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Microsoft (MSFT)

MICROSOFT Preparing for the next rally to $260.00Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the November 22 2021 All Time High (ATH). Last time we made an analysis on it (July 15), we called for a $285 target which got hit on the previous bullish leg: On today's analysis, we will do no different but to project the next high based on the previous two bounces at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down. As you see, after another 1W RSI bullish divergence (is on Higher Lows) against the price action (Lower Lows) we can estimate that Microsoft is pricing its last pull-back (if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks) before the final rally that can price the new Lower High either on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib priced the March 29 Lower High, while the 1D MA200 priced the August 15 High, which was just above the 0.618 Fib again. Based on that we can expect the next rally to hit at least $260. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
Elliott Wave View: MSFT Should Drop After A Flat Is CompletedShort term Elliott Wave View in Microsoft (MSFT) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside. Short term, rally from 10.13.2022 low is unfolding as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.13.2022 low, wave (A) ended at 252.62 and pullback in wave (B) ended at 212.24. Wave (C) higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure before the stock turns lower again. Up from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 231.60 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 223.90. MSFT then rallies again in wave 3 towards 247.97. Internal subdivision of wave 3, it has a shallow wave ((i)) ended at 225.86 and retracement in wave ((ii)) ended at 224.73. From here, rally was strong to 245.59 to complete wave ((iii)). Then a zigzag wave ((iv)) took place ended at 241.20 and last push in wave ((v)) of 3 finished at 247.97. Wave 4 has taken the form of an expanded flat. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 239.13 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 249.83. Expect wave ((c)) to end soon which also completes wave 4. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 223.90 low stays intact, expect Microsoft to extend higher 1 more leg to complete wave 5 of (C) and the whole flat correction as wave ((B)) before turning lower again.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Weekend Update: SPX Futures AnalysisENDING DIAGONAL BLACK EWT COUNT My primary analysis is the SPX Futures have been mired in an overlapping decline that will conclude on an Ending Diagonal provided we head to new lows soon without breaching the 3928 level first. I will admit my primary analysis has come perilously close to invalidation (as is the nature of Diagonals). Additionally, my black ED path could have academic similarities with an overall ABC to conclude what I'm classifying as a cycle wave IV in a SC wave III. Allow me to make the case for my primary analysis first, then I'll discuss the alternatives. The area where we get a major clue in the ES is a breach of 3590 which is displayed by the thick black line in the above chart. However, as you can see from the below Nasdaq Futures chart, that area has already been breached. The retracement has breached the .786% Fibonacci support area and looks poised to make a new low. I do not analyze the NQ chart but in as much as the index looks similar to the ES structurally, it appears to be further along towards bottoming. The obvious question “Is NQ leading the ES...or vice versa”? Nonetheless, it is a clue we should take note of. Also, the heavily weighted stock of Microsoft at 5% of the SP500 index has already breached its low and is almost complete from a pattern standpoint. This is the same structure I am looking for in the SPX/ES to turn from bearish to bullish. The chart of Apple has yet to strike that new low and is the largest component of the index. SO this bolsters my primary analytical point of view that regardless of what happens in near term, the SPX/ES is not complete in making its bottom despite what the financial news media may or may not report. The below chart is the difference between the life of the Black count and Purple becoming my primary...and it boils down to a breach of 3928. Above 3928 and the ending diagonal count will be taken off the chart. As of today, the SPX/ES has the opportunity to bottom quickly without interjecting more uncertainty. Whether it will do so or not remain to be seen. Nonetheless, it is my primary thesis that the index will head to new local lows and bottom this month. CORRECTIVE RETRACEMENT PURPLE EWT COUNT Below is the purple pathway and my secondary analysis of the path the ES Futures will take. If a breach of the 3928 level is to happen, this is the path price should take . I prefer a quick bottom as outlined in the black count but the purple count manages to do something I am in favor of when discussing stock market bottoms. It features a capitulation ending, only after getting its participants thoroughly confused. This is a slightly lower probability to the black count in my mind, but in truth statistically equal. RED COUNT IMPULSIVE MOVE HIGHER, BULLS RUN WILD TO 5200-5500 The red count is my second alternative and structurally is valid but contains too many unknowns and therefore at this juncture maintains a shaky analytical foundation. First, it features a leading diagonal to start off the next bull run. Diagonals are declines or advances in which the trader sentiment is so UNDECIDED it makes for a choppy pattern that just frustrates participants. Diagonals are not reliable trading patterns and therefore it's hard for me to get behind this next bull run based on such feeble sentiment. Nonetheless, the red count is a 100% viable option within the rules of Elliott Wave and therefore I am including it. The main difference between the red and purple count is where as the purple count concludes in the area of 1.0% to 1.236% Extension area, the red count surpasses that area in just the iii of 3-wave. The red count is an impulsive 5 wave structure that would complete as high as 4500-4600. As an analyst all I can do is wait for the individual components of my analysis to eliminate themselves to finally arrive at a tradeable thesis. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE NO REASON TO ABANDON THE BLACK ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN FOR FINAL COMPLETION. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
Microsoft - Slammed after the earnings report Prior to the beginning of the current earnings season, we warned investors that this would be a volatile period preceding the ECB and FED meetings, characterized by companies narrowly beating market expectations or failing to fulfill them. We also stated that this would enforce our thesis about the second stage of the bear market and progression deeper into the recession. It did not take long before earning season arrived, and companies started to prove our predictions true (Adidas, Alphabet, Mattel, etc.). Unfortunately, we expect this trend to continue in the next earning season; indeed, we believe it will be far worse than the current one. Yesterday, Microsoft announced its earnings for the third quarter of 2022, in which it reported an 11% increase in revenue and a 6% increase in operating income. Additionally, the company reported a 14% decrease in net income and a 13% decrease in diluted earnings per share. That subsequently led to a drop in the price of MSFT stock by more than 6.5% after hours. In our opinion, this merely highlights what we have been reiterating for a while. The market is in recession, and the recent bounce off the 2022 lows represents merely another bear market rally predestined to fall later. With that being said, we expect economic conditions to worsen next week with another FED rate hike. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of Microsoft stock. It can be seen closing at 250.66 USD yesterday; however, after the close and earnings report, it plunged more than 6.5% to 234 USD. This dramatic price action occurred despite Microsoft announcing an increase in revenue and operating expenses compared to the same period a year ago. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are also bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, the data does not reflect the drop after earnings. Therefore, we expect the daily time frame to turn bearish today. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of MSFT stock and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are flattening, trying to reverse. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Tradersweekly
8
MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation | 14th October 2022On H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 234.35, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 212.54, where the 100% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 250.25, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by FXCM
MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation | 14th October 2022On H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 234.35, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 212.54, where the 100% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 250.25, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
2