Crypto market crash begins in 14 weeks / May 2025For the past decade, since 2012, a specific pattern has emerged that has consistently proven to be a reliable predictor of when the next market top will occur.
The first 2-day life cross (red circles) that prints after the previous market top has been an accurate predictor of the time until the next market top since 2012.
At most that time is 745 days away and could be as little as 550 days away.
The market top is in not more than 14 weeks from now, mid May 2025. And potentially as early as March 10th at 681 days as with the 2021 bull run.
Is this time different?
Ww
Moving Averages
BTCUSD: Accumulation or Distribution?📉 The price dipped below EMA 50/200, likely triggering stops from retail traders. However, the low selling volume suggests large players might be accumulating liquidity at lower levels.
📊 Key levels to watch:
🔹 Break above 98K-100K with strong volume → Confirmation of Markup Phase (bullish continuation).
🔹 Drop below 90K with high volume → Potential Markdown Phase (distribution & further decline).
Volatility is rising. Stay cautious.
Keysight Technologies Sneaks HigherMany of the biggest technology names have struggled lately, but Keysight Technologies could be attempting a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the July 2023 peak of $172.72. The provider of network-testing equipment ended January making a new 52-week high above that level, which may suggest buyers are taking control.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in October. That may reflect a longer-term uptrend.
Third, the 8-day-exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising. Those signals may reflect a shorter-term uptrend.
Finally, bullish price gaps after the last two quarterly reports may reveal improving fundamentals.
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USDJPY - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 10.02.25) Overall Trend & Context:
The OANDA:USDJPY pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has reached highly significant support/demand levels. Lower time frame has given bullish indications, we can try to capitalize on this.
Technical Findings:
Price broke above the 200 EMA - this can act as dynamic support so watch current levels.
Demand zone was formed after sweeping internal liquidity (which resulted in an impulsive bullish break).
RSI shows overbought conditions - resulting in a pullback which is what we want to see to confirm price action (currently trading below the 50% level of the RSI)
Potential Scenarios:
Since we have seen a reaction off HTF supply zones we should wait for proper confirmations prior to entry.
If the demand fails, short positions should be considered - analysis will need to be adjusted to adapt to changing supply levels.
$SPY February 10, 2025AMEX:SPY February 10, 2025
15 Minutes
For the rise 595.99 to 608.13 AMEX:SPY retraced 61.8%. So, 601-602 is a good level to go long with SL 598.
Since the retracement was 61.8% double top is possible around 607-608 levels.
So looks good R:R ratio.
Foe the fall 6018.13 to 600.65 need to cross 605.5 for uptrend.
Hence 601-602 buy will have a target 604-605 levels.
But AMEX:SPY at the moment is below moving averages with 200 and 50 being around 603 to 604 levels which i expect to be resisted.
Hence no trade today.
XAUUSD BULLISHAccording to the wave theory there can be another upward direction move. If any sell impulse wave is formed we will go for a sell trade. But for now we will go for a buy trade and the sl we set here under the last swing low. SR SL TP are given in the chart. The result will be updated soon.
Follow me for more trade setups. I will post the high probability signal on H4 timeframe of XAUUSD.
Downward pressure on XAUUSD concerning geopolitical developmentReports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon have emerged. If confirmed, this could reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price .
On February 8, 2025, Lebanon formed a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, ending a prolonged political deadlock. The new administration aims to implement reforms to address Lebanon's economic crisis and to ensure the reconstruction of areas damaged during the recent conflict with Israel. The ceasefire agreement with Israel, initially set to expire, has been extended to February 18, 2025.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Shiba Inu AnalysisShiba Inu Analysis
Shiba Inu has recently experienced a downtrend, breaking through a significant support level. Currently, it appears to be retesting this level; however, this remains unconfirmed until the candle closes.
In my view, it would be prudent to await the closure of the current candle before contemplating a short position. I also believe that the pair is still aligned with the broader downward trend and has yet to complete its downward movement.
I would be interested in hearing your perspective on Shiba Inu's current market behavior. Please remember that market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct thorough analysis and consider risk management strategies before making any trading decisions.
Cheers!
Algorand (ALGO): Coin is Trading In Bullish Channel!Algorand seems to be in a bullish channel here where we might go for a re-test of the upper resistance zone (in midterm). Before that, we are looking for a downward movement in the local support trend!
More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy!
Swallow Team
Long term $180-$190 target. More downside likely short term.I think short term we can see a final push down. Company has way to much in OP EX and once it can figure out how to remove/cut the amount in half, this stock will show to investors that it has a plan for long term profitable growth.
Question is, which earnings report will it be and/or will they release news on lay offs once unemployment really spikes.
BUY THIS STOCK IN MY PINK ZONE AND HOLD 2-5 YEARS.
my main concern right now is AI hype flushing down and/or there cash on hand and free cash flow continues on its down trend...
RVSN Potential Reversal - AI Rail Paves the wayRail Vision is building behind the scenes.
There's interesting price action around this level. we might see it go lower for a big buyer and full fear but we believe this name will pave the way for great AI resources.
We can see that there's a potential push higher for upcoming summer mania. Clear skys ahead but be warned for any quick turns into caves or tunnels.
Could this go higher for longer? . Not Financial Advice. Risk at your own discretion.
CVS Health Corp | CVS | Long at $43Not much to write about here except the stock has reentered the "crash" simple moving average area (see green lines). Often, this signals an overall bottom, but it doesn't mean a further dip below $40 isn't possible in the near-term. Personally, I can't ignore this reentry and thus have started a position at $43 (after closing out a previous position in October in the $60's). The company has a lot of headwinds, but if Walgreens NASDAQ:WBA is also in trouble, is NYSE:CVS too big to fail in the short-term?
Target #1 = $53.00
Target #2 = $60.00
Target #3 = $65.00
Target #4 = $68.00
Las Vegas Sands | LVS | Long at $43.76Pros:
Earnings are forecast to grow 13.29% per year
Earnings grew by 18.4% over the past year
2.3% dividend yield
Cons:
Insider selling and exercising of options
Debt-to-equity ratio of 3.8x
Small price gap on the daily chart near $41 that may close prior to a move up.
If people can't buy houses, they will travel... thus, at $43.76, Las Vegas Sands NYSE:LVS is in a personal buy zone.
Targets
$50.00
$57.00
$59.00
OM: the most resilient crypto asset todayI'm setting up a buy trigger for OM. Among the crypto assets I track, this one has shown remarkable resilience. During today's market drop, most assets pulled back to the 200-period moving average, with even major market cap leaders like ETH and BNB breaking well below this key support level intraday. In contrast, OM remained strong, with its deepest decline barely dipping below the 20-period moving average.
Today's sharp market recovery indicates strong buying interest at lower prices, which is an undeniably bullish signal. However, given the market's recent streak of failed breakout attempts, I plan to approach this setup with caution.
I'm taking a modest position in OM if the trigger is activated. Due to the relatively wide stop-loss (-32%), I will allocate only 3% of my portfolio, limiting potential downside risk to -1%. On the upside, if the trade performs well, the projected return is 160%, translating to a +4,8% portfolio gain.
META & COST are overboughtMETA & COST are overbought. With a RSI by 80 and trading above it's outer ATR band of 3x standard deviations. Once momentum fizzles out, gravity will bring META & COST back down to SMA20. So here's a straightforward trading idea.
META levels:
ATR 23
SMA 20 = 653
SMA50 = 623
SMA100 = 598
SMA200 = 545
COST levels:
ATR 20
SMA 20 = 965
SMA50 = 963
SMA100 = 932
SMA200 = 882
META short trade idea:
short 715
stop 725
profit 655
COST short trade idea:
short 1060
stop 1070
profit 965
META options data:
2/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 20,489
Call Volume Total 25,697
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.80
Put Open Interest Total 105,207
Call Open Interest Total 131,858
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.80
3/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 8,533
Call Volume Total 19,062
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.45
Put Open Interest Total 101,527
Call Open Interest Total 110,511
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.92
4/17 expiry
Put Volume Total 4,053
Call Volume Total 5,625
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.72
Put Open Interest Total 32,737
Call Open Interest Total 53,495
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.61
COST options data:
2/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 4,458
Call Volume Total 5,217
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.85
Put Open Interest Total 11,521
Call Open Interest Total 12,621
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.91
3/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,210
Call Volume Total 3,064
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.05
Put Open Interest Total 25,964
Call Open Interest Total 22,294
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.16
4/17 expiry
Put Volume Total 592
Call Volume Total 1,388
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.43
Put Open Interest Total 10,602
Call Open Interest Total 8,988
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.18
A Review of Multiple Charts Using TDA and Fibonacci, SMAs, StochEach morning, my partner and I go live for members of our mentorship and/or provide them with a pre-market analysis video to help them identify setups, entries and exits for stock options trading. This is simply a peek inside the content created for members.
Pre-News & Pre-Market Open Analysis: US30 Great morning to you all!
Pre-News & Pre-Market Open Analysis:
Key Levels to Watch:
Identify confluences between your weekly (green), hourly (blue), and 15-minute (yellow) Fib levels.
Look for areas where multiple levels align—these are strong reaction zones.
Identify strong support/resistance levels from previous highs and lows.
News Event Considerations (7:30 AM CT):
Volatility will increase near the release.
Expect potential liquidity grabs before the real move happens.
Consider waiting for the first reaction before entering any trades.
Indicators Check:
RSI: Currently at ~53, suggesting neutral momentum—watch for overbought/oversold zones.
MACD: Looks like it's slightly negative, suggesting a pullback or weak momentum. If it starts crossing bullish, that could indicate a potential reversal.
Bollinger Bands: Price is near the upper band—watch for a potential retracement if momentum weakens.
Game Plan:
Before the News:
Mark potential trade setups based on your fib confluences.
Avoid early entries—let the market show its direction first.
After the News Release:
If price spikes into a key level (like a strong fib resistance/support), wait for confirmation (e.g., candlestick pattern or RSI divergence).
If market trends strongly after the release, look for pullbacks to enter in the direction of momentum.
Based on your chart and the Fibonacci retracements, here’s how we can mark potential trade zones:
Key Trade Zones to Watch:
1. Resistance Zones (Potential Sell Areas)
Around 45,000 - 45,085:
This aligns with a previous high and is near the weekly fib 0.786 - 0.886 zone.
If price spikes here after news, look for rejection signs (e.g., wicks, RSI divergence, or MACD weakening).
44,810 - 44,850 (Mid-range Resistance):
Overlap of 1H fib 0.618 level and the EMA zone.
If price rejects from this level before the news, it could indicate a weaker bullish push.
2. Support Zones (Potential Buy Areas)
44,574 - 44,483 (Major Support Zone):
1H Fib 0.618 + Weekly Fib 0.382 confluence.
If price drops here after the news, watch for bullish confirmations (strong candle closes, RSI oversold).
44,380 - 44,250 (Deep Pullback Buy Zone):
1H Fib 0.786 - 0.886 level and aligns with past consolidation.
If news causes a liquidity sweep, this could be a strong reversal area.
Trading Approach:
Pre-News:
No aggressive entries; observe price reaction to key levels.
During News:
Expect liquidity grabs and fakeouts before a real trend is set.
Post-News:
If price rejects from resistance → Look for sell setups.
If price drops to strong support zones and holds → Look for buy setups.
Kepp in mind this is just. a pre-market analisys, onces the news have passed we will have a better understanding of what the market can head towares too!
comment your thoughts down bellow.
Follow for more.
Regards,
Nozuk