Microsoft (MSFT)
Where will MSFT go next? Just having fun......First time publisher and amateur trader..........
Its time for MSFT earnings and with the combination of inflation, global economies, ongoing wars, food shortages, recession fears, supply chain issues, new Covid mutants, and regular old P/E predictabilities, it seems like a crazy and unpredictable market, HOWEVER, its fun to play and pretend like I can guess price movement, so I decided to publish my first Idea about MSFT. Any comments or advice is welcome in good taste.
Lets pretend for a moment that we did hit some sort of bottom recently............
No Crystal Ball Here!
MSFT seems like they are distanced enough from the social media AD pressure + have enough diversity with Azure to dodge the computer sales impacts, BUT I think that the next big price movements will rely on good earnings with positive forecast (obviously). The 10:1 volume for buying last weekwas especially reassuring and I think MSFT will remain in an uptrend for the next couple of weeks. We are right at the 200 day moving average. There is
good resistance at $250 and $255 and I think that MSFT will try hard to stay above $250 no matter what. Part of BIG TECH, found in VALUE Etfs, doesn't
rely on advertising, and also has a near 1% DIVIDEND. I love MSFT these are my personal ideas.
These are just ideas and not professional advice or anything related to advice.
Safe trading.
Insiders Knew Something...(READ CAREFULLY)If you had watched Uber's chart in the past two weeks you have probably realized that it goes one day +5% the other day -5%, next day +4% and again -4% ....;
Experienced traders know that's a scary signal that indicates company is running out of money and is scrambling to survive with speculation !
This common phenomenon (+5%, -4%, +4%, -5% ...,) happens just few weeks prior to bankruptcy.
Speculation is because of no operating income...!!! Has lost more than 60% in the last year and is taking its last breaths.
MSFT Potential for bullish rise | 22th July 2022On the H4, with price breaking out of the descending channel and moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to buy entry at 268.32 where the swing high resistance is. Should price break buy entry on the upside, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to take profit at 278.25 where the swing high resistance, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 100% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price could drop to stop loss at 261.83 where the pullback support is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Technical AnalysisWe expect that the price will drop 240 in order to retest the support one more time and then we expect the price to rise. DMI indicates the buying opportunity. Divergence for many indicator also shows that 241.81 price level is buying opportunity.
Entry and target are shown in the chart.
Apple Double Topped?We may have seen Apple hit a double-top from May's high of $151, which we hit again today. With a week of earnings, including Apple's earnings on 28th, it could go anywhere. According to their guidance they expected a slowdown, lets see how this plays out for their price.
Per economic data, it fully supports a sell off but these big cap names is what is keeping the markets looking nice even though other stocks are down 90% like Carvana. The market doesn't really reflect the true state of the economy, because if it did, markets would be slashed in half.
Consumer sentiment, PPI, CPI, jobless claims are all worse than expected, but they like to act like we've hit bottom after a 14-year bull market rally.
MACD on the monthly is still very bearish. RSI has room to fall. But, lets see. Today, good news is good, bad news is good and in the face of $90 billion in buy-back from Apple, we can see Apple unrealistically going up.
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 19th July 2022On the H4, with prices moving within a bearish channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry at 261.48 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are to the take profit at 241.57 where the swing low support, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and rise to stop loss at 278.70 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection , -27.2% fibonacci expansion , -61.8% fibonacci expansion and swing high resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis of $MSFTIn this multi-timeframe analysis of Microsoft $MSFT we discuss the possibility of bullish price action in the month of August. Another leg lower to the 200ema on the weekly cannot be ruled out (~217), but if we break out of the descending wedge and above the 21 ema on the weekly, we can have upside targets of 283 and (in the event of a major bullish move into September) 307.
$SE $MSFT $SQ $SPY I OptionsSwing WatchlistSE 1D I SE recently broke out from a massive downtrend on the daily. It is making a double bottom near $65 and our OS ALGO picked up activity on the $69 strike!
MSFT 4H I MSFT is making a higher low as earnings approach. Resistance near $255 and our scanners are picking up significant bullish activity on the $260 strike for 07/22.
SQ 1D I SQ is down nearly 80% from all time high. It is trading within a wedge pattern on the hourly and based on unusual options activity SQ is likely to run up into earnings.
SPY 4H I SPY macrotrend remains bearish, however it recently broke out from a downtrend on the hourly. Resistance near $385, $400; and support near $380.
SPY WHATS NEXT??!!It appears the spy has found a landing zone, and may now be in the accumulation phase, Using the Wyckoff Accumulation method, I analyzed what may occur over the next few trading weeks. In the short term I believe SPY is bullish and looking to retrace to the .618 Fib resistance ($390) within a few days and eventually retracing the .786 fib ($400). After that Based on the wyckoff method, it may breakdown, given the marco-economics of the entire market being bearish , with alot of fear and uncertainty amid a recession on the horizon (if were not already), and the feds hawkish aim to control inflation , we may have a sell off that could lead below previous lows, as highlighted in the chart.
Strategy 1: buy $400 calls expiration 8-19-22
Sell: First Target price $390 followed by $400
Startegy 2: If SPY reaches $400, Buy PUT 21 days from expiration ideally strike of $390
Alternatively SPY could break over $400 and continue to rally and possibly reverse to the upside despite macro conditions.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor, I do not advise anyone to buy or sell anything, these are just my own ideas for my own use, trade at your own risk.
MICROSOFT Targeting $285 short-termMicrosoft (MSFT) is about to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 3rd time since June 27. A new break should be a confirmation of that being the new Lower High rebound. The previous targeted the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this is now over the Channel Down a little above 285.00.
We believe this might be the start to an even bigger and more sustainable rise as certain long-term indicators have been aligned on Support levels:
* First, the RSI on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows while the price action was on Lower Lows.
* Second, the 1W MACD inevitably will form a Bullish Cross, the first since October 27 2021.
* Third, the 1M MA30 (yellow trend-line) supported the previous Low, right on the Higher Lows trend-line that started back in September 18 2020.
As mentioned the 285.00 is just below the 0.618 Fib, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) might be by the time it tests it, for the ultimate Resistance test.
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MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 15th July 2022On the H4, with prices moving within a bearish channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry at 261.48 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are to the take profit at 241.57 where the swing low support, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and rise to stop loss at 278.70 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection , -27.2% fibonacci expansion , -61.8% fibonacci expansion and swing high resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Apple rebounding 1D Apple has rebounded on a maxi support ($ 125 - $ 140) which originated in August 2020 (as resistance) until July 2021 where the price passed $ 140.
It currently appears to anticipate the market by breaking a Falling Wedge with a rising low on a daily chart.
Now we can trace the first FIbonacci Extension which will designate precisely the extent of this bounce.
Apple is in a rebound phase even if it has to beat the 3 resistances in place (red rectangles).
However, it is too early to assess whether the bear market is over.
The market needs confirmation on the weekly chart and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Index still have a long way to go to be able to tell if the market has entered a bullish phase.
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MSFT Potential for bullish rise | 13th July 2022On the H4, with prices moving within a bearish channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry at 261.48 where the pullback resistance is to the take profit at 241.57 where the swing low support, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and rise to stop loss at 278.70 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection , -27.2% fibonacci expansion, -61.8% fibonacci expansion and swing high resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
MSFT Potential for bullish rise | 7th July 2022On the H4, with prices breaking out of a bearish channel and moving above an ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will drop and rise from the buy entry where the pullback support is to the take profit at 278.70 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection , -27.2% fibonacci expansion and swing high resistance. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and drop to stop loss at 241.57 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Potential for bullish rise | 7th July 2022On the H4, with prices breaking out of a bearish channel and moving above an ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will drop and rise from the buy entry where the pullback support is to the take profit at 278.70 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and swing high resistance. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and drop to stop loss at 241.57 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Microsoft (MSFT) Gaining Some StrengthHi Traders,
Microsoft seems to be gaining some strength. Could this be the start of a bullish move? Only time will tell. Price started creating an Inverse head and shoulders pattern which could be the first sign of a reversal. On the monthly, I have mapped out a level of 250.0 which is an order block that was never tested.
Price then proceeds to create the reversal pattern. We also see that we have now started breaking my descending trend line but it meets a previous resistance level. A break and close above this level is what captures my interest as this could give an easy move to upside upon a retest.
Keep in mind that we are still in a bear market and this could just be a pullback for the bearish continuation so I will be extremely aggressive in managing my position should I take one.
The key reason why I am optimistic is because the Pattern has created a lower high which could fuel the bulls to break the resistance of 168.95. this would also then create a new higher high. Very simple structural movement but yet very powerful in most markets. The next key play would be the pullback after the break which needs to form some sort of support and give signs of exhaustion to fuel another bullish leg.
The next point of interest in my radar will be 290.15 where I will look to take profit. As previously mentioned this is still a counter-trend move and that needs to remain at the back of the mind.
I hope this breakdown has been helpful and feel free to comment your thoughts on this analysis.
Best wishes,
Renaldo Philander.
Microsoft buying Activision in Q3?The end of Q2/H1 has heavily impacted the majority of stocks as we know. The announced takeover of Activision by Microsoft in my eyes has been put on hold due to the market downturn, pushing back into the second half of Q3 or even as late as mid Q4.
With the buyout suggest to be at US$95 i feel that the current price of US$78 is a good buy.
There is a lot of reasons for Microsoft to make this purchase so I dont think they are going to walk away because it was a bad quarter for everyone.
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 5th July 2022On the H4, with prices moving within a bearish channel and reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry where the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are to the take profit at 241.57 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and swing low support. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and rise to stop loss at 275.32 where the swing high resistance and 100% fibonacci projection are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.