyond our standard calculations.
Creating a Pre-Trade Risk Profile: A Refresher
Before hitting that buy or sell button, click on TradingView to create a simple risk profile for the specific trade. Ask yourself a series of critical questions:
1. The Asset's Volatility:
What's the current Average True Range (ATR)? How does it compare to the asset's historical ATR? Higher volatility demands wider stop-losses and potentially smaller position sizes.
Are there any upcoming news events or economic releases that could impact volatility? Factor these in, as they can significantly alter the risk landscape. Be aware of, for instance, earning reports.
2. The Trade Setup:
What's your entry point, and why? Is it based on an explicit technical signal, or are you chasing a move?
Where's your stop-loss, and what is your rationale behind it? Is it placed below a key support level or based on a multiple of the ATR?
What's your target price, and is it realistically achievable given the current market conditions? Avoid setting overly ambitious targets that expose you to unnecessary risk.
3. The Correlation Factor:
How does this asset correlate with other positions in your portfolio? Are you inadvertently increasing your exposure to a specific sector or market trend?
Could a single event trigger losses across multiple positions? Diversification is key, but it requires careful consideration of correlations.
4. The Time Factor:
What's your intended holding period for this trade? The longer the timeframe, the greater the potential for unforeseen events to impact your position.
Does your stop-loss need to be adjusted based on the timeframe? A wider stop-loss than a day trade might be necessary for a swing trade.
5. The "Gut Check":
Are you comfortable with the potential loss on this trade? If the answer is no, it's a red flag. Either reduce your position size or reconsider the trade altogether.
Are you trading based on a well-defined plan, or are emotions driving your decision? Be honest with yourself.
From Profile to Action: Implementing Your Assessment
Once you've answered these questions, you have a clearer picture of the trade's risk profile. Use this information to:
Fine-tune your position size: Ensure it aligns with your pre-determined risk per trade (e.g., 1-2% of your capital).
Set your stop-loss: Place it strategically based on the asset's volatility and your chosen support/resistance levels.
Determine your risk/reward ratio: Is the potential profit worth your risk? Aim for at least a 1:2 or 1:3 risk/reward ratio.
Bonus Tip: Develop Your Risk Score System
Consider creating a simple risk score system to streamline your risk assessment further. Assign points to different risk factors based on their potential impact.
For example, here is the Trade Impact Estimator (T.I.E):
Volatility: Low Volatility (Below Average ATR): +1 point
Average Volatility (Within Average ATR): 0 points
High Volatility (Above Average ATR): -1 point
News Events: Major News Event Scheduled: -2 points
Minor News Event: -1 point
No News Event: +1 Point
Correlation: High Correlation with Existing Positions: -1 point
Low Correlation: +1 point
Timeframe: Day Trade: +1 point
Swing Trade: 0 points
Long-Term Trade: -1 point
Trade setup: Good Risk/reward ratio: +1 point
Neutral Risk/Reward ratio: 0 points
Bad Risk/Reward ratio: -2 points
Set Thresholds:
Total Score of +3 or higher: Potentially a lower-risk trade, consider proceeding as planned.
Total Score between 0 and +2: Proceed cautiously; consider reducing position size.
Total Score of -1 or lower: Re-evaluate the trade, widen your stop-loss, significantly reduce position size, or avoid the trade altogether.
Disclaimer: This is a simplified example. You can customize your risk score system to include additional factors and adjust the point values based on your own trading style and risk tolerance. You can also assign more points to factors that have historically impacted your trading results. It's crucial to backtest and refine your system over time.
The Takeaway
Mastering risk management is a continuous journey. By incorporating a pre-trade risk profile into our routine, we elevate our trading from reactive to proactive. We transform ourselves from gamblers to calculated risk-takers. On TradingView, where information flows ceaselessly, this disciplined approach is not just an advantage; it's a necessity. So, refine your process, stay vigilant, and make your trades profitable.
BLUE STAR LTDBreakout happend in this stock with rising 200dma and RS indicator is also showing strength.
Keep your risk and reward ratios according to your own preferance.
This is for educational purpose, do your own research before investing.
Purely TechnicalOn the close of last week Friday, nasdaq found support at 21,300-21,280… A closer examination of the 15-30min timeframe chart shows a *double bottom* chart pattern formation… Going into Monday, we’re looking of price to slightly pullback to the support zone at for buy entry. Price will be retracing to for profit taking . If price does consolidate at this lvl sell positions can be entered for further continuation of the pending fall to
50 day moving average
200 day moving average
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
50 SMA Rising strategy. Suitable for Swing Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 30 days SMA if price close below 30 SMA then Exit or be in the trade for 2 to 4 weeks.
Target & Stop loss shown on Chart. Do not Forget to Exit if Stop loss Hit.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
Steel in Uptrend be in Stock
BTC view to 86k!BTC from BBMA point of view
Daily is valid CSAK Sell with clear momentum sell in H4.
As for now; H4 is having re-entry sell at its MA High is aiming for lower BB at 93500 in short term.
let that fart out FART/USDT.pfartcoin is trading in a kinda falling wedge and rejected from the trendline above. we could see more downside coming to 0.761 or even 0.653. on the 4H is 0.653 where the 200 EMA currently is + a FVG on the 1H timeframe.
Plain&SimpleDax40 has formed a curvature which price has failed to penetrate to the upside. This has led price to fall under and face rejection by the 50 day moving average. Traders that are conditioned to chart pattern recognition will quickly notice that price structure has formed a textbook *inverted cup&handle*… And as we can all see, the 50 day moving average is looking to cross downward over the 200 day moving average. Experienced traders are aware what this phenomenon means…..
Based of previous held support and retracement, price is likely to hold major support for the pending falling at 19100-19080….
50ma{blue} 200ma{red}
comment, questions &concerns…
Dow to drop into bear market but first bounce at 36k H&S patternBearish case
Dow to drop 20% from ATH to be into a bear market
20% from ATH = weekly 200 EMA so banks will try and hold the price at 36k
I think it bounces here and then eventually fails and we get a big equity bear market
We have two H&S patterns that together take us below 36k if their targets are met
be a nice trade if it bounces at 36k off the 200 EMA to get in and out and add to short again without being slapped in the face. At which max bounce point off the (36k) look for the rest of the equities to go short on of stocks that have broken their key levels of support. Or look for dow stocks that are leading the way down because they already broke their weekly 200 EMA and are the weaker members of the pack.
BTC pullback before inauguration?Merryy Christmas guys and upcoming New Year!
Seems like we gonna meet New Year w BTC lower than100k...
Looks a bit scary, but here is in short what we have:
1) Daily MA cross. Which is bearish sign
2) Divergence between raising BTC channel and volumes
3) If the price will follow the red line move, it will form double top pattern 🥲
My expectations: I think we could correct to Fib zone around 0,236 (87k zone) and after we should check. But anyway seems like correction should happen before to continue growing and this we most likely gonna see after inauguration.
What you think guys? Help me dispel this scary picture 😅
ETHUSDT Analysis The currency is now in the buying phase, there is a price action candle rebounding from the 50 Fibonacci level and the 50 moving average line and rebounding from the order block area.
$ETHBTC - Bottom is in.As I posted earlier in the week, I think BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is primed to run in the near term, here's the original post:
Building on top of that, we have more indication that ETHBTC may have found some bullish support, on the shorter time frames over the past few days you can see a clear double-bottom where I highlighted the yellow semi-circle. ETHBTC has even made a higher high now as of today, as BTC has tested support near 94k USD.
If ETHUSD rallies as we expect, it makes sense that through Jan-Feb BTC.D will see a steep correction along with this. This is not to say that I am bearish BTC- I don't think BTCUSD is done, but I do think there are better RR trades emerging in the market soon.
WDYT?
TRX bullish going for 400 KRWTron looks bullish.
Target is 20MA in 1 day chart.
Looking into the detail on the 3 hour chart.
Small correction before reaching target price.
Take 50% profit on target price and watch price action.
FTM/USDT – Rising Channel PlayThis setup aims to ride the momentum of a well-defined ascending channel while using the 200MA for risk management. If FTM holds in this channel, it could keep pushing higher. However, if it breaches the 200MA decisively, it may signal a deeper pullback or trend shift.
Rising Channel: FTM has been respecting a clear ascending channel on the daily timeframe, making higher highs and higher lows since mid-year. Prices are currently near the channel’s midpoint to upper half.
RSI Trend: The RSI on the daily timeframe is forming higher lows, confirming bullish momentum. However, RSI is not oversold or overbought yet, so there’s still room for an upside move, but watch for divergences.
200MA as Key Support: Our stop loss is set just below the 200-day moving average. This MA often serves as a significant support/resistance level, so a daily close below it would signal a potential trend reversal and trigger the stop.
RSI Trend: The RSI on the daily timeframe is forming higher lows, confirming bullish momentum. However, RSI is not oversold or overbought yet, so there’s still room for an upside move, but watch for divergences.
Trade Setup
Entry: Around current levels (0.84–0.90) within the channel.
Targets:
1.00–1.10 (shorter-term Fib resistance)
1.28–1.80 (longer-term Fib extension and channel’s upper boundary)
Stop Loss: Below the 200MA (around 0.63-0.65), indicating invalidation if price closes under this level on the daily chart.
NVDA. Another Pullback Over ?NASDAQ:NVDA shares have just tested again ema 21W and now are again at the test of the short term trendline.
This time the test comes with a bullish crossover on faster EMAs.
The stock is in a bullish uptrend since January 2023
BTCUSDBuyers repeatedly tried to push the price above $100,000.
The local maximum is $99,450.
The nearest key support zone comes in between $95,900 and $96,600.
While the price is moving above this zone, the primary scenario is continued growth.
The intermediate growth target is $102,000 - $102,757.
Further, we can assume based on the price reaction.
Below $94,300, this analysis is not current.
✍️It is important to note that the above post is general information and cannot be taken as specific investment advice. All investments involve high risk, especially in the volatile cryptocurrency markets. A thorough market analysis and consideration of one's own risk tolerance is essential when making any investment decision!
$SPY December 27, 2024AMEX:SPY December 27, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, 602 gave resistance and AMEX:SPY managed to hold 597-598 yesterday.
I expect a move today after 2 days consolidation.
I will go long above 603 for a 3 to 4 $ move towatds 608-609 levels.
Provided 597 is held today. A close below 597 will result i a 2$ trade. Possible.
I prefer to go long above 602.6 - 603 for the day.
Gold analysis The time to buy is after the breakout of the downtrend line and we will wait for a retest of the uptrend line to buy
Charter Communications | CHTR | Long at $353.00Charter Communications NASDAQ:CHTR has hit the bottom of my historical simple moving average band. It may consolidate for a while around the current price or dip in the near-term (potentially in the $270's), but dropping interest rates will be extremely beneficial for telecommunication companies in the long-term. There are two open price gaps on the daily chart ($700's) that will inevitably close - just a matter of when. With a 90M float and 12% short interest, it's a stock that could get interesting if upward momentum takes over. Earnings and cash flow growth are anticipated through 2027, so at $353.00, NASDAQ:CHTR is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $400.00
Target #2 = $500.00
Target #3 = $600.00
Target #4 = $700.00
Target #5 = $740.00
