Mpattern
AUDNZD going for M- or H&S?!Hi all,
For more stuff find me on telegram: t.me/FXT_TL.
Sharing my thoughts on the AUDNZD pair for the upcoming week(s), no entry yet.
What oppurtunity do we have on this pair? well let me tell you:
We have created a M-pattern wich is giving us information that we might want to go down.
Also we might see the H&S pattern being created like shown, wich in the end also tells us we want to go down.
So, keep monitoring price action, looking for shorts, but not quite yet.
Do you find my information valueble than please start to follow me or join the telegram group:
t.me/FXT_TL.
BTCUSD ANALYSIS - CURRENTLY SHORTTECHNICALS:
Currently, BTC has completed a Peak Formation High (PFH) with an M pattern and has progressed down to confirm a Level 1 position.
There is a high probability for a good SHORT down towards the MAYO (200 EMA) as well as most likely PIN the BLUEBERRY (800 EMA) before forming a Peak Formation Low (PFL) with a W pattern.
Once it forms the W pattern, we can then LONG it upwards to the next major PFH which would be at around the $11,673 USD Zone.
TDI Indicator also gives me confirmation of these moves, as currently, RSI is outside the LOWER TDI Band at approx 52.65 RSI (At time of writing). It initially looked as if it would form a Shark Fin outside the water, but now there is a very high probability that it will continue downwards to make another cycle on the TDI, possibly to the 40 RSI range or thereabouts, before making another Bullish move upwards to the next peak.
FUNDAMENTALS:
BTC is seeing continued growth and adoption as well as many mining rigs have now been turned on again after the market price rose above the $6,000+ mark. Adoption of bitcoin continues, not only in the crypto marketplace but also in other sectors including commerce. There is no doubt that we are out of the crypto winter (bearish trend), and we are now at the initial stages of a bullish trend.
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DISCLAIMER:
These are my analysis, my opinion, I give no guarantees and I'm not responsible for any losses that you may occur if you trade this, whether you buy crypto or trade it in the CFD market. If you want to trade this chart, do your own analysis and make sure you have a good money management plan in place. If you want to learn more about trading, here is a good place to start: babypips dot com
I generally post my own analysis in BTMM format, although I am proficient in Crypto Patterns, Gartleys, Butterflies, Pattern Trading, Elliott Wave Trading, Pitchfork, Trendline, VSA and Price Action trading, for which I may from time to time post additional analysis including some of these other methods.
I don't answer to bullies, trolls or charlatans. If you want to genuinely debate me, post a proper analysis, but don't post a blank chart with words or claim you are a 'WE' and have some magical algorithm or secret, I will not waste my valuable time to answer you. I'm posting this chart here for my own personal record and to share with those that may appreciate it, with the hope that it can help someone better their life.
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AUDNZD short!! - EQUIY.Dear traders,
So as you can see we expect AUDNZD to go short. We think it will go short because the markt is now in a strong weekly sell order zone. If you zoom in on the daily chart you can see we are now also in a strong sell order zone that’s been filled right now.
It will be much clear on the 4h chart, you can see the 4h trendline is been broken en created a nicely “M formation”.
For take profit levels and stoplos check our telegram group: t.me
NOTE; if you follow our telegram group you will be always up to date about the last market trades and conditions. This is not everything, there is a lot more in the telegram group:
What can you expect from us in the telegram group?
-A watchlist video. This will be uploaded every Monday in the morning.
-Trade setups. We only share high probability trade setups.
-At the end of the week we will upload a market recap video. This means that we will look back at the trade setups we have discussed in the trading group.
- Mini lessons about our strategy and mindset
Furthermore, we have created this Equiy trading community group, because we want to create a community in which you can ask us questions, but also other people in the trading group. In that way we can grow as a community. We will share the link to this group in this message: t.me
So, we hope you will enjoy this whole idea and that we will grow together!
Team Equiy.
USDJPY SHORT - EQUIY.Dear traders,
So as you can see we expect USDJPY to go short. We think it will go short because the markt is now in a strong weekly sell order zone. If you zoom in on the daily chart you can see we are now also in a strong sell order zone that’s been filled right now.
It will be much clear on the 4h chart, you can see the 4h trendline is been broken en created a nicely “M formation”.
For take profit levels and stoplos check our telegram group: t.me
NOTE; if you follow our telegram group you will be always up to date about the last market trades and conditions. This is not everything, there is a lot more in the telegram group:
What can you expect from us in the telegram group?
-A watchlist video. This will be uploaded every Monday in the morning.
-Trade setups. We only share high probability trade setups.
-At the end of the week we will upload a market recap video. This means that we will look back at the trade setups we have discussed in the trading group.
- Mini lessons about our strategy and mindset
Furthermore, we have created this Equiy trading community group, because we want to create a community in which you can ask us questions, but also other people in the trading group. In that way we can grow as a community. We will share the link to this group in this message: t.me
So, we hope you will enjoy this whole idea and that we will grow together!
Team Equiy.
US 30 Down Trending: Double Cascade Correction ImminentBusy chart. US 30 is trending down since 26 Feb 19, and 22 March Price Shock was pivotal IMO:
Note the long TL at bottom reaching back to 1996. Scroll R/L to see the extension. IMO this line will define the bottom for the 2020 bear market.
Note the two-year 'Trump' TL which has enjoyed a parabolic run-up since election and corporate tax cuts. This curve is unsustainable and will drop back to the long TL, sooner than later IMO.
NB: The 2018 Zig-Zag Correction and subsequent Bear Market Rally have produced a Head & Shoulders pattern on grand scale going back to Jan 2018 (triple tops charted under umbrellas).
In shorter perspective, US 30 is in a down trend since 25 Feb, when it made a lower high around 26240. It's trading well below that now, after rejection from the TL formed by highs of 03 October, 25 Feb (X-X TL). Small arrow over 19-26 March period shows stair-step of lower highs. Bearish engulfing candle on 22 Feb was extremely ominous; a clear sell signal, provoked by rate inversion, a highly reliable indicator of recession. According to WSJ on 3/24/19, the yield curve has inverted before each of the past seven recessions.
Nice article on what it means exactly and why it happens; essentially; bond investors' demand for long-term notes has driven their yields lower, as confidence in short-term paper falls, given an expectation that future paper will pay less: www.thebalance.com
"Price shock" on Friday 22 March occurred on/about Spring Equinox, a period often marked by trend changes. This arrived after a three-week rally following a brief decline from the 25 Feb high, a date 61 days from the 26 Dec trend change; significantly:
In "45 Years on Wall St" W.D. Gann noted;
"Rule 4: Buy and sell on 3 Weeks' reaction or decline... in a Bear Market sell on a rally of three weeks after you know the trend is down... After a market rallies or declines more than 45 to 49 days, the next time period is around 60 to 65 days, which is about the greatest average time the a Bear Market Rallies, or a Bull Market Declines."
"Rule 8. Time Periods; Dates for Changes in Trends: ...March 20 to 27th. Sometimes major tops or bottoms occur around these dates."
General observation: following a Price Shock, the market may Rally for 3-5 days before the Down Trend resumes in earnest. When these Rallies are rejected from a TL, the resulting reaction can provoke Panic Selling and Capitulation. Look back at Jan 29 Jan to Feb 1 and 3-10 October periods, where brief consolidation occurred just before Waterfall Selloffs, following the initial Price Shock.
Of the past 11 corrections of 10+%, 9 have produced double bottoms. Of the past 13 Bear Markets, only 7 have correctly indicated the arrival of a recession. The market is a lousy forecaster! But, this means that 46% of Bear Markets occur without a recessionary environment...!
See: www.cnbc.com
WXYXZ patterns depicted only suggest a possible path, this is of course completely unknowable, as predictions are always hard to make, especially when it's about the future!
If you scroll back to Feb-June 2018 there are two 'M' patterns with the WXYXZ path. Although the markets could simply roll over and throw down to a double bottom, IMO a complex pattern is more likely, given the titanic struggle with Bulls & Bears ongoing.
I do not pretend to predict the course of US 30. However, it is apparent we are in a Down Trend; the index has rejected from the X-X TL and is rotating lower as it gets Mark-Down. The possibility of a severe Secondary Correction with Capitulation Panic within three months is quite real.
Note that the X-X TL intersects the 1996 Long TL at price 17,734... this nearly coincides with support back to 2015 around 18,023. Expect eventual bottom formation around Dow 18K.
Risk in US Equities is very high now. Prices are within 85% of ATH (All major indexes reached and turned back from Fibonacci 8:55 ratio = 0.85455). It would be prudent to exit long positions and preserve capital. Speculate on price mark-downs at your own risk!
That being said, I've taken Bearish Positions in: SDOW; SPXS; TECS; SPY 282 May Put; QQQ May 180 Put. Growl!
NB: This is not investment advice; just my own speculative idea; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
US 30: Valentine's Day Massacre?All the good news is out. Prices pierced and fell back to TL. Price at 0.62 Fibo now. Sand P also at Fibo just a hair above 2700. Bear flag flying at tip of pennant.
Can it get higher? Of course! 'Pumptards' are capable of infinitely irrational behavior. But will it? That is the question, to be or not to be more! IMO not to be more.
Just an idea; the .62 Fibo retrace on this flag is down at 23K for Dow, that's 2K under current price. Would be a pretty penny if it sells to Fibo. Lotta folks calling for a 'crash' but I reckon an 'M' correction is more likely, the 'C' leg on that would be pretty steep, down at 1.62 Fibo brings 30 under 20K. Notice the expanding 'megaphone' corrective structure- ominous, wide open to lower prices. Expect a double bottom with a steeper drop on the secondary correction after the 'Christmas Crash.'
Has been trending up for 40 days, as of Groundhog day on Feb 02 (Candlemas!). Timeframe for next leg on correction, based on comps from 1987, 2001 selloffs, is about 80 days from bottom-to-bottom: which puts the next low in late March/early April. Then expect super bully in late April into May before a June swoon. Just guessing.
As always, this isn't even remotely anything like advice, just a crackpot harebrained idea. Trade at your own risk and consult a certified investment advisor please!