Bitcoin - Your blueprint to freedom and beyondBitcoin - Looking at the one-week timeframe this is what we are seeing at the moment. Back on June 17th when we hit the 200MA and unlike many years before, Bitcoin went well below the white line, nearly 4 weekly candles later we are still under and looking very weak. This weakness and the inability to cross above the white line greatly tips the odds in favor of going to 11K. This means the odds of going lower are much higher than the odds of moving up. Time does make a difference here, the more time we spend under the white line the more sellers are going to get nervous and trigger a selloff, not to mention that we are grossly under production cost which could generate another problem.
On the daily timeframe, we still have to take shots at the 50MA which is our second battle, our first and harder battle zone is the one I spoke about above. Also here in the 1D timeframe, we can see that this is BTC's 2nd major effort to start closing out of that new and tight range, even here there isn't enough energy to make a decisive move.
Heads up: This is a little insight. No matter if the price is too high or too low know that it always likes to be near the moving averages. Price does not like to stay away from them for too long.
Warning: consumer debt is at an astronomical level, what does that mean? It means that we have been putting vacations, car payments, clothing, food... on our credit cards. What does that mean? It means that credit card rates are now purposely very high and those loans have to be paid. If a "recession" hits many of you will default on car payments and loans... which will create a domino effect that will very negatively affect the world economy and the markets. Expect a drop if this slow-moving train wreck comes into effect.
Wisdom: Credit card companies with the blessing of your government are allowed to entice you to borrow, if you haven't borrowed enough they create more incentives, once you have borrowed too much they change the rates and lock you in debt for a few years. This benefits your government and the global banking system. How? The Banks steal your money and power (That you willingly gave up) on the other side of the coin? Corporations hire you for cheap or under their terms and the government gets tax revenue and high employment rates... After a while rates go down and the cycle starts again. Be smart and do not top off your credit cards, buy what you can afford, and save so you can invest. You are a hamster in a wheel if you allow yourself to be one.
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Movingaveragecrossover
Will HSI finish strong for Q2?2 weeks ago we discussed why the HSI:HSI rebound rally would be slowed by profit takers (). The choppiness in the index we saw for the past 2 weeks was also due to the discrepancy between the China and US equity market. While the SSE Composite SSE:000001 still held above 3300 level, the US equity indexes all broke through the 2022-May low due to the increasing worries of inflation and recession risk. Hong Kong as a market sitting in between the east and the west taking different messages from each side, fluctuation is inevitable in such a situation.
Strong rebound in the US equity market last Friday
In the recent Friday session (Jun-24), the US equity markets showed a strong rebound and paired back most of the losses from the past 2 weeks and stood above the May-2022 low again. That means the breakout to the downside we saw last week is likely to be a false breakout. While the main direction of the US equity market is still downward, it could take a break at this price level (to accumulate more energy before diving further). This break also means alignment between the US and China markets, which create the necessary condition for Hong Kong HSI to continue the rally to the upside.
Xi Jinping is joining the HKSAR 25th anniversary event
Next Friday, July-1 is the 25th Anniversary of the establishment of the HKSAR (also known as reunification with China). Last week Xi Jinping has confirmed that he will physically attend the anniversary event , which marks the first time for Xi to step out of mainland China since Covid outbreak in 2020. This gesture re-emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong to China.
Reopen to revive Hong Kong Economy
Back in early June the Liaison Office of Central People’s Government (LOCPG, Beijing’s main body overseeing Hong Kong) had hosted a meeting with foreign business chambers to collect “suggestion” and “advice” on how to revive the Hong Kong business environment. All chambers had expressed that the existing quarantine measure is the biggest roadblock for local business. With the new chief executive of Hong Kong, John Lee coming onboard next month, all eyes will be on him to iron out the reopening details of Hong Kong with mainland China and the rest of the world. Personally I am optimistic about the relaxation of quarantine measures as soon as the coming Q3. Reopening of Hong Kong is actually a one-stone-two-birds move for China. First, it can serve as a welcoming gift for John Lee from China, to help him rebuild trust between the government and the people in the city. Second, reviving Hong Kong economy, especially its financial market, is one of the crucial steps for China to save its downturning economy. I believe the announcement of the reopening would be one of the major events in Q3 that send the Hong Kong HSI Index to the upside.
Technical Discussion
HSI index retested the 20 days and 50 days moving average without going through, reconfirming the support at these levels. The strength also pulled the 20 days moving average above the 50 days creating a bullish technical signal. If we follow the upside rally narrative, below are the levels the index must break through to confirm the sustainability of the trend:
22142: 09-Jun, choppy zone peak
22523: 04-Apr, rebound peak from market plummet in Mar-2022
However, one needs to be extra cautious if the index drops below the low of the choppy zone at 20697 again , as this would mean the rally narrative discussed above is still premature. Long positions in the index as well as other Hong Kong listed stocks should be trimmed partially for risk management.
June Week 4: USOIL Medium-term trend!Hi friends, I hope y'all had an awesome weekend and ready to tackle this week strong ;)
Today, we looking at a possible bearish trend here on the daily. This trend signal is derived from the monthly where the price is in the bullish half a bats L2 formation that will bounce off or retest the 8 m.a before continuing the patterns trend to its 3rd level. So we are currently anticipating a counter-trend, and when its done we'll hop on the main trend. Let us see how the bulls and bears might behave in either triggering our trade signal or dis-confirming it.
Bulls: -The price will dis-confirm our trade by forming a bullish reversal pattern that will lead the price to bullish break and retest 2nd Monthly Key Lvl (stop loss area) together with 50 m.a (light blue) and bullish crossed short-term m.a's (dark blue and red). If the price does that it will trigger the weekly's double bottoms signal and I'll share it here.
Bears: -The price will bearish drop for the head and shoulders trend together for the 200 m.a (that's visible on the Mt4 chart in white color) and short-term m.a's trend - probably after it has bullish bounced off the Daily H&S Neckline 2, 50 m.a, and bearish crossed short-term m.a's with a bearish reversal candle pattern. That will trigger what I call an "H&S A-E.3 signal".
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this. If you have a different perspective on this instrument, feel free to share it in the comments section or direct message me, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Doji-2K1
Will 200 WMA hold Bitcoin ? I will be paying a very close attention to the 200WMA, as I Know in the past years it has acted as strong support. Imo I feel like on the smaller time frame we could go lower but on the weekly time close back above 200WMA. I still believe we won't see a bull market until next year.
BITCOIN , 1D, 15/5/2022Welcome too all of you guys..
Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
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overall,the price is moving down since 7 weeks and we can see bearish channal on 1d time frame clearly.
It may be possible now to see the price moving up in this coming days...and make some correction
so there is some important point lead us to open long poistion now
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my order:
=========
open position: 29.704
SL :25.792
TP1: 41.428
ORDER: 1
LEVERAGE : 1/100
=============================
good luck
EUR/USDThe EUR/USD has been in a controlled downward channel for the last 3 months. Showing strong respect for the 50-day moving average. price has rallied to the top of our trends resistance for the first time since April first, will this strength continue by the Euro? or will we see another rejection of the resistance level and continued respect towards the 50-day moving average? We wait to confirm the possible direction of market price to look for an entry.
Personal income, as well as personal spending figures, are due to be released for the U.S within the next 3 hours. Forecasts show a possible negative growth in spending, which can prove negative for the dollar and U.S GDP growth. This may add to the overall Bullish sentiment for the pair and see the market price rise. We await the release of these figures as well as the direction of a higher time frame close outside of our resistance channel and the possible challenge of the 1.0800 level
NIO Cars Have Four Wheels & A Double Bottom?NIO Cars Have Four Wheels & A Double Bottom?
I am confident that NIO vehicles have four wheels and a double bottom pattern on the daily chart.
Expected move-From the neckline to the peak of the pattern is approximately 10 bars or 10.99 ticks.
What confluences further influenced my position on NIO?
-9 MA approaching the 21 MA for a crossover
-Broke above the weekly timeframe resistance zone
-Bullish Harami pattern spotted on 4H chart.
*Special note- NIO gapped down January 24, 2022. The gap size is approximately 5.08% or 1.32.
The reasons aforementioned is the explanation for my bullish stance on NIO.
*This is not financial advice.
Peace & Prosperity,
MrALtrades00
USD/CADThe pair has recently crossed below both the 50 day & 7 day Simple moving average (SMA). this double cross-over may point to strong sell opportunities off of the failure to break back up above our diagonal support line, which had formed a strong support zone for the last month.
our 1st entry position can arise with failure to break back above our trend and instead provide signs of rejection for us to enter into a sell position.
the second entry position could arise once the market crosses below our 1.27800 level, closing below this level on a higher time frame chart can provide us with added confidence in the continuation of a market drop-off.
Fundamentally we have the national activity report from the FED as well as a FED Bostic speech later this evening. the latter FED speech possibly Bringing the most influence.
Weekly Chart Breaks 100 WMA One of the most important moving averages in crypto is the 100 WMA. Try it for yourself and see that it acts as a fantastic moving average for support and resistance, as well as buy and sell signals. Yesterday we broke this pivotal MA, and history shows that usually spells bad news. I’d stay on the sidelines for now until we can get a better picture of where local bottom is, until then, I remain bearish now - long term, crypto will change the landscape of the financial future. Cheers
Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA
KEY CHART ITEM LEGEND
* TEAL LINE (LIGHT BLUE) - 200D SMA
* AQUA LINE (DARK GREEN) - 600D SMA
* GREY LINE - 150W SMA
* NAVY (DARK BLUE) LINE - 200W SMA
* Navy Box - Re accumulation Zone Time Frames
Historically during BTC cycles as measured from Bitcoin halvings, investor sentiment reaches over sold levels which have attracted long-term accumulation by investors.
We have observed so far in each cycle once the cycle All Time High (ATH) has been set in for BTC, price has become range bound and squeezed between the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA (see post 'A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMA').
A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 200D (AQUA) & 600D (TEAL) SMA
Once BTC has broken the 600D SMA, price migrates to the 150W SMA and eventually the 200W SMA which price then becomes range bound. This area for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 have shown great accumulation opportunities for long term investment.
In each cycle to so far, the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA have done a good job at identifying this accumulation zone. These accumulation zone and the time in days we have spent in them for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 are shown below and identified via the Navy Blue box in respective posts.
CYCLE 1 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 291 Days
CYCLE 2 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 131 Days
RE ACCUMULATION ZONE TIME FRAMES ANALYSIS - CYCLE 3 DUBIOUS SPECULATION
Observable in each cycle, we are seeing the time spent in the accumulation zone is diminishing each cycle (Cycle 1 = ~291 Days & Cycle 2 = ~131 Days).
In our current Cycle (Cycle 3), we are currently very close to the 150W SMA (wicking into it by not closing a daily or weekly candle below it on some exchanges).
Dubiously Applying the same parentage decrease to Cycle 3, we can expect if and when we enter this zone between the 150W and 200W SMAs again we could stay in this zone for 72 days.
It is worth noting that we entered this twice zone in Cycle 2 (wicking down to the 300W SMA - not shown) due to the COVID dump, and that the above analysis considers only our time spent in these zones that have also coincided with our cycle bottoms.
The COVID dump entry into this zone corresponded to 42 days. Worth noting this is considerably less than the estimated time extrapolated above of the next entry of 72 days (hence dubious at best), but it could also be considered a false entry with this analysis due to the abnormal affect COVID had on market cycles ('Black Swan Event').
If we consider the second entry into this zone in Cycle 2 during the COVID dump as valid, then applying the same % difference method from these two occurrences we could expect our next entry in the current cycle (Cycle 3) to last ~28 days.
Considering the above dubious calculations, then we could estimate the next time we enter this accumulation zone we may spend between ~28 to ~131 days range bound before breaking out of the zone.
Please use the content of this post for educational purposes only and feel free to comment your thoughts on the above below (not financial advice).
So far Support holding well. At this green Gann again...So far support holding well.
At this green Gann again, which has been resistance in the past, could this be more back testing to then make it's way to 36,000 ?!
Maybe only go back to 100,fib, then back down.
Resistance can easily become support.
Now looks good for support, if the Gann can turn to support, i will go long.
So far Higher high and Higher low's. (4 Hour)
Stochastic is high but no roll on Stoch MA's.
The 21,55 MA's have crossed to the upside with good Volume on the 4 Hour Timeframe.
Now the wait...
(SPY) Bears, the market may move lower: careful of the look backAMEX:SPY
In this video I go over very general market conditions and express my bear case on the SPY using some simple indicators. This is not financial advise and was created for entertainment and educational purposes only. Do not use this video and its contents as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security, the opinions expressed are of my own and should be taken with a grain of salt. No one person is always right (or wrong)- please do your own TA and DD when making any financial decisions in the market. A stock guru I know once told me "price action is king" and I took it to heart. Ignore the noise, be simple, look at the chart and let it speak to you.
The video is really only supplemental information to pair with the post below (which is much more detailed):
The SPY is coming off a very strong bearish candle close at $412.
This marked a range from the previous 4 months with a top of range of $479.98 - closing the month of April's candle -14.33% or -$68.77.
This 4 month move countered 8 months worth of price discovery - or in other words, a 1 year reset button was just pushed. Rewind.
Monthly Time Frame:
Stochastic shows neutral, room for buyers and sellers
The 200 is trading below the 50, signaling a bull market - don't isolate this thought though
The monthly candle that just closed pushed well past the 12 EMA - which acted as support on the previous 3 months candles (as seen as a slice of the candle wicks/shadows)
Weekly Timeframe:
Stochastic shows oversold slightly. On this time frame the SO seems to be much more sensitive on the oversold side than the overbought. Bears should keep this in mind when considering short term reversals or lookbacks.
The weekly candle printed below the 50 SMA, 12/26 EMA, but above its 200 SMA. The 50 SMA (low) attempted support but ultimately failed.
The Daily print closing below closing levels of April 2020
There was also a 12/26 EMA cross under that developed in the last daily print - this could signal a stronger downside that is to come.
3 Day Time Frame:
Very similar to the weekly with one big difference lying in the 12/26 crossunder which happened Feb 10 and a look back rally that pushed through (but failed to maintain) in late March.
May Sept Dec 21' and Feb 22' all produced similar 3day prints that were follow by a bull rally - do be careful of these rally periods as the SPY continues its downward trend as they will come because the price never goes straight up or down.
The Stochastic is again showing signs of being very sensitive to oversold conditions. Oct 21', Jan Feb and March 22' all show a rally after touching the oversold mark.
1 Day Time Frame:
This is where the picture becomes a little more clear IMO.
The daily print is now below the 200 and 50 SMA set, and the 12/26 EMA still - both the 12 under the 26 and 50 under the 200 - technically a bear market (unlike the 1M, 1W, and 3D showing the 50 over 200)
The first overhead EMA is the 12 which could be looked to as resistance upon a lookback. The 50 SMA (low) should also be noted, as it seemed to have provided support April 12th - 18th. This support is now considered resistance.
Stochastic showing oversold, and again showing sensitivity to these conditions as compared to its counter
This is IMO the most important line of support/resistance you can find - not just for the SPY but for the entire market. The ULTIMATE crash will come with confirmation of the break below. Mark this line on your charts and consider it for the future. This is the bottom of 08' that created support, switched to resistance in 11' which confirmation of its strength in 18' and 20'. It was only during a recovery(?) that it was broken. Time will tell if resistance is now support - we do not know yet because it has not been tested. My gut says it will provide some, but very little resistance when the time comes.
This is what that line looks like relative to the daily for context - the current price is roughly $20 away of -5% from this line of "assumed" support. This is not a hard feat IMO for bears to look at as a price target in the short term.
This would be in the $390-400 range.
If you consider the 3 day chart in relation you will notice the 200 SMA set has a H-C-L of 387.26, 382.71, 376.92, respectively. This could be a lower PT that bears could be looking to.
Additional levels to consider to the downside would be a range of 405-411 in the near short term. Really, considering the gap found on April 1st to April 5th that range could be extended to 400 before support could start to be used. There is no real structure here though, the next structure is found in the lower 390s.
Lookbacks could happen at any time, but patterns lately show lots of doji and morning star reversals that tend to give us a heads up. Again, nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
Lookback levels I would consider would be on the Daily time frame at the 50 and 200 SMA sets
50 SMA: 437.19, 433.28, 428.68
200 SMA: 450.98, 448.15, 445.13
Also, I would consider the pivots at 437.20 and 461.55 as resistance in the case of a rally
Conclusion:
I expect continuation of bearish pressure with short lived look back rallies. The market overall IMO is not topped out just yet and we very well may see higher highs before lower lows in the short term. Even though I do think a crash is imminent, I do believe there is room for bulls to take short control. Mainly do to oversold conditions that show lots of sensitivity. That said, there is also no indication of a bottom just yet either. Almost all signs point down. Remember, and this is the last time, nothing goes up or down forever - expect turbulence. I think the SPY will go down to $400 to at least test, and perhaps even lower to the 370s before a bottom is found.
You all have a wonderful trading week and best of luck to all those in the market!
NVDA short should drop in price to 190-195NVDA SHORT 21/04/22 07:00 GMT
14 year old English trader trading on demo accounts currently gaining experience in the markets.
NASDAQ:NVDA should drop to around the 200-205 price mark because of many factors such as inflation, monetary policy tightening, and current market sentiment.
NVDA has been deeply affected by the current market sentiment dropping 19.65% in the last month. This large price drop was caused by many things such as inflation, inflation usually negativity impacts growth stocks and positively or neutrally impacts value stocks and as NVDA is a high growth stock it has some of the best growth aspects in its sector. So, inflation has caused a large downfall for NVDA and the way the fed is aggressively trying to combat inflation suggests there is a hard landing coming for the markets. Soring electricity prices has caused NVDA to have higher operating costs. One single semiconductor factor takes up 100 megawatts per hour and usually run between 10-12 hours in a day taking around 1,100 megawatts per day. Which means it could deeply affect their earnings this quarter causing their stock price to fall. NVDA will continue to drop because of these reasons and as the Ukraine war continues on NVDA earnings will continued to be affected. NVDA is a strong buy for longer term but during this bear market with potential of recession of 35% in the next to year (predicted by Goldman Sachs) and the aggressive fed combating inflation has never been done before without a full-blown recession which suggests a tough period for the market is coming as well as NVDA
Market wrap 9:00 GMT
NVDA is currently at 20.65 which I predicted earlier the chance that NVDA ends up in the positive quite high as it is classed as oversold by the RSI which could pick up a lot of potential buyers but I can see NVDA trading between 205-195 price region over the next few days. The main reason why NVDA’s stock dropped 6.05% today was because of the death cross which is when the 50-day moving average moves below the 200-day moving average which suggest this bear market is here to stay and NVDA’s stock will continue to drop. This suggest to us that this market is not going to be short term and as the us ten-year bond rose 2.93% today which will negatively impact stocks because they usually are inversely propionate. This is why I believe NVDA should drop even further to around the 190-195 price level which could be another opportunity for a buy position I believe over the next few days the stock could rally 3 or 4% which could be a good opportunity to short.
Semiconductors stocks such as AMD or intel. AMD has dropped by 22.05 % in the last month and suggests a strong sell signal as it hit below 90 per share today. Intel has dropped 2.03% in the last month but as it is a more mature company this is expected. This suggests to us that the semiconductor market is set to fall even further as the reason I mentioned early about high energy prices causing semiconductor companies to have a negative impact on their earnings. Causing people to take short positions in these companies. This also shows the impact of inflation on growth stocks as I talked about earlier
To conclude I do not believe that NVDA will have a complete trend reversal against the S&P in this current bear market and will continue to fall has an influx of negative news continues to be delivered on inflation and energy prices. As well as the increasing fear of a recession approaching.
Swing trade atleast 20% returnPlease refer chart for detailed explanation on technical analysis .
Falling wedge is one the most accurate pattern. One can use buy on dips strategy.
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Hopefully, this helps you out a little bit. Please make your own research before investing.
P.S: This is not an investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. This is my personal viewpoint so please Invest your capital at your own risk
ELLIOT WAVE | BIG INDUSTRIES BHDBIG industries Bhd
- Very hot stock past 2 weeks, waiting for another game play. Might be a profitable trade for swing trader
IDEA TRADING TEKNIKAL
1. Head and shoulder pattern spotted waiting for breakout confirmation with volume = sincere BO
2. Moving average tersusun cantik = strong uptrend
3. Entry level pada MA20 and MA50, TF daily
4. breakout downtrendline and able to succeed above + formation of HH and HL
IDEA TRADING FUNDAMENTAL
1. Quarter report 3 quarter constant making profit = something brewing
2. ROA, ROIC, ROE improve for 5 years
Ripple price predictionThe Ripple price has plummeted to the lowest level since February as the stocks and cryptocurrency market fell. XRP is trading at $0.7161, about 23% below the highest point this month. It remains about 47% below the highest point in 2021, bringing its total market cap to about $33 billion. Other coins like Ethereum, Bitcoin, Solana, and Cardano have plunged.
The XRP price has plunged because of the ongoing concerns about the bond market. The ongoing bond sell-off has pushed yield prices to the highest level in years. The yields of the 10-year and 30-year are approaching the 3% mark. At the same time, there are signs that the yield curve inversion will continue for a while.
This performance has helped drag most cryptocurrencies and stocks down. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has fallen by more than 8% from this month’s highest level. Likewise, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices have not done well as investors anticipate a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The bank has already hinted that it will deliver several interest rate hikes this year.
Another reason why the XRP price has dropped sharply is the ongoing SEC vs Ripple case. The case is still dragging in court, and analysts expect the verdict to happen in this year’s second quarter.
The daily chart shows that the Ripple price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. However, a closer look shows that this crash happened after the coin formed a rising wedge pattern ( A rising wedge is usually a bearish sign )
The coin has also moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The two have made a bearish crossover, signaling that the downward trend will continue. Therefore, the next key support level to watch will be at $0.62 ( the lowest level on February 24 this year ).
Here are all the reasons I still like Dogecoin!Traders,
Here are all the reasons I still like Doge here:
#1 RSI at 54 with lots of overhead room.
#2 After drawback, still above the 100 day
#3 Retracement was exactly 50% (just like BTC)
#4 Intersecting moving averages. 20 and 100 are intersecting right at support and just below the 50% fib retracement level, making this an extremely strong support level area.
My next target would be the 200 day overhead, a full 24%+ profit from current price.
Best to you all. LMK if you enter this trade here.
- Stewdam.us
Here are the coins that I've had to remove from "This Week's HotTraders,
I go through our list and remove 15 coins from the list, some of which have pumped and some which haven't. I'll give an explanation for the removal of each in the video. Six coins remain on the list. Link below.
⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️
(against house rules, see below)
Moving Average Cross Over StrategyWe start by creating a visual for when all moving averages are in order and across the 200 moving average . In this example, I have used a vertical line in the colour of our bias direction, Long(Green) , when this condition has been met. We now have an increased confidence by filtering out trade setups that do not meet our bias giving a higher probability and focus.
Levels of previous resistance give us a price that we can enter the market by turning into a new level of support . In this example I have highlighted this with a red arrow located on the left hand side.
Now we have a trading bias and a methodology to set price restrictions to enter the market, we can now trade only long positions and trade setups . In this example I have highlighted long opportunities that have been triggered with arrows in green located on the right hand side. Entry points can be executed on either the daily , 4hour or 1hour charts depending on risk and trading style preference. Please note - Lower time frames may generate more signals which presents more risk.