Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft Analysis 01.12.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
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AAPLs always fall from the treeDo any apples ever stay on the tree?
Alot if mass holding this bitten apple up. It’s only a matter of time before it falls from the tree.
Lots of imbalance below and smart money concepts on the weekly/monthly looking tasty for leap puts. Not investment advice but I am loading…
Musk vs Apple, CCP, 30% tax. All signs the Apple is connected by its last fiber. The slightest mention of US regulation against Apple sue to its monopoly will send the Apple tumbling towards equilibrium or discount zone.
Trade safe and have fun!
IBM - Harmonics (theory)The first thing to look for when identifying the Bat pattern is the impulsive leg or the XA leg. We’re looking for a strong move up or down depending if we either have a bullish or a bearish Bat structure.
The next thing that needs to be satisfied for a valid Bat pattern structure is a minimum 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg and it can go as deep as 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg, but it can’t break below the 0.618. This will create the B leg of our Bat pattern.
How to trade the bat pattern
The next thing we’re going to look for is a retracement of the AB leg up to at least 0.382 Fibonacci ratios, but it can’t go above 0.886, and this will create our third point C of the harmonic Bat pattern strategy.
The last thing we want to establish is the D point and in order to get to the D point, all we do is to find the 0.886 Fibonacci ratios of the impulsive XA leg, which will result in a deep CD leg and finally it will complete the whole Bat pattern structure.
In the current scenario, I presented also a surprising correlation between the time cycles, where the X and A leg time frame could indicate potential CD range. As described above - if this scenario turns true and price action will indeed form a bullish harmonic bat here, the initial retracement could potentially reach levels of the previous low of this cycle (X).
This is just a tutorial and an idea for a potential Long, at the bottom of the formation and end of the current time cycle - nevertheless, I mark this idea as Neutral and place IBM in my 'watched' list.
Microsoft Analysis 23.11.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
MICROSOFT Preparing for the next rally to $260.00Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the November 22 2021 All Time High (ATH). Last time we made an analysis on it (July 15), we called for a $285 target which got hit on the previous bullish leg:
On today's analysis, we will do no different but to project the next high based on the previous two bounces at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down. As you see, after another 1W RSI bullish divergence (is on Higher Lows) against the price action (Lower Lows) we can estimate that Microsoft is pricing its last pull-back (if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks) before the final rally that can price the new Lower High either on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib priced the March 29 Lower High, while the 1D MA200 priced the August 15 High, which was just above the 0.618 Fib again.
Based on that we can expect the next rally to hit at least $260.
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Elliott Wave View: MSFT Should Drop After A Flat Is CompletedShort term Elliott Wave View in Microsoft (MSFT) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside. Short term, rally from 10.13.2022 low is unfolding as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.13.2022 low, wave (A) ended at 252.62 and pullback in wave (B) ended at 212.24. Wave (C) higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure before the stock turns lower again.
Up from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 231.60 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 223.90. MSFT then rallies again in wave 3 towards 247.97. Internal subdivision of wave 3, it has a shallow wave ((i)) ended at 225.86 and retracement in wave ((ii)) ended at 224.73. From here, rally was strong to 245.59 to complete wave ((iii)). Then a zigzag wave ((iv)) took place ended at 241.20 and last push in wave ((v)) of 3 finished at 247.97. Wave 4 has taken the form of an expanded flat. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 239.13 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 249.83. Expect wave ((c)) to end soon which also completes wave 4. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 223.90 low stays intact, expect Microsoft to extend higher 1 more leg to complete wave 5 of (C) and the whole flat correction as wave ((B)) before turning lower again.
Weekend Update: SPX Futures AnalysisENDING DIAGONAL BLACK EWT COUNT
My primary analysis is the SPX Futures have been mired in an overlapping decline that will conclude on an Ending Diagonal provided we head to new lows soon without breaching the 3928 level first. I will admit my primary analysis has come perilously close to invalidation (as is the nature of Diagonals). Additionally, my black ED path could have academic similarities with an overall ABC to conclude what I'm classifying as a cycle wave IV in a SC wave III. Allow me to make the case for my primary analysis first, then I'll discuss the alternatives.
The area where we get a major clue in the ES is a breach of 3590 which is displayed by the thick black line in the above chart. However, as you can see from the below Nasdaq Futures chart, that area has already been breached. The retracement has breached the .786% Fibonacci support area and looks poised to make a new low.
I do not analyze the NQ chart but in as much as the index looks similar to the ES structurally, it appears to be further along towards bottoming. The obvious question “Is NQ leading the ES...or vice versa”? Nonetheless, it is a clue we should take note of.
Also, the heavily weighted stock of Microsoft at 5% of the SP500 index has already breached its low and is almost complete from a pattern standpoint.
This is the same structure I am looking for in the SPX/ES to turn from bearish to bullish.
The chart of Apple has yet to strike that new low and is the largest component of the index. SO this bolsters my primary analytical point of view that regardless of what happens in near term, the SPX/ES is not complete in making its bottom despite what the financial news media may or may not report.
The below chart is the difference between the life of the Black count and Purple becoming my primary...and it boils down to a breach of 3928. Above 3928 and the ending diagonal count will be taken off the chart.
As of today, the SPX/ES has the opportunity to bottom quickly without interjecting more uncertainty. Whether it will do so or not remain to be seen. Nonetheless, it is my primary thesis that the index will head to new local lows and bottom this month.
CORRECTIVE RETRACEMENT PURPLE EWT COUNT
Below is the purple pathway and my secondary analysis of the path the ES Futures will take. If a breach of the 3928 level is to happen, this is the path price should take . I prefer a quick bottom as outlined in the black count but the purple count manages to do something I am in favor of when discussing stock market bottoms. It features a capitulation ending, only after getting its participants thoroughly confused. This is a slightly lower probability to the black count in my mind, but in truth statistically equal.
RED COUNT IMPULSIVE MOVE HIGHER, BULLS RUN WILD TO 5200-5500
The red count is my second alternative and structurally is valid but contains too many unknowns and therefore at this juncture maintains a shaky analytical foundation. First, it features a leading diagonal to start off the next bull run. Diagonals are declines or advances in which the trader sentiment is so UNDECIDED it makes for a choppy pattern that just frustrates participants. Diagonals are not reliable trading patterns and therefore it's hard for me to get behind this next bull run based on such feeble sentiment. Nonetheless, the red count is a 100% viable option within the rules of Elliott Wave and therefore I am including it.
The main difference between the red and purple count is where as the purple count concludes in the area of 1.0% to 1.236% Extension area, the red count surpasses that area in just the iii of 3-wave. The red count is an impulsive 5 wave structure that would complete as high as 4500-4600.
As an analyst all I can do is wait for the individual components of my analysis to eliminate themselves to finally arrive at a tradeable thesis. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE NO REASON TO ABANDON THE BLACK ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN FOR FINAL COMPLETION.
Best to all,
Chris