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Microsoft (MSFT)

NQ Weekly Lower High?If you remember from back in October 22' - The economic news media was on full panic mode. If you only listened to them, you would have been closing positions and preparing for more downside. Smart money did the opposite at that time. 1-5 Elliot Wave is something I had posted during the Oct 22' lows, expecting large demand at those levels. Now we are almost a year into the future, and about 40% higher from the lows created last year. The economic news media is calling for ATH's, soft landings and it seems hard to believe. Another interest rate hike is right around the corner on Wednesday with 98% certainty, along with mega cap tech stocks earnings. Do we form a lower high? Not sure, but it would really start to look good for people selling options moving into the bloody months of Sept and August. A move lower from these levels is starting to get more and more probable, and at some point, every bear is right. I am not a perma bear, I just believe that some mega cap stocks (NVDA) are completely disconnected from reality and a correction to some big names could leak into other tech stocks. Be prepared, and good luck. Thanks,
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by vincefromaspects
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 24, 2023Key News: UK - S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI USA - S&P Global US Services PMI (Jul) The Dow Jones Industrial Average celebrated a remarkable milestone on Friday, securing its 10th consecutive weekly gain and extending its longest winning streak since 2017. However, the market's positive performance was tempered by cautiousness among traders ahead of the upcoming quarterly results from major tech companies. The Dow managed a marginal increase of 0.01%, equivalent to a mere 3 points, which might seem modest, but it's significant given the index's prolonged daily winning streak, last witnessed on August 7, 2017. The primary force behind the Dow's recent success lies in the gains made by defensive sectors, particularly utilities, which have helped bolster overall market sentiment. In contrast, the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, while the broader S&P 500 index edged up by 0.1%, showcasing a mixed performance across the board. Traders remained watchful and exercised caution as they eagerly await the upcoming quarterly reports from major tech companies. These reports could have a considerable impact on market dynamics, influencing the direction of future trades and investor sentiment. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart As the new week kicked off, gold prices experienced a slight dip as investors exercised caution ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, copper prices faced significant losses, primarily driven by concerns surrounding weakening demand in China. The metal market witnessed additional pressures with the dollar staging a recovery. The greenback strengthened, moving away from the 15-month lows it had reached earlier in July. These developments have created a sense of uncertainty and wariness among investors, who are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for any signals that could impact the precious metals and copper markets. The performance of the dollar is also being closely scrutinized, as its strength or weakness can have substantial implications for metal prices and global trade dynamics. In light of the prevailing economic uncertainties, market participants are treading carefully and making informed decisions as they navigate through this crucial week, where the outcomes of central bank policies and macroeconomic indicators are expected to shape market trends in the near term. XAU/USD daily chart The spotlight in recent market activity has been firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve's forthcoming decision on interest rates, set to be revealed at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The prevailing consensus among investors is that the central bank will opt to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Nevertheless, there exists a strong belief among market participants that the Federal Reserve might also indicate a pause in future rate hikes. With the central bank nearing the conclusion of its nearly 16-month-long rate hike cycle, such a stance could signal a potential break from the previous trend of steady increases in interest rates. This prospect of an extended pause in rate hikes has caught the attention of investors, particularly in relation to the impact on the precious metal market, notably gold. Historically, rising interest rates tend to elevate the opportunity cost of investing in gold, as higher rates make alternative assets more appealing for yield-seeking investors. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve hints at a pause or slower pace of future rate increases, it could potentially be favorable for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal compared to other interest-bearing assets. As the markets eagerly await the Fed's decision and the accompanying guidance, the implications for gold and other asset classes remain uncertain. The outcome of the meeting and the central bank's tone in their statements will undoubtedly have significant repercussions on investment strategies and market sentiment in the days to come. EUR/USD daily chart The dynamics in the EUR forward curve are undergoing a shift due to two essential factors. Firstly, foreign exchange traders are adjusting their pricing of lower US real rates in the long-term forwards after the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This indicates a realization that they may have been overly aggressive in their initial assessments. Secondly, the impact of ECB commentary on the Eurozone's economic data and inflation is likely to moderate, given the weaker economic indicators in the region. The Bank of Japan's decision on maintaining its current interest rates is also a significant point of interest. With rates at 0% or in negative territory for an extended period, it is somewhat expected that they will continue with this stance. China's 0% Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate is another crucial observation, as its potential spread could impact Japan first and have broader implications for global markets, particularly for stock markets and the future trajectory of the dollar. The actions and statements of these central banks will be closely watched by investors, as they could set the tone for market movements in the days to come. On a different note, the US earnings season is entering a crucial phase this week, with major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet preparing to release their reports. These earnings announcements are likely to have a significant impact on stock markets and investor sentiment. As the week unfolds, investors will be navigating through these key developments in global monetary policies, inflation trends, and corporate earnings, which will undoubtedly shape market dynamics and future trading strategies. MSFT stock daily chart META stock daily chart GOOG stock daily chart Absolutely, the upcoming earnings results of major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet are crucial in meeting market expectations and justifying the current valuation of the S&P 500. The current earnings multiple of 20 times and the substantial year-to-date gains of 19% in the index indicate high market optimism. Investors will be closely scrutinizing these earnings reports to assess the health and potential direction of the market. Meeting or exceeding market expectations in these reports will likely be seen as a positive sign, reinforcing confidence in the ongoing market rally. On the other hand, any disappointments or weaker-than-expected results could raise concerns and potentially lead to market corrections. Given the prevailing market conditions and the momentum in the S&P 500, investors are eager to ascertain the sustainability of the rally and whether the current valuations are justified by the underlying company fundamentals. As the earnings season unfolds, the market sentiment will be heavily influenced by the performance of these major companies, as well as the guidance provided by their management teams.
by FOREXN1
13
Microsoft Long Alltime High hit Earnings New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year. I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case). Bullish: higher highs higher lows poc uprising volume increasing capital flow rising In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend. I will only take profit 10% of the microsoft portfolio and let the profit run. Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal The mid and long term horizon is bullish. If any Profit taking level reaches, and trend continuation is signalizing that the uptrend will be continued, I will increase agressively my positions and take only 10% profits of each position.I will let the prfoits run. This trade setup is only for trend followers and on daily TF.
CAPITALCOM:MSFTLong
by DaveBrascoFX
MSFT Microsoft Options Ahead of Earnings ! Growth Thesis !If you haven`t bought MSFT when they Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT: Or sold on their warning to investors: Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 345usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $28.95. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. The investment by Microsoft in OpenAI signifies a significant boost to their artificial intelligence capabilities. OpenAI's advanced technologies and expertise in AI research and development could potentially enhance the capabilities of Microsoft's Bing search engine. With access to powerful AI algorithms and resources, Bing may be able to offer more personalized and accurate search results, thereby attracting users who seek a more refined search experience. Microsoft has been making strategic moves to expand its presence in various sectors, including cloud computing and enterprise services. By integrating Bing into its ecosystem of products and services, Microsoft can leverage its existing user base and partnerships to promote Bing as a viable alternative to Google. In recent years, Google has faced scrutiny over data privacy concerns and antitrust issues, which could create an opportunity for Bing to gain traction among users seeking more privacy-focused alternatives. Additionally, Microsoft has been actively investing in marketing and advertising efforts to raise awareness about Bing and improve its market positioning. While Google currently holds a dominant position in the search engine market, the landscape is dynamic and subject to change. If Microsoft successfully leverages its partnership with OpenAI to enhance Bing's capabilities, coupled with strategic marketing initiatives, it could potentially chip away at Google's market share over time. The implementation, by Microsoft, of a chatbot like ChatGPT, powered by OpenAI's advanced natural language processing capabilities, could indeed provide an opportunity for consumers to find the cheapest price online for the same product. In an era where price comparison and cost-saving measures are highly valued by customers, this feature could be a valuable asset for Bing. Amazon's reputation for having expensive and overvalued prices has been a topic of discussion among consumers. While Amazon provides a wide range of products and convenient shopping experiences, some users have expressed concerns about the pricing competitiveness on the platform. This presents an opening for Bing to attract cost-conscious consumers who are actively seeking better deals. The concern over the origin of products, particularly those manufactured in China, has gained attention in recent years. Some consumers prefer to avoid purchasing Chinese-made products due to quality, safety, or political reasons. If Bing can provide a search experience that allows users to filter or identify the origin of products more effectively, it could cater to a segment of consumers who prioritize alternative sourcing. I think MSFT will be one of the winners of the AI race. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TopgOptions
2
MSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden sectionMSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Microsoft stock in the past two years. The graph overlays the low point at the end of October 2022 against the golden section. As shown in the figure, Microsoft's stock has reached another new high this week, breaking through the highest point at the end of 2021! But the weekly pattern of Microsoft stock this week is a long shadow line, with the highest point precisely suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section in the figure! Based on last week's weekly pattern, Microsoft's stock market is likely to enter a contraction triangle consolidation state in the future!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Think_More
QQQ: Looking Out for a 20-40% Pull BackThe NASDAQ100 is currently sitting at the 0.886 and 1.618 PCZs of big Bearish Shark and Bearish Butterfly patterns as the indicators hover around the overbought zones; we don't exactly have much confirmation yet that these PCZs will hold, but it seems like it wouldn't be a bad idea to position against the QQQ early on via some SQQQ monthly calls and perhaps getting Bearish on some of the top stocks within the index such as NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT. Being conservative, I will only be looking for it to come back to the common Fibonacci Retracement zones below, but it's also possible that this ends up being a macro top; for the time being, that doesn't really matter because as of right now, it looks quite Bearish. On a side note, the VIX also looks like it's been preparing to spike up for a few months now and the targets for such a spike are pretty massive, as seen here:
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RizeSenpai
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 13, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (MoM) (May) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (Jun) Despite relinquishing some of its gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded Wednesday's trading session on a higher note. This positive finish was primarily attributed to a decline in Treasury yields and a surge in the tech sector, fueled by data indicating the slowest inflation increase in more than two years. The market sentiment has been uplifted by optimism that the forthcoming rate hike, scheduled for later this month, could potentially mark the conclusion of the tightening cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.25% climb, translating to a gain of 86 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq witnessed a robust increase of 1.2%, and the S&P 500 displayed a notable rise of 0.74%. DJI indices daily chart Nasdaq indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart In June, the consumer price index (CPI) registered a modest uptick, rising by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in May. Additionally, the annual inflation rate eased from 4% to 3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. These figures suggest a reduced level of price pressures in the economy. While there remains an expectation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month, the outlook for additional rate increases beyond July becomes less certain. The uncertainty stems from the possibility of upcoming economic data revealing a continued deceleration in inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jefferies, in a recent note, highlighted the importance of upcoming economic indicators in determining the trajectory of rate hikes. If indicators such as the Employment Cost Index on July 28, along with employment and inflation data released in August, continue to exhibit a slowdown similar to the recent Consumer Price Index data, it suggests that the rate hike scheduled for July could potentially mark the conclusion of the current cycle. In line with this sentiment, major technology companies, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), experienced a rebound following a recent downturn. This recovery was fueled by a significant decline in Treasury yields, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing their conclusion. GOOGL stocks daily chart MSFT stocks daily chart META stocks daily chart Microsoft's shares surged by over 1% as the tech behemoth made significant strides in the completion of its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI), the renowned game developer responsible for the popular Call of Duty franchise. The acquisition received a boost as a Federal judge dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's request to delay the deal, citing insufficient evidence to support claims of potential competition harm. This favorable development played a crucial role in driving Microsoft's strong performance in the market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The sell-off of the US dollar gained momentum after the release of the CPI data, leading to a rapid approach towards the 100 level on the dollar index. This consistent and significant movement has positive implications for global inflation dynamics. A weaker US dollar tends to drive down energy and raw material prices, which are often denominated in US dollars. Consequently, lower prices for these commodities can help alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale. In contrast, a strengthening US dollar contributes to inflationary pressures worldwide. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar can provide relief in the face of such pressures. EUR/USD daily chart In the currency markets, notable movements were observed. The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge, reaching the 1.1150 level, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the significant 1.30 level, signaling a rise in the British pound against the US dollar. Conversely, the USD/JPY pair extended its decline, falling below the psychological level of 140, implying a weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the currency markets and the interplay between different currency pairs. USD/JPY daily chart The anticipated release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for June today is expected to provide further insight into the global economy's disinflationary trend. Forecasts suggest a significant deceleration in the headline PPI, dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.4% in June. The core PPI is also projected to experience a more modest slowdown, declining from 2.8% to 2.6%. The weakening figures from the PPI may have implications for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating a continued disinflationary environment. This reinforces the notion that the forthcoming rate hike in the United States will likely be the final one in the current cycle. In summary, the June PPI numbers are expected to confirm the prevailing disinflationary trend in the global economy. The projected slowdown in PPI figures suggests potential effects on future CPI data and supports the belief that the upcoming rate hike will be the last one.
by FOREXN1
11
FTC Appeals to Block Microsoft Activision MergerI am providing a crucial update regarding the recent news of the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) decision to appeal against the proposed merger between Microsoft and Activision. This development has significant implications for the tech industry, particularly for those who have invested or are considering investing in Microsoft stock. The FTC's decision to appeal the merger indicates that regulatory authorities are scrutinizing the potential consequences of this consolidation. While mergers and acquisitions can often lead to positive outcomes, such as improved products and services, it is essential to approach this situation cautiously, considering the potential risks and uncertainties ahead. As tech traders, it is crucial to carefully evaluate the potential impact of this appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the appeal, coupled with potential delays or even the possibility of the merger being blocked, could significantly influence the company's stock value in the short to medium term. Therefore, I strongly advise you to exercise prudence and consider holding off on buying Microsoft stock until further clarity emerges regarding the outcome of the FTC's appeal. By doing so, you can better protect your investment and mitigate potential risks associated with this merger. It is important to understand this is not financial advice but rather an alert to the potential implications of the FTC's appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. As always, I encourage you to consult your financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. In conclusion, the FTC's decision to appeal the Microsoft-Activision merger has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market. By adopting a cautious approach and refraining from immediate stock purchases, you can better position yourself to make informed investment choices once more clarity on the situation emerges.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by bryandowningqln