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Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 29th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry at 260.94 where the pullback resistance is to the take profit at 241.57 in line with swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price could break entry structure and rise to stop loss at 275.32 where the 100% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
1
Selection is not dead - and who said Growth ever was?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Lithuania limited railway cargo transit across its territory from Russia to Kaliningrad; Russia dubbed the move as "openly hostile" Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest supplier of crude oil. Russian crude exports to China surged 55% in May Turkey, Sweden and Finland met to discuss Turkey's opposition to the Nordic countries bid to join NATO French President Emmanuel Macron lost parliamentary majority as the country's far-right regained momentum after the Presidential elections held last April European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned against the bloc's "backsliding" into coal as the continent tries to weave itself off Russian gas Terra/LUNA project staff were banned from flying as South Korean authorities deepen investigations on LUNA's demise PROFZERO'S TAKE It's hard to look at the EU without feeling something disruptive is about to happen. The bloc's inflation rate is not too far from that of the U.S. (8.1% vs. 8.6%, respectively) - yet the ECB's base rate, even after the 25bps hike earlier in June, is still negative by 25bps, while the Fed is already pricing cash at 150bps. The Fed has stopped sustaining fixed income markets by not rolling over USD 30bn Treasury bonds and USD 17.5bn MBS per month - the ECB tried to walk down the same path, only to face backlash from traders which sent interest rates on the weakest countries (Greece, Italy and Spain) to fresh highs. And as Russia curtails natural gas supplies, the countries that are most exposed to energy security - notably including Germany and Italy - scramble to diversify the energy mix, stumbling upon the harsh reality that coal will attract criticism from environmental groups (and voters) while LNG supplies need re-gasification plants - whose dearth won't be made up for until 2024. Nigel Bolton, BlackRock's co-Chief Investment Officer, said on June 20 he saw "extreme valuation opportunity in European banks". ProfZero would really, sincerely like to share the same optimism - or opportunism Speaking of Europe - after dismissing blockchain assets as "worth nothing" (and therefore badly needing regulation, in a rare moment of pure pneumatic vacuum of logics), ECB President Christine Lagarde said "While the correction in asset prices has so far been orderly, the risk of a further and possibly abrupt fall in asset prices remains severe". ProfZero concurs with Madame Lagarde - absent energy security and supply strategy, foggy monetary policy (to tighten or not to tighten?) and a much feared fragmentation of borrowing costs already happening, traders are having it good shorting European assets. If only there was a strong Regulator... In the opinion of ProfZero, the market-wise breadth of June 13's collapse has a deeper structural meaning, and could in fact contain cues on portfolio construction to cross summer season: (i) Markets are not done pricing a recession, nor the Fed's and the ECB monetary policy. After the 50bps rate hike on May 5, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 3.56% and 4.99%, respectively; after the 75bps rate increase on June 15, the indexes nosedived 3.27% and 4.08%, respectively. The Fed is meeting four more times this year; current expectations are for 75bps flat increases at each meeting. Should inflation fail to be absorbed in the economy, calling for more rate increases, equities would bear the brunt of the selloffs, (ii) Investors are starting to see Value as fairly priced - possibly signaling the beginning of reversal on commodity stocks, especially in the energy space. At the same time, Growth is not dead. Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped less than 5% on average in the last month, compared to almost 15% by Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Petrobras (PBR), and Shell (RDS.A), (iii) It is still too early to construct risk positions. A clear trough has not been touched and even a touted recession has not materialized. No clear industrial path has emerged from the bear market; and without such, longs are but reckless positions. No time to cry; no time to risk either
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 21th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry at 255.30 in line with the swing high resistance to the take profit at 231.18 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 261.47 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 17th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the sell entry at 246.92 in line with the pullback resistance to the take profit at 231.18 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 261.47 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 15th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the sell entry at 246.92 in line with the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 231.18 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and -27.2% fibonacci expansion . Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 261.47 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by FXCM
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 15th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the sell entry at 246.92 in line with the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 231.18 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and -27.2% fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 261.47 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
1
Radar recap before the breakoutPROFZERO'S TAKE - RADAR RECAP Ever since the very first edition of our daily Parlay, Profs have repeatedly cited their radar to keep track of ongoing macroeconomic developments and forming views. It's about time then for a first full-blown recap of what we are looking at right now, and how do we see the next steps moving: World politics: The war in Ukraine has reshaped European geopolitics, forcing the EU to rethink its entire energy supply and security policy off from Russia, other than bringing the continent back to reassessing the readiness of its armed forces. The blockade of the port of Odesa exacerbated supply-chain tensions that had been simmering since 2021, pushing commodity prices to all-time highs in energy and fertilizers and ushering the risk of famine and social unrest in the Middle East and Africa due to shortage of cereals and calories at large. Meanwhile, the relationships between the U.S. and China remain tense over Taiwan, as the island remains exposed to a potential Chinese invasion - Bearish Monetary policy: Central banks around the world have finally taken inflation seriously, launching interest rate hike and balance sheet trimming plans in an attempt to cool price surges and yet preserve growth and employment in the real economy. U.S. data in May were in fact supportive, with Main Street adding 390,000 jobs and keeping unemployment as low as 3.6%. Yet, the effects of higher interest rates are going to be felt only as they trickle down through the economy, in the form of costlier mortgages for homeowners and more expensive or altogether barred access to debt financing for sub-investment grade nations and corporates. As a result, defaults could sweep the economy, as already seen by the failure of Sri Lanka to pay its foreign-currency debt; the looming default of Russia; and the collapse back in 2021 of Chinese constructions giant Evergrande - Neutral Equities: The secular bull run hit by equities since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and fueled by loose monetary and fiscal policy on both shores of the Atlantic, hit a major stop in Q1 2022, when investors rushed to the door, spooked by the prospects of Regulators draining liquidity from the system. As a result, Nasdaq plunged 30% from peak (November 2021) to trough (April 2022), while S&P 500 only teetered on the brink of a bear market (negative 19.9% peak-to-trough). Investor fled Growth stocks whose profits are deep in the future, hence exposed to greater discounting by higher interest rates, favoring Value equities thanks to the solidity of their balance sheets and capacity to generate income via dividends. ProfZero argues that within the very Growth space, Value-like equities do already exists - tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) for instance is America's best-rated company (AAA/stable) - Neutral Commodities: After a lost decade, and crude oil trading even in negative price territory for one day in 2020 (April 20, WTI crude contract settling at negative 37.63/boe), commodities came back roaring in 2022, in what analysts at Goldman Sachs have already dubbed the beginning of a new supercycle. ProfZero concurs that commodities - and their supply chains - have been taken for granted for too long; now, in the wake of de-globalization talks, developed as well as emerging economies find themselves rattled by the prospects of unsustainably high - or even unaccessible - key commodities like fuel and fertilizers, or even worse calories. Thinking one step ahead, ProfOne has set its eyes on the minerals of the future - cobalt, lithium and nickel - reminding that these are also highly concentrated in a handful of areas around the globe, thus possibly falling into the same supply trap of the commodities of the past century - Bullish Blockchain assets: A unprecedented "crypto winter" has gripped investors in the blockchain space, first sending BTC from all-time at USD 68,990 in November 2021 to USD 25,350 on May 12, 2022 (63% peak-to-trough), then decreeing the collapse of Terra/LUNA project in just 3 days on the second week of May this year. Yet, the blockchain space is showing remarkable resilience, with BTC resisting further slides and in fact potentially preparing for a new "golden age", as foreseen by venture capital fund Andreesen Horowitz. ProfZero remains focused on the superiority of the blockchain as a technology, capable to shape the next decade in information processing, automotive, entertainment, finance and healthcare - Bullish
CME:BTC1!Long
by ProfZero
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 8th June 2022With RSI moving within a downtrend channel , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 246.88 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website. Disclaimer
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by FXCM
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 8th June 2022With RSI moving within a downtrend channel , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 246.88 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website. Disclaimer
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
1
Placed heavy short position on MSFT EODBased on the complexion of the market and weight of evidence of the market structure I continue to look for downward pressure. I will be in this position up to this Friday; however, may choose to exit within 1-2 days. Speaking of Friday: Friday, June 10th CPI Expectations. I'm expecting to see a 1.6% increase for the month of May, which will all but destroy the narrative by the Fed that inflation is coming down and the worst is behind us. Based on the M2 Money Supply and correlating that with money growth, GDP, and a new element total debt of the economy -- there is a tight correlation al the way back to the 1960's with these new formulations. CPI is understating by ~ 10% which means we "should" be seeing further price increases in price inflation. I do not believe we see the inflation peak until early 2023 where that would peak around 10.6%. I believe the Weight of the Evidence is Statistically on my side that we have not seen the end of price inflation. This might push that barrel price of oil up above the $135 a barrel and push gasoline prices even higher. The downward pressure goes for the high bets tech sector. If you go to the Facebook link (below and in my profile) you'll find some additional charts and annotations. In Bear Markets, the weight of the evidence is when the bulls are unable to maintain and sustain market sentiment when the markets gap-up and they fail to control the narrative.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by bsdvs23
Judgement Week for $SPX $SPY is Upon UsReally not sure what to expect, but the level of bearishness combined with a few gigantic stock splits ($AMZN splits Monday 6/6, $GOOGL 7/15, and $SHOP 6/22) could propel the marketing into the 4400 range. I believe that would be the MAXIMUM pain for bears, then continue down. Reasons for my bullish short tern outlook. 1. $AMZN stock spilt on 6/6 2. Incredible amount of PUTS across the bored leading to a sense of over hedging 3. TTM Squeeze on $SPX daily looks primed to rip towards the upside 4. WeBull comments section is super bearish. lol
SP:SPXLong
by Turkish_007
9
BTC trying to bounce back but a hurricane set to cool optimismINVESTMENT CONTEXT While OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production in the coming months, in a gesture of reconciliation to the U.S., it still remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer, will agree to further isolate economically Russia BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, sees inflation to remain high for "years" due to the persisting effects of supply shocks After raising interest rates on April 29, the Fed is now about to kick-off the plan to shrink its USD 8.9tn balance sheet U.S. corporate profits fell the most in two years in Q1 2022; in the past year, earnings at 620 companies (of the 3,000 listed entities) fell short of interest payments — well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces have seized a fifth of Ukraine, as the war passed the 100-day milestone Russia missed a USD 1.9mln payment, inching closer to a default that would trigger billions of CDS insurance contracts PROFZERO'S TAKE In a rollercoaster trading day, equities shook off pre-market losses to close deep into green territory. Traders are mildly attempting to restore risk-on attitude, even in the wake of Microsoft (MSFT) lowering fourth-quarter guidance for both revenue and earnings, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. ProfZero maintains its cool aplomb: while welcoming the prospective second straight green weekly candle, the overarching narrative still hasn't found sufficient grounding for a rebound to be called - war in Ukraine still has no clearly defined endgame, China has but started softly lifting COVID restrictions and this week showed inflation in Europe has not peaked yet. Hot summer ahead? Cruel summer, rather ProfZero is awaiting today's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data to see whether the real economy is keeping the upbeat tone much needed to absorb inflation; earlier indications point to slowing hiring activity coupled with companies vying for talent, even at considerably heftier wages. As shared on Step99 podcast on June 2, ProfZero reminds that the inflation equation simply can't be escaped: it's going to be paid either by companies in case they'll opt to internalize higher costs (including salaries), or by households through higher retail prices (United Nations, U.N., food price index surged 73.9% in May 2022 as compared to 2020) On June 2 Italy's natural gas distributor Snam announced it took over a 5-bcm strong regasification vessel from Golar LNG, as attempts to diversify energy supply in Europe gather pace. Other than the cost of energy itself, ProfZero is attentively looking at the freight market as a new source of possible bottlenecks: while pipelines from Russia allowed for seamless, low-cost primary transportation, the construction of brand-new seaborne supply chains will shift much market power into the hands of traders (Trafigura, Gunvor) and logistics middlemen. Speak of inflation - think of trading routes and supply-chain nodes, and you'll see who's behind it BTC testing again the high USD 30k bracket - or simply draining liquidity from altcoins? PROFONE's TAKE Following yesterday’s thoughts on lithium, ProfOne’s sees the very same pressures on nickel. The price of the metal used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries gained more than 50% since the beginning of 2022, including a one-day market rout on March 8 that sent prices up 250% intraday, and had the London Metals Exchange shut trading to contain credit risk . Some stainless steel factories in Europe already had to cut production (Acerinox) on stable supply concerns. Countries are looking for ways to substitute supplies from Russia, which produces a fifth of the world’s purest-grade nickel. Thus again on de-globalization talks: around 80% of the world’s nickel processing is based in China and 60% of the world’s nickel mines are Chinese owned. ProfZero and ProfOne are starting to wonder what actually was on the agenda at Davos just 10 days ago...
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero