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Never catch a falling knife?Is the fall in Tesla's share price coming to an end? I recently published an idea predicting a fall in the share price to $215, which happened even faster than expected following the publication of more than disappointing results. But now what? Despite this bad news from a fundamental point of view, I remain in line with my initial analysis and believe that the correction is over. We're coming up against a multitude of supports, namely the top of the ichimoku cloud, the 200-day, 50-week and 200-week moving averages, as well as the burgundy-red support line on the chart. However, if we break this combination of supports, we'll probably go for the bottom of the ichimoku cloud, around $175. The death cross that has just appeared in the weekly also remains a danger. In conclusion, although I'm expecting the price to bounce back, I currently prefer to stick to the expression "never catch a falling knife" and wait to see how the price moves at the start of the week before making my decision.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Whytek
Significant Moving Averages positions in the S&P500 weekly chartThe 200-SMA of a weekly chart is probably the main indicator of a secular bull market. It's almost never breakdown, except if a crash happens, and then prices usually come back quickly to the uptrend. Or, the other situation, when an extended bear market begins, and in that case, prices will remain under this MA for a while and the battle around it lasts longer. A common pattern that happens in the first several months of a bear is that the prices meet the weekly 200-SMA, they then pullback to the 50-SMA and, after that, we finally have the breakdown of the 200-SMA. This can be noticed in some previous bears, like in 2001, 2008 and in the 1970s. If we take a careful look at the present S&P500 weekly chart, we will see that this pattern has being built in the last months. Prices did approach the 200-SMA, they then did a pullback to the 50-SMA, and now they're facing difficulty to resume the uptrend, the 4200 level is being almost a Great Wall, not to mention that the yield curve has been inverted for 10 months now (this usually predicts a recession within 6 to 18 months). I think that the bear move is the most probable outcome for the next months. So, for that, I consider that we're now at an excellent point to start trading a major bear move. It is important to try to catch the beginning of such a move so we can collect the greatest possible asymmetry. That’s why in the next few days/weeks I will be very attentive to bearish trading signals in the stocks, and, of course, I will post here any trades that I do. PS: An spoiler: I’m feeling the energy sector (XOM, CVX) has the potential to give us bears a lot of joy. But that is yet to be confirmed.
SP:SPXShort
by thessia_
📈 4 Ways To Use The Moving Average📍 What Is a Moving Average (MA)? In finance, a moving average (MA) is a stock indicator commonly used in technical analysis. The reason for calculating the moving average of a stock is to help smooth out the price data by creating a constantly updated average price. By calculating the moving average, the impacts of random, short-term fluctuations on the price of a stock over a specified time frame are mitigated. Simple moving averages (SMAs) use a simple arithmetic average of prices over some timespan, while exponential moving averages (EMAs) place greater weight on more recent prices than older ones over the time period. Common moving average lengths are 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200. These lengths can be applied to any chart time frame (one minute, daily, weekly, etc.), depending on the trader's time horizon. The time frame or length you choose for a moving average, also called the "look back period," can play a big role in how effective it is. An MA with a short time frame will react much quicker to price changes than an MA with a long look-back period. In the figure below, the 20-day moving average more closely tracks the actual price than the 100-day moving average does. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
6
Consider the Long-Term ChartI'm not going to call if the bottom is in or "not so fast" but just want to point out that we may only be halfway through a significant long-term downturn. It's concerning to me that RSI has broken significantly below 50 for the first time since the market recovered from the lows in early 2009. It's also concerning that price looks like it wants to retest the 50-mo. EMA after seemingly finding support a couple months ago. There's still considerable downside risk to the 200-mo. EMA where it has found long-term support in the past and it also happens to currently line up with a double bottom with the covid panic low from early 2020. Will it go down to the 200-mo EMA now? I'm not sure, I'm just saying that it could and you need to be prepared for that. I do know that if it continues to drop it would be a blood bath down at those levels and also a great long-term buying opportunity in my opinion (it could find support above, at or below the 200-mo EMA and an interesting level would be the top from the tech bubble around 2000 which lines up with a period of sideways consolidation from 2015-2016.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by PatientContrarian
EURAUD has a nice RtoR ratio!Okay! Daily MA 100 is broken! We are waiting for a reversal! MA200 of 4h is broken and price reversed and responded to it perfectly. Trend is strongly bullish, 1st TP was previously strong support level.. Main TP is volume profile of strong reversing level in HTF. After all, we know that there might not be any reversal! I'll enter 0.25 of my risk (0.5% of account) now! it's RtoR is around 1.63 which is just normal. But there is a chance of great RotR around 1.475 and I wait for that
Long
by AliSignals
Worst is over - BTC 2022 - BULLISHAs a result of the current market instability, some investors are panic selling, while others are clinging on in the hopes of a recovery. In just three months, the value of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 60%... On the weekly TF, we've reached the 200 SMMA trendline. Since 2015, we've been relying on this support trendline... Is this time any different? Well soon we'll find out. Looking at the monthly TF we also are testing the 50 SMMA trendline. It is only if we lose this key level that we can consider a new idea: The shark harmonic pattern, which has a target of approximately $12,000 for the next long opportunity. Right now, though, we've reached a bottom and this represents one of the best buying opportunities. Altcoins retraced more than 90% and showing great chart setups. Does it mean we won't see any further decline? No doubt we can, however if we look at the overall picture, we can argue that purchasing cryptocurrency at a discount is a good deal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SiDec
9
EURJPY LONG and here's whyI am seeing a lot of traders thinking possible double top, i originally thought this too until i back tested some more and went through a couple of failed trades with the same Moving average formation thinking "possible double top" and that wasnt the case. following through with a buy trade considering 20, 50, 200 ma still spread out. Just my analysis and experience with trading against my moving averages. trade safely and if you go for sells, keep your SL tight.
Long
by Sevsky0
1
AUDUSD(Short)CONFIRMATIONS 1. Checking on up coming news it seems like there's going to be heavy movement on AUDUSD so I decided to take a look at the charts. On Monday 6/20 RBA Gove Lowe Speaks & Monetary Policy Meeting. Also on Friday 6/24 RBA Gov Lowe Speaks. 2. My 50 MA is now above price which is a possible sign of a downtrend. 3. Waiting for price to hit my fib retracement, to look for a possible sell entry. 4. Set my take profit to -27 extension. 5. Set my stop loss a little bit past where price was before it dropped.
Short
by KairosTrades
4 Reasons why the BTC Bottom could be CloseINDEX:BTCUSD In today's video I look at 4 reasons why I think we are close to the bottom: 1. 200 week MA - historically the 200 week MA has indicated the bottom 2. Fibonacci golden pocket retracement - a fib pulled from the very start of bitcoin in July 2010 to the all time high, show a zone for the possible low 3. Weekly RSI - historically we have never gone below a certain level and we are nearing that level 4. CME Gaps waiting to be filled - there is a gap that is about to be filled These four factors are aligning very well with weekly and daily support levels that BTC is nearing. Could this be the bottom or close to it? Have a look at the video and let me know in the comments what you think. Not financial advice. DYOR. Papertrade before using real money. If you liked this idea, please give a thumbs up and follow. Safe trading. Shawn
INDEX:BTCUSD
by zartraderguy
FX - CAD/CHF - GANN FANs Chart !! LONGHello trader, Nice Week and profitable deals 💲 CAD/CHF 8H Chart 🗝 In this chart we can see 2 gann fans and 1Cloud ☁ Fibretracement 🌊 and MA 200 that gives the bull power, MA50 and 🔑AVWAP Momentum what the direction shows us up 📈👀 and rsi, with divergences up 💹 Brief explanation of the Gann fann 👀 The lines act as support and resistance, everything under the red area is considered bears‼ SL, TP is visible in the chart 🗝🗓 I would like to mention that all i post are just options and my own opinion! Always Trade With Sl, And Not Risk More than 1% of your portfolio (max 3%) by trade. If you have any questions, let me know ➡️If you like my posts smash the Like Fur, Comment or Follow me.⬅️ Thanks for reading my ideas, Trade save !!
Long
by TR7z
Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA KEY CHART ITEM LEGEND * TEAL LINE (LIGHT BLUE) - 200D SMA * AQUA LINE (DARK GREEN) - 600D SMA * GREY LINE - 150W SMA * NAVY (DARK BLUE) LINE - 200W SMA * Navy Box - Re accumulation Zone Time Frames Historically during BTC cycles as measured from Bitcoin halvings, investor sentiment reaches over sold levels which have attracted long-term accumulation by investors. We have observed so far in each cycle once the cycle All Time High (ATH) has been set in for BTC, price has become range bound and squeezed between the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA (see post 'A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMA'). A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 200D (AQUA) & 600D (TEAL) SMA Once BTC has broken the 600D SMA, price migrates to the 150W SMA and eventually the 200W SMA which price then becomes range bound. This area for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 have shown great accumulation opportunities for long term investment. In each cycle to so far, the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA have done a good job at identifying this accumulation zone. These accumulation zone and the time in days we have spent in them for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 are shown below and identified via the Navy Blue box in respective posts. CYCLE 1 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 291 Days CYCLE 2 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 131 Days RE ACCUMULATION ZONE TIME FRAMES ANALYSIS - CYCLE 3 DUBIOUS SPECULATION Observable in each cycle, we are seeing the time spent in the accumulation zone is diminishing each cycle (Cycle 1 = ~291 Days & Cycle 2 = ~131 Days). In our current Cycle (Cycle 3), we are currently very close to the 150W SMA (wicking into it by not closing a daily or weekly candle below it on some exchanges). Dubiously Applying the same parentage decrease to Cycle 3, we can expect if and when we enter this zone between the 150W and 200W SMAs again we could stay in this zone for 72 days. It is worth noting that we entered this twice zone in Cycle 2 (wicking down to the 300W SMA - not shown) due to the COVID dump, and that the above analysis considers only our time spent in these zones that have also coincided with our cycle bottoms. The COVID dump entry into this zone corresponded to 42 days. Worth noting this is considerably less than the estimated time extrapolated above of the next entry of 72 days (hence dubious at best), but it could also be considered a false entry with this analysis due to the abnormal affect COVID had on market cycles ('Black Swan Event'). If we consider the second entry into this zone in Cycle 2 during the COVID dump as valid, then applying the same % difference method from these two occurrences we could expect our next entry in the current cycle (Cycle 3) to last ~28 days. Considering the above dubious calculations, then we could estimate the next time we enter this accumulation zone we may spend between ~28 to ~131 days range bound before breaking out of the zone. Please use the content of this post for educational purposes only and feel free to comment your thoughts on the above below (not financial advice).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Brodie