USDCHF May End Daily Accumulation SoonRSI Divergence on Daily TF shows slowing down of overall weekly downtrend.
May sweep the bottom range of Daily FVG (0.8560) after Fed Chair Powell gives his speech, and release of GDP Growth rate QoQ Final on Sep. 26.
Then may dive down for the manipulation (0.8350) to sweep bottom liquidity before the bullish distribution in the coming days until next week to target the Weekly FVG (0.8750)
Confluences on Daily TF:
+ RSI Divergence
+ 50 Moving Average (pink)
+ 200 Moving Average (yellow)
+ Bollinger band oscillation
+ Volume profile
+ Wycoff Pattern Distribution
Moving Averages
Novo Nordisk could be dropping 15% from hereLooking at Novo Nordisk and the fundamental I have a hard time thinking Novo would drop further at this point. However the technical setup indicates that if we don't hold the current level we could drop more than 15% from here.
- The head and shoulder is complete now we just need to see if we can get a follow through.
- Closing price Friday was below the 200 daily moving average.
The recent price drop is caused by a dissapoint in early trial results of their pill Monlunabant.
DAX continues to trade around the all-time highs.DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 19050. Our short term bias remains positive. 50 4hour EMA is at 18663. A Morning Doji Star formation has been posted at the low.
We look to Buy at 18735 (stop at 18655)
Our profit targets will be 18935 and 18995
RR 2,5
Resistance: 18821 / 18900 / 19049
Support: 18800 / 18704 / 18600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Amazon - Buying Pullbacks & Cyclical High Expected SoonHere is what I am watching on Amazon.
-We need to be aware that there is bearish divergence setting up on the quarterly, monthly & weekly charts. HOWEVER, this divergence is not yet confirmed, and is therefore not actionable trade intel at the present moment. We need to monitor these divergences, because if they confirm, they imply significant price moves in Amazon share price.
-MAC strategy for the Quarterly, Monthly & Weekly charts remain bullish. Any pullbacks into the bottom of the MAC are BUY opportunities. I do not blindly buy the bottom of the channels, but utilize lower timeframe entry techniques at these levels to trigger into a position. We are still BULLISH Amazon.
-Cycles suggest that Amazon could put in a cyclical high any time between now and October 10th, before putting in a major cyclical low at the end of October. I would like to see this play out to provide us with nice buy opportunities at the bottom of the MAC's.
Google - Looking For Sell Triggers Around 171This video provides an overview of the things that I am watching for Google right now.
-We need to monitor the quarterly, monthly & weekly divergences that are currently setup, but not yet confirmed. These are not actionable right now, but they definitely need our attention. If confirmed, they imply some very significant moves in this market.
-We can see that the Monthly is still bullish, and we had a monthly MAC entry confirm on the Daily on September 13th. This trade still has not hit its targets, with the first being 169.69 (what a great number). The second target being 180. I would not be surprised to see Google trade up to 169.69 sometime soon.
-The Weekly chart is confirmed bearish for the MAC strategy. What this means is that any rallies into the weekly MAC high are opportunities to sell on the H6 chart. I'll be looking for sell triggers if price trades into the 171 level (Weekly MAC high).
-Threw in some cycles, for fun.
Have a great week.
50 SMA Rising - Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising - Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising - Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising - Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising - Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
WFC - Wells Fargo ABOVE 200SMA & 200EMANYSE:WFC crossed both 200EMA and 200SMA.
ROC and RSI are confirming the direction of the price.
However, DMI+ is still below DMI-, DMI- couldn't keep the strength to keep the negative direction and so it's losing strength with ADX changing direction close to DMI+. With the DMI+ already crossing DMI- in the 4hours time.
Volume it's increasing together with the price, highlighting the increase in demand
MU - Back above $100 soon?MU has been basing in the $80-90 range all month. This coincides with support from early in the year. Above $91.05 which puts it above the 300 day SMA. If fit holds this level, I believe this can make a strong move back above $100. 1st target is $98, a hold there and the 2nd target is $109.
SWING IDEA - GLOBUSSPRNSE:GLOBUSSPR has found its Swing Low levels at 710, which has also formed as a good Support as of now.
MACD levels are also moving upward steadily since the last few years indicating a good move upward.
If the market condition is stable for the next few weeks, we can see this stock moving up too.
Do not expect the stock to suddenly rally up as there is not much news about the stock in the recent months, so the Price movement could be pretty slow yet steady too.
Take this trade only based on your Risk Appetite and Risk Management.
SWING IDEA - GOLDIAMNSE:GOLDIAM bags INR 600m worth of order for Gold Jewelry.
In addition, even the MACD is about to make a crossover on the weekly charts. This can indicate a good move upward as it comes at the same time that even the company has bagged a very huge order.
If everything goes well, the stock could easily hit the next Support/Resistance zone very comfortably and further up too.
Long term $180-$190 target. More downside likely short term.I think short term we can see a final push down. Company has way to much in OP EX and once it can figure out how to remove/cut the amount in half, this stock will show to investors that it has a plan for long term profitable growth.
Question is, which earnings report will it be and/or will they release news on lay offs once unemployment really spikes.
BUY THIS STOCK IN MY PINK ZONE AND HOLD 2-5 YEARS.
my main concern right now is AI hype flushing down and/or there cash on hand and free cash flow continues on its down trend...
NVIDEA - Poised for a Breakout: Which Way Will It Go?NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is currently consolidating between lowering highs and rising lows, forming a symmetrical triangle. There are two possible support lines: one starting from October 2022 and another from February 2024. I’m leaning toward the 2022 support, as it lines up with the 150-day moving average (MA150), making it more reliable.
The stock is trapped between two key horizontal levels:
$140 resistance (all-time high).
$102 support, a major level to watch for any breakdown.
A breakout above $140 or a break below $102 could lead to significant moves.
NVIDIA is leading the AI wave, and demand for their chips is incredibly strong, with big partnerships with companies like Microsoft and Amazon continue to drive the momentum.
This, combined with solid technicals, makes me lean toward a bullish breakout.
What are your thoughts? Do you think NVIDIA will break higher or lower as it nears the triangle’s end?
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching).
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish.
Spread: Bearishly diverging.
ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity.
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
EMA, SMA and which one to choose? Educational PostArticle Written by Author of the book: The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation.
There is always a lot of debate while using chart whether to use EMA or SMA.
EMA = Exponential Moving Average.
SMA = Simple Moving Average.
In the below chart Black and Orange lines represent 50 and 200 EMA. Blue and the Lavender line represent the 50 and 200 SMA.
Simple Moving average is the actual average of the kind of SMA you are using that is 50 SMA is average of last fifty closings. Exponential moving average gives more importance to the recent price and less to the past prices in that order. For example, if you are calculating 50 EMA the weightage given to yesterday’s price is more than the weightage given to the price before 49 days. I personally use EMA for my charts when I want to take entry to some stocks. As I feel recent price influence the move of the candles more than past prices for future upward movement. At the same time for Profit booking I give more importance to SMA and 21 SMA in particular as I base my trailing stop losses based on monthly average.
To know more about EMAs and SMAs and importance of EMAs in particular you can read my book. The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available in Paperback and Kindle version on Amazon where I have explained my Mother, Father and Small Child theory where I consider 50 EMA as mother line 200 EMA as father line and movement of a candle is compared to movement of a child playing in garden. In a very simple way I have tried to explain Techincal analysis related to stock price movement and their relation to EMAs.
Now whichever EMA or SMA you use. What I feel is you should remain consistent with it. Do not keep switching between the two. As you can see from the chart there is no major difference in position of both lines in the chart specially when the EMA or SMA is smaller in number. Moving averages are very helpful in determining the trend of the stock. Chances of its correction and support the stock price will get while falling down or resistance it might face if the price is below those lines.
EMAs and SMAs are excellent support when the stock price is above them and become fierce resistnace when the stock price is below these lines. Thus knowing where they are with respect to price is very important. My advice will be EMA or SMA should be part of your chart. Which one you use is a matter of choice. Staying consistent to the moving average you choose is important as Harivansh Rai Bachhan the famous Poet has said in his most famous poem Madhushala and I quote him, “Rah Pakad tu ek chala chal pa jayega Madhushala”. Meaning be consistent to your path and you will find your target.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.