Silver sellAfter the price breaks the uptrend line and moving averages and closes below the volume zone, we will enter a sell now.
Moving Averages
ADP Challenges ResistanceAutomatic Data Processing has moved sideways since the autumn, and now some traders may think it’s ready to move.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since early March. The payrolls-processing company closed above that falling trendline on Friday, which may suggest it’s breaking resistance.
Next, prices tested and held their rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA). They’ve also fought back above the 50-day SMA. Those signals may be consistent with long- and intermediate-term uptrends.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) just crossed above the 21-day EMA. MACD also turned positive. Those signals may be consistent with short-term bullishness.
Finally, ADP’s results and guidance beat estimates on April 30. The resulting bullish outside candle could also suggest buyers are taking charge.
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MACD: More Than Just a Crossover ToolHello, traders! 🔥
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is one of the most trusted tools in technical analysis — but often one of the most oversimplified. While many traders focus on signal line crossovers, the real power of MACD lies in its ability to visualize market momentum, subtle shifts in trend strength, and early signs of potential reversals.
Let’s unpack how MACD behaves using the weekly BTC/USDT chart ✍🏻.
🔧 Understanding the Mechanics
At its core, MACD is the difference between two exponential moving averages — typically the 12-period EMA and the 26-period EMA. The result is the MACD line (blue). The orange line represents a 9-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the MACD line, commonly referred to as the signal line. The histogram reflects the distance between them, helping to visualize when momentum is building or fading.
📊 MACD in Action — Weekly BTC Chart Breakdown
Looking at the BTC/USDT weekly chart, several notable MACD behaviors stand out:
1. The Bullish Acceleration in Early 2023
In early 2023, MACD crossed above the signal line, accompanied by a sharp rise in the histogram. This indicated strong positive momentum, as the price began recovering from the 2022 lows. The histogram’s expansion confirmed increasing divergence between the short- and long-term EMAs — a classic sign of trend acceleration.
2. Peak Momentum in Late 2023
Around late 2023, the MACD line peaked while the histogram also reached maximum height. This wasn’t just a confirmation of strength — it also hinted that momentum may have reached a climax. Despite price continuing to rise slightly, the MACD curve started to flatten — an early warning of potential exhaustion in trend strength.
3. Bearish Convergence into Q1 2025
In early 2025, the MACD line turned downward and eventually crossed below the signal line, while the histogram flipped to red. This reflected a cooldown in bullish momentum rather than an immediate reversal. What’s notable is how price didn’t collapse sharply, but moved into a pullback phase — illustrating how MACD can show momentum softening before price visibly reacts.
📌 What This Can Tells Us
The MACD indicator on this weekly BTC chart shows how momentum often shifts before the trend itself breaks. Each crossover, divergence, or histogram change is not a guarantee, but a cue to pay closer attention.
Key takeaways:
Strong Histogram Expansion = Confidence in the Current Move.
Peaks in MACD Without Price Making New Highs = Potential Divergence.
Shrinking Histogram + Converging Lines = Momentum Stalling.
🧠 Final Thought
MACD isn’t just about “buy when it crosses” or “sell on red bars.” It’s a narrative tool, showing how the story of the price develops beneath the surface. On higher timeframes, such as the weekly chart, it can potentially highlight macro momentum shifts long before they become apparent in price action alone.
Using Moving Averages Like a ChaseHow Institutions May Be Using Moving Averages to Align Technicals with Fundamentals
Are moving averages just for retail traders and chart watchers? Not if you're JPMorgan Chase.
While many associate moving averages (MAs) with simple trading strategies, institutional giants like JPMorgan Chase likely use them very differently. Instead of relying on MAs to chase trends, they may use them as confluence tools—where technical signals meet macroeconomic insight, risk models, and long-term strategy.
Here’s how JPMorgan might be using moving averages across their medium- to long-term investments—and what you can learn from it.
📊 1. Moving Averages as Investment Benchmarks
At the institutional level, MAs aren’t just "buy/sell" triggers. JPMorgan likely treats the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as dynamic references that help answer broader questions:
Is this trend aligned with the macro picture?
Is this a real shift, or just short-term volatility?
How do fund flows behave around these levels?
Rather than acting on the average itself, JPMorgan probably uses it to validate investment theses and smooth out the noise.
⚙️ 2. Confluence: Where Technicals and Fundamentals Align
In large portfolios, confluence is king. It’s not just about one indicator—but about multiple factors aligning to strengthen conviction.
MAs might be used alongside:
Macro trends (GDP growth, inflation, interest rates)
Sector momentum (e.g. financials vs. tech rotation)
Earnings growth and valuation models
Liquidity flows and volatility data
When a stock reclaims its 200-day MA and fundamentals improve, that’s a green light. When everything lines up, JPMorgan can move with more confidence.
📈 3. A Probabilistic (Not Predictive) Approach
Institutions don’t deal in absolutes—they deal in probabilities. JPMorgan’s quant teams likely test how often certain MA setups lead to favorable outcomes under different market regimes.
So instead of reacting to a crossover, they may ask:
"How often does this setup succeed, given current economic conditions?"
If the odds are strong, they’ll scale in. If not, they’ll wait or hedge. It’s a measured, data-driven approach to timing.
🛡️ 4. Risk Management and Strategic Timing
Moving averages are also incredibly useful for managing portfolio risk. They offer:
Clarity in volatile markets
Timing cues for rebalancing
Visual structure for entries/exits
MAs help JPMorgan place guardrails around long-term positions—keeping strategy in check while avoiding overreactions to noise.
🔍 Final Thought: JPMorgan Isn’t Chasing Trends—They’re Refining Them
The lesson for investors? Don’t treat moving averages as magic lines. Used well, they become tools of confirmation and control, not prediction.
For JPMorgan Chase, MAs are likely just one piece of a much larger puzzle—blending technicals with fundamentals, data science, and market context to execute with precision.
💡 Pro Tip: You can apply the same idea to your own strategy—use moving averages to validate your thesis, not to drive it. Confluence is the key.
Why I'm not holding Tesla Tesla was dropping! I got in at around 220. However, within three weeks, I sold for a small profit.
BUT, why did I sell? This is why I'm not holding NASDAQ:TSLA
It's time to buy!
From a technical and historical point of view, buying Tesla right now makes perfect sense. The stock has a history of making significant price gains, is currently oversold, and is testing key support areas, such as the monthly 50 SMA.
A trader or investor who is 100% technical-based, this stock looks like a dream.
However, all the hype hits the floor when the fundamentals are considered...
Meh...
✔ The company has been increasing sales and cash year-on-year until recently
✔ Tesla has plenty of cash and assets. A simple acid test ratio shows liabilities vs. assets around 1:2.
❌ The issue is profit. Both gross and net profit margins have been falling year-on-year. The net profit margin is down from 15% two years ago to 7% last year.
❌ Worse, the current forecasts predict decreased sales and other key financials.
Poor and worsening financials are a clear red flag when buying stocks. Stay away. No matter how appealing the price looks.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Tesla is doomed, and it may still yield returns. However, I would not be surprised if the stock consolidates or moves lower from here. For me, Tesla is not the significant buy it once was.
Bitcoin MAsAfter a good rally bitcoin had 2 weeks age, now still managing and staying above 20MA for weekly, which is really bullish to me
Aussie Perks Up As Asia NapsAUD/USD closed last week at the highest level of 2025 and has extended the move today, pushing above the key 200-day moving average. The rally coincides with further strength in the offshore-traded Chinese yuan, which also finished last week at 2025 highs against the U.S. dollar.
While the price action is undeniably bullish—mirrored by strengthening momentum indicators—light turnover due to holidays across much of Asia warrants caution. The European open may offer a clearer read on whether this break above the 200DMA will stick.
If there’s no immediate reversal during European trade, traders may consider establishing longs with a tight stop below the 200DMA, targeting resistance near .6550. Alternatively, a move back beneath the 200DMA—echoing Friday’s reversal—could open the door for shorts, with uptrend support around .6370 and the 50DMA below that as possible downside targets.
Good luck!
DS
GBP / USD Waiting for the breakout of the rising trend line and the close below the volume zone to enter the sell position.
TSLA Drill Team is Back
Against the background of everything that is happening, from a fundamental point of view, Tesla is facing significant headwinds as we approach its Q1 2025 earnings.
A 13% year-over-year decline in deliveries, ongoing margin pressures from price cuts, and negative consumer sentiment tied to Elon Musk’s political involvement are weighing on the company.
While the energy segment and potential updates on the affordable vehicle could provide some upside, the risk of a disappointing earnings report looms large, potentially exacerbating Tesla’s challenges in a competitive EV market.
Technically
We see that the price is consolidating near the lower boundary of the golden pocket on the FIBO channel on the 1-hour chart. For a few days now, the price has been holding just above the 240.00 support level, but the bearish trend remains dominant with 23 out of 26 technical indicators signaling bearish sentiment as of April 20, 2025.
Entry SHORT around 240$ targeting 220$
Post-earnings, we could see a breakdown below 220.00, targeting the next support at 216.00, from which the future prospects will depend.
Resistance levels: 270, 250, 240
Support levels: 220, 216, 210
The price is struggling to break above the resistance, consolidating over days. With earnings on Tuesday, there’s a high probability of a breakdown if the report misses expectations or lacks clear guidance on growth initiatives.
A break and consolidation below 230.00 could lead to a decline toward 220.00 or even 210.00 in the coming week.
However, if Tesla surprises positively—particularly with strong energy segment growth or clarity on the affordable vehicle—we might see a reversal. Still, the current setup suggests caution, and we’ll need to monitor the price reaction closely post-earnings.
Keep your long term vision NASDAQ:TSLA
ALPHA Structure Analysis - 50-day EMA breakoutYesterday, BINANCE:ALPHAUSDT cleanly broke and closed above the 50-day EMA, which it hadn't been able to reclaim since December 2024. It also retested the previous $0.042-$0.052 demand zone, which acted as resistance.
Check the weekly chart below for more context:
Key Levels
• $0.024-$0.034: Main demand zone, dating back to October 2020
• $0.042-$0.052: Previous demand zone and current resistance
• ~$0.070: Previous key S/R, currently reinforced by 1-year EMA, and potential resistance
• $0.115-$0.137: Main supply zone
Trigger
I am looking for a retest of the 50-day EMA (~0.035) as support for a long entry, with a clear invalidation below the recent $0.025 swing low, targeting the main supply zone with the other key levels outlined above as partial TP targets.
Berkshire Hathaway Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Berkshire Hathaway Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Anchored VWAP)) | Completed Survey
* Wave Feature & Ongoing Wave (3)) | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* (Uptrend Argument)) At 510.00 USD | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 512.00 USD
* Entry At 540.00 USD
* Take Profit At 585.00 USD
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Thales Group Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Thales Group Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* Start Of (Anchored VWAP)) At 55.00 EUR | Completed Survey
* VWAP Feature At 125.00 EUR On Long Bias Entry | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* (EMA Settings)) - Uptrend & Retest | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 228.00 EUR
* Entry At 253.00 EUR
* Take Profit At 290.00 EUR
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Iluka Resources Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Iluka Resources Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* Wave Feature - Wave (3)) Ongoing | Completed Survey
* ((No Trade)) & Invalid Structure | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* (Downtrend Argument)) | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 60.00 AUD
* Entry At 58.00 AUD
* Take Profit At 52.00 AUD
* (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Sell
Cooked I don't think it would actually go this low into the wedge but if it chatches the moving averages then rejects I would hold other wise just a retest of support im guessing since they came in under last three quarters it'll be more pain. Plus US lawmakers want it delisted for "national security". No beuno.
$100k Bitcoin IMMINENT? Price Ignites After Major Surge!The cryptocurrency market is once again crackling with energy, and at the heart of the storm stands Bitcoin (BTC). The world's largest and original cryptocurrency is staging a remarkable comeback, shattering recent resistance levels and reigniting fervent speculation about its potential to not only revisit but decisively conquer the psychologically potent $100,000 milestone. Following a period of consolidation and downward pressure, a powerful surge has propelled Bitcoin to its highest price point in over ten weeks, signaling a potential paradigm shift in market sentiment and trading behavior.
The Breakout: Shaking Off Recent Slumber
The recent price action has been decisive. Bitcoin climbed as much as 3.1% to achieve a weekly high of $97,483. This marks the most robust price level observed since February 21st, representing a significant break from the sideways and sometimes downward trajectory that characterized parts of the preceding weeks. The memory of Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 threshold on February 7th is still fresh, adding weight to the current push towards that level.
This upward momentum provides a stark contrast to the market conditions seen earlier. There is downward pressure attributed to geopolitical factors and economic policies, such as potential tariff implementations, which had previously triggered sell-offs impacting both traditional stock markets and the digital asset space. Furthermore, the market had to digest a significant correction following Bitcoin's earlier peak. While the specifics of past peaks can be debated based on different exchange data, the narrative of a significant pullback followed by the current strong recovery is clear. Bitcoin weathered a period where it seemed momentum might stall, but the bulls have evidently returned with renewed vigor.
Shifting Market Dynamics: From Macro-Driven to Momentum-Fueled
Perhaps one of the most crucial insights from the current rally is the apparent shift in what's driving price action. For much of the past year or two, Bitcoin's price movements often seemed heavily correlated with macroeconomic factors – inflation data releases, central bank interest rate decisions, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory pronouncements. While these factors undoubtedly still play a role, the current surge suggests a transition towards a market more heavily influenced by internal dynamics: spot market demand and trading momentum.
There are traders who are increasingly reacting to price action itself, buying into strength and potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle. The focus is less on predicting the next Federal Reserve move and more on the immediate supply and demand dynamics visible on exchanges.
Bitcoin isn't entirely decoupled from macro trends, but its internal market structure, particularly the influence of new financial instruments like ETFs and strong spot buying, is asserting greater influence on short-to-medium term price discovery.
The ETF Factor: Opening the Floodgates for Capital
The launch and subsequent success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have been a game-changer, and their impact is arguably a primary catalyst for the current bullishness. These regulated investment vehicles provide traditional investors and institutions with a familiar and accessible way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the underlying asset. The result has been a torrent of new capital flowing into the market.
There has been a staggering inflow of over $3.2 billion entering Bitcoin and Ethereum tracking ETFs in the preceding week alone. BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), a major player in the space, recorded nearly $1.5 billion in inflows during that period, marking its highest weekly intake for the year according to Bloomberg data.
These inflows are not just numbers on a spreadsheet; they translate directly into buying pressure in the spot market. ETF issuers must purchase actual Bitcoin to back the shares they issue to investors. This sustained, large-scale buying provides a powerful tailwind for the price, absorbing sell orders and driving the market upwards. The success of these ETFs also lends legitimacy to Bitcoin as an asset class, potentially encouraging further adoption and investment from previously hesitant institutional players. The "demand" aspect of the current rally is heavily underpinned by this ongoing ETF phenomenon.
Options Market Signals: Betting Big on $100,000
Further evidence of the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, particularly the $100,000 target, comes from the derivatives market, specifically options trading. Options contracts give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an asset at a specific price (strike price) before a certain expiration date.
According to data from Coinglass and the major crypto options exchange Deribit, demand for upside options has surged. Notably, call options with a $100,000 strike price exhibit the most significant open interest across various expiration dates. Open interest represents the total number of outstanding contracts that have not yet been settled. High open interest in $100k call options indicates that a large number of traders are positioning themselves to profit from Bitcoin reaching or exceeding this level. While options data reflects expectations rather than guarantees, such concentrated betting on a specific upside target underscores the powerful psychological pull of the $100k mark and the conviction held by a significant segment of the market.
Warming Up: Reading the Technical and On-Chain Pre-Rally Signals
Beyond the ETF flows and options market sentiment, analysts are pointing to various technical and on-chain indicators suggesting Bitcoin is indeed "warming up" for a potentially larger move, exhibiting signals seen before previous major breakouts. This aligns with the theme of "Bitcoin Flashing Pre-Rally Signals Seen Before Major 2024 Breakouts."
• Technical Analysis:
o Breaking Resistance: The surge above the 10-week high ($97,483) was a critical technical breakout, overcoming a level that had previously capped price advances. Holding above this level turns former resistance into potential support.
o Moving Averages: Traders watch moving averages closely. A "Golden Cross" (where a shorter-term moving average, like the 50-day, crosses above a longer-term one, like the 200-day) is often considered a strong long-term bullish signal. While specific configurations vary, bullish alignment of key moving averages often precedes sustained rallies.
o Momentum Indicators: Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can signal building momentum. An RSI breaking above key levels without yet reaching extremely overbought territory, or a bullish MACD crossover, can suggest further upside potential.
o Volume Confirmation: Crucially, significant price breakouts should ideally be accompanied by strong trading volume, indicating conviction behind the move. Analysts look for volume confirmation to validate the strength of the rally.
• On-Chain Analysis: On-chain data provides insights into the behavior of Bitcoin holders and network activity.
o Exchange Outflows: Sustained periods where more Bitcoin is withdrawn from exchanges than deposited often suggest investors are moving coins to private wallets for long-term holding ("HODLing"), reducing the immediately available supply for sale.
o Accumulation Trends: Metrics tracking the behavior of large holders ("whales") and long-term holders can reveal accumulation patterns. Increased buying from these cohorts is typically seen as bullish.
o Supply Dynamics: Indicators looking at the supply held by short-term versus long-term holders, or metrics like the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), can gauge whether significant profit-taking is occurring that could stall a rally. A low LTH-SOPR might suggest long-term holders are not yet selling aggressively.
o Funding Rates: In the perpetual futures market, positive funding rates generally indicate that traders holding long positions are paying those holding short positions, suggesting a bullish bias in the derivatives space.
When multiple technical and on-chain indicators align, as some analysts suggest is happening now, it builds a stronger case that the market is preparing for a significant move, lending credence to the "pre-rally signals" narrative.
Mapping the Path to $100k and Beyond: Three Potential Scenarios
While the current momentum is palpable, the path forward is never certain. Analysts are mapping various possibilities, acknowledging both the bullish potential and the inherent risks. Here are three broad scenarios that could unfold:
1. The Momentum Continuation Scenario: Fueled by continued strong ETF inflows, positive market sentiment amplified by the $100k narrative, and potentially favorable (or at least neutral) macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin continues its ascent relatively unimpeded. It decisively breaks the $100,000 barrier, potentially triggering a wave of Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) from retail investors and further institutional interest. In this scenario, the market quickly looks towards higher targets, exploring price discovery in uncharted territory above $100k (or above its previous ATH depending on the data source used). Key challenges would be maintaining buying pressure and overcoming psychological resistance levels beyond $100k.
2. The Consolidation and Recharge Scenario: Bitcoin's rally meets significant resistance near or just below the $100,000 level. Profit-taking increases, and early ETF buyers might look to secure gains. Instead of a sharp rejection, the price enters a period of consolidation – trading sideways within a defined range or experiencing a moderate pullback. This phase allows the market to digest recent gains, build a stronger base of support (potentially around the recent breakout level near GETTEX:97K or slightly lower), and allows moving averages to catch up. If support holds and buying demand re-emerges (perhaps triggered by fresh ETF inflows or positive news), this consolidation could form the launchpad for the next sustained leg up towards and beyond $100k. This scenario tests the resilience of the buyers.
3. The Macro Headwind or Correction Scenario: Despite the strong internal dynamics, external factors reassert control. An unexpected negative catalyst emerges – perhaps significantly worse-than-expected inflation data forcing a hawkish central bank response, a major geopolitical escalation, unforeseen regulatory action against crypto, or a sharp downturn in traditional markets triggering widespread risk-off sentiment. Alternatively, the rally could simply run out of steam, hitting a "sell wall" at $100k that overwhelms buying pressure, leading to a sharper correction back towards lower support levels ($90k, $85k, or even lower). This scenario underscores the ever-present volatility and risk in the crypto market, reminding investors that parabolic runs can face abrupt reversals.
The Crucial Question: Can BTC Buying Demand Meet the Challenge?
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin successfully retests and surpasses $100,000 hinges on the sustainability of the current buying demand. Several factors support continued demand:
• Ongoing ETF Flows: As long as institutions and retail investors continue allocating capital to spot Bitcoin ETFs, this provides a consistent source of buying pressure.
• Growing Adoption Narrative: Each price surge and new institutional product launch reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin's growing acceptance and potential role as a store of value or portfolio diversifier.
• Halving Effect (Long-Term): While the Bitcoin Halving (reduction in new supply issuance) is a past event, its long-term supply-constricting effects are believed by many to contribute to price appreciation over time.
• Potential Retail FOMO: A decisive break above $100k could capture mainstream media attention and trigger a wave of buying from retail investors fearing they might miss out on further gains.
However, potential headwinds exist:
• Profit-Taking: Investors who bought at lower levels, including early ETF participants, may look to lock in substantial profits as the price approaches major milestones.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: While ETFs marked progress, the broader regulatory landscape for crypto remains complex and subject to change globally.
• Macroeconomic Risks: Inflation, interest rates, and potential recessionary fears haven't disappeared and could resurface to dampen risk appetite.
• Market Saturation/Exhaustion: Rallies can lose momentum if buying power becomes exhausted without fresh catalysts.
The interplay between these forces will determine if the current buying wave has the strength and endurance to overcome sell pressure and propel Bitcoin into six-figure territory sustainably.
Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Bitcoin
Bitcoin stands at a fascinating and potentially pivotal juncture. The recent surge, breaking a 10-week high and pushing towards the $100,000 horizon, is fueled by a powerful combination of factors unlike those seen in previous cycles. The institutional validation and massive capital inflows brought by spot Bitcoin ETFs represent a fundamental shift, seemingly driving a transition towards momentum and spot-demand-based trading. Bullish signals from the options market and various technical/on-chain indicators add fuel to the fire, painting a picture of a market "warming up" for potentially significant further gains.
Yet, the path to $100,000 and beyond is fraught with challenges. Market history teaches that parabolic advances often face corrections, and the ever-present risks of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory developments cannot be ignored. The sustainability of the current buying frenzy, particularly the crucial ETF inflows, will be rigorously tested as Bitcoin confronts the immense psychological and technical resistance clustered around the six-figure mark.
Whether Bitcoin achieves a swift breakout, undergoes a period of consolidation, or faces a pullback remains to be seen. However, the current price action and underlying market dynamics have undeniably reignited excitement and placed the $100,000 target firmly back in the spotlight, marking a critical chapter in Bitcoin's ongoing evolution within the global financial ecosystem. Investors and observers alike will be watching intently to see if the current surge has the power to meet the demand challenge and etch a new all-time high into the history books.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is based on the analysis of the provided source material and general market knowledge. It does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nasdaq 100 - Bull trap print begins circa April 30thThe Nasdaq 100 index is seriously oversold as market participants are gripped by fear. Understandable… however, markets do not crash in fear. Instead the opposite happens, counterintuitive as that sounds.
The Index shall continue display volatility until sellers are exhausted, which is around April 30th when the bottom shall print. So yeah, this week is probably going to suck what life remains of your account. However selling now is not in your best interest, I would argue the opposite. Let me explain why.
On the above daily chart the Nasdaq 100 death cross approaches, forecast to print on April 30th (the dotted lines). The death cross (On the Nasdaq 100 only) is defined as the 65 day Simple Moving average (blue line) crossing down the 240-day SMA with price action under the 240-day SMA.
Now the date has been changing a lot with recent volatility, to counter that behaviour the forecast for the cross uses the "Box Jenkins" forecast method (Ww is a data scientist and engineer specialising in probability theory and stochastic processes, will be adding the tool to my collection of scripts shortly!). Read more about Box Jenkins method here:
www.investopedia.com
Now I’m not normally a fan of moving averages, but on "looking left"… you’ll find me on the front row seat. I tell you all that to tell you this, look left. Look left at past death crosses using this method:
17% rally from death cross on March 15th, 2022
22% rally from death cross on December 18th, 2018
17% rally from death cross on February 16th, 2016
You get the picture. This behaviour continues to repeat with the previous ten death crosses until the print on October 12th, 2000, where the bull trap was followed by a market crash of 80%.
In terms of probability there is a 90% chance the death cross shall result in a positive rally. However, it is my guess many readers will place more weight on the 10% chance of a crash. That’s emotion, not reason! In fact if you scan over many of the published ideas on tradingview you'll notice the bearish slant is strong.
Is this time is different?
=====================
There are no certainties, only probabilities. Price action could continue selling off following the cross to reach new lows. That said, this idea is to forecast a bull trap, not a continuation in the market uptrend. The probability favouring a rally is incredibly high. After that, not so good. Not good at all.
Price action forecast on rally
=======================
Approximately 19.2 to 19.5k
Conclusions
=====================
The market is oversold as emotions run high. History tells us It is unlikely the correction ramps up in momentum after the cross prints. However the cross can indicate the index may be about to enter a bear market should price action reject the 50-day SMA, which it is very likely. That’s for the next post!
Ww
W.W. Grainger Inc. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# W.W. Grainger Inc. Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* Wave Feature On Flat Structure | Completed Survey
* ((No Trade)) - Invalid Short Set Up | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* (EMA Settings)) Start At 942.00 USD | Subdivision 2
- Support & Resistance
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 107.00 USD
* Entry At 114.00 USD
* Take Profit At 126.00 USD
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Understanding Moving Averages In TradingToday, we dive into a comprehensive guide on Moving Averages (MAs) — one of the most fundamental yet powerful tools in technical analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding how MAs work can help you better interpret market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and smooth out price data for clearer decision-making.
In this article, we’ll break down the different types of moving averages, how they’re calculated, when to use them, and common strategies that incorporate them into successful trading plans.
1️⃣ 1. What are Moving Averages?
Moving averages (MAs) are statistical calculations used in technical analysis to smooth out price data and identify trends over a specific period. They help traders filter out short-term fluctuations and focus on the overall direction of an asset's price.
2️⃣ 2. Importance
Moving averages (MAs) play a crucial role in technical analysis by helping traders identify trends, reduce noise, and make informed trading decisions. Here’s why they are important:
Trend Identification: MAs help traders determine the overall direction of the market.
Dynamic Support & Resistance: Traders watch key MAs (e.g., 50-day and 200-day) to anticipate price reactions.
Trading Signals & Crossovers: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
Golden Cross (Bullish): When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-day), signaling a potential uptrend.
Death Cross (Bearish): When a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA, indicating a possible downtrend.
Momentum Confirmation: A steeply rising MA suggests strong bullish momentum, while a declining MA signals bearish strength.
3️⃣ 3. Moving Averages Types
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Calculates the simple average of past prices.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): Smooths trends while reducing lag effectively.
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): Averages data with less sensitivity to noise.
Triangular Moving Average (TMA): Applies a double smoothing to price data.
Adaptive Moving Average (AMA): Adapts dynamically to changing market trends.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA): Adjusts speed based on volatility and noise.
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA): Uses dual EMAs to reduce lag in trends.
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): Enhances trend detection with triple EMAs.
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA): Minimizes lag while improving price smoothness.
Variable Moving Average (VMA): Adjusts its value based on market conditions.
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Weights price data according to trading volume
Jurik Moving Average (JMA): A highly smooth and responsive MA that reduces lag and noise.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA): Adapts to market fractal geometry, adjusting speed based on volatility.
Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLAMA): A variation of EMA that eliminates lag by compensating for past price movements.
4️⃣ 4. Calculations
Moving averages are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping to smooth price data and highlight trends. However, not all moving averages are created equal—each type is calculated differently, affecting how it responds to market movement.
In this section, we’ll focus on the formulas behind a few of the most relevant and widely used types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Weighted Moving Average (WMA).
a. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
The Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average price of an asset over a specified period.
Lag: High (delayed response to price changes)
Best for: Identifying long-term trends and support/resistance
SMA = P1 + P2... + ... + Pn / n
Where:
P1 + P2... + ... + Pn: are the prices (usually closing prices) of the last n periods.
n: is the number of periods on average.
It gives an equal weight to all prices in the period.
ta.sma(close, length)
b. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA.
Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA
Best for: Short-term trading strategies
EMA = (Pt × α) + EMAy × (1 − α)
Where:
Pt: Current price (usually the closing price)
EMAy: Previous period’s EMA
α (alpha): Smoothing factor = 2 / (n + 1)
n: Number of periods in the EMA
It gives more weight to recent prices, reducing the lag compared to SMA.
ema = ta.ema(close, length)
c. Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA.
Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA
Best for: Short-term trading strategies
WMA = (P1 × w1 + P2 × w2 + ... + Pn × wn) / (w1 + w2 + ... + wn)
Where:
P1...Pn: Prices (usually closing) over the last n periods
w1...wn: Weights assigned to each period (most recent gets the highest weight)
n: Number of periods
It reacts faster than SMA but smoother than EMA due to its linear weighting.
wma = ta.wma(close, length)
While there are many variations of moving averages available, the formulas covered here—SMA, EMA, and WMA—represent the most essential and commonly applied in both trading platforms and manual analysis.
Understanding how these are calculated gives deeper insight into their strengths, limitations, and the types of signals they provide.
5️⃣ 5. Choosing the Right MA
Choosing the Right Moving Average for Your Trading Style
Choosing the right moving average (MA) depends on your trading style, time horizon, and goals. Different types of MAs have varying levels of sensitivity to price movements, so the choice should align with your trading strategy.
Here’s how you can choose the best moving average based on your trading approach:
Short-Term Traders (Day Traders, Scalpers)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA reacts faster to price changes, which is crucial for short-term traders who need to enter and exit positions quickly.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): While less sensitive than the EMA, shorter-term SMAs (like the 5 or 10-period) can still be useful for spotting very quick trend changes.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): Offers a good balance between smoothness and responsiveness, reducing lag while staying sensitive to price changes.
Medium-Term Traders (Swing Traders)
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs (like the 50-period or 100-period) are effective in identifying the general trend over a few days or weeks.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 20-period or 50-period EMA can work well for medium-term traders, providing a smoother trend signal while still responding to changes.
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): The SMMA gives a smoother trend and reduces the noise, which is ideal for swing traders who look for stable trends over a couple of weeks.
Long-Term Traders (Position Traders, Investors)
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs like the 100-period or 200-period SMA are perfect for long-term traders and investors. These averages provide a clear indication of the long-term trend and act as reliable support and resistance levels.
Triangular Moving Average (TMA): TMA smooths out price movements even more and is useful for capturing long-term trends. It's slower, but highly effective for those trading in longer time frames.
Trend-Following Traders
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): As trend-following traders rely on capturing long trends, EMAs with longer periods (50, 100, 200) are a solid choice, providing smoother signals with less noise.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): The HMA reduces lag, making it a great choice for trend-following traders who want to react quickly to changes while staying in the trend.
6️⃣ 6. How To Use Moving Averages
Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis due to their simplicity and effectiveness in identifying trends, smoothing price data, and signaling potential market reversals. They are used by traders to help spot entry and exit points, determine the direction of the market, and define dynamic support and resistance levels.
Here’s a deeper dive into how moving averages are used in trading:
Identifying Trends
Uptrend: When the price is consistently above the moving average, it indicates a bullish trend. The longer the period of the moving average, the smoother it becomes, showing the overall direction of the market.
Downtrend: Conversely, when the price is consistently below the moving average, it indicates a bearish trend.
Sideways/Consolidation Market: When the price hovers around the moving average without a clear direction, the market is often in a consolidation phase.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels: When the price is above a moving average and then pulls back to touch it, the moving average often acts as a support level. Traders anticipate the price to bounce off the moving average and resume its uptrend.
Resistance Levels: When the price is below a moving average and then rallies back to it, the moving average often acts as a resistance level. This resistance can lead to a reversal or consolidation as the price struggles to break above the MA.
7️⃣ 7. Golden Cross & Death Cross
One of the most well-known signals involving moving averages is the crossover of short-term and long-term moving averages. These crossovers are used to signal potential trend changes and provide traders with entry and exit signals.
Golden Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average.
Death Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average.
Golden Cross
This is considered a bullish signal, indicating that an uptrend may be starting or strengthening.
When it happens: A common example of a Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The short-term trend is gaining strength and could signal the beginning of a sustained uptrend.
Why it works: The Golden Cross indicates that recent prices are moving higher and that momentum is accelerating. It suggests that buying pressure is overpowering selling pressure.
Death Cross
This is considered a bearish signal, indicating that a downtrend may be imminent or already in place.
When it happens: A typical example of a Death Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that the short-term trend is weakening and a bearish shift may be in play.
Why it works: The Death Cross shows that short-term price movements are declining relative to longer-term trends, and it indicates increasing selling pressure.
8️⃣ 8. MA Strategies
Trend Following
The trend following strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on strong price movements in one direction.
Trend Identification: Moving averages are used to identify whether the market is trending up or down. The most common trend-following strategy is to buy when the price is above a key moving average and sell when it’s below.
Trend Confirmation: Once the trend is identified using MAs, traders can enter trades that align with the trend. The idea is to "ride the wave" of the trend as long as possible until there is evidence of a reversal or loss of momentum.
MA Crossover
Moving average crossovers are one of the most popular and widely used strategies in technical analysis. Crossovers occur when a short-term moving average crosses over a longer-term moving average, signaling potential trend changes.
Short-Term Crossovers: These are typically faster and more sensitive, which can help traders spot quicker market changes. Short-term crossovers tend to generate more signals, but they can also lead to more false signals in choppy or sideways markets. (9 EMA & 21 EMA Strategy)
Long-Term Crossovers: These are slower and less frequent but tend to produce more reliable trend signals. Long-term crossovers filter out market noise and provide a clearer view of the overall market direction. (The 50/200-Day Moving Average Strategy)
Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to return to their average over time.
How to Identify Overextended Prices
Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the price is significantly above or below a moving average, it may be overextended. In such cases, traders expect the price to revert to the moving average.
Using MAs as a Benchmark: Traders can use longer-term MAs, like the 50-day or 200-day moving averages, to identify overextended conditions. If the price moves significantly above or below the moving average, it is often seen as an opportunity for mean reversion trades.
Trading Moving Average Pullbacks
Pullbacks: A pullback is when the price moves against the prevailing trend, temporarily retracing toward the moving average before resuming its original trend.
Buying Pullbacks in Uptrends: In an uptrend, traders look to buy when the price pulls back to a moving average like the 50-day or 200-day MA, assuming the trend will continue.
Selling Pullbacks in Downtrends: In a downtrend, traders look for selling opportunities when the price temporarily rallies back to a moving average, anticipating a return to the downtrend.
9️⃣ 9. Key Takeaways
Moving Averages (MAs) smooth price data, helping identify trends, entry, and exit points.
Trend Following Strategies use MAs to align trades with the market’s direction (uptrend, downtrend).
Support & Resistance: MAs act as dynamic levels where prices may reverse or consolidate.
Crossovers:
- Golden Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bullish trend.
- Death Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bearish trend.
- Short-Term Crossovers (9/21 EMA) provide faster signals for active traders.
Mean Reversion Strategy: Prices often revert to their moving average after being overextended.
Pullback Trading: Enter trades when prices pull back to key MAs during trends.
Combining Indicators:
- RSI confirms MAs’ buy or sell signals.
- MACD crossover strengthens trend direction confirmation.
- Bollinger Bands help assess volatility, confirming price targets and trends.
Timeframe Selection: Short-term traders use quicker MAs (e.g., 9 EMA), while long-term traders prefer slower MAs (e.g., 200-day SMA).
Best MA Settings: For trend-following, use 50/200-day MAs; for short-term, use 9/21 EMAs.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
KASPA Structure Analysis – Downtrend BreakoutAfter retesting the $0.05 demand zone (previous resistance dating back to August 2023), BITGET:KASUSDT reclaimed the 50-day EMA (yellow) and tested the 200-day EMA (orange), before a brief pullback with the 50-day EMA acting as support.
Key Levels
• $0.050-$0.060: Main demand zone
• $0.083: Current support, reinforced by 50-day EMA
• $0.105: Current resistance, reinforced by 200-day EMA
• ~$0.120: HVN and potential resistance
• $0.155-$0.160: HVN, previous S/R and potential resistance
• $0.180-$0.200: Main supply zone
Here's a weekly chart with volume profiles for more context:
Considerations
• The breakout from the recent downtrend, and the break above the 50-day EMA followed by a retest as support, is a good sign for the bulls.
• If the 200-day EMA is successfully reclaimed, it could offer a good shot at retesting the main supply zone in the $0.180-$0.200 area.
• Conversely, a sustained break back below the 50-day EMA could lead to another test of the $0.050-$0.060 main demand zone.
Neutral outlook until a break above 200-day EMA or below 50-day EMA.
SPY at 3 important event! POC, 200 ema and 30 days reversalHi All SPY is at an interesting intersection:
1) a month from where it crashed and reversed entirely
2) At point of control (POC) from the top in Feb
3) at 200 ema
In Aug 22 SPY reversed from POC, at other times it found support or broke out with a gap
My opinion is, it will continue going up till 13th May (date when CPI is published). Nobody knows for sure how much tariff will impact CPI. It cannot as bad as we had during covid.
$BTC Huge Daily Close Above the .618 Fib !Very BIG Daily Close for ₿itcoin above the .618 Fib 🥵
CRYPTOCAP:BTC needs to close the next week in or above the green box demand area in order to keep the rally alive and flip resistance into support.
As I originally mentioned in my idea, PA either needs to correct accordingly or this is the long-awaited PARABOLA in the making.
I still stand with my original belief on how this will play out, and have numbered my ideas accordingly.
1. Correct to 200DMA
2. Correct to 50DMA
3. Inverse Head and Shoulders reversal pattern
4. PARABOLA 🚀
I hope it's time to MOON more than anyone!
but I still have a good chunk of cash on the sideline in case the market needs more time 🤓
XIT LongStarting to edge back into a few ETF's now the 1 hour MA's have flipped. Nothing fancy here, small position looking to ride the waves. Expecting resistance as we go. Will move SL in stages giving it time to rise.
