Stock market correction in 2025??I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025.
1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates)
2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times.
3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market.
4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency.
5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback.
These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day.
Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say.
But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets.
Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
Moving Averages
Nas100 updateTechnical Analysis:
Trend:
• The market is still in an overall uptrend, given the ascending channel structure.
• However, the recent break below the midline and rejection at the upper boundary suggest possible short-term bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
1. Support:
• 21,200–21,220: Current price level and a critical area to hold. A break below could lead to further downside.
• 20,766 (blue horizontal line): Major support and a previous demand zone. A test of this level is possible if the bearish pressure continues.
2. Resistance:
• 21,500: The midline of the channel and the 50-period MA align here, making this a key resistance zone to watch.
• 21,800–22,212: The upper channel boundary and previous swing highs. Price needs to break above this to regain strong bullish momentum.
Moving Averages:
• Shorter MAs (blue lines) are crossing below longer MAs (red lines), suggesting bearish momentum in the short term.
• The 200-period MA (thicker red line) is still acting as dynamic support, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary, adding confluence to the 20,766 level.
Possible Scenarios:
1. Bullish Case:
• If the price bounces from 21,200–21,220 and breaks back above the 21,500 resistance zone, it could retest 21,800 and potentially the channel’s upper boundary near 22,200.
• Entry: After a bullish breakout and retest above 21,500.
• Target: 21,800 and 22,200.
• Stop Loss: Below 21,200.
2. Bearish Case:
• If the price fails to hold 21,200, a move down to the 20,766 support zone is likely.
• A break below 20,766 could invalidate the ascending channel, leading to further downside toward 20,400 or lower.
• Entry: On a clean break and retest below 21,200.
• Target: 20,766 and 20,400.
• Stop Loss: Above 21,500.
Indicators to Watch:
• Volume: Look for increasing volume during key breakouts or breakdowns.
• RSI/MACD: Watch for divergence signals to confirm potential reversals near critical levels.
Conclusion:
The market is at a critical juncture. The reaction at 21,200 will determine whether bulls regain control or bears push the price lower toward the 20,766 support zone. Stay cautious and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
$SPY January 8, 2025AMEX:SPY January 8, 2025
15 Minutes.
592 was broken.
For the rise 580.5 to 599.7 AMEX:SPY has retraced 61.8%.
For the fall 597.75 to 586.78 592 to 594 will be level to short SL 596
Since AMEX:SPY below all moving averages the short at 592 - 594 will give a target around 584-585 levels in 15 minutes.
For the day long only above 596.
BTC Selloff Reversal. Uptrend ContinuesBTC selloff after Powell's comments Wednesday took us down to the 50 day MA. A correction I've been anticipating. This occurred multiple times on the way up last cycle. The selloff produced a descending broadening wedge on the way down. This often leads to a reversal and that's what I'm predicting and starting to see unfold. My target is 102.3 but i'll be moving SL up as I go.
Fibonacci Support & Resistances for Nifty (Medium term outlook).Important Fibonacci support for Nifty drawn on daily line chart of Nifty is at 23349. Below 23349 closing bears can have a field day and can create havoc but that looks less likely as of now. The closing today is 23207 which is just above 200 days EMA or the father line which is a good sign. Father line was at 23700. On the upside the Fibonacci resistance for Nifty seem to be at 23902, 24170 (Important Mother line Resistance) 24236, 24467, 24780 and finally Fibonacci Golden ratio from the current levels is at 25185. It will take some doing from the Bulls to close above this level. This presents the medium time frame outlook for the Nifty.
RSI indicator also seems to have taken an upward swing but mid level is yet to be crossed for that indicator.
MACD indicator suggests that Moving averages are fighting hard to converge and bring back some bullish momentum into the market to infuse some life into the Bull who are trying to come out of comma.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
$SPY January 7, 2025AMEX:SPY January 7, 2025
15 Minutes.
Yester opened gap up. But was not strong and started to reverse.
So today holding 594-595 is important.
It represents 23% retracement for the rise 580 to 599.
Today buy will be above 598.5 and the moment I see 592 strong supports being 200 averages in 15 minutes.
If you can go down to 5 minutes, we opened above 200 and retraced back to 200 support and was up above 200 averages in 5 minutes the whole day.
Support, Resistance and Bollinger Band suggest limited downside.I have just drawn Supports, Resistance, Mother, Father lines and added Bollinger band to Nifty chart. The indication is limited downside for now in Nifty unless the Chinese Virus is overplayed in the market by the bears and other forces. My discussion with medical fraternity and other knowledgeable people suggest that the threat of HPMV is overplayed and mortality rates might not be as high as COVID in the recent virus outbreak. This is the information I have however I advise utmost caution would wish you to verify the information with friends in the medical field in your knowhow. Currently Bollinger band is not suggesting a heavy downside. However things will be more clear by end of this week as the market plays out. Not more than 2 to 5% (max) down side is visible to me in the short term unless there is a global catastrophe of massive order. RSI has taken a turn hopefully soon it will embark towards bullishness.
Supports for Nifty Remains at: 23249, 23466, 23555. Below 23249 flood gates for further downside can open.
Resistances for Nifty: 23720, 23795, 23855 (Mother line or 50 Hours EMA), 23942 (Mid-Bollinger band level), 24061 (Father line or 200 Hours EMA), 24146, 24231 and finally 24326 (Bollinger band top).
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NVDA closing above resistanceNvidia closed above resistance yesterday and I've placed my buy stop above Mondays high for entry on a continuation of the move higher, both short term and medium term trends are up according to the EMA's and rising lows. My stop will be just below the red candle after the Shooting Star that indicated the double top was in place.
My stop will trail up as price moves higher and forms new support levels.
This is a third entry for me on Nvidia as i continue to build the position.
Trade well and profits follow!
SUI is about to FLY HIGH!So, there was a lot of FUD about SUI being rejected at the $4.98 resistance level and yesterday it passed it. Today we are seeing a healthy test above $5.00 which means that support will now be $4.98 and an upward climb to $10.00 shall commence. Im loading up bags at the daily/weekly close today once the above is confirmed. as long as BTC doesn't go bearish then there is no reason SUI wont continue this climb. Definitely a great opportunity on a solid project. -This is not financial advice...
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
$SPY January 5, 2025AMEX:SPY January 5, 2025
My first post for the year 2025.
60 Minutes.
Downtrend intact.
For the fall 602.47 to 580.50 50% retracement done as there a divergence for the 2 lows 580.91 and 580.50.
So, for the rise 580.0 to 592.6 on Monday holding 587.5-589 levels we can expect 595 as initial target.
for the steep fall from 607 to 580 i would like some more consolidation.
Technically buy will be triggered only above 610 on closing basis in daily.
No trade for me on Monday. Not a good setup.