$SPY January 30, 2025AMEX:SPY January 30, 2025
15 Minutes.
We had AMEX:SPY between 604 and 599. But no trade as setup was difficult.
We have too many long bars inside the box.
Foe the fall 610.78 to 594.93 AMEX:SPY is between 599 and 605 which represents23.6% and 61.8% retracements.
So, sell is below 598 and buy above 606 only.
For the day for the fall 605.38 to 599.22 604.5 need to cross for a target 606-607 levels.
If the box breaks on either side, we should get a 4 to 5 $ move.
Moving Averages
Ethereum (ETH): Will Move More Up / Waiting For ResistanceEthereum has reached a smaller resistance zone but not the one we are looking for!!
We are still waiting for smaller growth to happen on ETH, which would then possibly show us there a dominance from sellers, which then again would activate our Plan A.
So all attention to that resistance zone, which is near EMAs!
Swallow Team
Russell 2000 and 50DMA: The Mix for Explosive MovesWith fresh data on US GDP and inflation arriving over the next two days, Russell 2000 futures look interesting as they close in on the key 50DMA.
The index is testing minor resistance at 2312.8 in thin Asian trade, with the 50DMA not far above at 2323.5. The focus on the latter comes from its tendency to spark explosive moves once the price either breaks or bounces from it.
Over this week and last, bulls have repeatedly probed the level only to be thwarted by bears, painting a picture of a stalemate that may be eventually be resolved in a similar manner. The string of doji candles since only reinforces this view.
If we see a sustained break above the 50DMA, longs could be established above it with a stop either below it or at 2312.8 for protection. 2386.6—which has acted as both support and resistance previously—is one potential target. A break above that would put a retest of record highs on the table.
Alternatively, another rejection at the 50DMA would be a strong signal that a bearish bias may be warranted.
Mixed signals are emerging from momentum indicators, with MACD pushing higher while RSI (14) sits in a minor downtrend, though it’s threatening to shift higher.
Upcoming economic data screens as important for small-cap US stocks given their cyclical characteristics and reliance on capital markets for funding.
Good luck
DS
NVDA | Trade PlanPrice was successfully bouncing off of EMA support until now
I drew out the major pathways of pivot for a better understanding of what price will most likely do next
As we analyze these pivots you'll notice that buyer become weaker in each wave giving sellers the opportunity for deeper corrections
The last wave (3) had a correction so deep that it basically used the top of wave 2 for support (SnR)
Seeing this will give us the idea that sellers will most likely look to head back to that major pivot as wave 4 barley made a Higher High creating divergence, and has already broke below the high of the last wave
The next steps I would like to see price action inch its way up to somewhat fill the gap above to only see further selling towards $100 - $97 area.
Note:
This is a price action/wave analysis, the purpose of doing this is to have another perspective without having to rely on a chart pattern
When we look at it this way we can have a better anticipation on what buyers are going to do next.
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Global Payments | GPN | Long at $110.67Global Payments NYSE:GPN
Pros:
4.6 million companies use the payment service, operate in over 100 countries, and execute over 50 billion transactions per year
Has aggressively repurchased shares and plans to return $7.5 billion to shareholders over the next three years
Revenue rise from $4.9 billion in fiscal year 2019 to $10 billion in Q3 of 2024 (increasing every year)
EPS anticipated to grow to $16.40 by 2027 (2023 it was $10.41)
Has a dividend (0.9%)
Debt to equity = 0.77x (low)
Price is within my selected historical moving average area (often leading to a rise) and overall downward trend may be reversing or flattening
Cons:
Large insider selling, but only a little buying in comparison
Price gap near $95 may get closed prior to a move up
Unstable dividend
While the price may dip in the near-term, NYSE:GPN is in a personal buy zone at $110.67.
Targets:
$122.00
$130.00
$155.00
$210.00 (very long-term outlook)
$ALGOUSD Correction A,B,CNot financial advice!
COINBASE:ALGOUSD It seems so far it has lost the 50MA if it doesn't recover or bounces at the 100MA it will continue to drop to the 200MA which will align with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. and it will be a perfectly A,B,C correction for a wave 2, time will tell us the outcome.
$SPY January 29, 2025AMEX:SPY January 29, 2025
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY was around 604 levels most of the time yesterday. This sideways helped the moving averages to rise.
Also 604 was 61.8% retracement for the larger fall from 610 to 594 levels. Hence was resisted yesterday.
It was also 1.618 extension for the rise 594 to 599 to 596 level.
Today holding 602 levels i have a target 606-607 levels.
I will sell below 600 for 598.5 levels.
R: R on sell is not much favorable. So, i will not sell at the moment.
Trump Coin Marked the top in Solana - Bullish again at 1000maEver since the hype and network crowding caused by Trump coin on the weekend before Inauguration Day, Solana seems to have peaked and had trouble breaking out higher.
Add to that the new uncertainty from DeepSeek ai into tech, and the mood has soured in speculative assets.
In my opnion, short is the way for me for now, as solana and bitcoin are above all moving averages. And I will go neutral below 200 day moving aveages, and very bullish below 1000 da ema.
SPY vs FOMCTomorrow 1/29 at 2pm FOMC interest rate decision followed by a press conference at 2:30pm. As you can see on this SPY 1 day chart, FOMC days and the week following has a checkered past for bulls.
Moving average levels:
SMA20 = 593
SMA50 = 596
SMA100 = 585
SMA200 = 560
7/3124
5.5%
9/18/24
5%
11/7/24
4.75%
12/18/24
4.5%
1/29/25
expected 4.5%
SPY options data:
1/31 expiry
Put Volume Total 214,435
Call Volume Total 181,522
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.18
Put Open Interest Total 1,958,680
Call Open Interest Total 511,620
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.83
2/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 115,166
Call Volume Total 87,489
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.32
Put Open Interest Total 2,491,624
Call Open Interest Total 637,118
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.91
CYCLE 4 | 200 Week SMA ATH Estimation MethodA quick post to capture the current observed relationship with BTC cycles and the 200W SMA.
When the Horizontal Prine Line (Green) from prior Cycle ATH meets with the 200W SMA (Aqua), this has traditionally approximated the next BTC heigh in the following cycle.
Using this approach, we have estimated where this in time could occur for the current cycle.
Will be interesting to see how this tracks in Cycle 4.
JetBlue Airways | JBLU | Long at $5.92JetBlue NASDAQ:JBLU - Earnings and revenue beat today, stock drops -26% by noon.
2025 Outlook:
"For the first quarter of 2025, JetBlue expects its available seat miles (ASM) to decline 2% to 5% year-over-year, with revenue per ASM projected to range from a 0.5% decline to a 3.5% gain, while analysts had expected the metric to rise 5% year-over-year. JetBlue said it also expects cost per ASM to rise 8% to 10% in the first quarter. The airline also expects cost per ASM to rise 5% to 7% for the full fiscal year, with revenue per ASM projected to rise 3% to 6% compared to the metric staying flat in 2024."
Travel is increasing rapidly from the pandemic lows and if oil continues to drop, airlines will continue to experience a boom. This outlook may be overly negative as "protection" while the company further moves toward profitability.
My only concern is there is a price gap on the daily chart near $4.00 that is still open (and could be filled in the near future. But, from a technical analysis perspective, the bottom of my historical simple moving average line today is $5.90. It may bounce there, or shakeout shareholders for a while to test the $4 range. Regardless, JetBlue is a mid-level ranked airline that is, indeed, moving toward profitability - it may just take it getting through 2025 to gain investor confidence.
Initial entry position started at $5.92.
Target:
$7.95
AAPL earnings next ThursdayApple Q1 earnings are on Thursday 1/30 at 4:30pm. Apple (AAPL) reported earnings of 1.64 per share on revenue of 94.93 billion for Q4 ending September 2024. The consensus earnings estimate was 1.49 per share on revenue of 94.48 billion. The company beat expectations by 0.61% while revenue grew 6.07% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said during its conference call it expects Q1 revenue to grow in the low to mid-single digits, or revenue of approximately 120.77 billion to 128.54 billion with gross margins of 46.0% to 47.0%, which calculates to earnings of approximately 2.19 to 2.47 per share.
This long AAPL trade idea is based off SMA200 support at 221, RSI is oversold and it's printing a bullish reversal hammer this morning. Therefore, it's a great long entry position with low risk & high probability, heading into earnings on next Thursday.
Q1 consensus:
EPS = 2.36
Revenue = 124.1 B
SMA200 = 221
Trade idea:
long = 222
stop = 219
profit = 240
Options data:
1/31 expiry
Put Volume Total 10,866
Call Volume Total 25,128
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.43
Put Open Interest Total 76,428
Call Open Interest Total 126,251
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.61
2/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,441
Call Volume Total 11,700
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.29
Put Open Interest Total 224,398
Call Open Interest Total 315,905
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.71
3/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,008
Call Volume Total 12,900
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.16
Put Open Interest Total 298,306
Call Open Interest Total 317,092
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.94
SCHW's Weekly Pour: A Cup, a Handle, and a Bullish Refill?Been tracking SCHW, and this chart is shaping up to be something big—potentially a breakout from a range that’s been developing since early 2022. Price is pressing up against key resistance around $95-$100, and a clean break above this level could confirm a multi-year breakout, opening up the possibility of a much larger trend move. With Fibonacci extensions lining up at $150 and $200, this could be one of those slow-burn setups that eventually pays off in a big way. Let’s break it down.
Fibonacci Extensions and Multi-Year Price Targets
The way this chart is structured, $95-$100 is the final boss. If price convincingly clears that level, it breaks a massive range that’s been in place for over two years. If that happens, $150 (the 161.8% Fib extension) and $200 (the 261.8% extension) are the next major upside targets. These aren’t short-term price points—this is the kind of move that could play out over multiple years. But historically, when a stock coils for this long and then breaks out, the measured move potential is huge.
Moving Averages and Long-Term Trend Shift
Right now, we’ve got price trading above both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, signaling that momentum has already started to shift. The 50-week MA is curling upwards, and if we see it hold above the 200-week, that would mark a long-term trend shift that typically aligns with sustained upside moves.
Mapping Out the Breakout Scenarios
If we do get a breakout, here’s how I see it playing out:
1️⃣ Break Above $100 → Multi-Year Uptrend Begins – A confirmed break and hold above $100 shifts the entire structure bullish, setting up an eventual run to $150 and possibly $200 over the next couple of years. This would be the full resolution of the pattern that has been developing since early 2022.
2️⃣ Rejection at $95-$100 → Pullback Before Breakout – If price gets stuffed at resistance, we could see a pullback to the $75-$80 zone before another breakout attempt later in 2025. This would act as a final shakeout before the bigger move.
----------------------------------------------------------
All eyes on $95-$100. That’s the level that determines whether this just grinds sideways for another year or finally starts a major new uptrend. If it breaks, we’ve got a clear roadmap to $150 and $200 in the coming years.
Curious if anyone else is watching this. Are we about to see the start of something big, or is there one more fakeout before the real move?
Not financial advice. Just charting things out. Let’s see what happens.
Uptrend in Regions Financial?Regions Financial leaped to new record highs after Donald Trump was reelected as U.S. President. Now, following a pullback, some traders may think its uptrend remains in effect.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price range between $23 and $24. RF tested and held the bottom of this channel in the second half of December and again in the first half of January. The stock leaped above $24 on January 15 and has remained there since. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That may reflect a longer-term bullish trend.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD is also rising. Both of those signals may indicate bulls are taking charge over the shorter term.
Finally, the current price area is near previous highs from 2022 and 2023. Further gains from here could be viewed as a long-term breakout.
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#ZECUSDT #1h (ByBit) Falling broadening wedge breakoutZcash regained 50MA support and broke out bullish on hourly, looks good for short-term recovery towards 200MA resistance and more.
⚡️⚡️ #ZEC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (10.0X)
Amount: 4.8%
Current Price:
49.41
Entry Targets:
1) 48.62
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 52.63
Stop Targets:
1) 46.61
Published By: @Zblaba
$CRYPTO:ZEC BYBIT:ZECUSDT.P #Zcash #Privacy z.cash
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +82.5%
Possible Loss= -41.3%
Estimated Gaintime= 2-3 days
EUR/GBP - Potential Short Day TradeHi all..
Price on HTF is currently Bullish to make sure to use risk management here. This is a pullback trade hunter into HTF Demand zones.
This LTF Trade Consists of a internal protected High for price to return back into a the discount zone. We can see nice slow price action heading slightly bullish hoping before we see a nice drop.
Entry is set at two positions:
First being a simple Demand zone
Second being a Mitigation Block just under a FVG telling me price wants to hunt that Imbalance
Good Luck if you decide to Follow
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$SPY January 28, 2025AMEX:SPY January 28, 2025
15 Minutes
The divergence paid off again.
Now we again wait for moving averages 9 and 21 to go above 50,100 and 200 to initiate any longs.
For the fall 608.15 to 594.64 61.8% retracement is around 602-603 levels.
A good level to short SL 605.5.
I expect sideways today.
USD/CHF | Bearish Season IncomingHigher timeframes (3-Day+) are at a nice resistance zone to see short plays only as we head into the next season
We got a ~600 pip swing but first I'd like to see maybe one more long position back to the main resistance zone for a high sell entry up top and then scaling in as price falls after more confirmation and price development
Trend Reader is looking nice too as its in the overbought zone signaling a bearish play to come with clear divergence
The blue EMA at around 150-Days also acts as good dynamic Support/Resistance to help confirm that flipside once price looks to break below with a rejected pullback.