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EURUSD LONGPrice swept below support around 1.1473, grabbing liquidity and quickly bouncing back — this is a classic Wyckoff spring setup. 📌 Key Levels Entry: Around 1.1500 Stop Loss: Below 1.1424 (spring low) Target 1: 1.1567 (range high) Target 2: 1.1614 (measured move) 🔍 Why I like this setup: Fake breakdown (spring) and quick recovery Buyers showed up right after the sweep Expecting price to return to the top of the range and possibly break higher . This a trade we hold 💡 A spring is where smart money steps in after trapping sellers — I'm following them. “I always say that you could publish my rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.”
Long
by theeOperator90
6/17 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning! Yesterday, gold opened with a gap-up and surged to around 3451, but failed to sustain above key resistance. After another failed attempt to break higher, prices gradually turned lower and finally broke below 3400, finding short-term support near 3382. The primary driver of this decline was a waning of geopolitical risk sentiment, which had previously fueled the rally. Additionally, the market is now pricing in expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, a factor that was likely preemptively reflected in price. 🔍 Fundamental Focus: Today’s U.S. session will feature a key news release, which may prove decisive for gold’s next directional move. With yesterday’s advance pullback, market dynamics are likely to be more volatile today. We recommend caution, especially ahead of the announcement. 📉 Technical View: Gold is currently in a post-decline consolidation phase. The main resistance lies between 3430–3450, while 3415 on the 30-minute chart also presents a short-term cap. For those entering long positions, target zones should remain conservative, ideally around 3412–3418, and then be adjusted depending on volume momentum and breakout structure. 📊 Weekly Structure Outlook: The weekly chart shows that gold is at a key trend inflection point. If no additional bullish catalysts emerge, the market is likely to develop into a bearish consolidation, with the next major downside target around 3200. 📌 Trading Plan (For VIP): ✅ Sell Zone: 3436–3466 ✅ Buy Zone: 3347–3323 ✅ Flexible Trade Zones: 3428 / 3415 / 3403 / 3392 / 3378 / 3362 / 3354
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
What on earth will happen to GOLD? why is it not up yet?XAUUSD GOLD returns to the consolidation area of ​​3388-3403 after falling and landing at support 3366. The strength of the SELLER still looks quite strong considering that there has been no confirmation of buyer power at all such as Bullish Engulfing or other large bullish candles. GOLD will still fall again and has the potential to reach the support range of 3350 - 3366 as long as there is no penetration of resistance 3408 Congratulations on yesterday's profit. Today we will try to wait and see the movement of GOLD again before determining the entry. R3 3500 R2 3427 R1 3408 PV 3379 S1 3366 S2 3350 S3 3286
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AbsoluteWillid
Tron (TRX) Price Prediction: Nasdaq Deal Fuels Bullish ForecastThe $210 Million Nasdaq Rumor: Deconstructing the Hype for a Realistic Tron (TRX) Price Prediction In the volatile theater of cryptocurrency, headlines can ignite market-moving frenzies, and few have been as potent as the recent whirlwind of news surrounding Tron (TRX). The prospect of a planned Nasdaq listing via a $210 million reverse merger, intertwined with the enigmatic presence of the Trump family, sent shockwaves through the community, promising a new era of mainstream legitimacy and sparking wildly bullish price predictions. However, as the dust settles, a clearer, more nuanced picture emerges—one that separates explosive rumors from the fundamental drivers that will truly dictate the future of Tron's price. The core of the excitement stemmed from a strategic deal involving SRM Entertainment, a Nasdaq-listed company specializing in theme park merchandise. In a stunning pivot, SRM announced it would rebrand as Tron Inc., initiate a substantial TRX treasury funded by a $100 million private equity investment, and appoint Tron's founder, Justin Sun, as an adviser. This "reverse merger" was widely interpreted as a backdoor for the Tron blockchain to gain a coveted spot on a major U.S. stock exchange, a move that would grant it unprecedented access to traditional capital and validation. Adding a layer of political intrigue, the deal was facilitated by an investment bank where Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. serve on the advisory board. This confluence of high finance, crypto ambition, and political association created a perfect storm for speculation. The stock price of SRM Entertainment skyrocketed over 500%, and the price of TRX saw a notable jump. However, the narrative quickly became more complex. Eric Trump clarified his position, denying any direct "public involvement" in the new company, despite expressing his admiration for Justin Sun and their established business connections. While the deal with SRM Entertainment is very real, its direct implications for the TRX token are more complex than a simple "Nasdaq listing." The transaction is for the corporate entity, which will hold TRX in its treasury, not for the decentralized TRX asset itself to be traded on Nasdaq like a stock. This distinction is critical. The move provides Tron with a publicly-traded vehicle and significant capital, but the ultimate value of TRX still hinges on the utility and adoption of the Tron network itself. Therefore, a realistic price prediction must look beyond the initial hype and analyze the bedrock of Tron's fundamentals. Deconstructing the Hype: The Nasdaq Deal and Trump Connection The plan for SRM Entertainment, a Florida-based supplier of toys and souvenirs, to morph into Tron Inc. is a masterclass in financial engineering. Through a reverse merger, a private company (in spirit, Tron) can go public by merging with an existing publicly-traded company (SRM), bypassing the rigorous and lengthy process of a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO). The deal, valued at up to $210 million upon full exercise of warrants, involves SRM receiving a $100 million equity investment from a private investor to initiate a "TRX Treasury Strategy." This strategy mirrors the approach of companies like MicroStrategy with Bitcoin, where the public company's assets are heavily invested in a specific cryptocurrency, making its stock a proxy for that asset. With Justin Sun serving as an adviser, the new Tron Inc. plans to implement a TRX staking program and even a dividend policy for its shareholders, further intertwining its fate with the Tron ecosystem. The involvement of the investment bank brokering the deal brought the Trump name into the headlines. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.'s roles on the bank's advisory board led to speculation about their involvement in the new Tron Inc. However, Eric Trump later clarified his position, separating his personal and business relationships from a formal executive role in the public venture, though the connection undeniably added to the initial media frenzy. Beyond the Rumors: Tron's True Fundamental Strengths With the Nasdaq hype contextualized, the real question for investors is: what is the intrinsic value of the Tron network? The answer lies in its undeniable dominance in one of the most crucial sectors of the digital economy: stablecoins. The Undisputed King of USDT The Tron network has become the world's primary settlement layer for Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin by market capitalization. The network hosts over $78 billion in USDT, a figure that has surpassed the amount on its main rival, Ethereum. This dominance is not accidental. Tron's architecture, which allows for high throughput and extremely low transaction fees, makes it the preferred network for USDT transfers, especially for retail users and in emerging markets. During a single month in mid-2025, the Tron network processed over $694 billion in USDT transfers through nearly 90 million contract interactions. The vast majority of USDT holders on Tron are retail users with balances under $1,000, highlighting the network's deep penetration into everyday peer-to-peer and remittance use cases. This immense and consistent utility generates real, sustained demand for the network, forming the most solid pillar of its valuation. A Growing DeFi and dApp Ecosystem While stablecoins are its main draw, Tron's Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem is also substantial. The network holds a Total Value Locked (TVL) of over $8 billion, placing it among the top layer-1 blockchains. Platforms like the lending protocol JustLend and the decentralized exchange SunSwap are key contributors to this activity. The network has processed over 10.5 billion transactions from more than 313 million user accounts, demonstrating a vibrant and active user base. Although a recent decline in TVL from its peak and slowing DEX volume has been observed, the sheer number of daily active users and transactions suggests a pivot towards non-DeFi dApps and peer-to-peer transfers, reinforcing its utility beyond pure financial speculation. Tron (TRX) Price Prediction: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook Given the strong fundamentals, particularly its role as the leading stablecoin platform, what can be expected from the TRX price? Technical Indicators As of mid-2025, TRX has shown resilience. Technical analysis reveals a generally neutral to bullish sentiment. The price has been consolidating in a horizontal channel, with key resistance and support levels being closely watched. Bullish signals, such as a "golden cross" and a bullish MACD crossover, suggest potential for upward momentum. A key indicator of its potential is its market-cap-to-TVL ratio, which, at 0.26, suggests the coin may be significantly undervalued compared to the value of the assets secured on its network. Price Forecasts for 2025 and Beyond Price forecasts for the end of 2025 vary but are generally optimistic, contingent on broader market conditions. • Conservative Outlook: A conservative forecast places the potential price of TRX in a range between $0.18 and $0.35 for 2025. A move toward the upper end of this range would depend on a sustained crypto bull market and continued growth in Tron's user base. • Bullish Scenario: An optimistic forecast suggests that if a full-blown "altseason" takes hold, TRX could surpass its previous highs and target levels between $0.45 and $0.70. Some long-term models even project a path toward $1.00 or higher by 2030, assuming Tron maintains its competitive edge and expands its use cases. • Bearish Scenario: Risks remain. A regulatory crackdown on stablecoins, particularly Tether, could disproportionately impact Tron. Furthermore, a recent $2 billion drop in its DeFi TVL, despite user growth, suggests a potential weakness in its financial ecosystem that warrants monitoring. In a bearish turn, TRX could fall back to support levels around $0.21 or lower. The "100x Gem" Fallacy The headlines promoting Tron's Nasdaq deal were often accompanied by mentions of speculative new tokens like "BTC Bull Token," promising astronomical 100x returns. It is crucial for investors to recognize this as a common marketing tactic that leeches onto legitimate news to promote highly speculative and often worthless assets. The future success of Tron will not be found in chasing such gambles, but in the sustained growth of its core network. The real "alpha" is in understanding the fundamental utility that drives billions of dollars in transactions daily, not in lottery-ticket tokens. Conclusion: A Bullish Continuation Built on Reality, Not Rumor The story of Tron's Nasdaq listing is a potent reminder of the crypto market's susceptibility to hype. While the reverse merger with SRM Entertainment is a significant strategic maneuver that provides Justin Sun's ecosystem with a public-facing entity and a war chest, it is not the magic bullet that guarantees a higher TRX price. The true bullish case for Tron is more mundane but far more powerful. It is the network's unparalleled dominance as the world's preferred highway for stablecoin transactions. This utility provides a constant, powerful demand for the network's resources. As long as Tron remains the fastest, cheapest, and most accessible platform for billions of dollars in daily USDT transfers, its intrinsic value will continue to grow. The Nasdaq deal is a catalyst, but the engine is the ecosystem. Investors looking for a bullish continuation should focus on the steady hum of that engine—the growth in active wallets, transaction counts, and stablecoin volume—rather than the fleeting roar of market rumors. Based on these fundamentals, a steady, upward trajectory for TRX seems not only possible but probable, with the potential to retest and surpass previous highs as the digital asset market matures.
Long
by bryandowningqln
J.B. Hunt Transport Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # J.B. Hunt Transport Stock Quote - Double Formation * (Diagonal) - *Shift & Entry | Completed Survey * (Diagonal) - *Pullback Feature | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Short Consecutive Range | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 155.00 USD * Entry At 140.00 USD * Take Profit At 117.00 USD * (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
PEPPERSTONE:JBHTShort
by TradePolitics
Cisco Is Pushing a Generational HighCisco Systems has climbed as AI investment helps power growth, and some traders may think the move will continue. The first pattern on today’s chart is the February 13 peak of $66.50. It was the highest level since September 2000, when the dotcom bubble was deflating. The networking giant come within $0.14 of that level on June 9 and remains in close proximity. Is a breakout coming? (If CSCO were to clear this year’s peak, investors may next eye $82, its previous all-time high from March 2000.) Next consider the May 15 closing price of $64.26 following strong quarterly results. The stock probed below the level last week and bounced. That may suggest old resistance has become new support. Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has stayed above the 21-day EMA. Such a sequence may reflect a short-term uptrend. Finally, Bollinger Band Width has dropped as price moves narrow. Could that tightening price action open the door to price expansion? Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:CSCO
by TradeStation
RGTI : First Long Position AreaNASDAQ listed Rigetti Computing Inc. stock is currently trading above the 50 and 200 period moving averages. Once it gained momentum, it later lost it but its outlook is not weak at the moment. Right now, if the Iran-Israel war uncertainty is overcome and if there is no bad news affecting the index, the gap may close. Risk/Reward ratio of 3.00 is a very valuable ratio to try with small position amounts. Risk/Reward Ratio : 3.00 Stop-Loss : 9.91 Take-Profit : 18.2 Regards.
NASDAQ:RGTILong
by Noldo
CORZ : Long Position with 2.5 Risk Reward RatioOur stock is trading on 50 and 200 period moving averages. (Timeframe : 1H) Our first target level could be the level where the gap closes. Stop - Loss can be placed around the 200 period moving average. Summary in light of this brief information: Risk/Reward Ratio : 2.51 Stop-Loss : 15.95 Take Profit Level : 11.745 Edit : Sorry, I couldn't pull down the end of the trend line, so it was a slightly crooked trend line, but it doesn't ruin the main idea. Regards.
NASDAQ:CORZLong
by Noldo
Eurofins Scientific SE Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Eurofins Scientific SE Stock Quote - Double Formation * (Diagonal) - *Shift & Entry | Completed Survey * (2nd Entry Area)) + *Lower Band Feature | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Long Consecutive Range * (TP2) = b / Short Consecutive Pullback | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100 - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 118.00 EUR * Entry At 123.00 EUR * Take Profit At 128.00 EUR * (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
PEPPERSTONE:ERF.FRLong
by TradePolitics
MGP Ingredients | MGPI | Long at $29.57MGP Ingredients NASDAQ:MGPI has been in "crash" phase since 2023 due to lower U.S. liquor consumption, a whiskey glut, a CEO resignation, a facility closure, and a shift to higher-margin business. While currently trading near $30, the book value is at $39, forward price-to-earnings is 8x, debt-to-equity is 0.4x (low), and some insiders have been awarded stocks and options (although, selling has been rather high, too). Earnings and revenue are expected to grow slowly beyond 2025, but this year is anticipated to be the worst in some time. The low expectations may already be priced in, but time will tell. While I do not plan to be a long-term holder of the stock, the price is within my "crash" simple moving average area and the fundamentals aren't terrible. If interest rates are lowered within the next year, I believe this could begin the turnaround for the company (although slow). Thus, at $29.57, NASDAQ:MGPI is in a personal buy zone for a swing trade. Targets: $35.00 (+18.4%) $40.00 (+35.3%)
NASDAQ:MGPILong
by WorthlessViews
Descending Triangle in Apple?Apple has struggled all year, and evidence of a downtrend may be growing in the tech giant. The first pattern on today’s chart is this month’s lower high relative to mid-May. Combined with the May 7 low of $193.25, some traders may think a descending triangle is taking shape. That’s a potentially bearish formation. Second, TradeStation data shows that AAPL is the only trillion-dollar company now trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 200-day SMA has also turned lower. Those points may confirm long-term price action is less bullish. Next, prices remaining below the falling 50-day SMA may signal intermediate-term weakness. Fourth, short-term trends may be weakening: The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA and MACD is falling. Finally, AAPL is one of the most active underliers in the options market. That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradeStation
Integra LifeSciences Holdings | IART | Long at $12.39Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corp NASDAQ:IART manufactures and sells surgical instruments, neurosurgical products, and wound care solutions for neurosurgery, neurocritical care, otolaryngology, orthopedics, and general surgery. The stock has fallen over the past few years due to earnings misses / lowered earnings per share guidance, slow revenue growth, and operational challenges / recalls. But the company has been around since 1989 (endured many ups and downs during that time), has over 4,000 employees, a book value near $20 (undervalued), a forward price-to-earnings between 6x-9x (depending on the source), and revenue growth beyond 2025 and into 2028. Debt is slightly high with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2x and a quick ratio near 0.8x (company may have difficulty meeting its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets), it is thus a risky play. But the valuation and potential turnaround should get some attention. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price has entered and exited my "crash" simple moving average area 3 times now (see green lines). While I think $10 is likely in the near-term, it appears the stock *may* be forming a bottom - especially given the book value is more than 60% from the current price. But, as always, medical device stocks are always a major investment risk, so due diligence is needed. Thus, at $12.39, NASDAQ:IART is in a buy zone with a note regarding the potential for a dip near $10 before a move up. Targets will be kept low for a swing trade. Targets: $15.00 (+21.0%) $16.50 (+33.2%)
NASDAQ:IARTLong
by WorthlessViews
Newmont Corp | NEM | Long at $48.00While gold prices have soared recently, gold mining stocks have lagged. Newmont Corp NYSE:NEM , the world's largest gold mining corporation, may be undervalued if the miners take off to catch up to the gold demand/price. Currently sitting near $48.00 and at a historical moving average that it will need to break to show a true trend reversal, NYSE:NEM is in a personal buy zone. Now, the price may break down at the simple moving average and test the patience of shareholders, but the long game may benefit those who can tolerate the volatility. Target #1 = $57.00 Target #2 = $71.00
NYSE:NEMLong
by WorthlessViews
BTC “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitics Could Delay ItBitcoin’s “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitical Shocks Could Delay the Breakout Deep dive into price action, derivatives, on-chain data, and the tug-of-war between Middle-East risk and crypto bull-run momentum ________________________________________ Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed 13. Disclaimers ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight $103 K–$108 K band, unable to confirm a breakout as Middle-East tensions push investors into hedging mode. • A Golden Cross—the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day—could flash within 10 trading sessions, historically adding +37 % median upside over the subsequent 90 days. • Options flow has flipped decisively toward puts, with the 25-delta skew hitting –10 %, its most bearish since the FTX collapse, signaling short-term anxiety even as long-term bets remain bullish. • On-chain metrics (exchange balances at six-year lows, HODLer supply at all-time highs) reveal structural demand; Glassnode notes a 656 % cycle advance despite a trillion-dollar market cap. • Analysts’ upside targets range from $140 K (Q3) to $270 K (October) and even $229 K based on the Golden Cross fractal. Yet a clean break of $104 K support opens room to $97 K first. ________________________________________ 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge Bitcoin entered 2025 with a blistering rally—spot ETFs hoovered nearly 200 K coins in four months, miners sold aggressively into strength, and macro tailwinds (Fed easing, USD weakness) fueled risk appetite. Then two macro curveballs hit: 1. Sticky U.S. core inflation revived “higher-for-longer” rate fears. 2. Israel–Iran hostilities spooked global markets, sending Brent crude to $76 and sparking a dash for USD liquidity. BTC, once heralded as “digital gold,” behaved like a high-beta tech stock: it slipped 7 % in 48 hours, tagging $103,200 before bargain hunters stepped in. As of this writing, price sits near $105,800—right on the 100-hour SMA. Whether we escape the range depends on which force proves stronger: geopolitical dread or the long-term structural bid. ________________________________________ 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA-50) crosses above the 200-day (SMA-200). In Bitcoin’s 14-year history, we have logged nine such events: Year Days to Cross 90-Day Return 180-Day Return 2013 51 +88 % +202 % 2015 73 +34 % +67 % 2019 46 +193 % +262 % 2020 38 +77 % +112 % 2023 59 +29 % +48 % Median 90-day gain: +37 % Median drawdown post-cross: –12 % We are ~$700 shy of triggering the cross (SMA-50 at $97.9 K, SMA-200 at $98.1 K and rising). Assuming volatility stays muted, the lines converge within two weeks, potentially firing a widely watched buy signal. But remember: the cross is lagging; smart traders anticipate, not react. ________________________________________ 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle Key intraday levels (Kraken feed): • Support 1: $104,000 – prior weekly low + bullish order-block • Support 2: $101,200 – 0.786 Fib retrace of the Feb–Mar impulse • Bear Pivot: $97,000 – 200-day EMA + high-confluence volume node • Resistance 1: $106,800 – last week’s swing high; three failed probes • Resistance 2: $108,500 – May monthly open • Bull Pivot: $113,000 – neckline of the March distribution range Monday’s bounce broke a declining trend-line from $110 K, printing a higher low—constructive, yet bulls require a daily close >$106.8 K to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. ________________________________________ 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts Deribit data (largest BTC options venue): • Put/Call Ratio: 0.62 last Friday → 0.91 today • 25-Delta Skew (1-month): –10 %, lowest since Nov-2022 • Max-Pain for April 26 expiry: $104 K (huge open interest) Translation: traders rushed to buy protective puts as Iran war headlines crossed. Market-makers, short those puts, delta-hedged by shorting spot or perpetual futures, adding downward pressure—classic gamma feedback loop. Yet term structure remains contango; June and September IVs price higher topside. Institutions appear to sell near-dated panic, accumulate long-dated calls—a bullish medium-term stance. ________________________________________ 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 1. Risk-Off Correlation: Despite “digital gold” narratives, BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits at 0.64; equities slide → crypto follows. 2. USD Liquidity Drain: War premium lifts oil, stoking inflation and forcing the Fed to delay cuts; higher real yields pressure non-yielding assets. 3. Regulatory Optics: Heightened national-security chatter emboldens lawmakers keen to scrutinize crypto, a perceived sanctions-evasion channel. 4. Regional Flows: The Middle-East hosts some of the largest sovereign-wealth pools; risk aversion could pause their crypto allocations. 5. Hence, every missile headline becomes a volatility catalyst. Still, flash-risk events fade quickly if energy supply stays intact, offering windows for BTC to re-assert its secular trend. ________________________________________ 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 Glassnode frames Bitcoin’s ongoing bull as “one of the most explosive relative to market cap gravity.” Highlights: • Cycle Return: 656 % from the $14 K November-2022 bottom—impressive given the asset is now >$2 T in free-float value, dwarfing 2017’s sub-$100 B base. • Exchange Balances: Just 2.02 M BTC on centralized venues—13-year low. • Realized Price (short-term holders): $92,500—suggests marginal buyers remain well in profit. • Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow: At 275 K BTC/day vs. 2021’s 550 K—implying HODLers are less willing to spend. Put simply: even after a seven-fold rally, supply scarcity persists. ________________________________________ 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve The April 20 adjustment saw difficulty dip 1.2 %, the first contraction since January. Why it matters: • Post-Halving Breathing Room: Block subsidy fell to 1.5625 BTC; a difficulty rollback cushions miner profit margins, lowering forced selling risk. • Hashrate Plateau: Network hashrate hovers at 640 EH/s, only 3 % off the ATH—miners remain confident. • Transaction Fees: Average fee per block = 0.37 BTC, still elevated by historical standards thanks to BRC-20 activity. Miners thus appear cash-flow stable, reducing downside pressure on spot markets compared to previous post-halving eras. ________________________________________ 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid Since MicroStrategy cracked the dam, 68 public companies now hold BTC on balance sheets, totaling 412,000 coins (~$43 B). Recent newcomers: Company Purchase Date BTC Added Avg Cost SemiconX Feb-2025 2,500 $94,800 Nordic Logistics Mar-2025 800 $98,200 Atlantech Energy Apr-2025 1,200 $101,500 Traits of corporate treasuries: • Long-Dated Liabilities: Align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cadence. • Low Turnover: None of the 68 have sold core holdings despite 80 % drawdowns in 2022. • Regulatory Transparency: SEC filings broadcast purchases, inviting copycat demand. This sticky bid stabilizes spot markets during macro squalls. ________________________________________ 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside Bearish Path (30 % probability) • Trigger: Israel–Iran broadens, Fed signals no cuts in 2025. • Price Action: Break $104 K, bulls capitulate at $97 K (200-day). • Depth: Could wick to $88–90 K (0.618 retrace) if macro gloom persists. Base Case (50 % probability) • Trigger: Skirmishes contained; oil cools, Fed cuts twice by December. • Price Action: Golden Cross confirms, BTC grinds to $128 K by September. • Highs: $140 K tap as ETF inflows resume. Bullish Path (20 % probability) • Trigger: Middle-East cease-fire + ETF FOMO round two + dovish Fed pivot. • Fractals: Prior Golden-Cross extensions averaged +120 % at extreme. • Price Action: $150 K by summer, $229 K (Fib 2.618 from 2022 low) by year-end. • Blow-Off: $270 K October spike before the next cyclical bear begins. ________________________________________ 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors Horizon Bias Instruments Risk Management Intraday (0–48 h) Range scalp $104–$107 K Perp futures (5× max), options gamma scalping Hard stop $103 K; position <1 % equity Swing (2–8 wks) Buy pullbacks ahead of Golden Cross Spot, dated futures roll, 1-month $110 K calls Stop $97 K daily close; size 5–10 % Position (3–6 mo) Accumulate for $140–150 K target Spot, June/Sept call spreads ($120/150) Hedge via 25 % put collar Long-Term (1–4 yr) Maintain core stash; ignore noise Cold storage, DCA Re-balance only when price doubles Optional hedge: Long Gold / Short BTC ratio spread as a geopolitical shock absorber; ratio 1.3 currently, mean-reverts to 1.1 post-crises. ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed Bitcoin stands at a crossroads: a textbook Golden Cross beckons, ETF inflows smolder, miners relax, and corporate treasuries drip-feed demand. Yet war headlines and a cautious options market act as sandbags on the balloon. History says macro shocks slow, not stop secular bull cycles. Unless Middle-East conflict strangles global liquidity or the Fed slams the brakes far harder than priced, BTC’s higher-time-frame structure remains bullish. Expect turbulence, embrace risk controls—but don’t mistake a weather delay for a busted engine. ________________________________________ 13. Disclaimers This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves substantial risk; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Block Inc Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Block Inc Stock Quote - Double Formation * (A+ Set Up)) At 85.00 USD | Completed Survey * (2nd Entry Area)) + Anchored VWAP - *A+ | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Long Consecutive * (TP2) = b / Short Consecutive | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 67.00 USD * Entry At 61.00 USD * Take Profit At 52.00 USD * (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
PEPPERSTONE:XYZ.US_24Short
by TradePolitics
Federal Realty Trust Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Federal Realty Trust Quote - Double Formation * (Reversal Argument)) At 120.00 USD | Completed Survey * (A+ SIgnal)) - *Swing Low | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Long Consecutive * (TP2) = b / Short Consecutive | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 87.00 USD * Entry At 95.00 USD * Take Profit At 105.00 USD * (Neutral Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Neutral
PEPPERSTONE:FRT
by TradePolitics
XRP | SHORT CRIPPLE to $2XRP is currently trading BEARISH, since we're seeing a trade right on top of the current support level. The more times a support level is testes, the weaker it becomes. Therefore, the current support may break and then it's a free-fall to $2. Additionally, with the price trading UNDER the moving averages in the 4h, we can confirm a bearish sentiment from a technical indicator perspective. With a fairly tight SL, and a modest TP, the risk is low with this short setup: ___________________ BINANCE:XRPUSDT
Short
by Crypto-Check-
GoPro | GPRO | Long at $1.35NASDAQ:GPRO is a strong brand name, but with a dying userbase / lack of growth. The company has no major turnaround planned, but the chart is interesting. The stock seems to be currently consolidating as the historical simple moving average (white line) is working its way down toward the price - which often leads to a jump. Another candidate for the Santa Claus rally? Or, will the "value" lead to an acquisition? Nothing is guaranteed, but something may be brewing. While not a long-term "buy and hold" candidate for me (personally, unless the business changes or growth seems relevant), it looks very intriguing from a technical analysis perspective. Thus, at $1.35, NASDAQ:GPRO is in a personal buy zone. Target #1: $1.70 Target #2: $2.00 Target #3: $2.50 Target #4: $2.88 (if some good news emerges...)
NASDAQ:GPROLong
by WorthlessViews
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