Moderna | MRNA | Short, Falling WedgeModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is in a falling wedge with no signs of escaping (yet). While it may have a small pop if there is good company news, the COVID-19 buying spree may be truly over. The COVID-19 pandemic will soon be an endemic and the market may shift fully away from "COVID-19 tickers". Insiders continue to dump shares. Since the start of 2022, insiders have sold $57 million worth of shares. $10 million of this total in the past 13 days (source: OpenInsider).
I anticipate Moderna to be below $100 in the coming months if it doesn't break the falling wedge's resistance.
MRNA
PFE Pfizer shortPfizer will re-enter the channel below current support. Looking for a re-test and breakdown of $45 before mid March. Fraud, vaccine ineffectiveness, and blatant disregard for human health are just a few of the concerns here. For those less inclined to believe in science, COVID is over and these vaccine companies cannot rely on any future income comparable to this pandemic.
Moderna: Sell the Break Setup Moderna - Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 137.05 (stop at 147.24)
A move through bespoke support at 140.00 and we look for extended losses. Closed below the 20-day EMA. The primary trend remains bearish. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. We look to set shorts in the early trade.
Our profit targets will be 108.99 and 103.50
Resistance: 150.00 / 170.00 / 200.00
Support: 140.00 / 120.00 / 100.00
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PFE still lower to go. Pfizer looks to test $50, and possibly the gap around 46~ if things get really ugly. Omicron is looking really promising as granting significant immunity after infection, which should reduce demand for further vaccinations. These vaccines companies have YEARS of covid priced into their stocks... Short side is getting a bit long in the tooth for new entries, however I am still holding 2/3rds of my puts across the board for these plays.
We posted our short thesis in another thread www.tradingview.com
Potential Double Bottom On Moderna (NASDAQ: $MRNA) 🧬Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases. As of March 9, 2021, the company had 13 programs in clinical trials and a total of 24 development programs in six modalities comprising prophylactic vaccines, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The company has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC, Merck & Co., Inc., Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institutes of Health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Metagenomi, Inc., and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Moderna, Inc. also has collaborations with Lonza Ltd.; Catalent Inc., Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi, S.A., Recipharm, and Lonza Group; Aldevron, LLC; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and AbCellera Biologics Inc. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Moderna long-term short optionModerna is getting hot with Omicron Covid variant.
It almost has no investment attractiveness from current levels, but it has potential for making some sort of reverse pattern (so we will probably see some upward movement in short-term)
You can open potential long-term short positions from fibo levels (red lines)
Dump it!
Covid could be endemic within weeks with Omicron. MRNA? PFE?While we need another week~ to confirm, many leading scientists are pointing to death rates anywhere from 30% to 90% lower with Omicron. Yes, it's still problematic but there's hope for the first time in a long time. What happens is Omicron becomes the dominant variant and the majority of people have minimal symptoms?
We could see a DRASTIC repricing in some of the vaccine stocks, particularily MRNA. Fair value on MRNA is likely <$100. If we can't reclaim $315, I think we will see $180 and possible $150 within weeks.
I bought some OTM puts for a lotto play :p.
NEXCF: Downtrend breakout Initial PT $8NEXCF has just broken its long downtrend line which is usually due to some fundamental change in the company and trajectory of cash flow. The company has rebranded more into an AR 3D marketing company. They still have their digital edtech app and online conferencing but the reposition was a wise one considering the pandemic is coming to an end and many employees will be returning to work. If you noticed this past week the largest losers in the Nasdaq were pandemic plays such as Zoom (ZM) and Moderna (MRNA).
The business pivot will play a crucial role into the burgeoning AR space which is becoming a greater theme in 2022.
Fib extension target in the $12 range but no promises we get there - first target will be $8.
MRNA Support Bounce Weekly Option PlayDescription
Today saw MRNA performing a high-volume bounce from the 224 support line which initiated the start of what appears to be a rough Descending Triangle.
I am bearish on MRNA for the longer term, but expect this upward move to continue throughout the week, along with the rest of the indexes that have seen a strong bounce today.
At the least, I am expecting a move up to touch the converging 50/200D EMA lines, and looking for a max expected move in the time frame of one week up to the higher strike @ 257.5 to take profits.
If the move is strong enough, we will let the position trade late into Friday to allow the spread to widen out to max profit potential, but I am willing to close the position early.
Using a call credit spread to reduce the price and due to expectations of an IV decrease throughout the week.
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL: 224
PT : 257.5
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
1/14 235C
SELL
1/14 257.5C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
If you can afford it, and have the conviction in the direction of MRNA, I would opt for a Call in conjunction with a Put Credit Spread. This will allow you realize profits much sooner in the case of a meteoric rise such as the one that occurred from 18 - 26 November.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
INVERSE $MRNA breaking out!Massively bearish setup on MRNA. Whether we get one more deadcat, I do not know, but this thing is going to 170/180 area and could be as soon as next week. $125 is my final target. The amount of downside risk in MRNA is absolutely staggering. This is basically a $50-70 stock without the covid premium.
Covid strike back AGAINThe new covid strain "Omicorn" is spreading quickly all over the world.
The obvious play for covid is investing in vaccines.
PFE all time high is $61, currently its at $58.
Where MRNA all time high is $500, currently its $248. Thats 50% discount from ATH.
Technical:
There is a clear strong support trend line that we're bouncing off.
BlueWave is setting up to give a green dot buy signal (bottom wave green dot is the strongest of signals on bigger time frames)
INVERSE MRNA... Ridiculously bullish.MRNA targeting $125 and it could happen FAST. Massive insider selling the past month and evidence is building that Omicron will leave the infected with a robust immunity. The case for vaccines is eroding by the day and hard to argue that the current orders for MRNA are not priced in. Very dangerous to be long PFE and MRNA right now
$MRNA LONG TRADE IDEAOmnicron is on the rise and the travel season is going to further increase the number of cases in US. More and more people are running for booster shots as well. The stock was hammered last week and is close to oversold on longer timeframes. Thursday saw a nice reversal from 238 for a potential double bottom on 30 mins.
TRADE IDEA:
260C 12/31 on break of $253
TP: 258,270,280
SL: 245
Moderna breaks out from the downward price channel
Share prices are now out of the bearish channel and have breached a major resistance line at 2784.84 and the 200 MA line in M30. Share prices are now out at open waters and could navigate its way back up if it holds above 278.84. We have resistance around 298 and 310
$ARCT is a BUY nowArcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. $ARCT is set to be EBITDA positive in 2022 with a massive change in its revenue from 24.05M in 2021 to 326.44M in 2022. This is 12.57x increase in revenue. These numbers are estimates, but even with a large error margin we should see a drastic change in the price. Moreover, the decline from ATH was 80% and the price has been in a sideways movement after it bottomed. With today's strong breakout of the descending channel, I am expecting the price to start its rise up to the upper band of the range-bound around $63. The long-term targets should be a lot higher.
The breakout setup entry provides us with an awesome +3 Reward/Risk. A tighter stop loss order can even make it a lot better. A late entry at current prices provides 1.8-2.0 which is still a good ratio.
BioTech stocks are risky and volatile. This is not financial advice. DYODD
Moderna Analysis 11.12.2021Hello Traders,
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